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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Divisional Round

Wed Jan 17 9:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

LaPorta is getting healthier


Here is to hoping that the playoff games are better this weekend. For the most part, the games last week just weren’t very good unless you were a fans of those teams. I’m hoping for some barn burners this week, going down to the last drive. It will make for a lot better viewing.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I like a snow/cold game as much as anyone, but it does kind of stink for the teams involved when playing in the playoffs. You play all season in pretty normal conditions, but have to deal with brutal conditions when the playoffs hit. Again, I love to watch a snow game, but it probably would be better for the playoffs if teams didn’t have to deal with the awful winter weather. Oh well.

The Josh Allen experience is truly wild. He can drive you crazy with the turnovers and mistakes, but when he is playing well, Allen is really the best in the game. He showed that last week. Allen is just so tough defend, especially when he is running the ball more. The Bills kind of took that out of the game plan early in the season, but brought it back more after changing offensive coordinators. The change in philosophy has been a huge spark to the Bills offense.

I’m really excited about Jameson Williams next season. The Lions are starting to use him a lot more in normal routes than just as a deep threat. He is showing his ability as a route runner lately. Williams has a chance for a breakout season as long as he is healthy and playing. The big issue for Williams to start his career is just staying on the field. The ability is there for huge things. I’m ready to see what he can do next year.

It will be interesting to see what the Vikings do with their quarterback position this offseason. I almost think Kirk Cousins will be back and the team will draft a quarterback to learn from him. That might make the most sense and keep star receiver Justin Jefferson happy. This is one situation I’m going to keep a really close eye on this offseason because it has a lot of fantasy implications.

If I’m the Bears, I’m trading that No. 1 overall pick and loading up on more draft picks to surround Justin Fields with better talent. I know Caleb Williams is a stud and could be a fantastic pro, but Fields is no slouch. He made strides this year, especially late in the season. I think the franchise would do better to take advantage of the hype surround Williams and get a huge haul in a trade.

I don’t see Bill Belichick going to a team that doesn’t already have a franchise quarterback. You hear him interviewing with Atlanta, but that situation just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. I think he is going to go to a team that already has a top quarterback, so he doesn’t have to deal with the issues he had with the Patriots after losing Tom Brady.

And speaking of coaches, you have to wonder what is going to happen in Dallas after their stunning early-round exit in the playoffs. Mike McCarthy has been great during the regular season, but owner Jerry Jones doesn’t care about regular season wins. Jones wants Super Bowl titles. I would not be surprised if McCarthy is relieved of his job in the coming days.

I really thought the Browns operated better with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback this season than Deshaun Watson. Flacco gave that passing game a spark and it produced huge numbers on a weekly basis. You have to think the Browns are really regretting going all in on Watson as their franchise quarterback. He certainly has not played near his past levels. The Browns really overpaid for Watson and could be feeling it for years to come.

News and Notes: The Bills released running back Leonard Fournette from the practice squad on Tuesday.

HOT PLAYS

Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions. LaPorta was able to play last week and didn’t look quite 100 percent, but still found the end zone. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games and scores two straight. He should be even healthier this week, meaning his production could be even better. Plus, he has a great matchup against a bad Bucs pass defense. The Bucs allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers. McCaffrey is always a must start and hot play, but especially this week. He gets a Packers defense that is the worst out of all the remaining playoff teams against the run. Green Bay was 28th against the run in the regular season and allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. Green Bay allowed 200-plus rushing yards four times this season. We think McCaffrey is going to have a monster showing in this one, possibly pushing 200-plus total yards and 30 fantasy points.

Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers had a breakout season as the top target at receiver the Ravens. He played really well late in the season, having 20-plus fantasy points three of five games. He has scores four of five games. Flowers keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. Look for more success this week against the Texans in what should be a high-scoring game. The Texans have allowed 265-plus passing yards three of six games.

COLD PLAYS 

Devin Singletary, RB, Texans. Singletary had a solid season, emerging as the starter for the Texans. He has scores two straight games and has been consistent for the Texans, especially the second half of the season. Singletary has a really tough matchup to keep up his solid play this week, though, playing the Ravens. Baltimore was 14th against the run during the regular season, allowing 109.4-rushing yards per game. Houston might need to rely on C.J. Stroud and the passing game moire than Singletary if they hope to have much offensive success.

David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery found the end zone again last week, giving him four straight games with a touchdown. He still hasn’t topped 65-rushing yards in any of those games and has just three catches during that stretch. He might be a scary play this week against a Bucs defense that allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season. The Bucs allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and were fifth overall against the run.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It is so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but his numbers down the stretch haven’t been great for fantasy owners. He has just one touchdown each of his last three games. He has been pretty mediocre for fantasy teams. It might be more of the same this week against the Bills on the road. Buffalo has really played better defense down the stretch and allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season.

SLEEPERS

Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield had a great opener in the playoffs, hitting the 300-yard mark while scoring three touchdowns. Mayfield has multiple touchdowns five of six games. He has three three-touchdown games during that stretch. He has a great matchup against the Lions, a team that allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season. Look for Mayfield to keep it going this week.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Packers. Wicks scored another touchdown last week, giving him scores three straight games. He keeps finding the end zone, making him a top red-zone target for the Packers. He could score again this week in a game the Packers are likely throwing often and playing from behind. This could lead to even more targets for Wicks. He could be a sneaky play for fantasy owners.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir scored his third touchdown of the season last week. He has 12-plus fantasy points two straight games. He has at least three catches four consecutive games. Shakir is getting more work with Gabe Davis out and playing well in an expanded role. Shakir has a chance for another solid game this week in what should be a high-scoring game with the Chiefs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Packers/49ers, Bucs/Lions.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Kyle Pitts May 18 1:30pm ET
Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts called himself a "super rookie" as he enters the fourth year of his NFL career in 2024. "I'm not a rookie rookie. But we're all in this new offense, new regime, new schedule. We're all in this fresh," Pitts said. The former first-round pick has a new head coach in Raheem Morris, a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson and a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins this year. Pitts had 1,027 receiving yards in his rookie year in 2021 but suffered a season-ending knee injury in Year 2, and he wasn't 100% in 2023 despite playing in all 17 games. The 23-year-old is fully healthy now and taking part in OTAs this offense as he works to learn the new offense and gain chemistry with Cousins. Pitts could easily have his best season to date in 2024 if both he and Cousins (coming off a torn Achilles) can stay healthy.

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Xavier Worthy May 18 1:20pm ET
Xavier Worthy

The car of Kansas City Chiefs rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy was stolen this week, according to a spokesperson for the Kansas City Police Department. The car was reported stolen around noon on Monday, according to Sgt. Phil DiMartino. Worthy was not with the vehicle when it was taken and he is unharmed. The Chiefs took Worthy in the first round (28th overall) of last month's NFL draft after trading up with the Buffalo Bills. The speedy pass-catcher set a record at this year's NFL scouting combine with a time of 4.21 seconds in the 40-yard dash. The 21-year-old could have a key role in KC's offense in his rookie year, especially if Rashee Rice is handed down a suspension for his off-the-field situation this offseason. At just 5-foot-11, 165 pounds, there are questions about Worthy's durability, and he's also had issues with dropped passes, but his speed element alone in the Chiefs offense could make him worth a late-round flier in fantasy drafts this fall.

From RotoBaller

Jake Ferguson May 18 1:20pm ET
Jake Ferguson

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson caught 19 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie in 2022, but he enters the 2024 season as the team's top tight end after catching 71 passes for 761 yards and five touchdowns in 2023. "To me, I think I'm not even scratching my surface," Ferguson said. He has taken part in the Tight End University program led by Greg Olsen, George Kittle and Travis Kelce, and TEs coach Lunda Wells thinks Ferguson can go for 1,000 yards receiving. Ferguson is trying to add a little more bulk to his 252-pound frame this offseason to help him as a blocker. Not only does Ferguson have the skills to continue ascending, but he has great chemistry with quarterback Dak Prescott. There's uncertainty at the No. 3 receiver position behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks in Dallas, too, so Ferguson could take another step forward as a TE1 in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Kirk Cousins May 18 1:10pm ET
Kirk Cousins

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins was recently asked about the status of the NFL's investigation into tampering allegations by the Falcons. "The league's still kind of going through that," Cousins said. "So, I'll let them do it. But there's not a whole lot there." However, Cousins admitted that he spoke to the team's head athletic trainer during the 52-hour negotiating window where direct communication between the team and impending free agent are strictly forbidden. The QB also said he spoke to director of player personnel Ryan Pace. Cousins said tight end Kyle Pitts actively recruited Cousins for multiple weeks. Cousins also admitted that he personally called former Bears receiver Darnell Mooney to close the deal that brought him to Atlanta during the 52-hour window. It's unclear how deep the league's investigation will be into this matter and whether the Falcons will actually get punished.

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La'Mical Perine May 17 9:50pm ET
La'Mical Perine

The Kansas City Chiefs released running back La'Mical Perine on Friday. Perine was taken by the New York Jets in the fourth round (120th overall) in 2020 out of Florida. He spent his first three years with the Jets and only played in 14 games (zero starts) over two years, racking up 263 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 72 rushing attempts, adding 11 receptions for 63 yards. The 26-year-old joined the Chiefs for the 2023 campaign and had 22 carries for 77 yards and added three catches for 33 yards in just three regular-season games (one start). He's now on the open market and will be looking to join another squad for training camp this summer. No matter where Perine latches on, he'll be well off the fantasy radar and will just be trying to make the team out of training camp and the preseason.

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Terrace Marshall Jr. May 17 9:40pm ET
Terrace Marshall Jr.

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. was already on shaky ground heading into the offseason before the team selected receiver Xavier Legette with the final pick in the first round of this year's NFL draft while also adding Diontae Johnson via a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers. There's a reason the former second-round pick requested to be moved before last year's trade deadline. With the offseason additions, Marshall will likely be fighting to hang onto one of the final roster spots at the position in training camp this summer, especially if an undrafted free agent like Jalen Coker or Sam Pinckney sticks. Marshall, 23, had just 19 receptions for 139 yards and no touchdowns in Carolina's brutal offense a year ago and has just 64 catches for 767 yards and one touchdown in his three years in the NFL. He shouldn't be drafted in fantasy leagues this fall.

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T.J. Hockenson May 17 9:20pm ET
T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee), who tore his ACL and MCL in Week 16 against the Detroit Lions last year, isn't putting a timeline on his return in 2024. "They haven't really put a timeline on it," Hockenson said. "We're just kinda taking it day by day, week by week, there's just so many variables that you can go through in this process. I'm doing really good right now. We're attacking each process. I'm attacking each one and it's been awesome, the progression has been incredible." Even if Hockenson isn't available for the Week 1 season opener this fall, he should be drafted in all fantasy leagues as a surefire, high-end TE1 when healthy, although he will be taking passes from either quarterback Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy in 2024. In 15 games last year, Hockenson had 95 catches for 960 yards and five touchdowns.

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Kyle Pitts May 17 4:20pm ET
Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts shined as a rookie in 2021, catching 68 passes for 1,026 yards and one touchdown after being selected No. 4 overall. His last two campaigns have left a lot to be desired, as he failed to surpass 700 yards or become a major factor in the end zone in 2022 or 2023. However, he is still just 23 years old and is embracing a fresh start with a new quarterback and coaching staff in 2024. "I would say I'm a super rookie," Pitts said Tuesday, via the team's official site. "I'm not a rookie. But we're all in this new offense, new regime, new schedule. We're all in this fresh." Pitts' 2021 success came with Matt Ryan under center, and poor quarterback play from Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke can help explain his lack of production. The Falcons signed former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal and drafted Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick this offseason. Despite his lackluster showings of late, he is being selected as the TE7 off the board in early FFPC fantasy drafts. He remains a clear TE1 candidate and has top-five overall upside in his new offense.

From RotoBaller

Miles Sanders May 17 2:00pm ET
Miles Sanders

The Carolina Panthers were saying there was still room for running back Miles Sanders in the RB room after trading up in the second round of last month's NFL draft to take Jonathon Brooks as the first RB off the board. But that was before the team signed former Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny, who was with Panthers head coach Dave Canales in Seattle. Sanders lost the starting job to Chuba Hubbard last year amid the worst season of his career. It's hard to envision another team wanting to trade for Sanders and his contract, although the Panthers showed this offseason that they're willing to eat money to move on from underperforming players. The 27-year-old Sanders is now listed as third on the team's RB depth chart behind Hubbard and Brooks, making him undraftable in standard 12-team leagues this fall.

From RotoBaller

Ty Summers May 17 1:40pm ET
Ty Summers

The Jacksonville Jaguars signed free-agent defensive back Tre Flowers and linebacker Ty Summers to undisclosed deals on Thursday. In corresponding moves, the team waived linebacker Dequan Jackson after waiving undrafted free-agent receiver Wayne Ruby on Wednesday. Flowers, who was a former fifth-round pick by the Seattle Seahawks in 2018, lasted played for Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen in Atlanta in 2023. In 90 career games (44 starts), he's had 283 tackles, 22 pass breakups, five forced fumbles and four interceptions. Flowers will give Jacksonville more depth in their secondary in 2024. Summers, 28, was taken in the seventh round in 2019 by the Packers. He was with Green Bay for three seasons before being waived. Summers has started only one game in his career.

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Dane Jackson May 17 1:40pm ET
Dane Jackson

Carolina Panthers cornerback Dane Jackson will get a chance to compete for a starting spot with his new team after mostly playing as a backup and special teams ace with the Buffalo Bills. The 27-year-old will reunite with general manager Dan Morgan after Morgan famously pounded the table for the Bills to draft Jackson in the seventh round in 2020. Jackson's size (5-foot-11, 180 pounds) makes him susceptible to over-the-top throws, but he has a competitive spirit and is a good tackler. The Panthers could add another cornerback on the open market, but Jackson is going to have a much bigger role in his first year in Carolina in 2024. He has 152 combined tackles (129 solo), three interceptions, 28 passes defended, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in his four years in the NFL.

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Dre Greenlaw May 17 1:30pm ET
Dre Greenlaw

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) said he recently ditched the walking boot he'd been wearing since suffering a torn Achilles in the Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in early February. It's a big step for Greenlaw, but he still has a lot of boxes to check off if he wants to be ready for the Week 1 regular season opener this fall. The 26-year-old is a remarkable athlete, but expecting him to be full-go for the start of the 2024 season seems like a long shot given the severity of his injury. When healthy, the former fifth-round pick in 2019 out of Arkansas is a staple in IDP fantasy formats at the linebacker position. Greenlaw has had 100-plus combined tackles in each of the last two seasons. In 15 regular-season games for the Niners last year, he totaled 120 tackles (75 solo), a career-high 1.5 sacks, five tackles for loss and four passes defended.

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Najee Harris May 17 1:20pm ET
Najee Harris

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris changed his diet this offseason in an effort to slim down. "He's motivated, to say the least," his offseason trainer Josh Scott said. It makes sense for Harris, who had his fifth-year option declined by the Steelers recently. "It's all fueling his fire to have an even better season than last year and prove a lot of people wrong," Scott said. The former first-rounder in 2021, who is listed at 242 pounds on the team's roster, looks closer to his listed college weight of 230. Harris has been eating a lot of fish and vegetables and has avoided processed foods. "He's looking really, really springy; really, really light off the ground; and more agile," Scott said. Harris averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons but has gone over 1,000 yards rushing in all three of his campaigns. He had a career-high eight rushing TDs in 2023, but his fantasy ceiling could be capped as an RB2 with Jaylen Warren commanding his share of backfield touches.

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Tua Tagovailoa May 17 1:10pm ET
Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has skipped most of the team's voluntary organized team activities in the past month as the team prepares for him to play on his fifth-year option in 2024, according to sources close to the situation. In his first four years in the league, Tagovailoa was present for most of the voluntary work. Sources think his absence is related to his contract status. The fifth overall pick in 2020 is currently set to make $23.171 million on his fifth-year option, but he's hoped for a long-term contract extension, especially after playing all 17 regular-season games in 2023 while throwing for a career-high 4,624 yards. He made the Pro Bowl for the first time and started in his first playoff game, although his 14 interceptions were tied for fourth-most in the NFL. It's unlikely that Tagovailoa will conduct a full-fledged holdout this summer. Contract issues aside, Tagovailoa is in the QB1 ranks in fantasy, but his ceiling isn't as high as the elite names because of his lack of rushing.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff May 17 12:33am ET
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff officially signed his four-year extension on Thursday, May 16, which included an NFL record $73 million signing bonus, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

From TheHuddle

Cameron Heyward May 16 6:03pm ET
Cameron Heyward

Pittsburgh Steelers DE Cameron Heyward plans to play several more seasons and has recovered from his core muscle injury, a source told ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler.

From TheHuddle

Sean McKeon May 16 4:50pm ET
Sean McKeon

The Detroit Lions signed veteran free-agent tight end Sean McKeon on Thursday, according to NFL.com. McKeon spent the last four years with the Dallas Cowboys after being undrafted out of Michigan. He appeared in 45 games over the last three seasons, collecting six receptions for 38 yards and one touchdown. Needless to say, the 26-year-old doesn't figure to be a factor in fantasy football, but he could compete for a roster spot with James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra behind Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright.

From RotoBaller

Tyquan Thornton May 16 4:40pm ET
Tyquan Thornton

New England Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has not gotten out to a great start since being selected in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Through his first 22 regular season games, he's racked up just 35 receptions for 338 yards and two touchdowns and rushed six times for 67 yards and a score. This offseason, the Baylor product is focused on adding muscle in hopes of turning his career around and staying healthy. "I'm putting in work. I feel like I've put on a lot of muscle in a lot of areas that need it. I'm just continuing to get bigger," Thornton said. "It's just so I can take more impacts. I feel like all my injuries came from the ground -; me hitting the ground. So, it's so I can be able to bounce back up when I do hit the ground." The 23-year-old weighed in at just 181 pounds at the 2022 NFL Combine and has missed 12 games in just two seasons due to injury. Although this could be promising for his future outlook, he could be a cut or trade candidate this offseason after New England re-signed Kendrick Bourne, signed K.J. Osborn, and selected Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the 2024 NFL Draft.

From RotoBaller

Kevin Byard May 16 4:20pm ET
Kevin Byard

The Jacksonville Jaguars signed veteran safety Terrell Edmunds on Thursday, according to NFL.com. The 2018 first-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers spent last season with the Philadelphia Eagles before being traded to the Tennessee Titans in a package for All-Pro safety Kevin Byard. Through six NFL seasons with three teams, he has accumulated 458 tackles (310 solo), 7.5 sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, six interceptions, and 28 passes defended in 95 games. Edmunds has not lived up to his hype as a prospect coming out of Virginia Tech, but he's a solid depth piece in the secondary and will likely play meaningful snaps as a reserve safety in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Quintez Cephus May 16 3:00pm ET
Quintez Cephus

To make room on the roster for the signing of safety Dee Delaney on an undisclosed one-year contract, the Buffalo Bills released wide receiver Quintez Cephus on Thursday. The Bills added Cephus in free agency in April, but he's now back on the open market after missing all of last year due to a suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. The 26-year-old was originally a fifth-round selection by the Detroit Lions in the 2020 NFL draft out of Wisconsin. All three of his NFL seasons have come with the Lions, and Cephus has recorded just 37 catches on 60 targets for 568 receiving yards and four touchdowns in 22 total games (six starts). If Cephus ends up being picked up by another team, he'll merely be attempting to make the active roster out of training camp this summer.

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