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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Kyle Rudolph Aug 19 6:50pm ET

Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph didn't play much on Sunday, but he managed to reel in his only target for a gain of 11 yards in the first quarter. Rudolph was out-shined by rookie Irv Smith Jr. in this game (five catches for 28 yards and a touchdown), but we need to remember to be cautious when interpreting preseason results. Rudolph is still the top option for the Vikings at tight end, and that's a notion that was further solidified when the Vikes re-signed him to a four-year deal this offseason. This deal felt a bit undeserved with Rudolph's uninspiring 2018, where he caught 64-of-82 targets for 634 yards and four touchdowns. That being said, he still has the lead role in what should be a productive offense and his touchdown rate projects to rise a bit from last year. Rudolph is worth a look as a TE2 flyer who you can snag at the end of your draft - he's currently being selected at 143 overall (TE14).

From RotoBaller

Stefon Diggs Aug 19 6:40pm ET

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs saw limited action on Sunday night against the Seattle Seahawks, hauling in his one target for six receiving yards in the contest. The lack of target share in the offense is not a concern for Diggs - he finished with 149 targets (just four behind Adam Thielen) to go along with his 1,021 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2018. He's currently being drafted at 35 overall (WR14), and that seems about right considering he and Thielen will again command the majority of targets and red-zone looks this season. Look for the "Minneapolis Miracle" hero to play a bit more in preseason game number three.

From RotoBaller

Derrick Jones Aug 19 5:53pm ET

The Houston Texans signed free agent CB Derrick Jones Monday, Aug. 19. WR Stephen Louis was waived.

From TheHuddle

Travis Kelce Aug 19 5:50pm ET

Kelce caught just one pass for five yards against the Steelers in week two of the preseason. The slippery field conditions limited the Chiefs starters to just one drive, so we didnt get much of a taste. Kelce remains the top TE in fantasy and should be getting drafted in the first round.

From RotoBaller

Julian Edelman Aug 19 5:43pm ET

Updating a previous story, New England Patriots WR Julian Edelman (thumb) has been activated from the Non-Football Injury list, according to a source.

Fantasy Spin: This allows fantasy managers to comfortably draft Edelman as a WR2 in the middle of the fourth round in standard leagues. His ADP rises slightly in PPR formats. He's expected to lead a group including Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, rookie N'Keal Harry and training camp standout Jakobi Meyers.

From TheHuddle

Tyreek Hill Aug 19 5:40pm ET

Tyreek Hill caught just one pass for six yards against the Steelers in week two of the preseason. The Chiefs starters were expected to play more, but the field conditions limited them to just a drive. Hill remains a solid WR1 and can be safely drafted in the second round. Carry on.

From RotoBaller

Jimmy Graham Aug 19 4:53pm ET

Green Bay Packers TE Jimmy Graham (finger) doesn't need surgery, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. Graham will 'be all right,' said LaFleur.

Fantasy Spin: Graham remains a fringe TE1 with the expectation of a full 16-game season.

From TheHuddle

Cam Newton Aug 19 4:43pm ET

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton and RB Christian McCaffrey are scheduled to play with the rest of the team's starters in Thursday, Aug. 22's preseason game against the New England Patriots. 'They've been the gold standard for a long time,'' head coach Ron Rivera said. 'You want to go out and see just how good you are. It is a good measuring stick as to who we can be as a football team.''

Fantasy Spin: Newton and McCaffrey are solidified as a QB1 and RB1, respectively. It'll be interesting to see Newton working with free-agent addition WR Chris Hogan and training camp standout WR Curtis Samuel.

From TheHuddle

Tashaun Gipson Aug 19 4:43pm ET

Houston Texans C Nick Martin (hamstring), DB A.J. Moore (undisclosed), CB Lonnie Johnson (undisclosed) and DL Carlos Watkins (undisclosed) returned to practice Monday, Aug. 19. S Justin Reid (undisclosed) and S Tashaun Gipson (undisclosed) didn't participate.

From TheHuddle

Jonnu Smith Aug 19 4:00pm ET

Tennessee Titans tight end Jonnu Smith (knee) returned to practice Monday for the first time since he tore his MCL in Week 14 of the 2018 season. Smith, who was filling in for injured tight end Delanie Walker, delivered 214 yards and three touchdowns in his final 5 games of 2018 leading up to his injury. With Walker now recovered, expect Smith to return to his limited role as the team's second tight end. While Smith is unlikely to have enough opportunity to be relevant this season, he remains a solid dynasty stash with Walker's best years likely behind him.

From RotoBaller

D'Onta Foreman Aug 19 3:53pm ET

Indianapolis Colts RB D'Onta Foreman (biceps) will remain with the team while rehabbing torn biceps. He's expected to miss four months but the team intends to keep him for next year.

From TheHuddle

Demarcus Lawrence Aug 19 3:53pm ET

Dallas Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence (shoulder) is expected to be activated from the Physically Unable to Perform list soon. He's expected to be limited for a little while, but he's on track to return in time for Week 1.

From TheHuddle

Derrick Henry Aug 19 3:50pm ET

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (calf) returned to practice today for the first time since the opening day of training camp. Although his Week 1 status was never in serious question, this is a good sign for Henry's 2019 fantasy stock. Henry will slide right back in as the feature back for new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's offense entering his make-or-break contract year. Henry continues to be one of the most polarizing players for the 2019 fantasy season, but only time will tell if we are to get the Henry from the last four games of the regular season or the Henry from the first twelve. In reality, his upside will likely depend majorly on the ability of quarterback Marcus Mariota to produce more consistently in the passing game.

From RotoBaller

Derrick Henry Aug 19 3:43pm ET

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry (foot) returned to practice Monday, Aug. 19. It's his first practice since Day 1 of training camp.

Fantasy Spin: Henry is suddenly a strong value as an RB2 at the end of the third round. He has long struggled with consistent production over the course of a full season, but he dominated at the end of the 2018 season and has the added incentive of a contract year. His ADP is likely to rise quickly now that he's back on the field.

From TheHuddle

Russell Wilson Aug 19 3:40pm ET

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson took the field for the first time this season on Sunday, and he looked good against the Vikings. Wilson went 6-for-9 for 82 yards, and he just missed a big third down completion that would have padded those stats even more. An especially nice thing was the fact that Wilson went virtually untouched in the pocket, and while it's just the preseason, any positive that can be found in Seattle's offensive line is worth a mention. Wilson is a knock quantity at this point, and if his offensive line can give him more time in the pocket, he could easily be in the discussion for MVP as the season rolls on.

From RotoBaller

Derrius Guice Aug 19 3:33pm ET

Washington Redskins RB Derrius Guice (knee) is scheduled to play Thursday, Aug. 22, in a preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons. It's likely to be his only action of the preseason.

Fantasy Spin: Guice didn't play at all in his rookie season after being selected in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He's being drafted as an RB3 on average, but he's likely to open the season behind veteran Adrian Peterson in the Washington backfield. He has more value in keeper and dynasty leagues, as he may need to wait another full season before leading the backfield.

From TheHuddle

D.K. Metcalf Aug 19 3:30pm ET

Seattle Seahawks rookie wide receiver D.K. Metcalf is scheduled to have knee surgery on Tuesday, and his presence for the start of the season is now in jeopardy. Metcalf's injury was discovered last week in practice, but head coach Pete Carroll declined to go into specifics about the injury or the circumstances surrounding it. It isn't believed to be terribly serious since Carroll's already talking about how the team is optimistic that Metcalf will be back for the regular season opener, but for a player who depends on speed like Metcalf, that seems questionable. For now, he's at least out for the rest of the preseason, not a great thing for a rookie.

From RotoBaller

Bobby Wagner Aug 19 3:30pm ET

Seattle Seahawks rookie safety Marquise Blair was carted off the field in the third quarter of Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings after suffering back spasms. Blair had been hyped coming into the game, but he was beat for a touchdown in the first half and eventually left with the injury. At this point, it's unclear how serious the injury is or how much time Blair will miss, but it's just another shot at Seattle's rookie class after first-round pick L.J. Collier has been sidelined with a high ankle sprain as well. With Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, and Shaquem Griffin also recovering from injuries, Seattle's defense is taking a serious beating to start the season.

From RotoBaller

Reshad Jones Aug 19 3:23pm ET

Miami Dolphins S Reshad Jones (foot) returned to practice Monday, Aug. 19, but he's doing individual work and not participating in 11-on-11 drills. He said he'll be ready for the regular-season opener.

From TheHuddle

D'Onta Foreman Aug 19 3:13pm ET

Indianapolis Colts WR Daurice Fountain (ankle) and RB D'Onta Foreman (undisclosed) were placed on injured reserve Monday, Aug. 19. S Derrick Kindred was waived. The team signed S Kai Nacua, RB Charcandrick West and RB Marquis Young.

From TheHuddle