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Friday Morning Special
FFL: Week 7 | NFL: Week 7

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 2

Fri Sep 13 1:40pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Josh Allen provides value Week 2


The first week of action across the NFL was a fun one, especially from a DFS perspective with so many teams putting up massing scoring numbers. There were plenty of surprise performances, as well as some studs who came away with monster stat lines. Let’s dive into the action for Week 2 and see which players could help lead you to a profitable entry.

QUARTERBACKS

Top-tier option: Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK ($7,000): The Chiefs’ offense looked just as potent as last season when they hung 40 points on the Jaguars in Week 1. Mahomes was once again productive, throwing for 378 yards and three touchdowns. While he did suffer an ankle injury, he is expected to play Sunday against the Raiders. Losing Tyreek Hill (collarbone) is significant, but Mahomes still has plenty of weapons around him, making him the most appealing option in cash contests. 

Cheap target: Josh Allen, BUF at NYG ($5,800): While Allen and the Bills were moving the ball well in the early going against the Jets, turnovers resulted in them failing to score in the first half. Allen and the offense stepped up in the fourth quarter, eventually pulling out a one-point win. Allen’s 254 passing yards and one passing touchdown aren’t great, but he once again provided value on the ground with 38 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. This is a favorable matchup against a Giants’ defense that was torched by the Cowboys, leaving Allen as a prime target at this price. 

Player to avoid: Kirk Cousins, MIN at GB ($5,900): Cousins didn’t get to do much in the Vikings’ first game against the Falcons, completing 8-of-10 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. They raced out to a big lead and rode Dalvin Cook to victory. The 10 pass attempts are certainly an anomaly, but the fact that Cook was heavily involved is not. The Vikings want to run the ball more and the Packers showed some promising improvement on defense against the Bears, making Cousins too risky here. I’d much rather save $100 and roll with Allen. 

RUNNING BACKS

Top-tier option: Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. BUF ($8,200): If the Giants are going to have any chance of winning games, it’s going to be on the shoulders of Barkley. That’s why it was surprising that he only received 11 carries against the Cowboys. He certainly made them count, racking up 120 yards. While his 19 receiving yards weren’t great, the six targets that he received is the stat to focus on. Expect him to receive more carries this week and have one of the highest floors at his position.

Cheap target: Matt Breida, SF at CIN ($5,900): Running backs are dropping like flies again on the 49ers. First, Jerick McKinnon (knee) was placed on IR for the second straight season. Then Tevin Coleman sprained his ankle against the Bucs. Even Breida had to leave that contest to get an IV. Breida is fine for this matchup, but Coleman won’t be able to play. With the lion’s share of the workload set to fall to him, Breida could provide tremendous value based on his ability to both rack up rushing yards and catch passes out of the backfield.

Player to avoid: Phillip Lindsay, DEN vs. CHI ($6,500): What we saw from the Broncos in their opener against the Raiders was not great for Lindsay’s prospects moving forward. He was on the field for 53.1 percent of their offense snaps while fellow running back Royce Freeman played 46.9 percent of the snaps. A time share against one of the best defenses in the league is certainly a matchup to stay away from.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Top-tier option: Keenan Allen, LAC at DET ($6,800): Allen was his usual productive self against the Colts, catching eight of 10 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown. While that’s already a lot of targets, he could see even more this week with Hunter Henry (knee) out and Mike Williams (knee) trending in the wrong direction. That leaves Travis Benjamin, Dontrelle Inman and Virgil Green as his main competition for targets. Need I say more?

Cheap target: Cole Beasley, BUF at NYG ($4,000): Beasley and John Brown are two key additions for the Bills and they both played well in Week 1. Although Brown had the juicier overall numbers, Beasley still received nine targets. The Giants’ defense is very soft in the middle of the field, which is where Beasley thrives. His touchdown upside isn’t great, but look for him to accumulate a lot of receptions here.

Player to avoid: Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. CHI ($5,300): I’m basically avoiding everyone on the Broncos. If the Bears could hold Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to 10 points, think about what they could do against Joe Flacco and the Broncos, who were limited to 16 points by the Raiders on Monday. There will be other weeks in which the up-and-coming Sutton warrants consideration, but this isn’t one of them.

TIGHT ENDS

Top-tier option: Travis Kelce, KC at OAK ($6,900): Kelce only caught three of his eight targets against the Jaguars, but he at least converted those receptions into 88 yards. With Hill now sidelined, Kelce is likely going to take on an even larger role within the offense. This is a prime matchup against the Raiders, who he torched for 230 yards and two touchdowns in two games last season.

Cheap target: Darren Waller, OAK vs. KC ($4,500): With Antonio Brown gone, Tyrell Williams takes over as the number one wide receiver for the Raiders. Their other options at the position aren’t great, which means Waller should be heavily involved at tight end. After catching seven of eight targets for 70 yards in Week 1, he has significant upside as the Raiders try to keep pace with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.

Player to avoid: Eric Ebron, IND at TEN ($5,200): Ebron was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy last year with his 13 touchdown receptions. He started off this season slowly, catching one of three targets for eight yards versus the Chargers. While that’s bad, the really scary stat from a fantasy perspective is that he was only on the field for 39.7 percent of the Colts’ offensive plays compared to 68.3 percent for fellow tight end Jack Doyle. With Doyle now healthy, expect Ebron to continue to have a limited role.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

Player Notes
Sterling Shepard Oct 16 1:10pm ET

New York Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard (concussion) remains in the league's concussion protocol and was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Shepard missed last Thursday's game and will likely be questionable for Week 7 against the Cardinals. He'll have to gain clearance from the protocol later this week in order to have a shot at suiting up, making him a risky fantasy option despite the excellent matchup. Golden Tate and Darius Slayton would be the team's top two receivers if Shepard remains out, although the Cardinals will be getting cornerback Patrick Peterson back from suspension this week. Tight end Evan Engram (knee) is also on track to return after missing last week's game.

From RotoBaller

Nelson Agholor Oct 16 1:00pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor is not a great starting option for Week 7. The Eagles hit the road to take on the Dallas Cowboys and their strong pass defense on Sunday Night Football. Agholor managed to catch four of his seven targets in Week 6, but caught only one pass in Weeks 4 and 5. He simply does not possess NFL-level hands and will always battle with drops and fumbles. The Eagles passing game will likely run through Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz, leaving Agholor far behind.

From RotoBaller

Mack Hollins Oct 16 1:00pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Mack Hollins is not a fantasy option in Week 7. The Eagles will take on the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and even if DeSean Jackson (abdomen) is forced to miss another game, Hollins will only play a bit role. Hollins saw seven targets in Week 3, but has seen just five total targets since then. He's playing plenty of snaps in three-wide sets, but just isn't seeing much of the ball going his way. He's droppable in most formats.

From RotoBaller

JJ Arcega-Whiteside Oct 16 1:00pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles rookie wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside has not seen a pass thrown his way since Week 3. The hyped rookie saw four targets in Week 2 and three in Week 3, but hasn't seen any since then. He's been mostly working on special teams even without DeSean Jackson (abdomen) available on offense. The Eagles have been rolling with Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Mack Hollins in three-wide sets, and that's not likely to change any time soon. Arcega-Whiteside is a dynasty hold for sure, but seems unlikely to develop much redraft value this season.

From RotoBaller

Saquon Barkley Oct 16 1:00pm ET

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) and tight end Evan Engram (knee) were both full participants in practice on Wednesday. Barkley and Engram are both on track to return for a mouthwatering Week 7 matchup against the Cardinals. Barkley's owners have to be ecstatic that he will wind up missing just two games after suffering a mild high right ankle sprain. Barkley and Engram will be high-end fantasy options at their respective positions this weekend. The Cardinals allow the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. The return of both players should also boost rookie quarterback Daniel Jones' appeal as a QB streamer.

From RotoBaller

Devin Smith Oct 16 12:40pm ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Devin Smith could be back in the starting lineup for a key Week 7 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. With Amari Cooper (quad) and Randall Cobb (back) both questionable at best for Sunday Night Football, Smith could play the biggest role he's played all season against an Eagles pass defense that barely exists. Smith, as usual, will be a boom-or-bust play in fantasy, but could be a solid DFS value if Cooper and Cobb are both out.

From RotoBaller

Cedrick Wilson Oct 16 12:40pm ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Cedrick Wilson could be elevated to a starting role on Sunday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles. With wide receivers Amari Cooper (quad) and Randall Cobb (back) not sure things for Sunday's matchup, the Cowboys could be forced to roll with Michael Gallup, Devin Smith, and Wilson in three-wide sets. Wilson appeared out of nowhere onto the Cowboys box score in Week 6, catching five passes for 48 yards. He'll get an easy Eagles secondary to contend with, so Wilson could be a near zero-cost moderate upside value in DFS leagues this week.

From RotoBaller

Tavon Austin Oct 16 12:40pm ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Tavon Austin could have a legitimate role on offense in Week 7. The Cowboys will host the Philadelphia Eagles and their porous, generous pass defense. With Amari Cooper (quad) and Randall Cobb (back) not sure things for Sunday night, Austin should see more snaps than usual. He somehow led the Cowboys in receiving last week, catching five passes for 64 yards. He's not a huge-upside play, but could end up as a decent bye week filler if Cooper and Cobb are both out.

From RotoBaller

Alshon Jeffery Oct 16 12:40pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery should have another solid performance in Week 7 despite a tough matchup. DeSean Jackson (abdomen) is questionable at best for Sunday and would likely be limited even if he were able to play, making Jeffery once again the top target in the passing game. The Cowboys defend well against the pass, but the Eagles will have to move the ball and Jeffery will likely be the one to do it. He's been solid this season although he hasn't shown a ton of upside. He's settled in as an every-week WR2.

From RotoBaller

Amari Cooper Oct 16 12:30pm ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receivers Amari Cooper (thigh) and Randall Cobb (back) will not practice on Wednesday. Offensive tackles Tyron Smith (ankle) and La'el Collins (back) also aren't practicing. Consider all of them questionable to play on Sunday night in a big divisional showdown against the Eagles. Cooper was in serious pain after the Week 6 loss to the Jets and is in serious danger of sitting out this weekend. With Cobb also banged up and sitting out on Sunday, the Cowboys could be looking at three-wide sets of Michael Gallup, Devin Smith and Cedrick Wilson against the Eagles beatable secondary.

From RotoBaller

Michael Gallup Oct 16 12:30pm ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup should see an increased role in Week 7 and has a good matchup to exploit. The Cowboys will host the division rival Philadelphia Eagles and their struggling pass defense. Gallup could be playing as the top receiving option as Amari Cooper (quad) is not a sure thing for Sunday. With Gallup likely running as the top target through the air, he'll be a low-end WR1 if Cooper is out.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Howard Oct 16 12:10pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles running back Jordan Howard could struggle in Week 7. The Eagles travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a battle for first place, and Howard will face off against a tough Dallas run defense. While he has become the head of the Philly backfield, Howard is still a zero in the passing game, limiting his upside to touchdowns. He's right on the RB2/3 border, but his goal line role will always give him some upside in any matchup.

From RotoBaller

Miles Sanders Oct 16 12:10pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles rookie running back Miles Sanders is not an exciting choice for a Week 7 fantasy lineup. Sanders is playing passing downs behind early-down lead back Jordan Howard and isn't doing much in the red zone, severely limiting his upside. The Eagles travel to Dallas to take on a strong Cowboys Defense and could have some trouble moving the ball. Sanders shapes up as an unexciting RB3 with not too much upside for the Sunday Night Football contest.

From RotoBaller

Ryan Fitzpatrick Oct 16 12:00pm ET

Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores announced on Wednesday that quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will start over Josh Rosen in Week 7 against the Bills. Rosen failed against the Redskins in Week 6 and was benched in favor of the veteran late in the game. Fitzpatrick has had his ups and downs this year. He likely gives Miami a better chance to win in the short term, but he'll be an unappealing QB2 in a terrifying matchup against Buffalo's strong defense on the road this Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Devin Singletary Oct 16 12:00pm ET

Buffalo Bills rookie running back Devin Singletary (hamstring) will practice in full on Wednesday. It looks like Singletary will return to action in Week 7 against the Dolphins after resting up during the bye week. The 22-year-old rookie has just 10 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown in two games this year and hasn't played since Sept. 15. Even if he's active in a great matchup with Miami, Singletary will be a low-end RB3/flex that should continue to play second fiddle to veteran Frank Gore in the backfield.

From RotoBaller

Ezekiel Elliott Oct 16 11:40am ET

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott will face a difficult challenge in Week 7. The Cowboys will host the Philadelphia Eagles in a winner-takes-first-place-for-now battle on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles Defense has essentially been non-existent against the pass but has actually been very strong against the run. Elliott should still put up numbers, especially since he can play a role in the passing game if necessary, but his upside could be a little limited. He's absolutely an RB1 as always, but he's more top-five than top-two for this week.

From RotoBaller

Case Keenum Oct 16 11:40am ET

Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith (leg), who suffered a gruesome leg injury in November of last year, said he wound up having 17 surgeries on his right leg. Smith developed an infection following an operation to fix the broken fibula and tibia he suffered against the Texans. The 35-year-old recently resumed throwing and hopes to return to the field again eventually, but it's a long shot that he'll be back in 2019. The fact that Smith has made it this far is even a minor miracle, and there's no guarantee he'll play another down in the NFL again. The 'Skins will move forward with Case Keenum under center for another week after getting their first win against the Dolphins in Week 6.

From RotoBaller

Tony Pollard Oct 16 11:40am ET

Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Tony Pollard won't likely have too big of a role in Week 7. The Cowboys will welcome the Eagles into town for Sunday Night Football, and starter Ezekiel Elliott will almost certainly see a monster workload in what should be a close game. Pollard remains a handcuff with league-winning upside, but his own value is completely game flow dependent and too difficult to predict.

From RotoBaller

Dak Prescott Oct 16 11:30am ET

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is set up well for a strong performance on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. The Cowboys will host the division rival Philadelphia Eagles in what should be one of the better games of the week. The Eagles Defense has been awful at limiting opposing quarterbacks, so Prescott has a chance to go off this week to make up for the losses that are starting to pile up. He may be without his top receiver though, as Amari Cooper is recovering from a thigh bruise that forced him to make an early exit in the loss against the Jets. Still, Prescott is a solid mid-range QB1 for the first-place matchup against the Eagles.

From RotoBaller

DeSean Jackson Oct 16 11:30am ET

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson (abdomen) said he is doing well and is "on track," but he will not practice on Wednesday. Jackson will instead run on a side field on Wednesday. The Eagles are optimistic that D-Jax can return on Sunday night against the Cowboys in Week 7, but it's not a certainty. The Eagles desperately need the return of their deep threat, and quarterback Carson Wentz's fantasy stock would receive a big boost if Jackson returns. As of now, though, he's a risky fantasy option this weekend with the game being on Sunday night. If Jackson misses another game, it'll be Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Mack Hollins remaining in three-wide sets.

From RotoBaller