Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 26 10:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Samuel should get plenty of work
Wow, wow, wow. That is about all you can say about last week’s game. That might have been the greatest playoff weekend ever. Needless to say, this week has a lot to live up to. Hopefully, we can at least near those games. We’ll see. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Josh Allen is so special. He had a game for the ages last week and lost. He had nine touchdowns without a turnover in the Bills two playoff games, showing he can come up big in the big game. Allen is a special, special player. At this point, I’m raking him first overall in my quarterback rankings for 2022. One thing that gets overlooked with Allen is his ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 763 yard this season. This guy is as consistent it gets at the quarterback spot and is going to be a superstar for lots of years to come.
One player that is going to be intriguing next year is Gabriel Davis. He had one of the best games ever for a receiver in the playoffs, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. His stock is rising in a hurry, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley possibly gone next year. Davis should start opposite Stefon Diggs in the Bills explosive passing game. I’m not sure he is going to be a consistent play but expect plenty of big games. Plus, he is a great red-zone target because of his size and strength.
I think Tom Brady returns for one more season. He had a fantastic year once again and showed few signs of slowing down - if any. The Bucs were depleted at receiver by season’s end, so I think they reload there and give Brady one more shot to win it all. A healthy Chris Godwin and a new No. 3 to replace Antonio Brown would give Brady a big-time boost.
How do the Bucs let Cooper Kupp get behind him in the waning seconds of a tie game? I could not believe that one. I know Kupp is one of the best, so you can’t ignore that. But if I’m the Bucs, I do everything in my power to keep him in front of me to prevent a big play. I could not believe the end to that game. As for Kupp, he has 100-yard games six of his last eight games. He had one of the all-time great seasons for a receiver, so it was kind of a fitting end to this game for him.
And speaking of crazy finishes. You could second guess a lot with the end to that Bills/Chiefs, seeing a ton of points scored in a short time to send that game to overtime. The big one for me is seeing the Bills kick the ball into the end zone after they gook the lead with just 13 seconds left. I make the Chiefs run it back to run some time off the clock. I think they did them a favor by kicking it deep, giving Patrick Mahomes more time to do his thing. That was my big beef with how that played out. But even with that said, it was sure exciting to watch. Wow. That was probably the best football game I ever watched.
I had a hard time picking the games last week and am feeling the same way this week. These aren’t easy decisions. I have a hard time picking against the Chiefs right now, though. I never thought they would make three straight Super Bowls, but just can’t see the Bengals going on the road and winning that one. The Chiefs are playing their best football at the right time. And over in the NFC, I am going with the 49ers. They beat the Rams twice during the regular season and think they will make it a third time. San Francisco just seems a team of destiny. Their defense is playing great and I expect the offense, mainly the running game, to play much better this week. The Rams impressed last week, but I still don’t have total faith in Matthew Stafford. Maybe he showed me last week, but I don’t think the Rams run the ball well this week and Stafford will be forced to carry the offense against a very good 49ers defense.
HOT PLAYS
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is red hot right now, having touchdowns five straight games. He also has 100-yard games two of those weeks. Kelce has 23-plus fantasy points two straight and three of five. He is setup to find the end zone again this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. Samuel just keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. He has touchdowns three of four games. He has 20-plus fantasy points nine times this season. His rushing numbers make him a force at the receiver spot, producing as a dual threat for all his fantasy owners. Samuel had huge success in two games against the Rams this season. Samuel had 300 total yards and three touchdowns, catching nine passes. He should be heavily involved in the 49ers game plan.
COLD PLAYS
Cam Akers, RB, Rams. Akers is back and looks to be the clear lead back for the Rams. He ran the ball 24 times last week and has 41 carries in the Rams two playoff games. Unfortunately, the Rams running game isn’t opening many holes for him right now. Akers has 41 carries for just 103 yards in those two games. And things won’t get much easier for him this week against the 49ers. The 49ers held the Rams to 116-rushing yards in two games this year. Ie might be more of the same for Akers.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell had a breakout season, emerging as the lead back for the 49ers and having much success in that role. His lack of work in the passing game holds him back little, though, especially in games against a team that does well in holding down the run. He faces one of those teams this week, the Rams. Los Angeles held Mitchell to fewer than double-digit fantasy points in each of their games this year. Mitchell got 20-plus carries in each game but couldn’t crack double-digit points despite the work. He might be tough sledding for him again this week.
SLEEPERS
Byron Pringle, WR, Chiefs. Pringle has really emerged as a consistent threat in the Chiefs passing game. He has five receptions three straight games. And he has at least five catches four of five games. He also has three touchdowns in two playoff games this year. Patrick Mahomes has more trust in him and is looking his way a lot more often. He could be a good play again this week in a game that could be very high scoring once again.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd can disappear at times in this offense with two top weapons to compete with for targets this year. But he has still produced some big games this year. He is more than capable. He has touchdowns four of five games. He also has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. The Chiefs allowed Cole Beasley to have six receptions for 60 yards last week. Beasley plays a similar position to Boyd, so that bodes well for Boyd to have some success in this matchup.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs, 49ers/Rams.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Bucs S Antoine Winfield gets record 4-year, $84.1M extension
- Saints reach deal with veteran G Lucas Patrick
- Chiefs to open 2024 season vs. Ravens
- Former Chargers GM A.J. Smith dies at 75
- Pats coach Jerod Mayo says QB Drake Maye will 'put the work in'
- Patriots name Eliot Wolf executive VP of player personnel
- Bill Belichick gets weekly spot on ESPN's 'ManningCast'
- Broncos first-round QB Bo Nix signs rookie contract
- Cardinals, WR Zay Jones agree on one-year deal
- Aidan O'Connell is early leader in Raiders' QB competition
- It's official: Bears rookie Caleb Williams to start at QB
- Giants sign first-round pick Malik Nabers to reported $29.2M deal
- Coach Dan Campbell to miss Lions' rookie minicamp
- Raiders sign first-round pick Brock Bowers, others
- Saints sign first-round OT Taliese Fuaga to $17.3M deal
- Pro Football Hall of Fame CB Jimmy Johnson dies at 86
- Rams releasing veteran WR Ben Skowronek
- Lions GM: QB Jared Goff 'earned' extension, a high priority
- Giants sign WR Allen Robinson
- NFL to release 2024 schedule on May 15
The Paur Report
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff agreed to a four-year $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. Lions general manager Brad Holmes said the two sides were working on an extension last week, and they evidently worked quickly and got the deal done. The 2016 No. 1 overall pick by the Los Angeles Rams has been fantastic since being dealt to Detroit along with draft picks for Matthew Stafford. He led Detroit to a playoff win for the first time since 1991 last year, and he's posted 12,258 yards, 78 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions through his first 48 games with the organization. He's now under contract through the 2028 season and will remain a fringe QB1 option in fantasy football as long as his offensive weapons remain on the roster. Given his job security and upside in Detroit's offense, he should be viewed as a strong dynasty QB2 in Superflex formats.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson was spotted at voluntary offseason activities on Monday despite his recent request to be traded. It's a notable development considering the practices and workouts are entirely voluntary, but it's too early to assume it means he wants to remain with the team if he does not receive a new contract. The 2017 third-round pick by the New Orleans Saints had a monster season in 2023, racking up a Bengals' franchise record 17.5 sacks. He is the 11th-highest-paid edge rusher (average salary) and is entering the final year of his four-year, $60 million contract he signed as a free agent in 2021. The 29-year-old's situation will be worth monitoring this offseason, as there will likely be no shortage of interested suitors if the team is willing to listen to offers. With quarterback Joe Burrow already signed to a $275 million contract, and wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins seeking a new deals, Hendrickson may be expendable.
From RotoBaller
The Atlanta Falcons signed free-agent tight end Ross Dwelley on Monday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Dwelley was undrafted out of the University of San Diego in 2018, but he stuck around on the San Francisco 49ers' roster for six seasons and played in 84 games. Overall, the 29-year-old has 44 receptions for 518 yards and five receiving touchdowns to his name. He'll look to compete with Charlie Woerner and John FitzPatrick to see the field in multi-tight end sets and to be Kyle Pitts' direct backup in 2024. For now, he's nowhere near the fantasy football radar heading into his seventh NFL campaign.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent tight end Nick Vannett is signing with the Tennessee Titans, according to ESPN's Turron Davenport. The 31-year-old spent last season with the Los Angeles Chargers and caught one pass for three yards in eight games played. Vannett is a former third-round pick by the Seattle Seahawks in 2016 and has spent time with seven organizations in seven years. Overall, he's hauled in 91 of his 130 career targets for 877 yards and six touchdowns. He'll likely compete with 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle for the TE2 role in 2024, but Chigoziem Okonkwo remains the lead tight end for quarterback Will Levis after this signing.
From RotoBaller
The Detroit Lions signed free-agent tight end Parker Hesse to an undisclosed deal on Monday. Hesse entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent out of Iowa in 2021 with the Atlanta Falcons. He has spent all three of his seasons in the NFL with the Falcons and has totaled 14 receptions on 17 targets for 132 yards and no touchdowns in 28 games played (eight starts). The 28-year-old tight end played in only three games last year in Atlanta while also playing 28 snaps on special teams. In his three games played, Hesse wasn't targeted at all in the passing game. He'll merely be hoping to stick around on Detroit's roster after training camp and the preseason while providing depth at the position behind Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra.
From RotoBaller
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. reached an agreement on a four-year, $84.1 million on Monday that will make him the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history, according to sources. It's the first time in modern NFL history that a safety has set this mark. The deal was negotiated and confirmed by agent David Mulugheta of Athletes First. The new extension for the 25-year-old means Winfield won't have to play the 2024 season on the franchise tag, which would have paid him $17.1 million this year. The All-Pro safety is one of the most productive players at the defensive back position in IDP fantasy formats and had 122 tackles (76 solo), six sacks, three interceptions, 12 passes defended, six forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries in 17 stars in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers signed free-agent cornerback Anthony Averett to an undisclosed one-year deal on Sunday, according to a source. The deal for Averett comes after he worked out at the team's rookie minicamp over the weekend on a tryout basis. The 29-year-old split time between the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions last year but didn't play in any regular-season games. His last NFL action came in 2022 with the Las Vegas Raiders, when he recorded 13 tackles and a pass defended in seven games (six starts). He was originally a fourth-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens in 2018 out of Alabama. In his four seasons in Baltimore, he had 101 tackles, three interceptions and 22 passes defended. Averett will have plenty of competition at the cornerback position in training camp this summer as he tries to make the final roster.
From RotoBaller
The New York Jets agreed to terms with first-round pick Olu Fashanu on his rookie deal on Monday. The deal is for four years and $20,510,710 fully guaranteed and includes the standard fifth-year team option. It was reported on Sunday that Fashanu strained his quadriceps while running the 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine and could miss some or all of the Jets' organized team activities this offseason. The Jets took the 21-year-old with the 11th overall pick in this year's NFL draft to give veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers some more protection in 2024. Barring a setback, Fashanu should be ready to go for the start of his rookie season this fall. So far, he's been working off to the side with trainers during the team's rookie minicamp.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Cardinals have signed wide receiver Zay Jones. Dynasty Analysis: Jones has had some nice moments over his seven seasons in Buffalo, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville, though he's never posted more than 823 receiving yards or seven touchdowns in any given season. Jones could be viable opposite Marvin Harrison, Jr. if he can beat out Michael Wilson but that's no given. At this point, Jones looks like a roster worthy player but a potential roster clogger at the same time.
Carolina Panthers rookie tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders said his goal in the NFL is to be as good as former All-Pro Greg Olsen. Sanders, a converted receiver at Texas, averaged 49.5 catches a year with the Longhorns with an average of 648 yards and 3.5 touchdowns. His role with the Panthers is not clear yet, but head coach Dave Canales said on Saturday that Sanders will play both the "F" and the "Y" roles, dependent on pass plays versus 12 personnel. "He's a guy, you can move around a little bit more, maybe play him in the slot a little bit," Canales said, adding, "we look for those versatile type of tight ends." The 21-year-old was taken with the 101st overall pick in the fourth round this year but could immediately become the team's best pass-catching tight end over both Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas. Still, fantasy managers in single-year leagues in 2024 should temper expectations for Sanders in Carolina's offense.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots first-year head coach Jerod Mayo said that rookie quarterback Drake May, who was taken third overall in last month's NFL draft, "has a lot to work on." Saturday's practice featured a heavy emphasis on footwork fundamentals, with Maye spending the first few periods of practice taking snaps directly under center instead of the shotgun, which he mostly used the last two years at North Carolina. "The guy can sling it, man," said wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk, the second-round pick from the University of Washington. "He's very confident. He's a leader, very vocal; he's setting the tone in practice, trying to get guys moving around and operating at a high level." Maye is expected to compete with veteran Jacoby Brissett for starting duties in 2024. The Patriots aren't going to rush Maye's development, so he's more of a dynasty/keeper asset in fantasy this year than a redraft one.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton said he liked what he saw from rookie quarterback Bo Nix during practices at the team's rookie minicamp over the weekend. "He had two or three down the field throws [Saturday]," Payton said. "It's almost like watching a good golfer when you watch his game ... there's a patience to how he plays, the ball comes out." The Broncos took Nix 12th overall, which many thought was a massive reach, and hope he will become their next franchise signal-caller. With only Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson to compete with, Nix has a clear path to the starting job right away in his first season in the NFL, but the Broncos aren't getting ahead of themselves. "We'll figure it out, we'll figure it out ... We'll have a rotation and we'll go from there," Payton said when asked how the team's QB competition will unfold in the weeks ahead.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent tight end Tommy Sweeney signed an undisclosed deal with the Chicago Bears on Sunday after a tryout at their rookie minicamp, according to a source. Sweeney was with the New York Giants most of last year but sat out after he collapsed and had a "medical event" on the practice field. The 28-year-old was originally drafted in the seventh round (228th overall) by the Buffalo Bills in 2019 out of Boston College. All three of his NFL seasons came with Buffalo, and Sweeney has caught a total of 18 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown on 26 targets in just 24 games played (four starts). Sweeney will be competing for a roster spot in training camp this summer among a tight end group in Chicago that already includes Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Stephen Carlson and rookie Brenden Bates.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said the team will use a running back by committee approach this season, unlike the feature back approach used during RB Ezekiel Elliott's first tour of duty with the team. McCarthy said that he has not seen any drop off in the way Elliott moves but thinks it wouldn't be fair to give him a workload similar to what he saw in the early seasons of his career.
Fantasy Spin: Elliott had the least productive season of his career with New England in 2023, with career lows in carries (184), rushing yards (642), touchdowns (three) and yards per carry (3.5). Although he is expected to have a larger role in the Dallas offense in 2024, his days as an RB1 fantasy option are likely over. Elliott is most likely to see the field in short-yardage and goal line situations, making him worthy of consideration as an RB3 in many fantasy leagues. RBs Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn are behind Elliott on the Cowboys' depth chart but their fantasy value remains uncertain, as it remains to be seen how many offensive snaps they will see in a typical game.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent linebacker Bud Dupree has reportedly signed a two-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers. Dupree met with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons in addition to the Chargers. The 31-year-old has played with both the Steelers and Falcons during his career so it appears Dupree was looking for a new home. The veteran linebacker still has something left in the tank. He recorded 6.5 sacks last season with Atlanta. Those 6.5 sacks were the most for Dupree since the 2020 season. His addition should be a solid boost for this defensive unit heading into next season.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have released wide receiver Phillip Dorsett. The veteran wideout was already a longshot to make the roster. The 31-year-old joined the Broncos last season and failed to make a catch during his two appearances. Dorsett has bounced around quite a bit throughout his time in the league. Dorsett is viewed more as a depth option than an actual impact player on a roster. He could sign elsewhere before the season starts, but his chances of having fantasy value are low.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Albert Wilson has decided to retire from professional football after seven seasons. Wilson joined the Kansas City Chiefs as an undrafted free agent ahead of the 2014 season. He spent four seasons with the Chiefs, and Wilson achieved a career-high 554 receiving yards during his final season with the team. After that, Wilson joined the Miami Dolphins for the next three seasons. He was fairly lackluster during his time with the Dolphins. He bounced around with the Raiders and Vikings but hasn't seen the field since the 2021 season. Wilson will finish his career with 218 receptions, 2,499 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is under investigation in relation to a night club assault,. Dynasty Analysis: An adventurous off-season continues for Rice, who already has a massive legal problem in relation to a street racing incident. This new investigation is looking like it's going to take some time to unravel but it's clear a suspension (and possibly a lengthy one) is coming sooner rather than later. Rice is a hold for now as his value is clearly in flux.
Dynasty | The Cowboys have released wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Dynasty Analysis: Marty B will likely attempt to resume his comeback with another team as Dallas just couldn't hold on to him. Bryant was once a highly regarded dynasty asset but suspensions derailed his career before it could really even get going. Bryant will look to latch on elsewhere but it's hard to see him being a worthwhile dynasty pickup until he makes a final roster.
Dynasty | The Giants have signed wide receiver Allen Robinson. Dynasty Analysis: Robinson had a 102/1,250/6 season for the Bears in 2020 but has fallen off the face of the earth since with just over 1,000 receiving yards and a total of four touchdowns in the three years since, including stops with Chicago, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. Robinson is a fringe roster candidate at best at this point and while he has a chance to re-emerge in New York, don't hold your breath.
