Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The Seattle Seahawks selected Michigan tight end AJ Barner with the No. 121 overall pick in the fourth round on Saturday in the 2024 NFL draft. Barner is a mountain of a man at 6-foot-6, but his lack of production in four seasons at Indiana and Michigan (64 catches, 610 yards, five touchdowns) leaves a lot to be desired as he moves to the next level. The 21-year-old also isn't extremely athletic, but he'll have some opportunity in Seattle to make a name for himself as he starts out behind Noah Fant and Pharaoh Brown on the tight end depth chart in his rookie season in 2024. Fantasy managers should only consider Barner as a developmental prospect in deep rookie-only drafts this fall.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins selected Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright to help beef up their RB room in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday at pick No. 120. Wright, who ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine, adds even more blazing speed to Miami's backfield alongside Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The 21-year-old isn't going to have much of a role in 2024 as long as both Mostert and Achane stay healthy, but it's a good long-term fit for those in dynasty/keeper leagues. Wright will see touches in his rookie season as the Dolphins look to manage the workloads of both Mostert and Achane, but it's not going to be enough to warrant attention in single-season leagues. He stands at 5-foot-11, 210 pounds.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals selected Iowa tight end Erick All with the No. 115 overall selection in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. All will join a tight end corps in Cincinnati that already includes newcomer Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample. All led Iowa in receiving yards (299) and touchdowns (three) last year despite missing half of the year due to a torn ACL. He also had spinal surgery in 2022, so there is a real injury concern with All at the next level. When he's healthy, though, he's an intriguing tight end prospect for a Bengals team that lacks any real big-name player at the position. Even if All is healthy in his rookie year in 2024, it's hard to envision him becoming a major player in an offense that already has plenty of mouths to feed.
From RotoBaller
The Baltimore Ravens selected North Carolina wide receiver Devontez Walker with the No. 113 overall pick on Saturday in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft. Walker was highly productive at Kent State before eventually transferring to play for the Tar Heels and with quarterback Drake Maye, who went third overall to the Patriots in the first round on Thursday. The 22-year-old ended up playing in only eight games in 2023, but he still led the team in touchdowns. His 4.36-second 40-yard dash speed will make him a threat deep down the field at the NFL level, although he's unlikely to make a big impact right away for a run-first Ravens team that already has receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman as their top two options, not to mention tight end Mark Andrews.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants selected Penn State tight end Theo Johnson with the No. 107 overall pick in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. This pick makes a lot of sense with the Giants still unsure if Darren Waller will hang up his cleats. The 23-year-old Johnson is extremely athletic with plenty of speed to spare despite standing at a monstrous 6-foot-6 and 259 pounds. In his final year with the Nittany Lions in 2023, he had seven touchdowns, although it came on just 34 receptions and 341 yards. Even if Waller decides to retire, Johnson may have an uphill battle to climb to reach any kind of fantasy relevance in single-year leagues with Daniel Bellinger still around. At best, he'll probably be a red-zone weapon for quarterback Daniel Jones.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots continue to try and beef up their receiving corps for new franchise quarterback Drake Maye, taking Central Florida wide receiver Javon Baker with the 110th overall pick in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. The Pats also added wideout Ja'Lynn Polk with the 34th overall pick early in the second round on Friday. Before starring at Central Florida, the 22-year-old spent two years trying to make a name for himself at Alabama before eventually transferring. He showed his big-play abilities when he finally got playing time at Central Florida, catching 108 passes for 1,936 yards and 12 touchdowns in the last two seasons. Baker will have to overcome his mediocre speed at the NFL level and will merely be a receiver project for a team looking for players to step up at the position.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers exercised the 2025 fifth-year option on left tackle Rashawn Slater on Saturday, according to a source. Slater and Joe Alt, the No. 5 overall pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night, will now bookend the team's offensive line for quarterback Justin Herbert going forward. This one comes as no surprise as new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman look to shore up the team's offensive line with a new emphasis on the ground game in 2024 and beyond. Slater graded out as Pro Football Focus' fourth-best pass-blocking offensive lineman on Herbert's blind side. The addition of Alt to the right side should only strengthen Herbert's protection while also being good news for LA's ground game.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers selected Texas tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders with the 101st overall pick to start the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. This appears to be a pretty good value pick as tight ends begin to come off the board in the fourth round. The 21-year-old Sanders was considered one of this year's best prospects at the position and will now join Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas at the tight end position in Carolina to give second-year quarterback Bryce Young some more help. Tremble and Thomas are more of the blocking variety, so Sanders could have an impact on offense in his rookie year in 2024 after posting the fourth-most receiving yards after the catch in college last year. Still, in an offense that looked awful in 2023, we'd be surprised if Sanders is on the fantasy radar in redraft leagues in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos traded up to the No. 102 spot with the Seattle Seahawks to select Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin in the fourth round of this year's draft. Franklin now reunites with his former quarterback, Bo Nix, who the Broncos selected on Thursday evening with the 12th overall pick. Franklin has elite speed and can easily create separation from the defense. The 21-year-old has excellent YAC ability and should be considered an explosive playmaker. Franklin totaled 1,383 receiving yards and 14 scores on 81 catches last year. Franklin joins a wide receiver room in Denver that finished towards the bottom in total receiving yards last season, which could open the door for him to contribute immediately in fantasy. He should slot behind veteran Courtland Sutton at the start of the season but could easily carve out a role, making him viable in redraft formats. Franklin should be a popular second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Tampa Bay Bucs drafted wide receiver Jalen McMillan with the 92nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: McMillan slipped all the way down to the late third round and that wasn't a huge shock based on the sheer number of wide receivers available this year. Tampa Bay is pretty set with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for the short-term but McMillan and Trey Palmer could be the future at some point. McMillan will compete for slot duties early on and looks like a mid-round pick with upside in rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders drafted Rice wide receiver Luke McCaffrey with the 100th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: McCaffrey will have a chance to carve out some playing time behind the likes of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson but has a tough hill to climb. The former quarterback (and very famous relative of other McCaffrey footballers) is a solid athlete but is still inexperienced at the position. Still, the draft capital is there and he should be a pretty solid dart throw in the middle rounds of rookie drafts this year.
Dynasty | The Panthers traded up in the second round to select Texas running back Jonathon Brooks. Dynasty Analysis: It's a good landing spot for Brooks, who looks like a player who has a skillset of a premier running back in the NFL. He'll need to get healthy and return from a late season ACL tear but the Panthers are likely playing the long game here. With Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders not doing much to impress, it's hard to see Brooks not grabbing the top spot on the depth chart as soon as his knee will cooperate. Dynasty managers are also going to need to exhibit some patience here with Brooks as well but he still looks like a late first round rookie pick.
Dynasty | With the early selection of RB Jonathon Brooks (in a trade up, no less), the Panthers seem to have consolidated their backfield. Dynasty Analysis: Both Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard will have a little more time in the sun as Brooks rehabs his torn ACL and gets back into playing shape. But make no mistake, the move to draft Brooks signals an intention in Carolina to feature him in the running game. Sanders will be in the most peril, considering his cap hit, but both backs could be cap casualties and, in the meantime, will serve as backups to Brooks once he is healthy.
Dynasty | The Colts drafted wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the 52nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Mitchell lasted a little longer than most expected but landed on his feet when he was taken by the Colts with the 52nd overall pick. He'll compete with players like Josh Downs and Alec Pierce for targets behind Michael Pittman. Ultimately, his dynasty value is going to hinge on the health and development of quarterback Anthony Richardson. His fall, along with some uncertainty about his place in the offense is likely going to push him down into round two of most rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The second round selection of WR Adonai Mitchell gives the Colts' franchise QB yet another explosive weapon. Dynasty Analysis: In a drastically shortened rookie campaign, Richardson gave dynasty players a tantalizing glimpse of his playmaking abilities. His obvious strength was in the running game, but after several injuries and an early end to his season, the goal will be to keep him in the pocket and help him get comfortable standing tall and throwing downfield. Adding Mitchell to an already stocked supporting cast of WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, as well as RB Jonathan Taylor, should give Richardson all the weaponry he needs to outperform his QB8 dynasty ranking and join the top three conversation.
Dynasty | Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott was taken in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Washington Commanders. Dynasty Analysis: Sinnott was surprisingly taken in the second round of the NFL Draft by the tight end-needy Washington Commanders. It's a surprising development as most thought Sinnott wasn't going to be taken until day three. The draft capital used combined with the fact he was the sercond tight end taken overall is going to vault Sinnott up rookie draft boards. While he could be taken a little too highly, Washington was a premier draft spot for a tight end and that can't be ignored.
Dynasty | The New York Jets drafted Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley early in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: He should slot in nicely behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams and be allowed to come along rather slowly. Corley is a bit of a project but his ceiling is tantalizing. Aaron Rodgers has been notoriously tough on rookie receivers, so some patience may need to be used here. However, Corley still looks like a pretty solid pick in the late second or early third round of a rookie draft. He's a small school prospect but has some pretty impressive tape out there so he could be a steal in the end.
Dynasty | The Arizona Cardinals drafted Florida State running back Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Benson was snapped up with the 66th overall selection. It's a solid landing spot for the former Seminole who will presumably pair with James Conner in a new-look backfield in the desert in the short-term. However, Conner's injury history and age is going to likely pave a quick path to a true starting job for Benson sooner rather than later. While he may not reach his potential for a year or two, Benson looks like a very solid pick right around the round 1/2 turn in rookie drafts.
Dynasty | With the early third round selection of RB Trey Benson, the Cardinals prepare for life after James Conner. Dynasty Analysis: Benson was widely regarded as a top two RB in the rookie class, and could prove to be a steal in the third round. But it isn't the type of draft capital that commands an immediate workload. Dynasty managers can expect a dip in Conner's dynasty value long-term; a dip that was coming for the 28 year-old anyways. But the short term value should get a bump as Conner takes on a full workload with Benson's fresh legs waiting patiently until the wheels fall off for Conner.
Dynasty | The Bengals drafted Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Burton was a surprise pick of the Bengals at #80 overall. While he's currently buried on the depth chart, there's a chance he can grow into real relevance if Tee Higgins eventually gets moved. Burton is a project but one with a pretty solid landing spot as he's now paired with Joe Burrow. Alabama receivers obviously have a solid track record in the NFL and Burton was once a highly though of prospect. Perhaps we have a diamond in the rough here with a late round rookie pick.
