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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Matthew Stafford Aug 12 12:30am ET

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been cleared to play football after a COVID-19 test resulted in a false positive. Stafford commented, "I want to play football. I want to be out there", in addressing a situation he referred to as "scary". The veteran quarterback was on his way to one of the best seasons of his professional career last year, passing for 2,499 yards and 19 touchdowns in only eight games. But a fractured back ended his season Stafford and his fantasy value will be weighed down by the specter of that injury heading into fantasy drafts.

From RotoBaller

Malik Turner Aug 11 11:00pm ET

For the second day in a row, the Green Bay Packers have added a wide receiver. This time, it's former Seahawks wideout Malik Turner, who had 15 catches for 245 yards last season. Turner's much more likely to play a role on this team than the other addition, Travis Fulgham, but he still faces an uphill battle to be a fantasy-relevant part of this roster in 2020. Still, Green Bay is fairly shallow at receiver, so Turner could end up as the team's No. 3 wide receiver by the time the regular season rolls around.

From RotoBaller

Vic Beasley Aug 11 4:13pm ET

Tennessee Titans LB Vic Beasley (undisclosed) was placed on the Non-Football Injury list Tuesday, Aug. 11. LB Reggie Gilbert was waived.

From TheHuddle

Marqui Christian Aug 11 3:53pm ET

Free-agent DB Marqui Christian (Rams) reportedly signed an undisclosed contract with the Chicago Bears on Tuesday, Aug. 11.

From TheHuddle

Matt Breida Aug 11 12:13pm ET

Miami Dolphins RB Matt Breida is expected to receive 35 percent of the touches in the backfield, according to beat writer Cameron Wolfe.

Fantasy Spin: That seems a bit low. Wolfe expects Howard to receive 50 percent, Breida 35 percent and the remaining 15 percent goes to the field. That may be true for rushes, but Howard doesn't catch the ball often, and Breida specializes there. Breida is still a low-end RB3 in PPR.

From TheHuddle

Jordan Howard Aug 11 12:03pm ET

Miami Dolphins RB Jordan Howard is expected to carry the rushing load in 2020, in the opinion of beat writer Cameron Wolfe. Wolfe expects Howard to receive 50 percent of the backfield touches.

Fantasy Spin: That would make Howard a low-end RB2 option, but he has very minimal PPR luster. Due to this, that projection seems high. He'll slip to an RB3 in PPR.

From TheHuddle

Tavon Wilson Aug 11 11:33am ET

Free-agent S Tavon Wilson (Lions) signed an undisclosed deal with the Indianapolis Colts Tuesday, Aug. 11.

From TheHuddle

Yannick Ngakoue Aug 11 10:33am ET

Jacksonville Jaguars DE Yannick Ngakoue has been in contact with general manager David Caldwell, but it's unknown whether he'll report to camp.

From TheHuddle

Trae Waynes Aug 11 9:33am ET

Cincinnati Bengals CB Trae Waynes (pectoral) is seeking a second opinion on a pectoral injury that has the initial fear of a two-month absence.

From TheHuddle

Travis Fulgham Aug 11 3:20am ET

The Green Bay Packers have claimed wide receiver Travis Fulgham off waivers from the Detroit Lions. A sixth-round pick out of Old Dominion last season, Fulgham appeared in three games for Detroit, playing 42 offensive snaps against Green Bay in December but not recording a target. With Devin Funchess opting out and a top-heavy receiving corps, it makes sense for Green Bay to add someone at the position, but Fulgham's a longshot to make any kind of impact on this team in 2020.

From RotoBaller

T Y Hilton Aug 10 11:13pm ET

Indianapolis Colts WR T.Y. Hilton is entering the final season of a five-year, $65 million contract. 'If this is my last year (in Indianapolis), I will give it all I've got,' Hilton said recently in an interview with an Indianapolis TV station.

Fantasy Spin: Hilton will turn 31 in November, has missed a total of eight games over the last two seasons due to injuries and is no longer a sure-fire WR/WR2 consideration. Value him as a low-end WR2 with new QB Philip Rivers at the helm.

From TheHuddle

A.J. Green Aug 10 10:53pm ET

Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green has dedicated much of his offseason training to injury avoidance, including working with a former acquaintance, Reza Hesam, who co-founded Adapt Physical Therapy, which focuses on injury prevention in addition to working on performance.

Fantasy Spin: Green just turned 32 and if he's able to finish the Bengals' Week 1 game, it'll be his first full contest in nearly two calendar years (October of 2018). With all of the current concerns, Green enters 2020 as a high-end WR3 with upside.

From TheHuddle

Derek Carr Aug 10 10:43pm ET

Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr is poised to have the best season of his career as he'll be playing with the best supporting cast of his career, including RB Josh Jacobs, TE Darren Waller and rookie WR Henry Ruggs III, in the opinion of NFl.com analyst Adam Rank.

Fantasy Spin: Carr has ranked as a QB1 is only one (2016) of his first six seasons and while we expect to see his numbers improve after a poor 2019, he still figures to be a mid-level QB2 at best in 2020.

From TheHuddle

Alex Smith Aug 10 10:40pm ET

At one point, it looked like Washington quarterback Alex Smith would never step onto a football field again after a devastating leg injury in 2018, but head coach Ron Rivera says that if Smith is healthy, he'll have a chance to compete for the starting job. That's bad news for second-year passer Dwayne Haskins, who struggled as a rookie. Haskins not winning the starting job this year would signal bad news for his future in Washington and could suggest that the team will be looking for a new quarterback in 2021, as Smith's not the long term answer at this point in his career. This is a quarterback room to avoid in re-draft leagues this season.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Miller Aug 10 10:30pm ET

The New England Patriots have signed former Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller to a one-year deal. Miller missed all of 2019 after tearing his ACL and MCL in preseason, but the veteran back has shown some explosiveness in the past and adds important insurance to this backfield, especially with Sony Michel (foot) not a lock to be healthy Week 1. Miller's been good before, but he's likely just keeping the seat warm for Michel and even if Michel does miss time, Miller's likely to be part of a committee approach in New England. There's not a ton of reason to be excited about this signing for fantasy purposes, but Miller could be worth a late-round dart throw in deeper formats.

From RotoBaller

Sony Michel Aug 10 10:30pm ET

New England Patriots running back Sony Michel (foot) isn't a lock to be recovered by Week 1, putting a major question mark beside the back who most expected to lead this New England backfield in rushing attempts. The team signed veteran Lamar Miller as insurance on Monday, further complicating things and suggesting that Michel's injury issues will bleed over to the regular season. You almost have to be more wary of drafting Michel than you already were with this news, and you already should have been fairly low on him. He's not undraftable, but he's become a huge risk without a lot of upside.

From RotoBaller

James O'Shaughnessy Aug 10 9:43pm ET

Jacksonville Jaguars TE James O'Shaughnessy (undisclosed) may be activated from the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list this week, according to head coach Doug Marrone.

From TheHuddle

George Kittle Aug 10 9:33pm ET

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle has not made much progress in contract extension talks with the 49ers at this point, according to his agent.

Fantasy Spin: Kittle has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL over the last few seasons and will continue to be a focal point in the passing game for the 49ers. He should be selected early in fantasy drafts and will be a weekly starting option.

From TheHuddle

Mike Daniels Aug 10 8:53pm ET

Free-agent DT Mike Daniels (Lions) likely will be the No. 3 defensive tackle for the Cincinnati Bengals if he signs with them.

From TheHuddle

Chester Rogers Aug 10 8:33pm ET

Miami Dolphins WR Chester Rogers is considered the leading candidate for the slot receiver job but will have to compete with at least WR Isaiah Ford and WR Gary Jennings for the job.

From TheHuddle