Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 26 10:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Samuel should get plenty of work
Wow, wow, wow. That is about all you can say about last week’s game. That might have been the greatest playoff weekend ever. Needless to say, this week has a lot to live up to. Hopefully, we can at least near those games. We’ll see. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Josh Allen is so special. He had a game for the ages last week and lost. He had nine touchdowns without a turnover in the Bills two playoff games, showing he can come up big in the big game. Allen is a special, special player. At this point, I’m raking him first overall in my quarterback rankings for 2022. One thing that gets overlooked with Allen is his ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 763 yard this season. This guy is as consistent it gets at the quarterback spot and is going to be a superstar for lots of years to come.
One player that is going to be intriguing next year is Gabriel Davis. He had one of the best games ever for a receiver in the playoffs, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. His stock is rising in a hurry, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley possibly gone next year. Davis should start opposite Stefon Diggs in the Bills explosive passing game. I’m not sure he is going to be a consistent play but expect plenty of big games. Plus, he is a great red-zone target because of his size and strength.
I think Tom Brady returns for one more season. He had a fantastic year once again and showed few signs of slowing down - if any. The Bucs were depleted at receiver by season’s end, so I think they reload there and give Brady one more shot to win it all. A healthy Chris Godwin and a new No. 3 to replace Antonio Brown would give Brady a big-time boost.
How do the Bucs let Cooper Kupp get behind him in the waning seconds of a tie game? I could not believe that one. I know Kupp is one of the best, so you can’t ignore that. But if I’m the Bucs, I do everything in my power to keep him in front of me to prevent a big play. I could not believe the end to that game. As for Kupp, he has 100-yard games six of his last eight games. He had one of the all-time great seasons for a receiver, so it was kind of a fitting end to this game for him.
And speaking of crazy finishes. You could second guess a lot with the end to that Bills/Chiefs, seeing a ton of points scored in a short time to send that game to overtime. The big one for me is seeing the Bills kick the ball into the end zone after they gook the lead with just 13 seconds left. I make the Chiefs run it back to run some time off the clock. I think they did them a favor by kicking it deep, giving Patrick Mahomes more time to do his thing. That was my big beef with how that played out. But even with that said, it was sure exciting to watch. Wow. That was probably the best football game I ever watched.
I had a hard time picking the games last week and am feeling the same way this week. These aren’t easy decisions. I have a hard time picking against the Chiefs right now, though. I never thought they would make three straight Super Bowls, but just can’t see the Bengals going on the road and winning that one. The Chiefs are playing their best football at the right time. And over in the NFC, I am going with the 49ers. They beat the Rams twice during the regular season and think they will make it a third time. San Francisco just seems a team of destiny. Their defense is playing great and I expect the offense, mainly the running game, to play much better this week. The Rams impressed last week, but I still don’t have total faith in Matthew Stafford. Maybe he showed me last week, but I don’t think the Rams run the ball well this week and Stafford will be forced to carry the offense against a very good 49ers defense.
HOT PLAYS
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is red hot right now, having touchdowns five straight games. He also has 100-yard games two of those weeks. Kelce has 23-plus fantasy points two straight and three of five. He is setup to find the end zone again this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. Samuel just keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. He has touchdowns three of four games. He has 20-plus fantasy points nine times this season. His rushing numbers make him a force at the receiver spot, producing as a dual threat for all his fantasy owners. Samuel had huge success in two games against the Rams this season. Samuel had 300 total yards and three touchdowns, catching nine passes. He should be heavily involved in the 49ers game plan.
COLD PLAYS
Cam Akers, RB, Rams. Akers is back and looks to be the clear lead back for the Rams. He ran the ball 24 times last week and has 41 carries in the Rams two playoff games. Unfortunately, the Rams running game isn’t opening many holes for him right now. Akers has 41 carries for just 103 yards in those two games. And things won’t get much easier for him this week against the 49ers. The 49ers held the Rams to 116-rushing yards in two games this year. Ie might be more of the same for Akers.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell had a breakout season, emerging as the lead back for the 49ers and having much success in that role. His lack of work in the passing game holds him back little, though, especially in games against a team that does well in holding down the run. He faces one of those teams this week, the Rams. Los Angeles held Mitchell to fewer than double-digit fantasy points in each of their games this year. Mitchell got 20-plus carries in each game but couldn’t crack double-digit points despite the work. He might be tough sledding for him again this week.
SLEEPERS
Byron Pringle, WR, Chiefs. Pringle has really emerged as a consistent threat in the Chiefs passing game. He has five receptions three straight games. And he has at least five catches four of five games. He also has three touchdowns in two playoff games this year. Patrick Mahomes has more trust in him and is looking his way a lot more often. He could be a good play again this week in a game that could be very high scoring once again.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd can disappear at times in this offense with two top weapons to compete with for targets this year. But he has still produced some big games this year. He is more than capable. He has touchdowns four of five games. He also has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. The Chiefs allowed Cole Beasley to have six receptions for 60 yards last week. Beasley plays a similar position to Boyd, so that bodes well for Boyd to have some success in this matchup.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs, 49ers/Rams.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Pats coach Jerod Mayo says QB Drake Maye will 'put the work in'
- Patriots name Eliot Wolf executive VP of player personnel
- Bill Belichick gets weekly spot on ESPN's 'ManningCast'
- Broncos first-round QB Bo Nix signs rookie contract
- Cardinals, WR Zay Jones agree on one-year deal
- Aidan O'Connell is early leader in Raiders' QB competition
- It's official: Bears rookie Caleb Williams to start at QB
- Giants sign first-round pick Malik Nabers to reported $29.2M deal
- Coach Dan Campbell to miss Lions' rookie minicamp
- Raiders sign first-round pick Brock Bowers, others
- Saints sign first-round OT Taliese Fuaga to $17.3M deal
- Pro Football Hall of Fame CB Jimmy Johnson dies at 86
- Rams releasing veteran WR Ben Skowronek
- Lions GM: QB Jared Goff 'earned' extension, a high priority
- Giants sign WR Allen Robinson
- NFL to release 2024 schedule on May 15
- Broncos release QB Ben DiNucci
- Chiefs' Rashee Rice suspect in alleged assault in Dallas
- Broncos' 'Orange Crush' DC Joe Collier dies at 91
- Giants add QB Nathan Rourke
- Fantasy Six Pack: Fantasy Football Rankings | Post-NFL Draft Update
The Paur Report
Free-agent linebacker Bud Dupree has reportedly signed a two-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers. Dupree met with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons in addition to the Chargers. The 31-year-old has played with both the Steelers and Falcons during his career so it appears Dupree was looking for a new home. The veteran linebacker still has something left in the tank. He recorded 6.5 sacks last season with Atlanta. Those 6.5 sacks were the most for Dupree since the 2020 season. His addition should be a solid boost for this defensive unit heading into next season.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have released wide receiver Phillip Dorsett. The veteran wideout was already a longshot to make the roster. The 31-year-old joined the Broncos last season and failed to make a catch during his two appearances. Dorsett has bounced around quite a bit throughout his time in the league. Dorsett is viewed more as a depth option than an actual impact player on a roster. He could sign elsewhere before the season starts, but his chances of having fantasy value are low.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Albert Wilson has decided to retire from professional football after seven seasons. Wilson joined the Kansas City Chiefs as an undrafted free agent ahead of the 2014 season. He spent four seasons with the Chiefs, and Wilson achieved a career-high 554 receiving yards during his final season with the team. After that, Wilson joined the Miami Dolphins for the next three seasons. He was fairly lackluster during his time with the Dolphins. He bounced around with the Raiders and Vikings but hasn't seen the field since the 2021 season. Wilson will finish his career with 218 receptions, 2,499 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is under investigation in relation to a night club assault,. Dynasty Analysis: An adventurous off-season continues for Rice, who already has a massive legal problem in relation to a street racing incident. This new investigation is looking like it's going to take some time to unravel but it's clear a suspension (and possibly a lengthy one) is coming sooner rather than later. Rice is a hold for now as his value is clearly in flux.
Dynasty | The Cowboys have released wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Dynasty Analysis: Marty B will likely attempt to resume his comeback with another team as Dallas just couldn't hold on to him. Bryant was once a highly regarded dynasty asset but suspensions derailed his career before it could really even get going. Bryant will look to latch on elsewhere but it's hard to see him being a worthwhile dynasty pickup until he makes a final roster.
Dynasty | The Giants have signed wide receiver Allen Robinson. Dynasty Analysis: Robinson had a 102/1,250/6 season for the Bears in 2020 but has fallen off the face of the earth since with just over 1,000 receiving yards and a total of four touchdowns in the three years since, including stops with Chicago, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. Robinson is a fringe roster candidate at best at this point and while he has a chance to re-emerge in New York, don't hold your breath.
Dynasty | The Cardinals have signed wide receiver Zay Jones. Dynasty Analysis: Jones has had some nice moments over his seven seasons in Buffalo, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville, though he's never posted more than 823 receiving yards or seven touchdowns in any given season. Jones could be viable opposite Marvin Harrison, Jr. if he can beat out Michael Wilson but that's no given. At this point, Jones looks like a roster worthy player but a potential roster clogger at the same time.
Free-agent wide receiver Jarvis Landry spent an hour running around catching passes as a tryout player at the Jacksonville Jaguars' rookie minicamp on Friday. Landry was one of the league's top receivers in the first seven years of his career, making five Pro Bowls with the Dolphins and Browns. He led the NFL in catches in 2017 with 112 and had three 1,000-yard seasons in that span. But Landry only played in 12 games in 2021 with Cleveland due to a knee sprain, and he had a career-low in catches (52) and receiving yards (570). He played in just nine games with the Saints in 2022 due to an ankle injury and sat out in 2023. Landry looked healthy on Friday and was pleased with his workout, but it remains to be seen if the Jags will add him as receiver depth in addition to Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and first-round rookie Brian Thomas.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels didn't have any "wow" moments during his first rookie minicamp practice, but he still managed to impress fellow rookies and the coaching staff. "He's a stud," third-round receiver Luke McCaffrey said. "I know he's one heck of a quarterback and a lot of fun to play with from a personality standpoint. I've had a blast in these 24 hours with him. He's just fun to be around; he's good energy." Daniels was the No. 2 overall pick in last year's NFL draft and is expected to take over as the team's starter under center right away in Week 1 this fall. The 23-year-old former LSU Tiger is a dual-threat QB with plenty of athleticism, and he could be the most NFL-ready signal-caller of all the rookie QBs not named Caleb Williams. In Year 1, Daniels will be a low-end QB2 in fantasy with considerable upside for his rushing ability.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie first-round wide receiver Xavier Legette, who was taken 32nd overall in this year's NFL draft last month, has had trouble connecting with the team's rookie quarterbacks so far in rookie minicamp practices. Legette has always had the size-speed combination -- his 4.39-second 40-yard dash tied for the sixth-fastest among wideouts at this year's scouting combine -- but he kept hearing that he had to improve as a route-runner as he took part in Senior Bowl practices and the combine. At 6-foot-1, 221 pounds, some questioned Legette's ability to drop his hips and quickly get out of his breaks. Legette has been compared physically to DK Metcalf, who Panthers head coach Dave Canales worked with in Seattle. At the very least, Legette will give second-year QB Bryce Young a speed, big-bodied target deep down the field in 2024, but expecting much more than that might be unwise in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn said that second-round rookie defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton (foot) has an injury to his left foot -- not the same foot as his college season but the same injury -- and has surgery scheduled for next week. "Not giving any timelines for that," Quinn said. The 21-year-old had surgery in January on his right foot to fix a partial Jones fracture, but now he'll be forced to undergo a similar surgery on his other foot. It's not what you want to hear from a high draft pick as they head into their first NFL offseason. It remains to be seen when Newton will be able to practice with the team. Any missed time in training camp this summer would be a big blow to his development as he looks to carve out a role on the interior of Washington's defensive line in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie first-round wide receiver Rome Odunze (hamstring) is dealing with hamstring tightness and will sit out of Saturday's rookie minicamp practice. It's likely nothing to worry about in the long run, but it's also not a great start for Odunze as he looks to get going as a top-10 pick in this year's NFL draft. It's something to keep an eye on with the 21-year-old from Washington as we get deeper into the offseason and closer to training camp. The Bears took Odunze at No. 9 overall to give rookie quarterback Caleb Williams more weapons in the passing attack in addition to established veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Odunze was extremely productive in college and is ultra-athletic on the football field, but it's going to be tough for him to produce consistent numbers in Chicago's offense in his rookie season as long as both Moore and Allen stay healthy.
From RotoBaller
The Tennessee Titans signed first-round offensive tackle JC Latham to his four-year, fully-guaranteed rookie deal on Friday worth $26.04 million. The deal was confirmed by his agents Drew Rosenhaus, Ryan Matha and Jason Rosenhaus. The contract also includes the standard fifth-year player option for first-round picks. The 21-year-old offensive lineman was taken by the Titans with the seventh overall pick out of Alabama. He will be a huge upgrade for an offensive line that was in need of serious help this offseason and should start from Day 1 in his rookie season, at least at right tackle. The addition of Latham in 2024 should have an immediate positive impact in fantasy for young quarterback Will Levis and the rest of Tennessee's option as they enter their first season without workhorse back Derrick Henry.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos signed rookie quarterback Bo Nix to his rookie deal on Friday, according to a source. As is the case with all first-round selections, Nix will have a fifth-year team option attached to his first NFL contract. Needing to add more competition to their QB room this offseason after getting rid of Russell Wilson, the Broncos reached for Nix, the former Oregon signal-caller, with the 12th overall pick in last month's NFL draft. The Broncos have admitted that Nix could probably benefit from sitting and learning a year, but it's not like Denver already has a veteran starter in place. Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson will all compete for the starting gig in training camp and the preseason. At best, Nix would be a low-end QB2 in superflex leagues if he's starting out of the gates in Week 1 in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders signed veteran Gardner Minshew to a two-year, $25 million contract this offseason, yet 2023 fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell is the early favorite to handle QB1 duties in 2024, according to head coach Antonio Pierce. "Aidan's earned the right to go out there and earn the first snap," Pierce said. "What he's done this offseason -- changing his body, his work ethic, being here every day, blocking out the outside noise. He's not worried about anything. I'm excited." O'Connell replaced Jimmy Garoppolo in the middle of last season and threw for 2,219 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. The team went 5-5 during his 10 starts. Although the job sounds like it's his to lose, Minshew will also likely have the chance to battle for the starting role this offseason. The 27-year-old has thrown for 59 touchdowns and 24 interceptions during his five-year career and has looked like at least a mid-level starter at times. Whoever wins the job will get to throw to Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers this year, so either could be a solid QB2 in Superflex formats.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) is working his way back from a Week 8 Achilles tear from last season, and reports out of Atlanta suggest he is making great progress. "Kirk is every day improving," Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. "He's been doing all those things, he's been throwing, he's been out there pretty much full-go. Now, we got him in a limited basis, obviously 'cause he's still in his rehab and his treatment and all those types of things." The 35-year-old signal-caller has not been dropping back behind an offensive line or facing a rush, but he's evidently looked good on his dropbacks and reps with his new wide receiver group. Despite Atlanta selecting Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Cousins remains the clear starter in 2024 as long as he holds up. The four-time Pro Bowler has thrown for at least 4,000 yards seven times in his nine-year career as a starter, while the Falcons have not had a 4,000-yard passer since Matt Ryan in 2020. If Cousins isn't limited by his major injury, he'll remain a fringe QB1 option surrounded by Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and company.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Zay Jones is signing with the Arizona Cardinals, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The 29-year-old went on visits with the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys this week, but he ultimately landed in a spot where he can compete for targets right away. Jones was released by the Jacksonville Jaguars after they selected LSU wideout Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but there's a real chance his situation is better in Arizona. Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to occupy the WR1 role right away, but Jones is almost certainly slated to start in three-wide sets, and he might even beat out Michael Wilson to start in two-wide sets. He and tight end Trey McBride could battle it out to be Kyler Murray's No. 2 option in the passing game. Pencil in Jones as at least a deep league flex option in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers released veteran running back Tarik Cohen, who was attempting a comeback from a series of injuries that derailed his time as a Pro Bowl return man with the Chicago Bears. Cohen hasn't played in a regular-season game in the NFL since 2020, and it remains to be seen if he'll latch on with another club this offseason. The 28-year-old was a former fourth-round pick in 2017 by the Bears out of North Carolina A&T. He was never much of a ball-carrier at 5-foot-6, 181 pounds, but he excelled as a returner and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Cohen suffered an ACL tear in Week 3 of 2020 and also tore his Achilles in May of 2022. He spent most of last year on Carolina's practice squad but missed two months with a hamstring injury.
From RotoBaller
When asked who would be calling the team's offensive plays in 2024, Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson remained non-committal. "Don't play a game until September. So, we've got some time," Pederson said. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor was responsible for calling most of the team's plays in a disappointing 2023 season, so Pederson is seriously considering taking back those duties in 2024. A lot of the team's offensive struggles in the second half of last year had to do with the fact that quarterback Trevor Lawrence was playing injured, and that they were missing one of their top receivers in Christian Kirk. The Jaguars finished with 339.5 total yards per game (13th in the league) and 22.2 points per game (tied for 13th).
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) is working through an injury, so the team hasn't been able to see much from him yet after adding him in free agency this offseason. Davis missed the postseason last year with the Buffalo Bills due to a knee injury that he suffered in the Week 18 season finale against the Miami Dolphins, and apparently it's still an issue. While we don't expect the injury to keep him from participating in training camp or being ready for the start of the 2024 season, it's bad news for a player looking to learn a new offense in Jacksonville. The 25-year-old is another strong offensive situation in Jacksonville, but he'll face competition for targets from Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas and tight end Evan Engram, likely making him a boom/bust fantasy option yet again.
From RotoBaller
