Guest of the League
Game of Thrones Est. 2018
FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Charcandrick West Aug 25 11:30am ET

Indianapolis Colts running back Charcandrick West was signed off the street, and, in the third preseason game against the Chicago Bears, he had 13 carries for 43 yards and one touchdown. He also added a little bit in the passing game with three catches for 27 yards. With running back D'Onta Foreman being recently waived, West may have grabbed the fourth running back spot if the team decides to keep that many.

From RotoBaller

Donte Moncrief Aug 25 11:00am ET

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Donte Moncrief is looking to make his case to become the team's second starting wide receiver and Sunday's third preseason game against the Titans will be a big factor in that decision. Moncrief caught one pass for eight yards in last week's game against the Chiefs, however, he coughed up that single touch. The 27-year-old is in his first year in Pittsburgh after catching 48 passes for 668 yards and three scores with Jacksonville last year. Moncrief is battling with James Washington for the second starting spot, but so far the reports are that the former has the edge even though Washington has played well this preseason. Moncrief has seen his ADP rise a bit recently, as high as into the seventh round according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

From RotoBaller

Ben Roethlisberger Aug 25 10:50am ET

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will open the team's third preseason game on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans. It will be the 37-year-old's first taste of the 2019 preseason. While there is no guarantee for how much he'll play in the game, it is likely that Roethlisberger will get two-or three drives, depending on the results. It is also a big question mark on who of Joshua Dobbs or Mason Rudolph will follow up Big Ben in the game. Head coach Mike Tomlin doesn't want fans and media to look into who plays and when, in regards to being Roethlisberger's backup. The Steelers' veteran signal caller is going around the 11th round of fantasy drafts and is a strong option for those who wait to draft their quarterback.

From RotoBaller

Matt Breida Aug 25 2:43am ET

San Francisco 49ers RB Matt Breida ran for 44 yards on seven carries and caught two passes for 31 yards and a touchdown in the team's third preseason game against the can say Chiefs on Saturday, Aug. 24.

Fantasy Spin: The fantasy community was quick to brush aside Breida after the 49ers signed Tevin Coleman, but the former is the same back he was last year when he averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 9.7 yards per catch. Breida looked like the better back in this one and could very well begin the season splitting touches with Coleman playing for a coach in Kyle Shanahan who usually gets good production from his running backs. The 24-year-old should be considered a strong RB3 option in fantasy drafts.

From TheHuddle

Rashaad Penny Aug 25 2:13am ET

Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny carried eight times for 22 yards and a touchdown and added three receptions for 15 yards in the team's third preseason game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday, Aug. 24.

Fantasy Spin: From an efficiency standpoint, it was easily Penny's best performance of the summer. However, he has done very little in exhibition play to put any heat on starter Chris Carson, who appears primed to push for 300 touches if he can stay healthy in Seattle's run-heavy attack. Penny's fantasy upside is immense if Carson misses time, but the second-year back may be little more than a flex option until he earns a more substantial role.

From TheHuddle

Deebo Samuel Aug 25 12:20am ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel caught two of three targets for 27 yards Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs. After two solid preseason games, Samuel had a relatively quiet evening. The second-round rookie has demonstrated electric upside and could be in-line for a meaningful role immediately in the Niners offense. With a stellar college resume and advanced skillset, Samuel deserves some sleeper love as RotoBallers WR73.

From RotoBaller

Dante Pettis Aug 25 12:10am ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Dante Pettis grabbed three balls on five targets for 36 yards Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs. Following two quiet games, Pettis was finally in the mix after he indicated he was playing explosive and consistent earlier this week. Despite being pushed by rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd (back), Pettis appears a lock to start heading into Week 1. After emerging as the second option to tight end George Kittle last season, Pettis is shaping up as a solid backend WR2.

From RotoBaller

Phillip Lindsay Aug 25 12:10am ET

Denver Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay did not take action on Saturday night in the Broncos preseason game versus the Los Angeles Rams. Lindsay is coming off of preseason week two where he took reps with the second team and the backs behind him looked lackluster. The 2nd-year back seems to have the starting job locked up in Denver going into the regular season as he looks to follow up a stellar rookie year.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Hurd Aug 25 12:10am ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jalen Hurd (back) did not play Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs. Hurd also sat out last Monday due to back tightness so two consecutive missed games is not a positive development. The 2019 third-round pick made noise with two touchdowns in the first preseason contest but has dealt with nagging injuries even before he was a Niner. Hurd has the size to be a legitimate red zone threat but his fantasy impact will be muted until he sees the field.

From RotoBaller

Brandon McManus Aug 25 12:10am ET

Denver Broncos kicker Brandon McManus continued what has been an impressive preseason, with a solid performance Saturday night against the Los Angeles Rams. The 6th-year kicker connected on both field-goal attempts on the night, with a long of 38 yards. McManus looks to keep his consistency going in 2019, surrounded by an improved roster from the 2018 season.

From RotoBaller

Matt Breida Aug 25 12:00am ET

San Francisco 49ers running back Matt Breida recorded nine touches for 75 yards and a touchdown Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs. Breida toted the rock seven times for 44 yards and added two catches for 31 yards including a 20-yard touchdown from Jimmy Garoppolo in the first quarter. While Breida will share snaps with Tevin Coleman this season, the third-year player has repeatedly proven he can make plays when he touches the ball. He should make a fine RB3/flex heading into 2019.

From RotoBaller

Sean Lee Aug 24 11:53pm ET

Dallas Cowboys LB Sean Lee (knee) said he knee was not ready to play in the preseason game against the Houston Texans Saturday, Aug. 24, but he still expects to be ready for Week 1 of the regular season.

From TheHuddle

Denzel Perryman Aug 24 11:53pm ET

Los Angeles Chargers LB Denzel Perryman (undisclosed) exited the preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks Saturday, Aug. 24.

From TheHuddle

Jimmy Garoppolo Aug 24 11:50pm ET

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo completed 14 of 20 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown in Saturdays victory against the Kansas City Chiefs. Garoppolo bounced back in a big way after an ugly game last Monday, finding running back Matt Breida for a 20-yard score in the first quarter. In his second game back from a torn ACL, the performance should qualm some alarmists in the Niner and fantasy communities about Garoppolos competency as a starter. However, hes still just a factor in two-quarterback leagues or a backup in standard formats.

From RotoBaller

Taco Charlton Aug 24 11:43pm ET

Dallas Cowboys DE Taco Charlton (ankle) said he may need an MRI to assess an injury to his ankle that suffered against the Houston Texans in the preseason Saturday, Aug. 24.

From TheHuddle

Trenton Cannon Aug 24 11:33pm ET

New York Jets RB Trenton Cannon rushed six times for a team-high 51 yards and caught three passes for 28 yards in a 28-13 preseason loss to the New Orleans Saints Saturday, Aug. 24.

From TheHuddle

Robby Anderson Aug 24 11:23pm ET

New York Jets WR Robby Anderson had two catches for 60 yards, including a 41-yard reception, in a 28-13 preseason loss to the New Orleans Saints Saturday, Aug. 24.

Fantasy Spin: Anderson and Sam Darnold started to find a rhythm towards the end of last season, and if they can continue to hook up on deep balls, Anderson will have no trouble delivering WR3 numbers overall with WR2 upside certain weeks.

From TheHuddle

Michael Thomas Aug 24 11:23pm ET

New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas caught two passes for 39 yards and a touchdown in a 28-13 preseason win over the New York Jets Saturday, Aug. 24.

Fantasy Spin: Not that it should come as a surprise, but Thomas and Drew Brees were on the same page and connected on the early score. Thomas owns the record for most receptions through his first three seasons, and another year of WR1 production should be on tap.

From TheHuddle

Jordan Thomas Aug 24 11:20pm ET

Houston Texans tight end Jordan Thomas was targeted six times in Houston's preseason loss to the Dallas Cowboys, grabbing two of those targets for a team-high 33 yards. It was a rough night for the Texans, who failed to reach 100 passing yards, but Thomas was the tiniest sliver of a bright spot. He still has a chance to beat out Jordan Akins for the starting tight end job, though the word "starting" isn't likely to mean much as Akins, Thomas, and veteran Darren Fells will all rotate in and out, with rookie Kahale Warring expected to play a small role if healthy. Thomas has potential in fantasy leagues, but if Houston plays all of their tight ends, it'll be hard to see a path for Thomas to consistent fantasy relevance.

From RotoBaller

Damien Williams Aug 24 11:13pm ET

Kansas City Chiefs RB Damien Williams had one carry for two yards and caught three passes for 74 yards and a touchdown in a 27-17 preseason loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

Fantasy Spin: Williams has taken some heat from the coaching staff while dealing with injuries this offseason, but he is still expected to be the starting back for one of the top offenses in the league. At worst, he should deliver RB2 production.

From TheHuddle