Running Back Deep Dive
Tue Aug 9 2:26pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Taylor carries less risk this year
Running back is the toughest position to select come draft day. It is an unpredictable position that seems to vary from season to season. There are plenty of factors that go into this, so we thought it might be a good idea to delve deeper into the subject. We decided to look at age and wear and tear of the top rated backs from past seasons to help figure out the best running backs to take come draft day. We took a look at the top 10 fantasy running backs from the last five seasons, going over age, seasons played to date, and whether they were rookies or not.
| 2021 | AGE | EXP | 2020 | AGE | EXP | |||
| 1. | J. Taylor | 22 | 1 | 1. | A. Kamara | 25 | 3 | |
| 2. | A. Ekeler | 26 | 4 | 2. | D. Cook | 25 | 3 | |
| 3. | N. Harris ® | 23 | 0 | 3. | D. Henry | 26 | 4 | |
| 4. | J. Mixon | 25 | 4 | 4. | D. Montgomery | 23 | 1 | |
| 5. | J. Conner | 26 | 4 | 5. | A. Jones | 26 | 3 | |
| 6. | L. Fournette | 26 | 4 | 6. | J. Taylor ® | 21 | 0 | |
| 7. | E. Elliott | 26 | 5 | 7. | J. Robinson ® | 22 | 0 | |
| 8. | A. Kamara | 26 | 4 | 8. | J. Jacobs | 22 | 1 | |
| 9. | C. Patterson | 30 | 8 | 9. | E. Elliott | 25 | 4 | |
| 10. | A. Gibson | 23 | 1 | 10. | K. Hunt | 25 | 3 | |
| 2019 | AGE | EXP | 2018 | AGE | EXP | |||
| 1. | C. McCaffrey | 23 | 2 | 1. | S. Barkley ® | 21 | 0 | |
| 2. | D. Henry | 25 | 3 | 2. | C. McCaffrey | 22 | 1 | |
| 3. | A. Jones | 25 | 2 | 3. | T. Gurley | 24 | 3 | |
| 4. | E. Elliott | 24 | 3 | 4. | A. Kamara | 23 | 1 | |
| 5. | D. Cook | 24 | 2 | 5. | E. Elliott | 23 | 2 | |
| 6. | N. Chubb | 24 | 1 | 6. | J. Conner | 23 | 1 | |
| 7. | A. Ekeler | 24 | 2 | 7. | J . White | 26 | 4 | |
| 8. | M. Ingram | 30 | 8 | 8. | M. Gordon | 25 | 3 | |
| 9. | C. Carson | 25 | 2 | 9. | D. Johnson | 27 | 3 | |
| 10. | S. Barkley | 22 | 1 | 10. | J. Mixon | 22 | 1 | |
| 2017 | AGE | EXP | ||||||
| 1. | T. Gurley | 23 | 2 | |||||
| 2. | L. Bell | 25 | 4 | |||||
| 3. | A. Kamara ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 4. | K. Hunt ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 5. | M. Gordon | 24 | 2 | |||||
| 6. | M. Ingram | 28 | 6 | |||||
| 7. | L. McCoy | 29 | 8 | |||||
| 8. | C. Hyde | 27 | 3 | |||||
| 9. | L. Fournette ® | 22 | 0 | |||||
| 10. | C. McCaffrey ® | 21 | 0 |
Here are the big takeaways from the data. First off, the average age of the top 10 fantasy backs from the past five seasons was 24.26. That is quite young, showing that this position can age out in a hurry. And many of the top backs in the game are just a season or two into their careers. The running back spot is a young man’s game.
During the last two seasons, just one back over the age of 27 made the list. And there are just six backs total in five seasons that are 27 years old or older (12 percent). Again, the data overwhelmingly shows that younger backs have the best chance to produce big for fantasy owners.
The average number of seasons played for these players also is just 2.54. So you are looking at players in their second and third seasons most likely finishing as a top 10 fantasy back. These backs are relatively new to the league and making a big splash in a hurry.
Rookies also have a history of making an impact. There has been at least one rookie four of the last five seasons to finish in the top 10. There are eight total rookies that have finished in the top 10 the last five years (16%). So there is a pretty good chance a rookie back makes the list once again this year. Young backs can make a splash in a hurry. Just look at 2017 when four rookies were top 10 fantasy backs.
Now that we have all this data, let’s put it to good use and apply it to this year. Below is a list of the top 20 fantasy backs according to the latest ADP. The list includes age and seasons played in the NFL.
| 2022 RB ADP | AGE | EXP | |
| 1. | J. Taylor | 23 | 2 |
| 2. | C. McCaffrey | 26 | 5 |
| 3. | A. Ekeler | 27 | 5 |
| 4. | N. Harris | 24 | 1 |
| 5. | D. Cook | 27 | 5 |
| 6. | D. Henry | 28 | 6 |
| 7. | D. Swift | 23 | 2 |
| 8. | J. Mixon | 26 | 5 |
| 9. | J. Williams | 22 | 1 |
| 10. | N. Chubb | 26 | 4 |
| 11. | S. Barkley | 25 | 4 |
| 12. | L. Fournette | 27 | 5 |
| 13. | A. Jones | 27 | 5 |
| 14. | E. Elliott | 27 | 6 |
| 15. | J. Conner | 27 | 5 |
| 16. | C. Akers | 23 | 2 |
| 17. | D. Montgomery | 25 | 3 |
| 18. | T. Etienne | 23 | 1 |
| 19. | J. Jacobs | 24 | 3 |
| 20. | B. Hall | 21 | 0 |
After seeing the list, there are 10 players (highlighted above) that make the cut as players around 24.26 years old and playing around 2.54 seasons. Remember, those are the benchmark numbers for top 10 fantasy backs the last five seasons. The highlighted players might be good targets for fantasy teams. Just something to keep in mind come draft day. If you have to pick between a guy like James Conner or Travis Etienne, maybe this data will push you towards Etienne, a guy many are high on and think could have a breakout season. Go younger, right?
Also, Breece Hall is the only rookie in the top 20 ADP for running backs. If history is correct, there is a decent chance Hall or another rookie back finishes above that ADP, cracking the top 10. Hall is another player you might want to think about grabbing come draft day.
In closing, it seems the backs that carry the least risk are young backs with just a few seasons under their belt. The numbers don’t lie. This might not be new news to a lot of you, but for some, it might be a little eye opening, seeing how quickly backs fade in this league.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The Buffalo Bills have selected Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman with the No. 33 overall pick (second round) in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 20-year-old was rumored to have a chance at being drafted in the first round, but Buffalo traded back twice and still landed him. The 6'4", 215-pound pass-catcher is a contested-catch specialist and racked up 18 touchdowns in his last 24 games with Florida State and Michigan State. With Stefon Diggs gone to Houston, Coleman could step in right away and act as Josh Allen's No. 1 wide receiver. This is a great landing spot, and Coleman is very much in the first-round conversation of upcoming rookie drafts in all formats.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers selected University of Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey with the No. 34 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Friday. McConkey is viewed as one of the best route runners in this wide receiver class, and the Chargers had a dire need at wideout after moving on from Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason. Although McConkey's numbers over the last three years aren't all that impressive (119 receptions for 1,687 yards and 14 touchdowns), it's worth noting he battled injuries as a senior, and he dominated at the NFL Combine. With Quentin Johnston struggling to make an impact as a rookie, McConkey could make a run to be Justin Herbert's go-to target.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers have listened to calls on All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel, but sources are saying that the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are considered highly unlikely to trade for him. After the first round of the 2024 NFL draft was completed on Thursday night, a report surfaced that the Niners were more likely to trade Samuel than Brandon Aiyuk. There has been a lot of trade talk around both Aiyuk and Samuel this offseason, and the Niners' first-round pick of receiver Ricky Pearsall at No. 31 on Thursday night made it look like a trade was more likely to happen. The Bills and Patriots have the first two picks in the second round, respectively, so if neither of them can pull off a trade for Samuel before Round 2 starts, they could both go with pass-catchers in what is a deep and talented class in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Former Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham was selected with the seventh overall pick by the Tennessee Titans in the 2024 NFL draft. Tennessee had a glaring need at left tackle, but Latham played on the right side for Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa. However, Titans head coach Brian Callahan said Latham is eager to play on the left side and has the traits to do so. Tennessee had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season, but with Latham, second-year guard Peter Skoronski, and newly signed center Lloyd Cushenberry starting up front, the unit could be one of the biggest improvers in 2024. This bodes well for all of Tennessee's fantasy-relevant offensive skill players.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is seeking a reworked deal that includes more guaranteed money, according to NFL Insider Ian Rapaport. The 36-year-old has three years left on his current deal, though the Rams have a potential out following the 2025 season. The four-year contract that he signed ahead of the 2022 season included $130 million in total guarantees. The Super Bowl-winning QB has been present at voluntary workouts this offseason and a holdout does not appear to be imminent, but this is a situation worth monitoring. After posting nearly 4,000 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions en route to a playoff berth in 2023, Stafford believes he has plenty left in the tank.
From RotoBaller
Former Southern California and South Carolina running back MarShawn Lloyd is viewed as a top-five running back in the 2024 NFL Draft class, and NFL insider Tom Pelissero believes he could be the first ball carrier selected. The 23-year-old missed his entire freshman season at South Carolina with a torn ACL and handled just 196 touches for 1,021 yards and 12 total touchdowns over his next two seasons. He transferred to Southern Cal for the 2023 campaign and posted 820 rushing yards (7.1 YPC), 232 receiving yards (17.8 YPR), and nine total touchdowns. He turned heads at the 2024 NFL Combine with a 4.46 forty-yard dash time at 220 pounds, and in a weak running back draft class, that might have been enough to push him into the RB1 spot for some NFL squads.
From RotoBaller
Former Oklahoma and South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler was once viewed as a potential first-round pick after being a five-star recruit in the high-school class of 2019. His career did not go as expected, but he's thought to be the next-best quarterback on the board in the 2024 NFL draft. The first round saw six signal-callers selected in the top 12 picks, and any other teams looking to take a flyer on a quarterback likely have Rattler on their radar. The Around The NFL staff at NFL.com expects the 23-year-old to be selected in Round 3, but the run of quarterbacks on Day 1 could push him up to Round 2. Rattler threw for 10,807 yards, 77 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in 48 games with the Sooners and Gamecocks.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers officially picked up the fifth-year option for standout cornerback Jaycee Horn on Friday, according to sources. Despite playing in only six games in 2023 due to a hamstring injury, Horn will have his fifth-year option picked up. The 24-year-old former eighth overall pick by Carolina in 2021 out of South Carolina had 27 tackles (20 solo) and five passes defensed in his six starts last season. He's only played in 22 games in his first three years in the league due to injuries, so picking up Horn's fifth-year option was far from a guarantee. In his three years in the NFL, Horn has produced 85 tackles (60 solo), four interceptions and 13 passes defensed in 22 starts. The Panthers are taking a bit of a gamble and are hoping the defensive back can avoid the injury bug moving forward.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills have interest in trading for San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel, according to league sources. Now that the first round of the 2024 NFL draft is in the books, Niners wideout Brandon Aiyuk is less likely to be traded than Samuel, who has a 2025 salary cap number over $20 million. Not only are the Bills extremely desperate for a receiver after trading Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency this offseason, but they acquired extra picks in this year's draft by trading down twice late in the first round on Thursday night. A move to Buffalo would immediately make Samuel the team's top wideout for Pro Bowl quarterback Josh Allen and allow him to retain plenty of fantasy value given his after-the-catch abilities. Stay tuned.
From RotoBaller
Rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who was taken third overall in this year's NFL draft by the New England Patriots on Thursday night, will initially compete with veteran Jacoby Brissett for the starting job in 2024. The Patriots also have former fourth-rounder Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke on their QB depth chart. "To go back to Bill [Belichick's philosophy], I don't think many rookies are ready to just jump in and play," first-year head coach Jerod Mayo said. "At the end of the day, our philosophy is the best players will play. We will compete and the best player will start." The 21-year-old started 26 games over the last two years for the Tar Heels and threw for 8,018 yards, 63 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Maye was more productive in 2022 and has plenty to work on. Meanwhile, he has a pretty weak supporting cast in the receiver room, so fantasy managers taking the leap on him in dynasty/keeper leagues will want to be patient.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said former Texas running back Jonathon Brooks had the best pre-draft interview of any young prospect Jones has spoken to in 30 years. "We got him high, high (on our board). He's a good player," Jones said. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are getting close to a reunion with running back Ezekiel Elliott. The team's top RBs right now are Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn after Tony Pollard left in free agency this offseason, so Dallas is definitely looking to add to the position in both free agency and the draft. Brooks could come off the board at No. 56 overall to the Cowboys and could be in line to see a substantial backfield role in his first year in the NFL if he were to land in Dallas. At this point in his career, Zeke is merely a complementary weapon. The biggest question mark with Brooks is that he's coming off a torn ACL.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills traded down twice on Thursday night to drop out of the first round of the NFL draft and now hold the 33rd pick, the first selection in the second round. There are a few players they really like who are under consideration, but they've already received calls from teams considering trading up. After trading down twice on Thursday night, the Bills moved up 38 spots in the later rounds with their first trade and 59 spots with their second swap. Buffalo was criticized heavily for trading back twice late in the first round, only to see both the Chiefs and Panthers take receivers with those picks. The Bills are desperately in need of receiving help after trading Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency this offseason, but they could still select one they are high on at No. 33 overall.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots had preliminary trade discussions on San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel prior to the start of the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night, according to a source. Niners receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been in trade talks all offseason, but Samuel's name has surfaced of late, and a report on Thursday night suggested he's now more likely to be dealt by San Fran than Aiyuk. The 49ers also took wideout Ricky Pearsall with their first-round pick (31st overall) on Thursday night, suggesting they could be beefing up their receiver room in the event they trade one of Samuel or Aiyuk. The Patriots are desperate to add a receiver, especially after taking rookie quarterback Drake Maye third overall in the first round. Samuel's fantasy stock would take a big hit if he were to move to New England.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys could draft a running back on Day 2 of the 2024 NFL draft on Friday night with one of their three picks, but that choice won't change the expectation that free-agent running back Ezekiel Elliott will return to Dallas' backfield in 2024 to complement and help mentor a rookie. Dallas Morning News' Michael Gehlken is reporting that Elliott's signing with the Cowboys is increasingly imminent. Elliott's agent met with Dallas on Wednesday, and the Cowboys have been connected with the 28-year-old RB throughout the offseason. The Cowboys lost Tony Pollard to free agency this offseason but have Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn. If Elliott were to return to Big D, he'll be in a complementary role and will be an RB3/flex, at best, in fantasy after putting up a career-low 3.5 yards per carry in 2023 with New England.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Carolina Panthers selected wide receiver Xavier Legette with the final pick of round one in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Carolina Panthers moved up and secured the final pick of round one to draft Legette 32nd overall. It's a tricky landing spot for his value as he'll have an immediate chance for playing time but also a project being paired with a quarterback who has a whole lot of question marks moving forward. Legette looks like a boom or bust rookie draft pick who will likely go in round two of most rookie drafts moving forward.
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson requested a trade on Wednesday, according to his agent, Harold Lewis, as he seeks more long-term security after the two sides settled on a one-year extension last year worth $21 million. However, a source said that the Bengals are not interested in trading Hendrickson. It's not surprise that Hendrickson is looking for a new deal after posting a career-high 17.5 sacks, which was second in the NFL behind Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt. It was the highest total for a Bengals player since sacks became a statistic in 1982. He also finished 11th in pass-rush win rate as an edge rusher and created the second-most sacks (18) in the league. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson is going to be a very coveted defensive lineman in IDP fantasy formats this fall after his big 2023 campaign.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers are "more likely" to trade wide receiver Deebo Samuel than Brandon Aiyuk during this year's 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. Aiyuk's name has been mentioned in trade rumors all offseason, but now Samuel is the more likely pass-catcher to be dealt. Samuel, 28, is two years older than Aiyuk but has more versatility in the offense. However, Samuel also has a salary cap hit north of $20 million in 2025. Aiyuk is looking for a new long-term deal as he heads into the fifth and final contract of his rookie deal, but the Niners have been hesitant to give him a market deal given their other financial commitments. San Francisco took rookie pass-catcher Ricky Pearsall with the 31st overall pick in the first round on Thursday night, potentially foreshadowing a trade of either Samuel or Aiyuk in the coming days.
From RotoBaller
In recent weeks, both the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings reached out to the Los Angeles Chargers to see if they had any interest in trading quarterback Justin Herbert, according to league sources. The answer they got very quickly was "a flat no." Not only do the Chargers love Herbert, but they also would have had to take on a $63.5 million salary cap charge in 2024 at a time they have $32.3 million of cap space. Meanwhile, the Patriots took QB Drake Maye third overall and the Vikings took QB J.J. McCarthy 11th overall in the first round of this year's NFL draft. There's still a lot to like about the 26-year-old Herbert, but it's hard to ignore the fact that he lost Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason and is now in a run-first offense under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the top overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected. The Bears made this all but a certainty when they traded Justin Fields to the Steelers earlier this off-season. Williams will immediately take over the franchise and will be in a unique situation as a rookie starter with an offense that isn't exactly lacking talent. The likes of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and D'Andre Swift should be enough to keep his dynasty value high even as he learns the position. Williams should be immediately installed as a low-end QB1 and an easy pick at the top of a Superflex league rookie draft.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders decided to make Daniels the face of the franchise and took him with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's hard to blame him as he put up video game numbers last season at LSU. It's difficult to see any other quarterback with a higher ceiling than Daniels has, though it's also evident there's a low floor here as well, especially considering his small frame. If he can prove his throwing ability can match his rushing talent, the sky is truly the limit, though. Daniels could find his way to the top of Superflex rookie drafts and is an easy early second rounder in conventional rookie drafts this off-season as well.
