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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Jeff's Mailbag: Week 10

Fri Nov 8 10:45am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

At running back, I have Carlos Hyde and Leonard Fournette on bye, which leads me with just these three: David Montgomery, LeSean McCoy or Kareem Hunt?

Neither McCoy or Hunt are even remotely good options and the waiver wire has next to nothing available.  Do I gamble big and roll the dice with Hunt or go with the (dare I say) safer choice with McCoy?  I feel like this is a "no brainer" to go with McCoy if we had a guarantee that he would get the touches.  The problem is that we don't for either player.

Wide receiver: Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Emmanuel Sanders, D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown or A.J. Green?

Beckham has a really tough assignment this week and hasn't been the player we're used to this year.  Metcalf is a beast, and I love him although San Francisco’s defense would be a true test.  And Brown has a tremendous matchup but he's "boom or bust.”

Adam

Adam: That is a tough call at running back between McCoy and Hunt. It is tough to recommend McCoy with him having fewer than 10 fantasy points four of five games. I might take a chance on Hunt for this week. I'm not sure his role but I would expect him to get near double-digit touches and some work in the passing game. I think he might be worth a shot with McCoy doing next to nothing lately.

If you start three, I like Jones, Sanders and Beckham in that order. I'm not huge on Metcalf this week despite his big showing last week. He has been a little touchdown dependent and I'm not sure he scores this week against the 49ers. And I love Brown's matchup this week but he hasn't topped 50-receiving yards since Week 2. 

I have Alvin Kamara and Chris Carson starting this week. Can you suggest a flex Devin Singletary, David Montgomery or Latavius Murray?

Michael 

Michael: I would go with Montgomery in a close call. He is finally getting more and more touches and become the clear lead back for the Bears. He has at least 17 touches two straight games. Montgomery gets the Lions this week, a team 27th against the run and allows 27 points per game. 

Who should I start: Josh Reynolds with Brandin Cooks out or Robby Anderson going against the defenseless Giants? Anderson has been so disappointing.  

Jim

Jim: I would go with Reynolds. The Jets are a mess right now and Anderson is doing next to nothing, having fewer than 45 yards five of six games. I just think he has limited upside in this offense. Reynolds is no sure thing but at least the Rams have success throwing the ball and Reynolds was targeted eight times his last game in an expanded role, which is encouraging.  

What is your take on Jay Ajayi? He keeps working out for teams and they keep NOT signing him. Even the Lions (!) for crying out loud. What am I missing?

Russ

Russ: That is a good question. I'm not sure what is going on with Ajayi. He is apparently healthy and ready to start playing again. I'm not at the workouts, though, so maybe he is lacking something right now, which is causing teams to pass on him. The Lions are a mess at running back and they didn't take a chance, so maybe something just isn't right with him. Who knows? 

Couple questions! T.J. Hockenson or Jason Witten for my tight end? Need two receivers from Tyler Boyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Josh Gordon, or Christian Kirk?

Greg

Greg: I would go with Witten. He isn't very exciting but has been very consistent. He is at least three receptions every game and had a season-high eight catches last week. Hockenson has been more bust than boom, so it is hard to recommend him over Witten right now. And I would go with Sanders and Boyd. Kirk has a dream matchup but his numbers just haven't been very consistent, so I give Boyd the slight edge over him. Boyd has been really consistent as the top target in this offense, having at least five receptions six of eight games. 

Regular points system. Start two: Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack or David Montgomery? 

My thoughts are Mack and Montgomery but Jones could have a good day. Plus, my league has extra points for running backs that receive touchdowns, so I’m conflicted not liking Chubb against Buffalo with Hunt coming back.

Wayne

Wayne: I like Chubb and Mack out of those options. I know Chubb's matchup is tough and Hunt is back this week, but he has been really solid much of the year while Montgomery is harder to trust. Montgomery has fewer than 70-rushing yards all but a game. I still think Chubb gets a good amount of work even with Hunt around and likely the goal-line work, so I would keep rolling with him.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
O.J. Howard Mar 29 10:23pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard's 'eyes should light up' at the opportunity to play with QB Tom Brady, according to head coach Bruce Arians. 'You have a quarterback who throws to the tight end, go earn it and get balls thrown to you,' Arians said.

Fantasy Spin: Despite playing four more games than he did in 2018, Howard finished with fewer yards and just one touchdown last year. The drop in production wasn't a surprise given the fact that Arians' system typically isn't kind to tight ends, but the arrival of Brady could change that in a big way. Howard is definitely worth grabbing as a TE1, and there is a chance he finishes as a top-five fantasy option at the position.

From TheHuddle

Ronald Jones II Mar 29 9:53pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones could face new competition for snaps on third down next season, according to head coach Bruce Arians. 'We'd love to have a pass-catching back,' Arians said.

Fantasy Spin: Jones rebounded in 2019 after a dreadful rookie campaign, tallying 1,031 yards from scrimmage and catching 31 passes. He should still handle most of the work on early downs, but if Jones isn't on the field in passing situations, it is going to limit his ceiling, especially with Tom Brady now under center. He's best viewed as a flex option for the time being.

From TheHuddle

Blake Bell Mar 29 9:23pm ET

Free-agent TE Blake Bell (Chiefs) agreed to terms with the Dallas Cowboys on a one-year deal worth $1.7 million with $450,000 guaranteed, according to a source.

From TheHuddle

Josh Allen Mar 29 7:13pm ET

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen had a league-high 7.2 percent of his pass attempts dropped last season.

From TheHuddle

Baker Mayfield Mar 29 7:03pm ET

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield had a league-high 20 passes batted down at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2019.

From TheHuddle

Kirk Cousins Mar 29 7:03pm ET

Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins enjoyed a league-high average of 2.7 seconds in the pocket in 2019.

From TheHuddle

Lamar Jackson Mar 29 6:33pm ET

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson executed a league-high 173 run-pass option (RPO) plays in 2019 - 65 more than second-place Kyler Murray (108). Jackson also ranked third in play-action pass attempts with 163.

From TheHuddle

Patrick Mahomes Mar 29 6:33pm ET

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was hurried 54 times in 2019 - a significant drop from a league-high 121 times in 2018.

From TheHuddle

Ryan Fitzpatrick Mar 29 6:33pm ET

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was hit while passing a league-high 66 times last season - tied with New York Giants QB Daniel Jones for the most in the NFL.

From TheHuddle

Dalvin Cook Mar 29 5:43pm ET

Atlanta Falcons RB Todd Gurley was charged with the dropped pass on a league-high 14.3 percent of his targets in 2019 as a member of the Los Angeles Rams. Denver Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay (12.5) and Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (11.1) were the only other qualified running backs with a drop rate of higher than nine percent.

From TheHuddle

Courtland Sutton Mar 29 5:43pm ET

Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton led all receivers with 12 broken tackles on receptions in 2019. Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson, former Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins and Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp tied for second among receivers with nine.

From TheHuddle

Julian Edelman Mar 29 5:23pm ET

New England Patriots WR Julian Edelman was charged with a league-high 13 drops in 2019 - five more than he had in 2018.

From TheHuddle

Le'Veon Bell Mar 29 5:23pm ET

New York Jets RB Le'Veon Bell (1.2) averaged 1.2 yards before contact per attempt in 2019 - tied with Benny Snell for the worst mark in the league among qualified rushers last season.

From TheHuddle

Leonard Fournette Mar 29 5:13pm ET

Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette finished fifth in the league among qualified rushers in fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.4) in 2019. Meanwhile, his three yards after contact per attempt was good for the third-best mark in the league.

From TheHuddle

Raheem Mostert Mar 29 4:53pm ET

San Francisco 49ers RBs Raheem Mostert (3.5) and Matt Breida (3.3) ranked first and second, respectively, in the league among running backs in average yards before contact per attempt last season.

From TheHuddle

Aaron Rodgers Mar 29 4:43pm ET

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was charged with a 'bad throw' on a league-high 21.2 percent of his passes in 2019.

From TheHuddle

Tom Brady Mar 29 4:33pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady was charged with 116 'bad throws' in 2019, six fewer than league leader Jameis Winston - his predecessor in Tampa Bay.

From TheHuddle

Jimmy Garoppolo Mar 29 4:33pm ET

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo was 'on target' - defined as a throw that would have hit the receiver - on 80.7 percent of his passes in 2019 - the fourth-highest mark in the league.

From TheHuddle

Dak Prescott Mar 29 4:23pm ET

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was on the wrong end of an NFL-high 36 drops last season.

From TheHuddle