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Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Giorgio Tavecchio Aug 24 5:20pm ET

The Atlanta Falcons signed free-agent kicker Blair Walsh on Saturday. The 29-year-old is a former All-Pro that was taken by Minnesota in the sixth round in 2012. He hit 84.2 percent of his kicks in five years with the Vikings and was last with Seattle in 2017, where he made 72.4 percent of his kicks. Current kicker Giorgio Tavecchio has struggled this preseason, so Walsh will push him for the job as Week 1 approaches. Atlanta's kicker position could yield nice fantasy points in 2019, but this is a situation to avoid in fantasy until we have more clarity.

From RotoBaller

Kirk Cousins Aug 24 5:10pm ET

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins went 3-for-13 for 35 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions Saturday in the third preseason game. He was sacked twice and was pressured often in the outing. Cousins had multiple passes batted down at the line of scrimmage. The stat line looks ugly, but it shouldn't serve as much of a deterrence for taking Cousins as a low-end QB1 or as a quality backup. The upside isn't where it once was, but he's a relatively safe option for your fantasy squad.

From RotoBaller

Lance Kendricks Aug 24 5:10pm ET

New England Patriots tight end Lance Kendricks has been suspended for the first game of the regular season for violating the league's policy on substances of abuse. Kendricks wasn't in line to see much work for the Pats and could be cut now, so this doesn't move the fantasy needle at all. The 31-year-old caught 19 passes for 170 yards and one score over a full season with Green Bay last year. With Benjamin Watson also suspended to begin the season, Matt LaCosse is likely to be the primary pass-catcher in Week 1, but he'll be a deep DFS sleeper, at best.

From RotoBaller

Dalvin Cook Aug 24 5:00pm ET

Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook rushed twice for 88 yards and one touchdown in the third preseason game Saturday. On one of his rushes, he started left and cut back to the right, breaking tackles on his way to an 85-yard touchdown run. Cook is showing he's all the way back from his torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. He's a midrange RB1 that has the potential to be one of the best backs in the game.

From RotoBaller

Kyler Murray Aug 24 4:40pm ET

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray went 14-for-21 for 137 yards in the third preseason game Saturday. He didn't throw a touchdown or an interception, and he avoided taking a sack. He rushed four times for nine yards. The team has emphasized getting the ball out quickly with Murray, which hasn't led to many big gains. This dink-and-dunk approach limits his fantasy value in single-year formats. However, it could prove beneficial in the long run. Murray is an upside backup quarterback in fantasy, but he is a budding chip to have in dynasty formats.

From RotoBaller

KeeSean Johnson Aug 24 4:30pm ET

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Keesean Johnson caught all seven balls thrown to him in the third preseason game Saturday. He tallied 85 yards on the receptions for 12.1 yards per catch. He had five catches for 52 yards combined in the first two preseason games. This performance made a statement in his quest for the Cardinals' No. 3 receiver job. Johnson looks to be a value pick to target late in drafts, and his play could boost him into the WR4 category.

From RotoBaller

Jarrad Davis Aug 24 4:30pm ET

Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia said that linebacker Jarrad Davis (ankle) and center Frank Ragnow (knee) avoided season-ending injuries after getting hurt in the preseason game on Friday night against the Bills. It's great news, but both players could still be questionable to suit up in the regular season opener against the Cardinals in two weeks. Davis emerged as a solid inside presence for Detroit's defense last year, while Ragnow is an essential cog in the team's offensive line. You can avoid Detroit's defense/special teams unit in fantasy, though.

From RotoBaller

Cam Newton Aug 24 3:50pm ET

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (foot) got treatment for his mid-foot sprain on Saturday, but head coach Ron Rivera thinks Newton will be on the field "pretty soon." The Panthers are hopeful that Newton will be ready for Week 1 against the Rams, where Newton would be a QB1 option. Rivera added that he's "cautiously optimistic" that Newton will be practicing soon. "There really isn't any timetable, but we're going to do everything we can to make sure it's right and ready to roll,'' Rivera said. Kyle Allen, Will Grier and Taylor Heinicke are all splitting backup repetitions behind Newton, so it's anyone's guess who would start the regular season opener if Newton isn't ready. Allen has seen the first reps behind Newton most of the last two weeks but hasn't looked good. Newton's fantasy stock was already on the decline due to questions about his surgically-repaired right shoulder, so most owners probably aren't taking him as a QB1 now.

From RotoBaller

David Johnson Aug 24 3:50pm ET

Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson had nine carries for 34 yards and also caught both of his targets for seven yards in the passing game in Saturday's preseason game against the Vikings. Johnson should be able to bounce back in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense with rookie quarterback Kyler Murray leading the charge. The 27-year-old back is one of the more versatile runners in the game and is a top-five fantasy running back in 2019. The only question is whether Arizona's offensive line can improve enough to give him space to run.

From RotoBaller

Matt Prater Aug 24 3:40pm ET

Detroit Lions kicker Matt Prater went 2-for-2, including a 61-yard field goal, in the Lions 24-20 loss in Week 3 of the preseason against the Bills. The veteran kicker has been a consistent top-10 fantasy kicker throughout his career and shows no signs of slowing down. His ability to hit from 61 yards is an excellent sign, making him worth a draft pick in nearly all fantasy formats.

From RotoBaller

Robert Griffin III Aug 24 3:30pm ET

Baltimore Ravens backup quarterback Robert Griffin III (thumb) is on scheduled to be ready for Week 1, according to head coach John Harbaugh. Griffin injured his right thumb early in training camp and hasn't played in any preseason games. As long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy, which is a big if considering his propensity to scramble, RG3 will be holding the clipboard on game day. He'll only have fantasy intrigue in two-QB leagues if Jackson goes down with an injury.

From RotoBaller

Ed Dickson Aug 24 3:20pm ET

Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said that tight end Ed Dickson (knee) is "still aways away" from returning. The 32-year-old veteran won't be ready for Week 1 and wouldn't even be a fantasy target if he was. When healthy, Dickson will compete for playing time with Will Dissly and Nick Vannett. Dickson had only 12 receptions for 143 yards and three touchdowns in 10 games played in his first year with Seattle in 2018. He's gone over 500 yards receiving just once in his career, and that was back in 2011 with Baltimore.

From RotoBaller

Marvin Jones Aug 24 3:20pm ET

Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones (undisclosed) was able to play every snap with the first-string offense in the Lions third preseason matchup against the Bills. Jones was able to catch one ball on three targets for seven yards. This is a good sign, considering he was held out of last week's preseason matchup with what seemingly was the same injury. Jones should be in store for a productive season if he can remain healthy and is a WR2/3 option in nearly all formats.

From RotoBaller

Dexter Williams Aug 24 3:20pm ET

Green Bay Packers running back Tra Carson is ahead of rookie Dexter Williams on the depth chart because of his work in pass protection, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. Williams will have a chance to climb the depth chart as the season wears on, but to begin he's behind Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and Carson. He's strictly one to stash in dynasty/keeper leagues for now.

From RotoBaller

Bruce Arians Aug 24 2:30pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston was scrambling for his life most of the night in the preseason game against the Browns on Friday, but he managed to continue building chemistry with wide receiver Chris Godwin, hooking up with him four times for 52 yards. Winston finished 9-for-19 for 88 yards and a 60.9 passer rating. He scrambled well and didn't make bad decisions or risky throws, which is what he needs to cut out of his game in a contract year. Winston has all the things in place to have his best season to date in head coach Bruce Arians' offense, making him a low-end QB1/high-end backup for fantasy owners. Godwin should see heavy targets as well, making him a popular breakout candidate in 2019.

From RotoBaller

Blaine Gabbert Aug 24 2:10pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (shoulder) suffered a dislocated left shoulder in the preseason game on Friday night against the Browns, according to head coach Bruce Arians. It's unknown if Gabbert will need surgery. The quarterback was 4-for-5 for 33 yards before leaving the game. Ryan Griffin stepped in for Gabbert and will likely be Jameis Winston's backup as we head into the regular season. Rookie quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is still recovering from a hamstring injury.

From RotoBaller

Jarrad Davis Aug 24 2:10pm ET

Detroit Lions linebacker Jarrad Davis (ankle) suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter of Friday's preseason game against the Bills. He was carried off the field by trainers and carted to the locker room. He'll undergo an MRI exam on Saturday. Center Frank Ragnow (leg) was also taken to the locker room in the second quarter after suffering a right leg injury. Davis, 24, would be a big loss for Detroit's interior defense, as he's had over 90 tackles each of his first two seasons, including six sacks in 16 games in 2018. Ragnow's injury could make life more difficult for the Lions offensive line heading into the regular season.

From RotoBaller

Derek Carr Aug 24 2:00pm ET

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is possibly in the best situation of his career heading into the 2019 regular season. With an improved offensive line, a brand new pass-catching corps which includes Antonio Brown, and a first-round rookie running back to hand the ball off to, Carr has the recipe to break out this season. The 28-year-old is also making strides in his second year under head coach Jon Gruden and his system. He's looked much more comfortable in year two, and has shown more assertiveness in his throws with the playmakers around him who can help aid his fantasy ceiling. Carr is a solid late-round QB2 to target in two-quarterback leagues and may find value in certain matchups in single-quarterback leagues throughout the season.

From RotoBaller

Jack Doyle Aug 24 1:50pm ET

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jack Doyle (hip) spent the offseason recovering from a hip injury that cut his 2018 season short. He's played with the starters sparingly thus far, as he's registered just 13 snaps, and those may be the last preseason snaps that we see of him. He has looked good when he was out there, and his focus is now on maintaining his health for the regular season. Currently going in the 13th round, Doyle remains a sneaky option as a backup tight end to give you good production throughout the year.

From RotoBaller

Hunter Renfrow Aug 24 1:40pm ET

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow is poised for an impactful rookie season with the Silver and Black in 2019. As the starting slot receiver, Renfrow will provide another set of reliable hands for short yardage passes while the defense focuses their attention primarily on Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. The Clemson product was renowned for his catching prowess at the college level and has carried it over to the NFL so far through his first preseason. Quarterback Derek Carr and head coach Jon Gruden have both praised Renfrow for his sneaky ability to get open and haul in anything thrown his way. Until we see how significant his role will actually be in this offense he remains a dynasty stash, but could find value in PPR redraft leagues as the season progresses.

From RotoBaller