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Jeff's Mailbag: Week 10

Fri Nov 8 10:45am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

At running back, I have Carlos Hyde and Leonard Fournette on bye, which leads me with just these three: David Montgomery, LeSean McCoy or Kareem Hunt?

Neither McCoy or Hunt are even remotely good options and the waiver wire has next to nothing available.  Do I gamble big and roll the dice with Hunt or go with the (dare I say) safer choice with McCoy?  I feel like this is a "no brainer" to go with McCoy if we had a guarantee that he would get the touches.  The problem is that we don't for either player.

Wide receiver: Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Emmanuel Sanders, D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown or A.J. Green?

Beckham has a really tough assignment this week and hasn't been the player we're used to this year.  Metcalf is a beast, and I love him although San Francisco’s defense would be a true test.  And Brown has a tremendous matchup but he's "boom or bust.”

Adam

Adam: That is a tough call at running back between McCoy and Hunt. It is tough to recommend McCoy with him having fewer than 10 fantasy points four of five games. I might take a chance on Hunt for this week. I'm not sure his role but I would expect him to get near double-digit touches and some work in the passing game. I think he might be worth a shot with McCoy doing next to nothing lately.

If you start three, I like Jones, Sanders and Beckham in that order. I'm not huge on Metcalf this week despite his big showing last week. He has been a little touchdown dependent and I'm not sure he scores this week against the 49ers. And I love Brown's matchup this week but he hasn't topped 50-receiving yards since Week 2. 

I have Alvin Kamara and Chris Carson starting this week. Can you suggest a flex Devin Singletary, David Montgomery or Latavius Murray?

Michael 

Michael: I would go with Montgomery in a close call. He is finally getting more and more touches and become the clear lead back for the Bears. He has at least 17 touches two straight games. Montgomery gets the Lions this week, a team 27th against the run and allows 27 points per game. 

Who should I start: Josh Reynolds with Brandin Cooks out or Robby Anderson going against the defenseless Giants? Anderson has been so disappointing.  

Jim

Jim: I would go with Reynolds. The Jets are a mess right now and Anderson is doing next to nothing, having fewer than 45 yards five of six games. I just think he has limited upside in this offense. Reynolds is no sure thing but at least the Rams have success throwing the ball and Reynolds was targeted eight times his last game in an expanded role, which is encouraging.  

What is your take on Jay Ajayi? He keeps working out for teams and they keep NOT signing him. Even the Lions (!) for crying out loud. What am I missing?

Russ

Russ: That is a good question. I'm not sure what is going on with Ajayi. He is apparently healthy and ready to start playing again. I'm not at the workouts, though, so maybe he is lacking something right now, which is causing teams to pass on him. The Lions are a mess at running back and they didn't take a chance, so maybe something just isn't right with him. Who knows? 

Couple questions! T.J. Hockenson or Jason Witten for my tight end? Need two receivers from Tyler Boyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Josh Gordon, or Christian Kirk?

Greg

Greg: I would go with Witten. He isn't very exciting but has been very consistent. He is at least three receptions every game and had a season-high eight catches last week. Hockenson has been more bust than boom, so it is hard to recommend him over Witten right now. And I would go with Sanders and Boyd. Kirk has a dream matchup but his numbers just haven't been very consistent, so I give Boyd the slight edge over him. Boyd has been really consistent as the top target in this offense, having at least five receptions six of eight games. 

Regular points system. Start two: Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack or David Montgomery? 

My thoughts are Mack and Montgomery but Jones could have a good day. Plus, my league has extra points for running backs that receive touchdowns, so I’m conflicted not liking Chubb against Buffalo with Hunt coming back.

Wayne

Wayne: I like Chubb and Mack out of those options. I know Chubb's matchup is tough and Hunt is back this week, but he has been really solid much of the year while Montgomery is harder to trust. Montgomery has fewer than 70-rushing yards all but a game. I still think Chubb gets a good amount of work even with Hunt around and likely the goal-line work, so I would keep rolling with him.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Blake Jarwin Dec 6 12:20am ET

Dallas Cowboys tight end Blake Jarwin caught six passes in Week 14, gaining 50 yards. Jarwin was targeted seven times, finishing third on the team. Jarwin's usage this season has been very unpredictable, but he has shown the ability to play a decent game when given the chance. He could have more fantasy relevance next season if Jason Witten were to retire again.

From RotoBaller

Peyton Barber Dec 6 12:20am ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Peyton Barber rewarded fantasy owners who were brave enough to start him in Week 13, but a repeat of his two-touchdown performance, or even something close to it, is hard to envision heading into the first week of the fantasy playoffs. The Bucs backfield is a weekly guessing game with head coach Bruce Arians still refusing to commit to Barber or Ronald Jones. That makes it extremely hard to trust Barber, especially in a do-or-die situation for fantasy owners. Barber has a tough task on his hands regardless this week with the Indianapolis Colts coming to town. The Colts have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, with only one back going over the century mark on the ground. Barber is not a recommended start this week.

From RotoBaller

Jason Witten Dec 6 12:20am ET

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten caught five passes in Week 14, gaining 37 yards. It was a classic late-career Jason Witten game, where he caught most of the balls thrown his way right before falling to the ground. Witten saw seven targets, tied with fellow tight end Blake Jarwin for third on the team. Jarwin was able to come up with one more catch and gain 13 more yards, however. Witten has shown a consistent non-zero floor, which is at least something in the thoroughly empty fantasy position that is 2019 tight end, but he's been unable to establish any sort of ceiling in the meantime.

From RotoBaller

Brett Maher Dec 6 12:20am ET

Dallas Cowboys kicker Brett Maher, already leading the league in missed field goals, missed another one in a Week 14 loss to the Chicago Bears. Maher made all three of his extra points and did make a 31 yarder at the end of the fourth quarter. The Cowboys tried out kickers last week and might do a bit more of that this coming week. Maher may not be long for the Cowboys roster.

From RotoBaller

Michael Gallup Dec 6 12:10am ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup had a strong game in Week 14, catching six passes for 109 yards. He led the team in yardage and with the 10 targets thrown his way, and tied for the team lead with six catches. Gallup did a lot of work after the catch in this one, and was a touchdown away from an enormous game in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. He'll continue as a strong WR2 through Week 17.

From RotoBaller

Amari Cooper Dec 6 12:10am ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper scored a fourth quarter touchdown in a Week 14 loss to the Chicago Bears. Cooper caught six passes for 83 yards on a total of eight targets. Cooper's six catches tied for the team lead, and his was the only receiving touchdown of the night for Dallas. His score came on a nice 19-yard pass from Dak Prescott near the end of the fourth quarter. Cooper showed some signs of still working through the injuries that have limited him of late, but he was still able to get work done against a strong Chicago defense.

From RotoBaller

Randall Cobb Dec 6 12:10am ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Randall Cobb was targeted five times in Week 14, but was only able to come down with two catches. He gained a respectable 43 yards with the two catches, but in a game that he was predicted as a sneaky fantasy option, he ended up disappointing. While Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup were able to do their work on the field, Cobb fell behind and looks to be over his recent hot streak. He'll likely fall back into fantasy irrelevance in most standard leagues.

From RotoBaller

Dak Prescott Dec 6 12:00am ET

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott performed decently in fantasy terms in Week 14 despite losing to the Chicago Bears. Prescott attempted 49 passes, completing 27 of them for 334 yards and a touchdown. Prescott's only touchdown came on a 19-yard pass to Amari Cooper near the end of the fourth quarter. It wasn't a great performance in general from Prescott, but given a strong Bears Defense on the other side, things could certainly have been worse.

From RotoBaller

Ezekiel Elliott Dec 6 12:00am ET

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott scored two touchdowns on the ground in a Week 14 to the Chicago Bears. Elliott ran the ball 19 times, gaining 81 yards. He added two catches for 12 yards on five targets. Elliott stayed on the field the whole game with Tony Pollard (ankle) inactive. Elliott's first touchdown was a two-yard run in the first quarter, and his second was another two-yard run at the end of the third.

From RotoBaller

Darren Waller Dec 5 10:00pm ET

Oakland Raiders tight end Darren Waller broke out of a five-game drought in Week 13, recording his first 100-game since Week 7. He'll have a good opportunity to repeat his seven-catch performance from last week versus a Titans Defense that has allowed the seventh-most points to the TE position this season. They were burned by Jack Doyle (6/73/1) and Travis Kelce (7/75/1) in recent weeks, while Waller has remained the favored target of Derek Carr all season long. With Josh Jacobs questionable for Sunday's game, the offense may need to rely on the air attack to win this game, which would be excellent news for Waller owners. Treat the 26-year-old as a high-volume TE1 for Week 14.

From RotoBaller

Tyrell Williams Dec 5 9:50pm ET

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Tyrell Williams is coming off his worst game of the season (1/9/0), and his Week 14 matchup doesn't appear that encouraging either. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league (260.1 YPG), but have kept opposing WRs out of the end zone in five of their last seven contests. Quarterback Derek Carr has also struggled of late, which has limited Williams to five consecutive games without a score and no 100-yard games since Week 1. Treat the veteran as a WR4 as we enter the first week of fantasy playoffs.

From RotoBaller

Derek Carr Dec 5 9:30pm ET

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is coming off back-to-back underwhelming performances as the Tennessee Titans come to town for a pivotal matchup this weekend. With both teams in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, the Raiders will need Carr to improve on his recent play with Josh Jacobs questionable for this Sunday. The Titans give up the sixth-most passing yards in the league (260.1 YPG), but have only allowed opposing quarterbacks to reach 20+ fantasy points three times through 13 games. Carr has just two of these games to his credit this season, so the stars aren't exactly aligning for a big performance. With a 3:4 TD to INT ratio over his past four games, treat the veteran as a low-end QB2 for Week 14.

From RotoBaller

Gerald Everett Dec 5 8:40pm ET

Los Angeles Rams tight end Gerald Everett (knee) missed his second straight practice this week on Thursday. Everett is on his way to missing his second straight game unless he can return to practice on Friday. If you've been using Everett at the tight end spot, you need to look elsewhere in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Tyler Higbee filled in admirably in a great matchup against Arizona last weekend and went for over 100 yards and a touchdown. He'd be on the TE1/2 borderline again in Week 14 against the Seahawks on Sunday night if Everett misses another game.

From RotoBaller

New Orleans Saints Dec 5 8:10pm ET

The New Orleans Saints Defense will face off with Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14. The Saints are coming off an excellent Thanksgiving night performance where they recorded nine sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble. New Orleans may have trouble repeating this effort against the 49ers, considering they've allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. San Francisco also ranks 12th in adjusted sack rate and have given up the 10th-fewest sacks in the league. There are better options out there than New Orleans this week.

From RotoBaller

Wil Lutz Dec 5 7:20pm ET

New Orleans Saints kicker Wil Lutz will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14. Lutz is on fire, having made at least two field goals in four straight games and at least two extra points in three of the last four. San Francisco is a stingy defense that doesn't allow many trips to the red zone. Still, New Orleans should be able to get within Lutz's range several times this game. Stick with the hot hand and start him as a high-end kicking option this week.

From RotoBaller

Tony Pollard Dec 5 7:10pm ET

Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Tony Pollard (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night against the Bears. Pollard missed two days of practice this week, so he was on the wrong side of questionable to begin with. Ezekiel Elliott has been the bell-cow back all season, so Pollard, 22, has just 58 carries for 264 yards and one touchdown on the season in 11 games. He has no standalone fantasy value unless Zeke gets hurt. Elliott's fantasy outlook as an RB1 against Chicago will not change with Pollard inactive. Fullback Jamize Olawale will serve as Elliott's backup for this one.

From RotoBaller

Jared Cook Dec 5 7:10pm ET

New Orleans Saints tight end Jared Cook gets a tough Week 14 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The 32-year-old is on a roll, having surpassed 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Now he'll get to face the 49ers' league-best pass defense. It will be a very tough matchup for Cook, as the 49ers allow the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Still, his involvement in the offense lately, 6.5 targets per game in his last four, makes him start-worthy even against this defense. It's risky, but so are a lot of other streaming options at the tight end position.

From RotoBaller

JuJu Smith-Schuster Dec 5 5:40pm ET

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) missed his second straight practice this week on Thursday. Smith-Schuster is unlikely to play again this weekend against the Cardinals and could be sidelined again in Week 15 if his knee injury does not improve. In an offense now run by quarterback Devlin Hodges, Smith-Schuster won't be anything more than a low-upside WR3 if he's active during the fantasy playoffs. James Washington has become a WR3 in Smith-Schuster's absence, but a projected low target share doesn't bode well for his chances of helping fantasy owners. Diontae Johnson (illness), who returned to a full practice on Thursday, will be the No. 2 behind Washington.

From RotoBaller

Jamaal Williams Dec 5 4:50pm ET

Green Bay Packers running back Jamaal Williams (knee) and tight end Jimmy Graham (calf, wrist) were both limited in practice on Thursday. Williams is a new addition to the injury report for Week 14 against the Redskins, so we'll have to keep an eye on his status on Friday. Williams has maintained RB3 value for fantasy owners alongside Aaron Jones, but his status may be in doubt this weekend. Jones would have RB1 upside if he has this backfield all to himself in a great matchup. Graham should be able to play, but he's become an unattractive touchdown-dependent TE2 with a low target floor. He hasn't scored since Oct. 20 and has a combined four catches the last three games.

From RotoBaller

Deebo Samuel Dec 5 4:40pm ET

San Francisco 49ers running back Matt Breida (ankle) and wide receivers Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) are practicing in full on Thursday. Breida is the big one, as he hasn't played since Nov. 11 against the Seahawks. His return will make it hard to trust anyone in San Fran's backfield, which includes Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. Jeffery Wilson could be a healthy scratch with Breida back in Week 14 to face the Bills in a tough matchup. Samuel and Sanders are good to go as well. Samuel has become the better fantasy wideout over Sanders, but the rookie is still a boom/bust WR3 for fantasy owners in this run-first offense.

From RotoBaller