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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Alex McGough May 10 12:20am ET
Alex McGough

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Alex McGough, a former USFL MVP who transitioned from quarterback this offseason, could use his pure athleticism to secure a roster spot prior to the 2024 campaign, head coach Matt LaFleur told the media. McGough spent all of 2023 operating as Green Bay's No. 3 quarterback. "He's a really athletic guy," LaFleur explained. "He spent a lot of time on the scout team running receiver routes, and he did such a great job. We feel like he's such a talented athlete, [so] why not give him a chance there? He's a smart guy, works his tail off. I think he can contribute [on special teams] as well. We felt like that might be his best chance here." These comments suggest that the Packers place great value on McGough's athleticism and don't want to risk losing someone like him, even if his impact is limited to special teams in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Stephon Gilmore May 10 12:10am ET
Stephon Gilmore

Free agent cornerback Stephon Gilmore still wants to play football but is waiting for the right opportunity, he told NFL insider Josina Anderson. "I know the value I still bring," Gilmore said. "If you watch the tape, I feel like I played well the last two years, and literally almost played every snap last year." Indeed, Gilmore was impactful in 2023. He started all 17 games for the Cowboys, registering two interceptions, 13 passes defended, 68 tackles, and one forced fumble. He's still a starting-caliber defender who could justify holding out for a specific opportunity, perhaps with a contender.

From RotoBaller

Evan Hull May 10 12:00am ET
Evan Hull

Indianapolis Colts running back Evan Hull could still earn the backup role despite some speculation suggesting the job belonged to Trey Sermon. According to James Boyd of The Athletic, "it remains unclear" who will operate as the No. 2 option behind Jonathan Taylor in 2024. He notes that while Sermon may be the early favorite, the former 49ers draft pick has just 78 carries for 346 yards and one touchdown in his career. Whoever takes over as Taylor's backup will be filling big shoes. Last season, that role belonged to Zack Moss, who finished the year with 986 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. Moss is now in Cincinnati, leaving a competition of sorts for Sermon and Hull. As a rookie last year, Hull mustered just one rushing yards and six receiving yards.

From RotoBaller

Jelani Woods May 9 11:50pm ET
Jelani Woods

The Athletic's James Boyd has Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods projected as the team's starting tight end in May because he remains bullish on his potential, despite the fact he was sidelined all of last year due to hamstring injuries. Woods should be healthy for organized team activities, and his next-level athleticism will mesh perfectly with head coach Shane Steichen's play-calling to create mismatches all over the field. He's also big enough to block when needed, and Kylen Granson can continue to use his speed and route-running to help move the chains. Mo Alie-Cox will remain in the mix as a seasoned veteran. While Woods should have a bigger pass-catching role if he can stay on the field, this could once again be a frustrating committee situation at TE for fantasy managers.

From RotoBaller

Ryan Flournoy May 9 11:40pm ET
Ryan Flournoy

The Dallas Cowboys signed rookie offensive tackle Tyler Guyton to his rookie deal on Thursday. In addition to Guyton, Dallas locked up rookies Cooper Beebe, Maris Liufau, Caelen Carson, Ryan Flournoy, Nathan Thomas and Justin Rogers. The only rookie that remains unsigned now is second-rounder Marshawn Kneeland. Guyton was selected 29th overall in the first round after Troy Fautanu and Amarius Mims came off the board earlier in the first round. The 6-foot-8, 322-pounder has excellent physical traits and the potential to play tackle at the next level, but it remains to be seen if he'll eventually develop as a starting-caliber left tackle. When the 22-year-old did enter the starting lineup at Oklahoma, he only played on the right side.

From RotoBaller

Brock Bowers May 9 11:30pm ET
Brock Bowers

The Las Vegas Raiders signed first-round rookie tight end Brock Bowers to a fully guaranteed four-year deal on Thursday that is worth $18.1 million. He'll receive $10 million via a signing bonus and the standard fifth-year team option as a first-round pick. The Raiders held off on reaching for a quarterback in the first round in last month's draft and instead took one of the best players in the entire draft in Bowers at 13th overall. The 21-year-old was the highest-selected tight end since Kyle Pitts in 2021 and is athletic enough as a tight end to play pretty much anywhere on the field. Bowers set a school record at Georgia with 26 touchdowns in his time there and is the complete package. Even with Michael Mayer in town, Bowers should take over as the team's top pass-catching TE in his rookie year.

From RotoBaller

Kyren Williams May 9 5:10pm ET
Kyren Williams

The Los Angeles Rams surprisingly selected Michigan running back Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft despite breakout star Kyren Williams racking up 1,350 total yards and 15 touchdowns in 2023. In a media availability, general manager Les Snead said that the decision to draft Corum was related to keeping Williams fresh. "It's a tough league. It's a 17-game season plus playoffs, so we always felt like we needed to have as many quality runners as possible... so we don't just totally run down Kyren," Snead said. "And we have one or two or even three guys that can contribute... keep everyone fresh." The organization implemented a workhorse backfield approach with 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley, and he ultimately had a short shelf life as a pro due to durability concerns. As most teams shift to a committee backfield, high-end fantasy running back producers are becoming more scarce. Williams missed five games last year on the Injured Reserve list, so the organization is being proactive and adding depth in the backfield. Williams remains an RB1 candidate, but his floor and ceiling take a hit with the addition of Corum.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff May 9 4:30pm ET
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has vastly exceeded expectations since being traded from the Los Angeles Rams to Detroit ahead of the 2021 season. The former No. 1 overall pick has thrown for 12,258 yards, 78 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions through his first 48 games with the organization. More importantly, he led the team to Detroit's first playoff win since 1991 last year, and he had the San Francisco 49ers on the ropes in the NFC Championship game. He did not sign a contract extension along with right tackle Penei Sewell and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown two weeks ago, but general manager Brad Holmes said the two sides are working on a deal. "He's earned an extension. It's important, it's a high priority for us. Both sides are working really, really hard. These things just take time," Holmes said. "In a perfect world, we would've had all three of them done. Bang, bang, bang. But these things just kind of take a while, especially with the quarterback market, but I do have faith that it's gonna get done." Assuming Goff receives a high-dollar multi-year deal, his dynasty value with be secure over the next three or four years. While his ceiling is capped by a lack of rushing upside, he should remain a fringe QB1 as long as the Lions retain key offensive linemen and pass-catching weapons.

From RotoBaller

Treylon Burks May 9 4:20pm ET
Treylon Burks

Despite the Tennessee Titans signing veteran wide receiver Tyler Boyd this week, head coach Brian Callahan and the organization still have hope for third-year wideout Treylon Burks. "We've made very clear to Treylon that the signing of Tyler is not about him. It's about helping our team get better, adding better players to our team, making us a competitive football team," Callahan said. "What he's done and how he's worked has been great, and I'm anticipating him still being able to play a good role for us." While the Boyd signing almost surely pushes Burks to the WR4 role and destroys any 2024 fantasy football value he had, it sounds like the team is not going to trade him this offseason as many have speculated. Burks was a promising prospect coming out of Arkansas, but he's totaled just 665 receiving yards and one touchdown through his first two NFL seasons. He might be worth holding in deep dynasty leagues, but it'd be surprising if he's on the fantasy radar in redraft formats.

From RotoBaller

Ben Skowronek May 9 3:00pm ET
Ben Skowronek

The Houston Texans acquired wide receiver Ben Skowronek from the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday, according to sources. The Rams were set to waiver Skowronek, but the Texans swooped in before he hit waivers to get something done to add receiving depth behind Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, Noah Brown, John Metchie III and others. The 26-year-old Skowronek was the Rams' seventh-round pick in 2021 and has mostly been limited to a role on special teams in his three years in the NFL. That will likely continue to be the case with his move to Houston, and he won't be on the fantasy radar at all. In his three years in the NFL in LA, Skowronek only had 58 receptions for 575 yards and one touchdown on 93 targets in 45 games (12 starts).

From RotoBaller

Keon Coleman May 9 2:40pm ET
Keon Coleman

In what is the weakest wide receiving corps the Buffalo Bills have had in several seasons, rookie second-round wideout Keon Coleman should start right away in his first NFL season alongside veteran Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Coleman has a lot of potential, but asking a 21-year-old to produce in a way he never has at a higher level of football seems like asking for too much, too soon, according to The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia. Depth is also an issue for this unit, with journeyman veteran Mack Hollins as their top reserve. Coleman has good size at 6-foot-3, 213 pounds, but his lack of production at Florida State made him a polarizing draft prospect. The good news is that he's going to have his opportunities right away, although that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be a starting fantasy option on a weekly basis right away.

From RotoBaller

Dawson Knox May 9 2:40pm ET
Dawson Knox

Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox likely knows a reduced role is on the way again for him in 2024, although he is a favorite of quarterback Josh Allen's in the locker room, so it remains to be seen how much he'll be on the sidelines in favor of second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen may need to rely on Kincaid more to pick up a big amount of slack to keep the offense moving with an unproven receiver unit this year. Buffalo moved away from heavy usage of 12 personnel early in 2023 and mostly settled into 11 personnel. If that's the plan again in 2024, it will be interesting to see how they divvy up the snaps between Kincaid and Knox. Either way, unless Kincaid misses time with an injury, it's going to be hard to justify starting Knox outside of two-TE leagues.

From RotoBaller

James Cook May 9 2:30pm ET
James Cook

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook bounced back from being benched last year and enters his third season in the NFL in 2024 as the unquestioned lead back with a giant gap between him and either Ty Johnson or rookie Ray Davis. Cook should continue to push toward some of the heaviest involvement the Bills have seen in recent years out of their top back. Johnson's game is similar to Cook's, so he'll likely have a game-day role when Cook needs a breather. The Bills are hoping Davis can add power and short-yardage ability, something the team has been wanting to add for years to the backfield. The 24-year-old Cook had a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023 but added just two rushing TDs. What Cook lacks in scoring opportunities, he could make up for with his pass-catching abilities and sheer volume in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Cedric Tillman May 9 2:20pm ET
Cedric Tillman

The Athletic's Zac Jackson writes that the Cleveland Browns believe wide receiver Cedric Tillman can make a second-year leap in 2024. Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore figure to start in most three-receiver sets this year, but Tillman should have an opportunity for a bigger role as the No. 4 as the season progresses. The 24-year-old third-round pick last year out of Tennessee caught 21 of his 44 targets for 224 yards and no touchdowns in 14 games (three starts) in 2023 in his rookie season. Behind Tillman, David Bell, rookie Jamari Thrash, James Proche II, Jaelon Darden and Michael Woods II will have to battle for playing time in training camp this summer. Tillman won't be worth drafting in standard-sized leagues this fall, but he could become intriguing as a waiver-wire pickup if one of the three starters goes down with injury at any point.

From RotoBaller

Ben Skowronek May 9 2:10pm ET
Ben Skowronek

The Los Angeles Rams released wide receiver Ben Skowronek on Thursday, according to a source. The former seventh-round pick in 2021 out of Notre Dame had emerged into a team captain last year but also had a career-low eight receptions on 12 targets for 66 yards and his first career touchdown in 17 regular-season games (zero starts). The 26-year-old has mostly contributed on special teams in his three-year NFL career and will likely continue to do so wherever he winds up next. In his three years in LA, Skowronek caught 58 of his 93 targets for 575 receiving yards and just one touchdown in 45 games played (12 starts). He'll be off the fantasy radar wherever he lands next.

From RotoBaller

D'Onta Foreman May 9 2:10pm ET
D'Onta Foreman

There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Cleveland Browns' backfield heading into this summer with running back Nick Chubb (knee) months away from having a timetable to return. Nyheim Hines (knee) is also recovering from a torn ACL as well. D'Onta Foreman figures to operate as the team's short-yardage back, while Jerome Ford could go anywhere from first in line to a specialized role while mostly helping in the passing game. Pierre Strong Jr. and John Kelly Jr. round out the RB room. The Browns have nice depth at the position, but the pecking order and specific roles are to be determined based on Chubb's availability and effectiveness. Foreman's fantasy value will hinge on Chubb as well, but in a best-case scenario if Chubb isn't ready for the start of the season, he'll be a touchdown-dependent RB3/flex.

From RotoBaller

Allen Robinson May 9 10:40am ET
Allen Robinson

The New York Giants signed free-agent wide receiver Allen Robinson on Thursday, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The move to acquire a cheap veteran makes sense considering the weak group of pass-catchers on New York's roster, but Robinson has looked like a shell of his former self over the last three seasons. After two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020, Robinson has totaled just 1,029 yards and four touchdowns over the last three campaigns. He tallied 280 yards and no touchdowns with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023. Although he could provide value as an experienced leader in the locker room, it'd be surprising if he made an impact in fantasy football. Rookie first-round pick Malik Nabers is expected to be the No. 1 wide receiver for Daniel Jones right away, while Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayon with compete for looks behind him.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Boyd May 9 10:35am ET
Tyler Boyd

Dynasty | The Titans have signed wide receiver Tyler Boyd. Dynasty Analysis: Amazingly, Boyd has already spend eight years in the league (all with the Bengals). Over the span of his career, he's posted 513 catches for exactly 6,000 yards with 31 touchdowns. The Titans were steadfast in their approach to improve their offense and have now added Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley and Boyd to a new-look team. The move will certainly have fantasy implications, most notably pushing Treylon Burks down one more spot in the pecking order. Boyd remains a low-ceiling player to have on a dynasty roster but he could have real short-term value should an injury (or a suspension) occur with Hopkins or Ridley.

Rashaad Penny May 9 10:35am ET
Rashaad Penny

Dynasty | The Carolina Panthers are signing running back Rashaad Penny. Dynasty Analysis: Penny is going to compete with rookie Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders and Raheem Blackshear for a roster spot this Summer as nothing here should be looked at as guaranteed. Penny has had his moments in the league, including a stretch in Seattle where he was the best fantasy football player in the world for about a month. Unfortunately, injuries have always held him back and he wasn't really even able to sniff the field last year in Philadelphia. Penny's value has dropped all the way down to "watch list," but he'd certainly be roster worthy should he make the team this Fall.

Allen Robinson May 9 9:33am ET
Allen Robinson

Free-agent WR Allen Robinson (Steelers) agreed to an undisclosed deal with the New York Giants Thursday, May 9.

From TheHuddle