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Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Jamaal Williams Aug 21 5:00am ET

Green Bay Packers running back Jamaal Williams went through individual drills in a recent practice, behind projected starter Aaron Jones. Williams is clearly the backup for the Packers this season, and was able to be effective last season, but wasn't able to pop on film. Fantasy owners should consider him as a handcuff in later rounds, as injury to Jones would mean Williams would be given the reigns of the backfield, with rookie Dexter Williams having been inconsistent this offseason.

From RotoBaller

J'Mon Moore Aug 21 5:00am ET

Green Bay Packers wide receiver J'mon Moore has struggled in camp this season, especially with dropped passes. However, in recent practice session, he made one of the best plays of camp, making a diving catch from quarterback Tim Boyle, over the back of safety Natrell Jameson. Moore is currently buried on the depth chart behind a number of players including Jake Kumerow who looks to be the backup wide receiver for the team should any of the starting trio miss time in the season.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Jones Aug 21 4:50am ET

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is looking forward to getting into a preseason game. The Packers are due to play Oakland Raiders this week in preseason, and Jones is wanting to be involved, having been limited with a hamstring injury earlier in camp. Jones is widely considered to be the starting running back for the team, with Jamaal Williams being the backup for him. Jones was highly effective last season, averaging over 5.4 yards per carrying. If you are able to pick up Jones as your RB2 this draft season, then that would give you a significant advantage at the position for the season.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Aug 21 4:40am ET

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams made a pair of one-handed grabs during practice. Adams is an elite wide receiver and could finish top of the position in fantasy scoring. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers commented earlier in the season that Adams was more open than he thought, and should, therefore, be able to continue to get the healthy target share that he received last season. Fantasy owners in the first round should feel confident about adding him at the top of drafts.

From RotoBaller

Mason Crosby Aug 21 4:10am ET

Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby is holding off a strong challenge from Sam Ficken, who was claimed from waivers early in the offseason. Crosby has hit 16 of his 17 attempts in practice, and in the preseason matchups has hit all three of his kicks. However, Ficken who was in camp earlier, with the veteran missing time through injury, has connected on 28 of the 35 attempts he has taken on in practice. Whoever wins this battle in camp will have fantasy value in an offense that should score points this season.

From RotoBaller

Jake Kumerow Aug 21 3:50am ET

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jake Kumerow struggled in a recent practice with the team. Kumerow had a tough day, dropping two passes and wasn't able to catch the third ball from quarterback Aaron Rodgers along the sideline. Kumerow is still likely to be the next guy up should any of the initial starting receivers miss time in the season, having had an impressive training camp and showing in the preseason. Kumerow will not likely be drafted but could be a hot waiver pickup if there were any injuries to the starting wide receivers.

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Jimmy Graham Aug 21 3:40am ET

Green Bay Packers tight end Jimmy Graham missed practice with an injured finger, but he won't require surgery on it. Graham has been impressive in camp, after developing on his chemistry with starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, with Graham missing time through injury this gives rookie Jace Sternberger an opportunity to impress. Graham should be a good fantasy option in the later rounds of drafts, but if he continues to miss time through injury then that could change.

From RotoBaller

Jace Sternberger Aug 21 3:30am ET

Green Bay Packers tight end Jace Sternberger returned to practice, after missing several sessions due to the injury to his jaw he suffered in the open practice with the Houston Texans. Sternberger's return coincides with veteran Jimmy Graham being forced to miss practice with an injury to his finger. If Graham misses time, then Sternberger could be fantasy relevant at the start of the season, but once the veteran returns Sternberger is likely to be limited in games.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Aug 21 3:20am ET

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has returned to practice for a second straight day after missing time with back tightness. Rodgers is yet to take a competitive snap in the new Packers offense but could be available for the preseason game against the Oakland Raiders this week. Rodgers could end up being a great value in fantasy drafts this season, given the fall he suffered last season, but that hinges on his ability to get out on the field and put the new offense into action.

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Jared Goff Aug 21 1:00am ET

Despite earning two straight Pro Bowl nods and taking his team to the Super Bowl last year, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff is ranked as the No. 13 quarterback in the preseason by Pro Football Focus. For what it's worth RotoBaller has Goff ranked as the No. 9 fantasy signal caller entering the season. The 24-year-old has improved in each of his three seasons in the NFL and had 4,688 yards passing, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2018. However, Goff also took a career-high 33 sacks and was responsible for 21 total turnovers. He's in a great place in Sean McVay's offense with perhaps the best receiver trio (Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp) in the league, so don't be surprised if he improves upon last season if he makes better decisions more consistently.

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Matt Breida Aug 21 1:00am ET

San Francisco 49ers running back Matt Breida ran the ball once for four yards and caught one pass for no gain in his first preseason action on Monday night against the Broncos. Breida somehow managed to play in 14 games last year despite dealing with several nagging injuries along the way, and he led the team with 814 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 153 attempts. He also caught 27 passes for 261 yards and two more scores. The 24-year-old is versatile and tough, but he's also going to have to contend for touches with Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon, although McKinnon's injury this preseason is boosting Breida's fantasy stock as an RB3/flex type or handcuff for Coleman owners.

From RotoBaller

Robby Anderson Aug 21 12:50am ET

New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson is eager to prove in 2019 that he is more than just a deep threat, and the team expects him to run routes all over the field. "Hes going to run all types of routes: short, intermediate, and deep routes. Hes going to run the whole gamut," receivers coach Shawn Jefferson said. Anderson had three catches for 32 yards in the preseason game against the Falcons last Thursday and made multiple contested catches. The 26-year-old had 50 receptions for 752 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games in 2018, but don't be surprised if he has a career year in 2019 if quarterback Sam Darnold takes a second-year leap. He's not a bad target as a WR3 with WR2 upside around the eighth round of drafts.

From RotoBaller

Trent Taylor Aug 21 12:40am ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Trent Taylor (foot) could be back by Week 1. The oft-hobbled third-year player underwent foot surgery on August 10 with an expected rehab of 4-6 weeks, although head coach Kyle Shanahan believes he wont miss any regular season action. Limited by injuries, Taylor has tallied just 645 yards across his first two seasons but has been effective when healthy. Hes also a first down machine, moving the chains on 38 of 69 career grabs. Assuming a swift recovery, Taylor is locked as the Niners slot receiver and is a deep PPR play. If he endures any setbacks, rookie receiver Jalen Hurd and second-year man Richie James Jr. are beneficiaries.

From RotoBaller

Jakeem Grant Aug 21 12:20am ET

The Miami Dolphins agreed to a four-year extension with wide receiver/returner Jakeem Grant on Tuesday, sources told NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The sixth-round pick in 2016 was entering the final year of his rookie deal and was set to make $720,000 this year. While he doesn't really move the needle in fantasy as a wideout with Miami's QB situation unsettled, Grant is a special teams ace and has logged 59 punt returns and 58 kickoff returns in the last three seasons, including three returns for scores. He has 34 catches for 471 yards and four touchdowns in the last two seasons and should go undrafted in standard fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Raheem Mostert Aug 20 11:20pm ET

San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert tallied 58 yards and a touchdown on six carries along with two catches for 42 yards in Mondays preseason game against the Denver Broncos. Mostert was the most effective offensive player on the field and further made his case for a roster spot. As a special teams lifer, the fourth-year player got his first real opportunity in 2018, averaging 7.7 yards per carry on 34 attempts before suffering a season-ending forearm injury. With Jerick McKinnon (knee) experiencing a setback recovering from a torn ACL, Mostert will likely start the year backing up Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. Its conceivable Mostert will receive a handful of touches per game, but hes not currently a fantasy option.

From RotoBaller

Jerick McKinnon Aug 20 11:00pm ET

San Francisco 49ers running back Jerick McKinnon (knee) could return to individual drills this week, per head coach Kyle Shanahan. McKinnon received a platelet-rich plasma injection 17 days ago after dealing with knee soreness as he recovers from a torn ACL. While individual work is encouraging, he will not participate in team drills as the Niners remains cautious on his situation. McKinnons absence clears more opportunities for Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida, but also opens a window for Raheem Mostert, who played well in the teams second preseason game. Without a clear timetable on his return from a major injury, McKinnon should keep slipping on fantasy draft boards.

From RotoBaller

Marquise Goodwin Aug 20 10:50pm ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Marquise Goodwin played in all 11 snaps with the first team Monday against the Denver Broncos. With the offensive struggling, Goodwin did not record a stat but with a solid camp thus far, is still viewed as a starter. However, with receiver Dante Pettis hovering and rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd making flashy plays, Goodwins job security shouldnt be taken for granted. After popping for 962 yards in 2017, injuries limited the 28-year-old speedster to just 395 yards last season. While he appears to remain important to the Niners, Goodwin doesnt hold much fantasy value.

From RotoBaller

Deebo Samuel Aug 20 10:40pm ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel was not targeted but ripped a 45-yard run in Mondays preseason game against the Denver Broncos. After collecting 75 yards last Saturday, the rookie made another splash, nearly scoring on a third quarter reverse. Samuel was taken in the second round this past offseason and continues to port his impressive college resume and advanced metrics to the NFL. Currently on his way to securing a starting job, Samuel is gaining sleeper appeal as RotoBallers WR73 heading into drafts.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Hurd Aug 20 10:30pm ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jalen Hurd (back) played just eight snaps in Mondays preseason game against the Denver Broncos. This is a letdown after Hurd exploded for two touchdowns on five targets in his first game, but head coach Kyle Shanahan indicated Hurd dealt with back stiffness all week and was therefore limited. The 2019 third-round pick is a monstrous 65 and 226 pounds and could develop into a reliable red-zone threat. However, even with slot receiver Trent Taylor (foot) sidelined, Hurds playing time appears uncertain with Richie James Jr. still in the mix. Although the upside is undeniable, Hurd is a just a late round lottery ticket heading into fantasy drafts.

From RotoBaller

Dante Pettis Aug 20 10:20pm ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Dante Pettis went catchless in 11 snaps in Mondays preseason game against the Denver Broncos. Pettis action all came alongside starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo but he failed to record a stat as the signal-caller struggled in first game action since Week 3 of last season. Recent reports suggested that rookie receivers Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd are pushing Pettis for a starting job but hes still running alongside the ones. Pettis emerged as a solid second option to tight end George Kittle in 2018, ending the year with 359 yards and four scores in his final five games. However, with the teams investments in Samuels and Hurd this past draft, Pettis needs to continue ascending to secure his playing time. For now, Pettis looks safe as a backend WR2.

From RotoBaller