ALLSTAR FOOTBALL LEAGUE | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lineup Prep: Week 7

Wed Oct 20 10:14am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Henderson is an elite fantasy back

This should be a really interesting fantasy week. There are several top fantasy players off this week, causing for some holes in lineups. But for the teams playing, several are huge favorites to win their games this week. So that means we could still get some high-scoring fantasy games despite all the players off. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

Najee Harris has a chance to be really, really good. He has an awful offensive line right now and his quarterback play hasn’t been good at all. Despite that, Harris is fourth overall in fantasy running back scoring. His volume has been through the roof this year. If the Steelers just make a few improvements the next few seasons, watch out for Harris. He is super talented with a really bright future.

I don’t think the return of Calvin Ridley will be a big issue for Kyle Pitts going forward. Pitts dominated work in Week 5 with Ridley out, getting 10 targets. But he has 19 targets his last two games and at least eight targets three of five. He is just getting on the same page with Matt Ryan and a matchup nightmare for the opposition. I really think Pitts is going to have a big finish to his rookie season, coming out of this bye week.

Owners are freaking out over the bye weeks this week. I totally understand it. I have seen some experts posting on Twitter or writing that owners should have drafted better to not let this happen. I don’t agree with that line of thinking. I think getting the best team possible, regardless of bye weeks is the way to go. If you have to bite the bullet one week, so be it. I rarely look at bye weeks during the draft these days. I just try to draft the best team possible. There is so much that can happen during a fantasy season to impact lineups. I just think you can adjust as the season progresses. Now once the season starts and the bye weeks get near, I start to prepare. But as for before the season, forget about it.

I hate to say this but Jalen Hurts has a long way to go as an NFL quarterback. For fantasy purposes, he is just fine. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and has at least 23 fantasy points every game. His consistency is amazing. But he misses a lot of throws during a game and needs a ton of work at the position. I worry about him keeping a starting job past this season if he doesn’t start making some big strides in a hurry.

You have to wonder what the heck the Jaguars were thinking when they took running back Travis Etienne in the first round of this year’s draft. James Robinson is a really good back and one of the top starters in the league in my opinion. The Jaguars have so many needs that wasting a pick on another running back made little sense. And I think Robinson is driving this point home even more with his great play lately.

I know the season isn’t over but I will be the first to admit a mistake when I make one. And I was off on Derrick Henry this year. I was just worried about his huge workload in recent seasons and thought a regression could be coming either in performance or because of injury. I did a huge research article on workloads for running backs and the numbers weren’t favorable for Henry at all. Well, Henry proved me wrong and is the top fantasy back in the game right now. He is off to a monster start, having three games with 30-plus fantasy points. Henry has about 40 more fantasy points than the second rated fantasy back. That is a huge disparity. He has been the difference maker for fantasy owners to start the year. Swing and a miss for me on that one.

News and Notes: The Jaguars released kicker Josh Lambo on Tuesday. He has been a healthy scratch the last two weeks. Matthew Wright has emerged as the starting kicker for the Jaguars and will keep that job moving forward. . . . .The Saints signed running back Lamar Miller to their practice squad on Tuesday. Miller gives the team a little more depth at the position, which is banged up at the moment. . . . .Chicago signed running back Chris Thompson to their practice squad on Tuesday. The Bears are another team looking for depth at running back because of injury.

HOT PLAYS

A.J. Green, WR, Cardinals. Green has been consistent as the starting receiver opposite DeAndre Hopkins. He has five receptions three of four games and at least 13 fantasy points four of five. He is getting it done on a weekly basis. And Green led the Cardinals receivers in playing time last week, playing 91 percent of the snaps. He has been on the field for at least 79 percent of the snaps every game this season. Green should keep it going this week against a Texans team allowing 249.8-passing yards per game.

Damien Harris, RB, Patriots. Harris had his second 100-yard game of the season last week and has touchdowns two straight games. He also has at least 14 carries four of six games. He isn’t catching many passes but his rushing yards and scores make him a viable No. 2 running back for fantasy teams. He has a chance to find the end zone for a third straight game this week, playing the Jets. New York has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans. Derrick Henry continues to carry the Titans offense right now, but Tannehill seems close to that big game. He hasn’t really had one yet this year. But a game against the Chiefs seems a prime time to use Tannehill. This game should be a shootout with a ton of fantasy points on both sides. Tannehill does have two games this season with 40 or more pass attempts. If that happens this week, look for a big game from Tannehill against the Chiefs. Kansas City allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams. Henderson scored multiple touchdowns for the first time all season lsat week. He had 107 total yards and two scores. Henderson has been as consistent as any fantasy back all season. He has at least 15.7 fantasy points every game. His floor has been very high. Expect more good things from him this week, playing the Lions. Detroit is 26th against the run and allow the second most fantasy points to running backs.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons. Ridley is back from his time off for personal reasons. He should be just fine going forward as the No. 1 target in the Falcons passing attack. Ridley’s high in yards just year is 80 but he is getting the looks having at least seven receptions three straight games. He is ready for one of his huge games. That huge game might come this week against the Dolphins, a team with all sorts of injuries to key players in their secondary. Miami allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and rank 29th overall against the pass.

COLD PLAYS

Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. Mayfield scored multiple touchdowns last week but still failed to top 20 fantasy points. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points four of six games. He also is battling a shoulder injury, which is another concern. Mayfield just isn’t getting it done right now for his fantasy owners. And despite the team being without their top two running backs this week, Mayfield remains a risky play. His production just hasn’t been there this season. Plus, he plays a Broncos team that allows the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots. Meyers has been a dependable option this year, having double-digit fantasy points four of six games. He has been consistent, racking up the catches on a weekly basis. He has at least four receptions every games. Unfortunately, he has yet to score a touchdown and has fewer than 50 yards three games. He has been pretty mediocre many weeks. Meyers might have another one of those down games this week against the Jets. New York has allowed just four passing touchdowns all year and give up the fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. Gordon has been really mediocre since Week 3. He had 15-plus points two of his first three games but hasn’t topped that mark since. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of his last three games. It just seems a matter of time before rookie Javonte Williams starts cutting into his playing time even more. We would steer clear of Gordon this week against the Browns. Cleveland is sixth overall against the run and allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Henry Ruggs, WR, Raiders. Ruggs is having a much better second season, nearing 450-receiving yards after six games. He has been a little hit or miss, though. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of six games. He doesn’t get a ton of weekly targets. Ruggs has just three receptions three straight games and his season high in receptions is five. We think this week might be one of his down weeks once again, likely facing Darius Slay in coverage. The Eagles also allow the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Devontae Booker, RB, Giants. Booker got the start last week and plenty of work in that role. He ran 12 times for just 41 yards, though, and caught four passes for 28 yards. He didn’t do much with his workload against a good Rams defense. We would not surprise to see him have a similar game in Week 7 against the Panthers. Carolina is another team good against the run. The Panthers allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs.

SLEEPERS

Allen Lazard, WR, Packers. Lazard has not topped 50 yards all season but scored his first touchdown of the season last week. He also has multiple receptions three straight games. Lazard has played at least 79 percent of the snaps each of his last three games. He is on the field and getting some weekly looks. It just seems a matter of time before he has a breakout game. And we think that game might be this week against Washington, a team that can’t stop anyone through the air right now and allow the second most fantasy points to receivers.

Jameis Winston, QB, Saints. Winston has been wildly inconsistent this year but had maybe his best game of the season his last time out. He threw four touchdown passes. The big takeaway in the game was his 30 pass attempts, which was a season high. This could be a trend going forward, having Winston air the ball out a little more. The offense has been stagnant at times, so maybe taking the reigns off Winston is the way to go for the Saints. And if they do that this week against the Seahawks, Winston is capable of another big performance. Seattle is 28th against the pass, allowing 292.3-passing yards per game.

Mike Davis, RB, Falcons. Cordarrelle Patterson has been the best Falcons fantasy back this year, but Davis has shown flashes. He still gets most of the carries and has a role in the passing game. Davis has double-digit fantasy points every game. And he had a season-high 14.1 fantasy points his last time out. Look for Davis to build on that this week against the Dolphins. Miami allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.

Justin Fields, QB, Bears. Fields is yet to do much for fantasy teams just yet. His season high in fantasy points is just 16, which he reached last week. We all know the potential is there, though, especially because Fields is capable of making big plays with his legs. If he can keep progressing, he is going to help fantasy teams. And that help might come this week against Tampa. The Bucs allow the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 27th overall against the pass.

Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs. The Chiefs brought in Josh Gordon to help at receiver, but Hardman remains a big part of the passing game. His playing time hasn’t been impacted much at all. His production has actually improved since Gordon has played. Hardman has 13 receptions for 138 yards on 17 targets his last two games. He has double-digit fantasy points four of six games. Hardman might have season best numbers this week against the Titans in what should be a shootout of a game. Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to receivers.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Washington/Packers, Chiefs/Titans, Bengals/Ravens, Lions/Rams, Texans/Cardinals.

Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Browns, Panthers/Giants, Colts/49ers.

Bye Weeks: Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 7

The Paur Report