Armadillo FFL | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Cam Akers Fallout

Tue Jul 20 3:01pm ET
By DANE GALLOWAY
Contributing Writer

Akers is done for the season

Ouch.

So you’ve spent a late first-round/early second-round pick on Cam Akers. The pick was more than justified. The former second-round pick was poised to break out with Malcolm Brown leaving town as well as a big talent upgrade for the offense with the acquisition of Matthew Stafford. Plus, Akers was another year older.

At 9:25 CST on July 20th, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network stops your morning with a single tweet:

“RB Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles…”

Your ears are ringing. Your vision blurs. Nothing is left in you as you slump to the floor.

Rams’ backup Darrell Henderson’s ADP as of this morning was 135.79. With a complete lack of depth behind him in Los Angeles’ backfield depth chart, the Rams might look to acquire someone else via free agency or a trade. Despite this, Henderson is going to outproduce where he was taken in every draft so far this offseason by miles. So the next question is when is the best time to draft your team?

The format of your league should play a big part in finding this specific answer for you. To all of you commissioners out there running your season long leagues, just wait until the end of camp. I know your late summer schedule looks busy, but there will undoubtedly be more injuries throughout training camp and the preseason games. Nobody is safe. Not even Darrell Henderson. Waiting until towards the end of the preseason will minimize the amount of heartbreak for your league owners and will keep the playing field as balanced and competitive as possible.

Now, for all you money league and best ball grinders. If you’ve been drafting since May, you’ve approached every draft with the knowledge that Cam Akers would be the lead back for the Rams, and Darrell Henderson would be his primary backup. Henderson had proven his worth in the past, filling in decently last year when given the opportunity in their running back committee. The injury news hits today and your league is drastically affected. Unless a team drafted both Akers and Henderson, you now have one team that is, in practice, eliminated from contention. Then there is the much stronger team with an extra RB2.

As much as we would like to be able to do so, we cannot predict the future here at RTSports. Drafting your teams early in the offseason, especially in best ball formats, gives you the greatest opportunity to cash in on your predictions. Major injuries are an obvious factor in this. However, this is far from the only event that can change the outlook for your team. In early June, Julio Jones made it clear that he wanted out of Atlanta. If you reacted to that news by drafting Jones at his previous cheaper cost with Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown, you now have a unique team stack that is very hard to replicate at their current ADP. Do you think Aaron Rodgers might be traded to Denver? Then it could be worth drafting a team with the reigning MVP and Broncos receiving options.

Stacking correlated players limits the amount of things you have to get right when putting a team together. If Rodgers gets traded to Denver and performs at an MVP level again, it is extremely likely that Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant all perform better than how we are projecting them with Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Running backs are correlated with offenses as well. Good offenses lead to more scoring opportunities. Having Henderson paired with Stafford/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp is a bet that the Rams are going to be putting points up on the board.

Drafting a handcuff running back isn’t necessarily a bet on the starter missing the whole season, but a bet that there is upside for this second running back to fill in when needed and provide weeks where he can crack your lineup. In Henderson’s case, you now get that value on a weekly basis.

One stack I am not a fan of is drafting your running back’s backup. In managed leagues, I think this is fine. You’ve lost Akers for the year, but at least you have Henderson to fill the gap. In best ball, I advise everybody to avoid drafting players from the same backfield. In any situation, you are effectively consolidating two roster spots into one. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can’t carry the ball at the same time. They both can and have produced in the same week, but they also cut into each other’s upside. Rather than drafting your own running back’s handcuff, take a handcuff back from a different team. When drafting your best ball team, you should be making each pick as if your assumptions about that player are correct. Spending a first-round pick on Derrick Henry should mean you think he is going to smash again this year. So rather than drafting Titans’ backup Darrynton Evans at the end of your draft, look at someone like Devontae Booker on the Giants in case Saquon Barkley can’t stay healthy. There is a certain draft strategy that embraces the fragility of early round running backs that relies on these outcomes. I may be writing about this the near future.

Drafting early allows for you to swing for the fences. We have the Best Ball Championship with a $50,000 first place prize here on our site. To win in a format where you are not managing your team week-to-week, you must have a few of these news bombs to break in your favor. Last year, teams that drafted James Robinson in the final round had a significant leg up on the rest of the field after he was named the starter. That news came during the preseason, but the point remains; the NFL is chaotic. The next major shift in the fantasy landscape could come at noon tomorrow. Teams that are drafted today that take Darrell Henderson multiple rounds earlier than he was drafted yesterday are fine. They can’t replicate the ceiling of a team that drafted him at pick 140, though. Waiting for more injuries throughout the preseason is 100 percent justifiable and can win. Still, the very best (and luckiest) team could have come in June.

Drafting your best ball team in June and July puts you at risk of taking Cam Akers and not making it off the starting blocks Week 1. If you want the best shot at winning the top prizes in our money leagues, though, I say draft early and often. The payoffs of being right in early drafts can far outweigh losing an entry fee.

Cam Akers Fallout

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