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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Tyquan Thornton May 7 3:10pm ET
Tyquan Thornton

The Athletic's Chad Graff believes the New England Patriots will be content cutting both wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton this year after they added rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker with two of their first five draft picks this year. The team would have to eat more than $9 million in dead money if they decide to cut Smith-Schuster. Thornton is the only true speedster in the receiver room, but the former second-rounder in 2022 out of Baylor has been a disappointment in his first two NFL seasons. In 22 total games (12 starts), the 23-year-old has just 35 receptions on 68 targets for 338 yards and two touchdowns. Right now, Kendrick Bourne, Polk, Demario Douglas, Baker, K.J. Osborn and Jalen Reagor figure to be on the final roster at the position.

From RotoBaller

Spencer Rattler May 7 3:00pm ET
Spencer Rattler

The New Orleans Saints took former South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler in the fifth round, mainly because two teams that were very high on him -- the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos -- drafted QBs in the top 12 this year. Despite his drop in this year's NFL draft, Rattler is not perceived as 138 picks worse than Bo Nix, as some evaluators had Rattler awfully close to the same tier as Nix, who went 12th overall to Denver. One team source had zero issues with the perceived image concerns facing Rattler, who appearance in the documentary "QB1" during his high school career didn't portray his personality in the best light. Going into his first NFL season in New Orleans, Rattler is facing an uphill battle to win the No. 2 job from Jake Haener in training camp this summer.

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Xavier Legette May 7 2:30pm ET
Xavier Legette

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette, who was taken with the final pick in the first round of this year's NFL draft after the Panthers traded up, has drawn comparisons from scouts to Seattle Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf, mainly because of his 6-foot-3, 227-pound frame. "Not quite the athlete Metcalf is but he's got some game-breaking ability like that, and he can do a little more with versatility as a runner and pass-catcher," an NFL personnel evaluator said. Second-year quarterback Bryce Young could certainly use some more playmakers like that after a disastrous rookie season. The 23-year-old Legette is probably going to struggle to produce consistently for fantasy managers in single-year leagues in 2024, especially after Carolina also added wideout Diontae Johnson in free agency this offseason.

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Michael Penix Jr. May 7 2:20pm ET
Michael Penix Jr.

The Atlanta Falcons shocked the world in this year's NFL draft when they took quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at eighth overall despite just signing Kirk Cousins to a big deal in free agency in the offseason. Word spread a week before the draft that the Falcons loved Penix, to the extent that he ranked as high as No. 2 overall at the QB position. The team's brass flew to Seattle to watch Penix throw for a few hours in a private setting on April 5. According to sources, owner Arthur Blank fully endorsed long-term stability at the position. Cousins is 35 years old and coming off a torn Achilles last year, so Penix will give them that long-term stability at the position that Blank was seeking. Atlanta was criticized for the pick since they had plenty of other needs, but they could look smart years down the line when they transition Penix into the starting role.

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Christian Gonzalez May 7 2:10pm ET
Christian Gonzalez

New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) said that he's mostly recovered from the shoulder injury that he suffered in his rookie season in 2023. "That's in the past. I'm ready for right now," Gonzalez said. However, he's unsure what his participation will be like for organized team activities this offseason. The 21-year-old was the 17th overall pick in 2023 out of Oregon but only played in four games last year before his first year in the NFL was cut short due a torn labrum in his right shoulder that required surgery. He's likely to be limited in offseason workouts and possibly even for the start of training camp, but barring a setback, it sounds like he'll be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign. It's great news for New England's secondary.

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Jonathan Allen May 7 2:10pm ET
Jonathan Allen

The Washington Commanders took Illinois defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton on Day 2 of this year's NFL draft, giving the team three talented tackles in Newton and Pro Bowlers Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. A few league executives are now wondering if Washington will ever consider trade offers for Allen, who is due $15.4 million in 2024 and $16.5 million next year, both figures below market for high-end tackles. Sources believe the Commanders will either need to rework Allen's contract eventually or decide whether they will entertain trade offers, which they have so far rebuffed in the past. For now, head coach Dan Quinn can concoct a plan to get all three defensive tackles on the field. The 29-year-old Allen finished last year with 53 tackles (30 solo), 5.5 sacks and a pass defended in 16 games. Because of his struggles last year defending the run, perhaps he's moved outside more after the addition of Newton.

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Tyler Boyd May 7 1:10pm ET
Tyler Boyd

The Tennessee Titans are signing veteran free-agent wide receiver Tyler Boyd to a one-year deal worth up to $4.5 million, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. The former Cincinnati Bengal visited Tennessee last week and will now reunite with his former offensive coordinator and new Titans head coach Brian Callahan. While Boyd's fantasy value with Tennessee is likely capped by DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley, this is a promising addition for quarterback Will Levis. The Titans are signaling a shift toward a more pass-happy approach following the departure of Derrick Henry and the moves the franchise has made this offseason. 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks is now the odd man out, and there's a chance he could be traded after two disappointing seasons to begin his career. The 29-year-old Boyd has hauled in 437 passes for 5,172 yards and 28 receiving touchdowns over his last six seasons and is viewed as one of the better slot receivers in the NFL.

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Kendall Milton May 7 12:13pm ET
Kendall Milton

Dynasty | The Philadelphia Eagles signed UDFA running back Kendall Milton. Dynasty Analysis: Despite being productve at Georgia, Milton fell all the way out fo the draft, likely because of a perceived lack of versatility. He'll now look to make the Eagles roster as an UDFA. It's a decent landing spot for him as Philadelphia is historically one of the teams that likes to keep a large stable of runners. Still, Milton is a long shot for dynasty value moving forward and should simply be kept track of for now.

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Jake Haener May 7 12:20am ET
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New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler has an uphill climb to earn backup duties to veteran Derek Carr in his rookie season, which is why Jake Haener currently looks to be the favorite to be second on the QB depth chart out of training camp this summer. At the very least, though, Rattler is going to be in competition for the No. 2 spot with Haener. There are other veterans on the roster as well in Kellen Mond and Nathan Peterman, and Taysom Hill can't be ruled out for getting some work under center in camp, either. Rattler's growth could be tied to how quickly he can learn the offensive lingo and installs. Haener had a leg up last year since he ran a version of the Saints' offense at the Senior Bowl the previous season. Rattler might have to sit on the bench for a few years, so he's only worth drafting in dynasty/keeper leagues this fall.

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Raheem Blackshear May 6 10:13pm ET
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Dynasty | The Carolina Panthers are signing running back Rashaad Penny. Dynasty Analysis: Penny is going to compete with rookie Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders and Raheem Blackshear for a roster spot this Summer as nothing here should be looked at as guaranteed. Penny has had his moments in the league, including a stretch in Seattle where he was the best fantasy football player in the world for about a month. Unfortunately, injuries have always held him back and he wasn't really even able to sniff the field last year in Philadelphia. Penny's value has dropped all the way down to "watch list," but he'd certainly be roster worthy should he make the team this Fall.

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Davante Adams May 6 10:13pm ET
Davante Adams

Dynasty | The Las Vegas Raiders have signed veteran wide receiver Jalen Guyton. Dynasty Analysis: The long-time Charger has had his moments over his five-year career but never really put things together consistently in Los Angeles. He'll compete with the likes of Tre Tucker and DJ Turner for a roster spot but he looks buried behind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and the newly signed Michael Gallup. As the Stormtroopers would say, "Move along."

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Nathan Rourke May 6 9:20pm ET
Nathan Rourke

The New England Patriots informed quarterback Nathan Rourke that he is being waived on Monday, according to sources. The move thins the team's quarterback room to four -- veteran Jacoby Brissett, rookie third overall pick Drake Maye, Bailey Zappe and rookie Joe Milton III. The move shouldn't come as a surprise after the Patriots selected two quarterbacks in this year's NFL draft. The 25-year-old Rourke has never appeared in an NFL game, although he did make 11 starts in 2021 and 2022 with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League. Rourke will now look for another opportunity elsewhere as a depth option at the position with another NFL team.

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Joe Burrow May 6 9:10pm ET
Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) got glowing reviews while throwing at Monday's offseason workout. Burrow has been throwing during the offseason as he recovers from his injured right wrist, but Monday was the first day of Phase 2 of the team's offseason program. "He didn't miss a beat. Whatever he did in the offseason worked," receiver Kwamie Lassiter said. Burrow went through everything new QBs coach Brad Kragthorpe asked of him during the one-hour workout, which included footwork drills around obstacles. "I think he looked as quick and as athletic as I've seen him look," Kragthorpe said. "He looked like the Joe Burrow we're used to seeing. I didn't see any difference. I thought the ball came out of his hand well. Confidently. I'm happy where he's at."

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Tank Dell May 6 8:30pm ET
Tank Dell

Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (leg) continues to recover from a gunshot wound sustained nearly a week ago. The 24-year-old, who was an innocent bystander during the shooting, still has some hurdles to clear, especially after also sustaining a fractured Fibula at the end of last season. However, he's expected to be cleared before training camp, although his status for Week 1 remains uncertain. Yet, if things continue to move positively, there's a good chance he'll be out there when the Texans begin their season. Dell finished the 2023-24 campaign by amassing 709 yards and seven touchdowns off 47 receptions. While fantasy managers are concerned about the injury and the potential for a decrease in production after the team added Stefon Diggs, Dell could still find himself surpassing the 1,000-yard receiving mark in the Texans' high-powered offense.

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Deshaun Watson May 6 5:00pm ET
Deshaun Watson

Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) has had well-documented struggles since being traded from the Houston Texans ahead of the 2022 season. He's appeared in just 12 games over the last two years, completing just under 60% of his passes for 2,217 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Those stats are far from his days of MVP contention with Houston, but Browns general manager Andrew Berry remains confident. "Obviously, he's been rehabbing the shoulder injury, but he is well on his way there and in a really strong spot," Berry said. "We do expect to hit the ground running on that side of the ball, and I know he is very excited about returning to the playing field and getting over this injury. We have high expectations for him and the offense this season."Watson missed Week 4, 6, and 8 last season and played just a handful of snaps in Week 7 before returning in Week 9. He was then placed on season-ending Injured Reserve ahead of Week 11. A combination of poor play and injuries has put a bleak outlook on his career, and 2024 could be his last chance to prove he belongs as a starter in Cleveland. All that said, backup quarterback Jameis Winston is an intriguing stash option in Superflex and dynasty leagues.

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Rachaad White May 6 4:40pm ET
Rachaad White

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White saw 75.3% of the team's running back carries and targets in 2023, but running back coach Skip Peete said there will be more competition for touches this season. Tampa Bay selected Oregon running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, while Chase Edmonds and 2023 undrafted free agent Sean Tucker remain on the roster. Ultimately, none of the running backs behind White are expensive investments for the organization, and it's always tricky to know whether a coach is being transparent or just trying to motivate the players in his position room. White was the RB4 overall (PPR) last season behind 990 rushing yards, 549 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns. Although he could see his rushing volume take a hit, his receiving skill set that he's flashed since his collegiate career at Arizona State should keep him on the field for high-yield fantasy situations.

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Xavier Worthy May 6 4:40pm ET
Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy is coming along quickly at rookie minicamp, according to head coach Andy Reid. "I thought he did a nice job picking things up," Reid said "We asked him to do a whole lot of stuff there. He was put in mostly the primary spots, so it was good for him to get in there and move around a little bit." The speedster out of Texas recorded two touchdowns in 7-on-7 drills on Monday, according to ArrowHeadPride.com. This year's No. 28 overall pick will have sky-high expectations right away because of his situation with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his record-breaking 4.21 forty-yard dash at the NFL combine. However, Kansas City has a complex offense to learn, and the pass-catching trio of Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, and Rashee Rice presents stiff target competition for Worthy in Year 1.

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Marlon Davidson May 6 4:30pm ET
Marlon Davidson

Free-agent defensive lineman Marlon Davidson has agreed to terms to sign with the Tennessee Titans, according to ESPN's Turron Davenport. The former First-Team All-SEC performer at Auburn was selected with the No. 47 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons, but he played in just 19 games for the organization. After a brief stint with the San Francisco 49ers last offseason, he signed with the Titans as a member of the practice squad and ended up appearing in five games. Overall, the 25-year-old has accumulated 39 tackles, two sacks, one interception, two pass deflections, and three run stuffs through his first 24 NFL contests. He'll likely compete to be a rotational run-stopper after Tennessee selected Texas defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

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Chris Godwin May 6 4:20pm ET
Chris Godwin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin is moving back into the slot receiver role in 2024, according to his position coach, Bryan McClendon. Godwin, who has posted at least 1,000 receiving yards in four of his last five seasons, played just 32.1% of his snaps in the slot last year. In 2022, he lined up in the slot 57.6% of the time. The 28-year-old's 7.6 targets per game was his lowest clip since 2020, so perhaps a move back to his more natural position will see that figure come back toward the 9.0 per game range. Mike Evans remains in the X-role, while Trey Palmer and third-round rookie Jalen McMillan will compete to start in three-wide sets.

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Jeff Wilson May 6 2:50pm ET
Jeff Wilson

Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. won't be assured of a roster spot out of training camp this summer as part of a crowded backfield that includes Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane and rookie fourth-rounder Jaylen Wright. The Dolphins also have Salvon Ahmed and Chris Brooks in the RB room. Head coach Mike McDaniel has an affinity for Wilson dating back to their time together with the San Francisco 49ers, but the fact remains that Mostert, Achane and Wright will be locks for the roster. The former undrafted free agent out of North Texas failed to take advantage of Achane's injuries in 2023 and only played in 10 games (zero starts) himself, running for just 188 yards and no touchdowns on 41 carries while adding 14 receptions for 85 yards and no touchdowns.

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