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One and Done - FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Sony Michel Aug 20 2:10am ET

New England Patriots running back Sony Michel caught all 19 passes thrown his way during competitive practice drills on Monday. Michel is playing catch-up after missing the beginning of camp recovering from minor knee surgery but is already impressing the coaching staff. Michel was a fantastic rookie runner last season, rushing for 931 yards and six touchdowns. But he was a one-dimensional weapon, albeit a highly effective one in the red zone (ranking sixth in the NFL in red zone touches among running backs). If Michel can be trusted in the passing game, he could take his game to another level this season.

From RotoBaller

Jakobi Meyers Aug 20 1:20am ET

New England Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is making a serious case to break camp with the team and play a role in Week 1. Meyers has stood out countless times throughout camp, making catches all over the field. He has backed that up with six catches for 69 yards and two touchdowns in the first preseason game. Veteran Phillip Dorsett still is in the teams plans but has been banged up at times during practice sessions. The Patriots wide receiving room is in a state of flux, with players like Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman on the cusp of practicing for the first time all season. With key players playing catch-up, Meyers could play a role early on in the season for the Patriots.

From RotoBaller

Cody Kessler Aug 19 11:30pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Cody Kessler (concussion) has resumed practicing. He was the main backup to starter Carson Wentz after Nate Sudfeld (wrist) got hurt, but the Eagles signed Josh McCown after watching their two backups go down. McCown will serve as the primary backup once the season starts, and Kessler's likely only around until Sudfeld is able to return.

From RotoBaller

Mike Evans Aug 19 11:04pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (quadriceps) and running back Ronald Jones II (knee) both missed practice on Monday, putting their availability for the preseason game on Friday against the Browns into question. Head coach Bruce Arians said the injuries are nothing serious, and both players are day-to-day. Jones is expected to play Friday, but the team is less certain about Evans. Evans has yet to make a catch in the preseason so far. Barring setbacks, both players should be ready for Week 1. Evans is a WR1 in fantasy and should be even more valuable in head coach Bruce Arians' offense. Jones was a bust as a rookie but will have plenty of opportunities to become the team's lead back in 2019.

Charcandrick West Aug 19 11:04pm ET

Former Kansas City Chiefs running back Charcandrick West signed with the Indianapolis Colts on Monday after they moved recently signed running back D'Onta Foreman to Injured Reserve. Behind running backs Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack, there are some snaps available that West could capitalize on while fellow running back Jordan Wilkins is recovering from injury. West showed some flashes during his time with the Chiefs, and he will be fighting for a roster spot as camp winds down.

Aaron Rodgers Aug 19 10:40pm ET

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (back) returned to practice on Monday after being scratched as a precaution before the preseason game last Thursday against the Ravens due to back tightness. However, it's still uncertain if Rodgers will play in the preseason game Thursday against the Raiders in Canada. Head coach Matt LaFleur said Rodgers "looked pretty good today to me" on Monday. Even though he's learning a new offensive scheme, it's not necessary that Rodgers play in the remaining preseason games. There's obvious rebound potential for Rodgers and Green Bay's offense in 2019 under LaFleur. He's a top-five fantasy signal-caller.

From RotoBaller

Cam Newton Aug 19 10:30pm ET

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (shoulder) will make his preseason debut on Thursday against the Patriots, according to head coach Ron Rivera. It's unclear how much Newton will play in the contest. The 30-year-old is coming off a second straight offseason with right shoulder surgery, and reports out of training camp suggest he has a new throwing motion designed to take pressure and torque off his shoulder. Running back Christian McCaffrey, linebacker Luke Kuechly and tight end Greg Olsen will also play Thursday. Many will be down on Newton based on how his 2018 season ended, but he'll still have plenty of QB1 potential if he's healthy. Newton could be a value as a low-end QB1 this year.

From RotoBaller

Adrian Colbert Aug 19 10:23pm ET

Updating previous reports, San Francisco 49ers S Adrian Colbert (hamstring) and DE Damontre Moore (thumb) will not return to the preseason game Monday, Aug. 19, because of their injuries.

From TheHuddle

Adam Shaheen Aug 19 10:20pm ET

Chicago Bears tight end Adam Shaheen is still working his way up to full speed with three weeks until the regular season begins. The third-year tight end suffered a back injury early on in camp and has been slow to get back into the swing of things. Shaheen has excellent 50/50-ball talent and is a red zone threat but has struggled mightily staying healthy during his short career. The chances of Shaheen making an impact early on in the regular season are getting slimmer by the day.

From RotoBaller

Vance McDonald Aug 19 10:20pm ET

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Vance McDonald is dealing with an unknown ailment that head coach Mike Tomlin calls "day-to-day." While the coach didn't expand on details in his media presser, he didn't seem the slightest bit concerned about it saying, "he'll be fine." Likely just a stinger, it shouldn't keep McDonald out of the team's third preseason game on Sunday against the Titans. McDonald has been getting some serious fantasy hype amongst a relatively barren tight end position. His ADP has crept up and he is going as high as the seventh round in mock drafts. Granted he can stay healthy, he provides a nice mix of safety and upside, compared to guys going around him like Eric Ebron and David Njoku.

From RotoBaller

Drew Lock Aug 19 10:20pm ET

Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Drew Lock (hand) and rookie tight end Noah Fant (foot) were both injured in Monday's preseason game against the 49ers and are questionable to return. Lock went 7-for-12 for 40 yards before departing, while Fant caught two passes for seven yards on three targets. Both players will be instrumental to Denver's future, but it remains to be seen how much they'll play in their rookie seasons. Fant has the better chance to be fantasy relevant as Denver attempts to finally get some production from the tight end position. Lock could see some starts at some point if Joe Flacco falters. Both players are most attractive in dynasty/keeper formats in 2019. Stay tuned for more information on their respective injuries.

From RotoBaller

Derrius Guice Aug 19 10:10pm ET

Washington Redskins running back Derrius Guice (knee) is expected to play in the preseason game against the Falcons on Thursday, but it'll likely be his only preseason action, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Guice tore his ACL and missed his entire rookie season and had several setbacks along the way in his recovery. Washington would like Guice to see most of the backfield touches in his second year, but it remains to be seen if he'll be able to handle that kind of a workload. The 'Skins also have Adrian Peterson, Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, so they could choose to play it safe with the young back early in the year. Despite the risk, Guice is a worthy investment in the middle rounds.

From RotoBaller

Eddy Pineiro Aug 19 10:10pm ET

Chicago Bears kicker Eddy Pineiro will be the team's starting kicker for the final two preseason games after the team released Elliott Fry. Pineiro reportedly converted on 84 percent of his kicks during training camp while Fry kicked at an 81 percent clip. Pineiro is 3-for-4 through the first two preseason games and will handle all of the kicking duties to convince the team he should stick around for Week 1. The Bears do not appear to be committed to Pineiro at all at this time, so look for them to scour the league for available kickers after teams make their final cuts. The Bears kicking situation should be closely monitored all the way up to Week 1 of the 2019 season and avoided in fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Trey Burton Aug 19 10:10pm ET

Chicago Bears tight end Trey Burton is confident he will be ready to take on the Packers in Week 1 of the 2019 season. Burton is recovering from sports hernia surgery and has suffered some minor setbacks during training camp. The veteran tight end wasn't happy with his strength when he initially came back and took a week off to get his body right. Burton still has not practiced with the team but hopes to be out there with his teammates September 5 in Chicago. Burton's poor second half in 2018, combined with his current injury situation, pushes the talented tight end out of the top-8 among his position group in fantasy.

From RotoBaller

John Ross Aug 19 10:10pm ET

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said that wide receiver John Ross (hamstring) is set to start practicing as early as Sunday. Ross, 23, has blazing speed but has yet to put it all together in the NFL in his two seasons. Injuries continue to hamper him along the way. He had just 21 catches for 210 yards with seven touchdowns in 13 games last year. The upside remains evident, but most fantasy owners want to see more consistency before they take a chance on him. Consider him worth a late-round flier for receiver depth.

From RotoBaller

Ryan Succop Aug 19 10:00pm ET

Tennessee Titans kicker Ryan Succop passed his physical and was removed from the Physically Unable to Perform list on Monday. Succop should be ready for the regular season, barring any setbacks. The 32-year-old kicker is in his sixth year with the Titans. He made 26 of his 30 field goal tries last year (86.7 percent) and 28 of his 31 extra points. Succop is an adequate kicker, but Tennessee's run-first offense often stalls due to their lack of a consistent deep threat. Succop can be a decent bye-week filler when the time comes, but you can probably do better with your starting kicker.

From RotoBaller

Anthony Miller Aug 19 10:00pm ET

Chicago Bears wide receiver Anthony Miller is expected to be questionable to practice this week after injuring his ankle during a practice drill last week. The second-year receiver is also recovering from shoulder surgery, further complicating his possible availability for Week 1. Miller needs reps with quarterback Mitch Trubisky and is missing valuable time. He is not expected to see the field during the preseason but his fantasy value currently is tied to whether Miller is in lock-step with the offense right out of the gate in 2019. Miller has the potential to lead Bears receivers in fantasy points this season but health is a concern moving forward.

From RotoBaller

Cordarrelle Patterson Aug 19 10:00pm ET

Chicago Bears running back/wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is not expected to play in the Bears final two preseason games. Patterson signed with the Bears in the offseason and is expected to play multiple roles in the offense this season. The veteran is expected to return kicks, run deep routes and even pick up a few carries from the backfield. Patterson scored five total touchdowns (one rushing, one returning, three receiving) for the Patriots last season and is expected to be the focal point of some interesting play-calls this season. Patterson's fantasy value is tied to touchdowns but his lack of projected touches makes him unusable in most fantasy formats.

From RotoBaller

Riley Ridley Aug 19 9:50pm ET

Chicago Bears wide receiver Riley Ridley's professional debut was a success in the Bears second preseason game, catching three passes for 19 yards. But the rookie made positive plays on the field that don't show up in the stat sheet, leading Bears receivers in blocking efficiency during his 28 snaps played. Ridley looked smooth out of his breaks, a step in the right direction after the talented receiver hurt his hamstring early in camp. Rookie pass-catchers often struggle to make an impact right out of the gate so Ridley's value, at this time, is tied solely to dynasty and keeper leagues for the 2019 fantasy season.

From RotoBaller

Dan Bailey Aug 19 9:50pm ET

Minnesota Vikings kicker Dan Bailey only had a few chances on Sunday night but he made them count, knocking in a 24-yard field goal in the first quarter and an extra point in the third. Newcomer Kaare Vedvik was brought in for an extra point in the fourth quarter, and there's a non-zero chance that the Norway product is gunning for Bailey's job. It seems more likely that Vedvick will serve as the punter, but it's crucial for the Vikings to figure out their special teams situation as it has been a major issue during the Zimmer era. Bailey was a disappointing 21-for-28 (75%) last season - a far cry from his 86.6% career average on field goal attempts. He's currently being taken as the 17th kicker off the board. Keep an eye on this situation as we move through the preseason.

From RotoBaller