Wed Jan 26 10:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Samuel should get plenty of work
Wow, wow, wow. That is about all you can say about last week’s game. That might have been the greatest playoff weekend ever. Needless to say, this week has a lot to live up to. Hopefully, we can at least near those games. We’ll see. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Josh Allen is so special. He had a game for the ages last week and lost. He had nine touchdowns without a turnover in the Bills two playoff games, showing he can come up big in the big game. Allen is a special, special player. At this point, I’m raking him first overall in my quarterback rankings for 2022. One thing that gets overlooked with Allen is his ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 763 yard this season. This guy is as consistent it gets at the quarterback spot and is going to be a superstar for lots of years to come.
One player that is going to be intriguing next year is Gabriel Davis. He had one of the best games ever for a receiver in the playoffs, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. His stock is rising in a hurry, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley possibly gone next year. Davis should start opposite Stefon Diggs in the Bills explosive passing game. I’m not sure he is going to be a consistent play but expect plenty of big games. Plus, he is a great red-zone target because of his size and strength.
I think Tom Brady returns for one more season. He had a fantastic year once again and showed few signs of slowing down - if any. The Bucs were depleted at receiver by season’s end, so I think they reload there and give Brady one more shot to win it all. A healthy Chris Godwin and a new No. 3 to replace Antonio Brown would give Brady a big-time boost.
How do the Bucs let Cooper Kupp get behind him in the waning seconds of a tie game? I could not believe that one. I know Kupp is one of the best, so you can’t ignore that. But if I’m the Bucs, I do everything in my power to keep him in front of me to prevent a big play. I could not believe the end to that game. As for Kupp, he has 100-yard games six of his last eight games. He had one of the all-time great seasons for a receiver, so it was kind of a fitting end to this game for him.
And speaking of crazy finishes. You could second guess a lot with the end to that Bills/Chiefs, seeing a ton of points scored in a short time to send that game to overtime. The big one for me is seeing the Bills kick the ball into the end zone after they gook the lead with just 13 seconds left. I make the Chiefs run it back to run some time off the clock. I think they did them a favor by kicking it deep, giving Patrick Mahomes more time to do his thing. That was my big beef with how that played out. But even with that said, it was sure exciting to watch. Wow. That was probably the best football game I ever watched.
I had a hard time picking the games last week and am feeling the same way this week. These aren’t easy decisions. I have a hard time picking against the Chiefs right now, though. I never thought they would make three straight Super Bowls, but just can’t see the Bengals going on the road and winning that one. The Chiefs are playing their best football at the right time. And over in the NFC, I am going with the 49ers. They beat the Rams twice during the regular season and think they will make it a third time. San Francisco just seems a team of destiny. Their defense is playing great and I expect the offense, mainly the running game, to play much better this week. The Rams impressed last week, but I still don’t have total faith in Matthew Stafford. Maybe he showed me last week, but I don’t think the Rams run the ball well this week and Stafford will be forced to carry the offense against a very good 49ers defense.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is red hot right now, having touchdowns five straight games. He also has 100-yard games two of those weeks. Kelce has 23-plus fantasy points two straight and three of five. He is setup to find the end zone again this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. Samuel just keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. He has touchdowns three of four games. He has 20-plus fantasy points nine times this season. His rushing numbers make him a force at the receiver spot, producing as a dual threat for all his fantasy owners. Samuel had huge success in two games against the Rams this season. Samuel had 300 total yards and three touchdowns, catching nine passes. He should be heavily involved in the 49ers game plan.
Cam Akers, RB, Rams. Akers is back and looks to be the clear lead back for the Rams. He ran the ball 24 times last week and has 41 carries in the Rams two playoff games. Unfortunately, the Rams running game isn’t opening many holes for him right now. Akers has 41 carries for just 103 yards in those two games. And things won’t get much easier for him this week against the 49ers. The 49ers held the Rams to 116-rushing yards in two games this year. Ie might be more of the same for Akers.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell had a breakout season, emerging as the lead back for the 49ers and having much success in that role. His lack of work in the passing game holds him back little, though, especially in games against a team that does well in holding down the run. He faces one of those teams this week, the Rams. Los Angeles held Mitchell to fewer than double-digit fantasy points in each of their games this year. Mitchell got 20-plus carries in each game but couldn’t crack double-digit points despite the work. He might be tough sledding for him again this week.
Byron Pringle, WR, Chiefs. Pringle has really emerged as a consistent threat in the Chiefs passing game. He has five receptions three straight games. And he has at least five catches four of five games. He also has three touchdowns in two playoff games this year. Patrick Mahomes has more trust in him and is looking his way a lot more often. He could be a good play again this week in a game that could be very high scoring once again.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd can disappear at times in this offense with two top weapons to compete with for targets this year. But he has still produced some big games this year. He is more than capable. He has touchdowns four of five games. He also has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. The Chiefs allowed Cole Beasley to have six receptions for 60 yards last week. Beasley plays a similar position to Boyd, so that bodes well for Boyd to have some success in this matchup.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs, 49ers/Rams.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Dynasty | Falcons rookie running back Tyler Allgeier was listed as a riser in a recent camp report Dynasty Analysis: The rookie rushed for 25 yards on three carries in his first preseason action and also had a nice blitz pickup showing that he is picking up more than just yardage on the field. As noted in the attached link, the team is going to have a make a tough cut at some point at running back but Allgeier is certain to remain. He's still expected to play behind hybrid player Cordarrelle Patterson. He's listed as DLF's RB56 and is an intriguing second-round dynasty rookie draft selection.
Dynasty | Falcons running back Damien Williams was listed as a "faller" in a recent training camp report Dynasty Analysis: Williams only managed 10 yards on three carries in the team's first preseason game and it's likely too early to make any calls on his ability to stick on the roster. The team is going to have to make a tough cut or two at the position and it means Williams or Qadree Ollison could be the first to go. Given Ollison's better performance, Williams would seem to be more on the bubble. He's very sparsely ranked as DLF's RB79.
Dynasty | Bills rookie tight end Jalen Wydermyer has been released Dynasty Analysis: It's a bit of a surprise as Wydermyer had gained a bit of a following prior to the 2022 NFL Draft and he's certain to catch on elsewhere. For now, there's no need to roster the rookie until after we see him resurface and have impact with a new team. He's unranked on DLF's tight end rankings.
Dynasty | Vikings running back Kene Nwangwu was listed as a "riser" in a recent camp report Dynasty Analysis: Nwangwu looked decisive and agile in his first preseason action as he rushed for 41 yards on seven carries while converting both of his targets for 18 yards. Fellow backfield mate Ty Chandler rushed for more yardage and also looked strong but it was Nwangwu who looked more decisive and agile. With Dalvin Cook aging and Alexander Mattison a free agent in 2023, there's change on the horizon. Nwangwu, DLF's RB76, is a well valued dynasty stash for 2023 and beyond.
Minnesota Vikings kicker Greg Joseph made both of his field goal and extra point attempts in the team's preseason opener against the Las Vegas Raiders, connecting on 20-yard and 23-yard attempts in this one. The 28-year-old made 33-of-38 field goal attempts and 70-of-78 extra point attempts during the 2021 season, so he should be a reliable option for fantasy managers in 2022. After finishing as the sixth-best kicker in fantasy a season ago, Joseph seems like a safe weekly starting option as the Vikings offense should have no trouble putting him in a position to score points this season.
Minnesota Vikings running back Kene Nwangwu carried the ball seven times for 41 yards and caught two passes for an additional 18 yards in Sunday's preseason loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The second-year back out of Iowa State will look to earn a role in the Minnesota offense this season, as he carried the ball just 13 times for 61 yards in his rookie year. Nwangwu was mostly used in the return game, showcasing his game-breaking speed on multiple occasions. As of now, he seems like a safe bet to be the RB3 behind Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, so his fantasy value could increase significantly if anyone ahead of him on the depth chart misses time this season.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Albert Wilson caught two passes for 22 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's preseason opener against the Las Vegas Raiders. Wilson saw just two targets in this one as he clearly made the most of his opportunity. The former Miami Dolphin will look to carve out a role in the offense as the preseason continues, but it is hard to envision him earning a role that will make him fantasy relevant. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn are locked in as the top-three wide receivers, so Wilson will need to fend off Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Bisi Johnson for WR4 duties in the high-powered Minnesota offense. Wilson can be left off the fantasy radar for now.
Minnesota Vikings running back Ty Chandler carried the ball five times for 50 yards in Sunday's preseason loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The fifth-round pick out of North Carolina will need to continue to impress if he wants a role in the Minnesota offense, as Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Kene Nwangwu currently sit atop the depth chart. Head coach Kevin O'Connell praised the rookie after his strong performance, saying "he's pretty decisive in the run game, putting his foot down, getting north and south." Still, it is hard to envision Chandler having any fantasy value given that he is likely the fourth option in the backfield. The 24-year-old would need a lot to go his way to be considered for fantasy rosters this season.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kellen Mond completed 9-of-14 passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns in the team's preseason opener against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. The Texas A&M collegiate product will look to gain the edge over Sean Mannion for QB2 duties throughout the rest of the preseason, as there have been reports that the 23-year-old has struggled in training camp. However, he outperformed his competition in this one, as Mannion completed 8-of-12 passes for just 79 yards. Mond won't have any fantasy value for the time being, but if he wins the backup job and Kirk Cousins misses time this season, he could be an interesting option with the Vikings' loaded supporting cast.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will miss the entire preseason, according to head coach Frank Reich. The star running back was rested during the preseason opener. Now, the organization has decided to have Taylor sit out the rest of the preseason. The Colts aren't expected to use any of their starters next week because of a joint practice with the Detroit Lions. The lack of reps for Taylor shouldn't be much of a concern for fantasy managers heading into the regular season.
Detroit Lions tight end Garrett Griffin has been released by the organization. The 28-year-old was reunited with head coach Dan Campbell earlier this offseason. They overlapped with each other during their time in New Orleans. Regardless, it doesn't sound like Griffin made the first round of cuts. That is not a good sign for the veteran blocking tight end. He played in a career-high 13 games last season with the Saints. Although, he couldn't make the Lions roster who lacks serious depth at tight end. Griffin is unlikely to be fantasy relevant on any roster. Fantasy managers should expect T.J. Hockenson to be the focal point at tight end in Detroit.
Cleveland Browns defensive back Greg Newsome II (hamstring) won't be sidelined for long, according to head coach Kevin Stefanski. The 22-year-old hasn't practiced since Tuesday and sat out the preseason opener. Despite that, the Browns don't expect Newsome to miss Week 1 of the regular season. The former first round pick battled multiple injuries last season. Although, he still had success with 37 tackles and nine passes defended through 13 games. Fantasy managers who have the Browns defense rostered shouldn't be worried about Newsome missing significant time from this injury.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is unlikely to face a suspension, according to Adam Schefter. It seems increasingly more likely that Kamara won't be suspended before the regular season begins. That being said, it could happen down the road or even during the 2023 campaign. The 27-year-old is facing felony battery charges resulting in substantial bodily harm. The hearing is supposed to happen on September 29th, but it has also been postponed three times already. Kamara should be a fine RB2 after getting a career-high in touches last season. Although, the threat of a suspension is always looming, which does somewhat hurt his value.
New Orleans rookie wide receiverChris Olave turned his lone target into four yards in Saturday's 17-13 preseason loss to the Houston Texans. Only logging 15 snaps (eight routes run) during his time on the field, he will look to make a more significant impact in the next preseason matchup against the Green Bay Packers. The lack of targets should not be a concern for fantasy managers; look for that to increase when starting quarterback Jameis Winston(foot) returns to action. While we still wait to see whatMichael Thomaslooks like post-injury and whereJarvis Landryfits into the lineup, Olave still looks to be a great value as a later-round wide receiver with a high upside in what should be a pass-happy offense.
Las Vegas Raiders RB Ameer Abdullah was among the players rested during a 26-20 preseason win over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Aug. 14.
Fantasy Spin: Josh Jacobs and Abdullah rested in the preseason contest, which seems to support the rumors that Abdullah has emerged as the third-down back for Las Vegas. Kenyan Drake and Zamir Wchite are lurking, but Abdullah is worth grabbing in the later rounds of PPR formats.
San Francisco 49ers tight end Charlie Woerner (core muscle) was removed from the PUP list on Sunday. The 2020 sixth-round selection out of Georgia had surgery during the offseason. However, he's buried deep on the depth chart, with a big chunk of his workload reserved for the special teams unit. Still, if George Kittle or Tyler Kroft miss time this season, there's a chance Woerner could receive more snaps. But even then, his fantasy expectations will remain low.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (knee) came off the Physically Unable to Perform list, per head coach Matt LaFleur. The rookie had an offseason procedure and hasn't been active throughout training camp thus far. He will be eased back into action, performing individual drills. However, his status for Week 1 remains up in the air. Nevertheless, while Watson figures to see plenty of attention from Aaron Rodgers this season, he will probably need some time to work out any rust caused by his lengthy absence. As a result, he may not be a starting fantasy option early in the season, although he could pick things up as the year progresses.
Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan (knee) came off the PUP list on Sunday to start drilling individually, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. The 28-year-old tore his ACL in Week 8 last season during a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals and wasn't available for the remainder of the year. While it's still not certain if he'll be in uniform for Week 1, he's at least moving in the right direction. Nevertheless, his workload may be limited even if he's good for the season opener. However, Tonyan is a familiar face for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, so he could progressively get more targets and snaps throughout the 2022-23 campaign.
Miami Dolphins cornerback Trill Williams (knee) suffered a torn left ACL during Saturday's preseason matchup against the Buccaneers. He will miss the 2022-23 season. The 22-year-old was forecasted to backup Xavier Howard and Byron Jones (leg). However, Williams had a chance to see more action, at least for a game or two, if Jones wasn't recovered enough from leg surgery to be ready for Week 1. Still, even if the Syracuse alum had remained healthy, he wasn't expected to see any interest from most IDP managers.
Las Vegas Raiders TE Darren Waller says the team has a plan for him in the red zone, which is different than in years past. 'There was a lot of times in the last couple years where I felt like there wasn't a clear defined attack in the red zone or like a plan for me specifically,' Waller said. 'Now I kind of feel like that's something that's in place with [head coach] Josh [McDaniels].'
Fantasy Spin: Waller tallied nine touchdowns in 2020, but sandwiched around that were campaigns that saw him total three in 2019 and two in 2021, although he missed six games in the latter season. That said, one of the best tight ends in fantasy getting more red zone looks is a good thing. Waller is an elite TE1 and should be one of the first off the board at his position in re-draft leagues.