att | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 23 9:32am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Tua is setup for another big week

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. And my Thanksgiving Lineup Prep is my favorite column to write. I like to list all the things I’m thankful for fantasy wise. It is a fun column to write and I’m excited to get it started. So without further ado, here we go. . . .

I am thankful for rebound seasons. I have tons of stock in Saquon Barkley this year and thrilled to see him running like the Saquon of old. Sure, it was a little risk to put a ton of stock in him to get it going again, but sometimes you have to take some risks if you hope to hit it big. And right now, all those Barkley owners are feeling pretty good about taking him come draft day.

I am thankful for different draft strategies working for fantasy owners. There isn’t a set strategy that works every time come draft day, which I think makes this game that much more fun to play. You can use all different strategies and still have success. I think this year is a great example of this. The running back spot has been really frustrating this year, but the ones that have played well have played really well. So if you got a Austin Ekeler or Barkley, you are probably having a good season. But the teams that avoided running back early come draft day probably are having plenty of success as well with Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson having huge seasons. So going receiver early has worked as well, especially if you were able to nab a guy like Dameon Pierce or Josh Jacobs later in your drafts. And those owners that took Travis Kelce in the first or second round have enjoyed plenty of success as well as he is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the tight ends this year. So as you can see, all sorts of different strategies have led to success this year. It seems the case every year, making this game so fun to play.

I am thankful that players and the NFL are embracing the fantasy community. You see so much more engagement from players when it comes to fantasy football, especially a guy like Austin Ekeler. This is great news for the fantasy industry and players. This game should continue to evolve and flourish with guys like Ekeler leading the way as a strong advocate for the game.

I am thankful the NFL trade market is a lot more exciting these days. I can’t remember a deadline that brought so much activity as this past year. It was great to see a guy like Christian McCaffrey get a fresh start in a much better offense. It is rare to see such a big-name player get traded in the NFL, but maybe this year will open the door for that to happen more often during the season. It sure made for an exciting deadline this year. Let’s hope that is the norm going forward.

I am thankful for all the up to the minute info you can find on Twitter when it comes to injuries, trades, and any other breaking news that can impact your fantasy lineup. It is amazing how quickly news travels these days. This makes things so much easier than it used to when it comes to setting your lineups and rankings for the week. Say what you want about Twitter, but it has been a huge blessing to the fantasy community. Just a great way to engage and get up to the minute information.

I am thankful for underdog stories. It is great to see players exceed expectations and help fantasy teams when no on thought that might be the case. The big one this year is Geno Smith. He is seventh overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and outplaying the player he replaced, Russell Wilson, by a wide margin. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming outside of Smith himself. It has been a great story.

I am thankful for rookies. Everyone loves a rookie, but especially a rookie that helps fantasy teams. And there are plenty of rookies that are making an impact this year. That seems to be the case every year, but rookie running backs have been especially good this year despite none of them being super hyped come draft day. Dameon Pierce, Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall look to be top fantasy players for years to come.

Lastly, I am thankful for you, the users of RealTime Fantasy Sports. This is a great community to be a part of and I am super thankful to be just a small part of that. Thank you so much for helping make RTSports the best fantasy football community on the web. Have a great Thanksgiving!

News and Notes: The Broncos released running back Melvin Gordon on Monday. This was a surprise, but fumbling issues and a lack of consistency likely ended his time in Denver. Latavius Murray should get first shot to start for Denver going forward. . . . .The Panthers named Sam Darnold the starting quarterback for Week 12. He takes over for Baker Mayfield, who has struggled much of the year. . . . .The Rams released running back Darrell Henderson on Tuesday. This was a bit of a surprise, leaving Cam Akers and Kyren Williams the likely players to split the carries at running back for the Rams going forward.

HOT PLAYS

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys. The return of Ezekiel Elliott didn’t slow down Pollard. He still played 54 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Elliott. Pollard has 21-plus fantasy point three straight games. He has topped 100 total yards four straight games. And in Week 3 against the Giants, who he is playing this week, Pollard had a 100-yard rushing game. He is a must start for fantasy teams right now.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings. Hockenson didn’t have a great game his last time out, but the entire Vikings offense was a mess. The good new is he was still targeted nine times in the game. He has at least nine targets three straight games with the Vikings. He is getting a ton of weekly looks with his new team. He has double-digit fantasy points five times this season, showing he is capable of the big game. He can rebound this week against the Patriots, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. New England allows the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Tagovailoa has become about a must start for fantasy teams on a weekly basis. He is playing his best football right now, being third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has three straight games with three touchdown passes and hit the 300-yard mark two of those games. He has 26-plus fantasy points three consecutive games. He can reach those numbers again this week against the Texans, a team that allows 23 points per game.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker had one of his worst games of the season since becoming starter his last time out, rushing 10 times for just 17 yards. But the good news was he was still involved in the passing game, catching six passes for 55 yards on eight targets. This really helps his fantasy floor. He has at least 12 fantasy points six straight games. Look for him to get back to his big ways against a bad Raiders defense in Week 12. Las Vegas allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders. McLaurin isn’t having quite the season most hoped, but it hasn’t been all bad by any means, especially since Taylor Heinicke has become the starter. He has 100-yard games two of four and been targeted at least eight times five straight. He has 17-plus fantasy points three of five games. He remains capable of the huge game any given week. And a matchup against the Falcons this week is a great one for McLaurin. Atlanta allows the most fantasy points to receivers and are 29th overall against the pass.

COLD PLAYS

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. Jones has played better football lately, but still hasn’t been great all year. He has six games with fewer than 20 fantasy points. And one of his favorite targets in the passing game, Wan’Dale Robinson, is now out for the season. This is not good news for Jones, especially this week against a very good Cowboys defense. Jones scored just 16.7 fantasy points in Week 3 against Dallas. He passed for just 196 yards and didn’t score a touchdown. Go with better options in Week 12.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara has been pretty quiet lately, especially on the ground. He has fewer than 50-rushing yard three straight games. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. He isn’t even getting enough work in the passing game to make up for those poor rushing totals. It could be more of the same this week against a very good 49ers defense. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank first overall against the run, allowing just 81.1-rushing yards per game.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers. Johnson is super talented but just isn’t getting it done for fantasy teams right now. He is not stretching the field at all, leading to poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points four of five games. He has less than 50 yards four of those games. His season high in yards is just 84. He is a hard player to trust, especially this week against the Colts. Indy allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank seventh overall against the pass.

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon had one of his worst games of the season last week, scoring just 9.2 fantasy points. He ran seven times for just 20 yards. He actually has fewer than 30-rushing yards two of three games. The Bengals are having some issues running the ball and it could be more of the same this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs and rank second against the run. Tennesse has not allowed 100-rushing yards since Week 2.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is finally starting to show some signs of life as the Bears offense is heating up. He has scores two of three games. The concern is he has fewer than 50 yards two of those games. He still isn’t getting a ton of yards or catches despite the Bears playing well. And now Justin Fields is hurt and iffy to play, which is a big concern for Mooney. He might be a player to avoid this week against the Jets, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank 10th overall against the pass.

SLEEPERS

Kalif Raymond, WR, Lions. Raymond has played at least 82% of the snaps six straight games. He is getting a lot of playing time in the Lions offense. And he has at least three receptions three straight games. His numbers aren’t off the charts but consistent. He has a chance for a lot of targets once again against the Bills. The Lions are likely going to be playing from behind this game, needing to throw often. Raymond could be a sneaky WR3 for fantasy teams in Week 12.

Rachaad White, RB, Bucs. White played more snaps than Leonard Fournette his last time out for the first time all season. White played 64 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Fournette. There could be a changing of the guard going on in Tampa. And White is playing well with his chances, hitting the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career his last game. If he gets that workload again this week against the Browns, White can produce big once again. Cleveland allows the second most fantasy points to running backs.

Parris Campbell, WR, Colts. Campbell is a different receiver with Matt Ryan at the helm at quarterback. He has 12 receptions his last two games and had 17 receptions during a two-game stretch with Ryan starting earlier this season. Ryan targeted him 23 times during those two games. He has real fantasy value with Ryan starting in Indy. He should do well again this week against the Steelers, a team playing better defensively but still allow the second most fantasy points to receivers. Pittsburgh is dead last against the pass, allowing 272.1-passing yards per game.

Foster Moreau, TE, Raiders. Moreau hasn’t done a whole lot in a starting role for the Raiders, but does have a double-digit game two weeks ago against the Colts. He has at least four targets four of five games. He is getting some weekly chances and producing decent number. He could hit that double-digit fantasy point total this week against the Seahawks. Seattle is not good against the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Moreau could be a good streaming option for fantasy teams.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard actually played the most snaps for the Panthers last week, playing 40 percent compared to 39 percent for D’Onta Foreman. Hubbard had just six touches in the game, but two were receptions, which helps his fantasy floor. He is the better pass catcher of the two, which helps him get on the field. The Panthers could struggle to run the ball against a good Broncos defense, so Hubbard could be on the field more once again as the Panthers might throw the ball more often. He could be worth a look in deeper formats for fantasy teams.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bills/Lions, Chargers/Cardinals, Raiders/Seahawks, Packers/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: Bears/Jets, Broncos/Panthers, Steelers/Colts.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 12

The Paur Report