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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Week 7

Wed Oct 20 10:14am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

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Henderson is an elite fantasy back


This should be a really interesting fantasy week. There are several top fantasy players off this week, causing for some holes in lineups. But for the teams playing, several are huge favorites to win their games this week. So that means we could still get some high-scoring fantasy games despite all the players off. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

Najee Harris has a chance to be really, really good. He has an awful offensive line right now and his quarterback play hasn’t been good at all. Despite that, Harris is fourth overall in fantasy running back scoring. His volume has been through the roof this year. If the Steelers just make a few improvements the next few seasons, watch out for Harris. He is super talented with a really bright future.

I don’t think the return of Calvin Ridley will be a big issue for Kyle Pitts going forward. Pitts dominated work in Week 5 with Ridley out, getting 10 targets. But he has 19 targets his last two games and at least eight targets three of five. He is just getting on the same page with Matt Ryan and a matchup nightmare for the opposition. I really think Pitts is going to have a big finish to his  rookie season, coming out of this bye week.

Owners are freaking out over the bye weeks this week. I totally understand it. I have seen some experts posting on Twitter or writing that owners should have drafted better to not let this happen. I don’t agree with that line of thinking. I think getting the best team possible, regardless of bye weeks is the way to go. If you have to bite the bullet one week, so be it. I rarely look at bye weeks during the draft these days. I just try to draft the best team possible. There is so much that can happen during a fantasy season to impact lineups. I just think you can adjust as the season progresses. Now once the season starts and the bye weeks get near, I start to prepare. But as for before the season, forget about it.

I hate to say this but Jalen Hurts has a long way to go as an NFL quarterback. For fantasy purposes, he is just fine. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and has at least 23 fantasy points every game. His consistency is amazing. But he misses a lot of throws during a game and needs a ton of work at the position. I worry about him keeping a starting job past this season if he doesn’t start making some big strides in a hurry.

You have to wonder what the heck the Jaguars were thinking when they took running back Travis Etienne in the first round of this year’s draft. James Robinson is a really good back and one of the top starters in the league in my opinion. The Jaguars have so many needs that wasting a pick on another running back made little sense. And I think Robinson is driving this point home even more with his great play lately.

I know the season isn’t over but I will be the first to admit a mistake when I make one. And I was off on Derrick Henry this year. I was just worried about his huge workload in recent seasons and thought a regression could be coming either in performance or because of injury. I did a huge research article on workloads for running backs and the numbers weren’t favorable for Henry at all. Well, Henry proved me wrong and is the top fantasy back in the game right now. He is off to a monster start, having three games with 30-plus fantasy points. Henry has about 40 more fantasy points than the second rated fantasy back. That is a huge disparity. He has been the difference maker for fantasy owners to start the year. Swing and a miss for me on that one. 

News and Notes: The Jaguars released kicker Josh Lambo on Tuesday. He has been a healthy scratch the last two weeks. Matthew Wright has emerged as the starting kicker for the Jaguars and will keep that job moving forward. . . . .The Saints signed running back Lamar Miller to their practice squad on Tuesday. Miller gives the team a little more depth at the position, which is banged up at the moment. . . . .Chicago signed running back Chris Thompson to their practice squad on Tuesday. The Bears are another team looking for depth at running back because of injury.

HOT PLAYS

A.J. Green, WR, Cardinals. Green has been consistent as the starting receiver opposite DeAndre Hopkins. He has five receptions three of four games and at least 13 fantasy points four of five. He is getting it done on a weekly basis. And Green led the Cardinals receivers in playing time last week, playing 91 percent of the snaps. He has been on the field for at least 79 percent of the snaps every game this season. Green should keep it going this week against a Texans team allowing 249.8-passing yards per game.

Damien Harris, RB, Patriots. Harris had his second 100-yard game of the season last week and has touchdowns two straight games. He also has at least 14 carries four of six games. He isn’t catching many passes but his rushing yards and scores make him a viable No. 2 running back for fantasy teams. He has a chance to find the end zone for a third straight game this week, playing the Jets. New York has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans. Derrick Henry continues to carry the Titans offense right now, but Tannehill seems close to that big game. He hasn’t really had one yet this year. But a game against the Chiefs seems a prime time to use Tannehill. This game should be a shootout with a ton of fantasy points on both sides. Tannehill does have two games this season with 40 or more pass attempts. If that happens this week, look for a big game from Tannehill against the Chiefs. Kansas City allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams. Henderson scored multiple touchdowns for the first time all season lsat week. He had 107 total yards and two scores. Henderson has been as consistent as any fantasy back all season. He has at least 15.7 fantasy points every game. His floor has been very high. Expect more good things from him this week, playing the Lions. Detroit is 26th against the run and allow the second most fantasy points to running backs.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons. Ridley is back from his time off for personal reasons. He should be just fine going forward as the No. 1 target in the Falcons passing attack. Ridley’s high in yards just year is 80 but he is getting the looks having at least seven receptions three straight games. He is ready for one of his huge games. That huge game might come this week against the Dolphins, a team with all sorts of injuries to key players in their secondary. Miami allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and rank 29th overall against the pass.

COLD PLAYS 

Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. Mayfield scored multiple touchdowns last week but still failed to top 20 fantasy points. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points four of six games. He also is battling a shoulder injury, which is another concern. Mayfield just isn’t getting it done right now for his fantasy owners. And despite the team being without their top two running backs this week, Mayfield remains a risky play. His production just hasn’t been there this season. Plus, he plays a Broncos team that allows the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots. Meyers has been a dependable option this year, having double-digit fantasy points four of six games. He has been consistent, racking up the catches on a weekly basis. He has at least four receptions every games. Unfortunately, he has yet to score a touchdown and has fewer than 50 yards three games. He has been pretty mediocre many weeks. Meyers might have another one of those down games this week against the Jets. New York has allowed just four passing touchdowns all year and give up the fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. Gordon has been really mediocre since Week 3. He had 15-plus points two of his first three games but hasn’t topped that mark since. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of his last three games. It just seems a matter of time before rookie Javonte Williams starts cutting into his playing time even more. We would steer clear of Gordon this week against the Browns. Cleveland is sixth overall against the run and allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Henry Ruggs, WR, Raiders. Ruggs is having a much better second season, nearing 450-receiving yards after six games. He has been a little hit or miss, though. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of six games. He doesn’t get a ton of weekly targets. Ruggs has just three receptions three straight games and his season high in receptions is five. We think this week might be one of his down weeks once again, likely facing Darius Slay in coverage. The Eagles also allow the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Devontae Booker, RB, Giants. Booker got the start last week and plenty of work in that role. He ran 12 times for just 41 yards, though, and caught four passes for 28 yards. He didn’t do much with his workload against a good Rams defense. We would not surprise to see him have a similar game in Week 7 against the Panthers. Carolina is another team good against the run. The Panthers allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs.

SLEEPERS

Allen Lazard, WR, Packers. Lazard has not topped 50 yards all season but scored his first touchdown of the season last week. He also has multiple receptions three straight games. Lazard has played at least 79 percent of the snaps each of his last three games. He is on the field and getting some weekly looks. It just seems a matter of time before he has a breakout game. And we think that game might be this week against Washington, a team that can’t stop anyone through the air right now and allow the second most fantasy points to receivers.

Jameis Winston, QB, Saints. Winston has been wildly inconsistent this year but had maybe his best game of the season his last time out. He threw four touchdown passes. The big takeaway in the game was his 30 pass attempts, which was a season high. This could be a trend going forward, having Winston air the ball out a little more. The offense has been stagnant at times, so maybe taking the reigns off Winston is the way to go for the Saints. And if they do that this week against the Seahawks, Winston is capable of another big performance. Seattle is 28th against the pass, allowing 292.3-passing yards per game.

Mike Davis, RB, Falcons. Cordarrelle Patterson has been the best Falcons fantasy back this year, but Davis has shown flashes. He still gets most of the carries and has a role in the passing game. Davis has double-digit fantasy points every game. And he had a season-high 14.1 fantasy points his last time out. Look for Davis to build on that this week against the Dolphins. Miami allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.

Justin Fields, QB, Bears. Fields is yet to do much for fantasy teams just yet. His season high in fantasy points is just 16, which he reached last week. We all know the potential is there, though, especially because Fields is capable of making big plays with his legs. If he can keep progressing, he is going to help fantasy teams. And that help might come this week against Tampa. The Bucs allow the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 27th overall against the pass.

Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs. The Chiefs brought in Josh Gordon to help at receiver, but Hardman remains a big part of the passing game. His playing time hasn’t been impacted much at all. His production has actually improved since Gordon has played. Hardman has 13 receptions for 138 yards on 17 targets his last two games. He has double-digit fantasy points four of six games. Hardman might have season best numbers this week against the Titans in what should be a shootout of a game. Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to receivers.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Washington/Packers, Chiefs/Titans, Bengals/Ravens, Lions/Rams, Texans/Cardinals.

Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Browns, Panthers/Giants, Colts/49ers.

Bye Weeks: Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Jalen McMillan Apr 26 11:10pm ET
Jalen McMillan

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan with the 92nd overall pick in the NFL draft. McMillan totaled 559 yards on 45 catches with five scores in 11 games last season. He plays mostly from the slot and did have a nagging knee injury that limited his catches considerably compared to 2022, where he caught 79 passes. The 22-year-old does well in changing speeds in a route to put defensive backs on their heels. McMillan joins a veteran-led wide receiver room with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. McMillan should be in contention to serve as the number three option with Trey Palmer, who Tampa selected last season. McMillan should be a popular pick in rookie drafts and could carve out a role in redraft as well.

From RotoBaller

MarShawn Lloyd Apr 26 11:00pm ET
MarShawn Lloyd

The Green Bay Packers selected USC running back MarShawn Lloyd with the 88th pick in the NFL draft. Lloyd is credited for having great acceleration and the ability to bounce outside the tackles. He averaged over seven yards per carry last season, which showcases his big-play ability. The 23-year-old ran for 820 yards and nine scores last season. Lloyd joins a running back room that just welcomed Josh Jacobs, which will limit his fantasy value early on, but he could grow into a part-time contributor over the course of his rookie season.

From RotoBaller

J.J. McCarthy Apr 26 10:50pm ET
J.J. McCarthy

The Pittsburgh Steelers have selected University of Michigan wide receiver Roman Wilson with the No. 84 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 22-year-old was one of J.J. McCarthy's favorite targets on the national champion Wolverines. He caught 49 passes for 789 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023, showcasing his speed, hands, and route running skills on a national stage. The Steelers have been looking for wide receiver help ever since trading Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers. Wilson could immediately slot into the Steelers' No. 2 wide receiver role alongside George Pickens, giving him appeal in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

From RotoBaller

Tip Reiman Apr 26 10:50pm ET
Tip Reiman

The Cardinals selected University of Illinois tight end Tip Reiman with the No. 82 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He played four years at Illinois, totaling 420 yards and five touchdowns off 41 catches. While the 22-year-old has plenty of positive attributes, he wasn't as productive at the collegiate level as others in his class. With that said, Reiman will have a chance to carve out playing time in Arizona, a team in a transition phase. However, he'll need to compete for snaps with Trey McBride, one of the league's emerging tight ends.

From RotoBaller

Joe Burrow Apr 26 10:40pm ET
Joe Burrow

The Bengals selected Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton with the No. 80 pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The 22-year-old began his collegiate career at Georgia. However, he played at Alabama in the last two seasons. During his time with the Crimson Tide, he totaled 79 catches for 1,479 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also averaged 20.5 yards per catch as a senior. It will be tough for anyone to get consistently involved offensively with Ja'Marr Chase and potentially Tee Higgins in the equation. However, If Burton gets snaps, he could flourish catching passes from Joe Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League.

From RotoBaller

Blake Corum Apr 26 10:40pm ET
Blake Corum

The Los Angeles Rams have selected University of Michigan running back Blake Corum with the No. 83 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The national champion is the third running back off the board following Texas' Jonathon Brooks and Florida State's Trey Benson. He totaled 2,905 scrimmage yards and a whopping 47 touchdowns over his last two seasons. He's not a major contributor in the passing game but clearly carves out plenty of work on the ground and near the goal line. Kyren Williams is still Los Angeles' top running back, but Corum should carve out a role and could even have immediate fantasy appeal given his nose for the end zone.

From RotoBaller

Trey Benson Apr 26 9:50pm ET
Trey Benson

The Arizona Cardinals selected Florida State running back Trey Benson with the 66th overall pick in the NFL Draft. Benson could be the most complete running back in the draft class. He excelled at breaking tackles, setting the single-season FBS record by forcing 0.51 missed tackles per run. The 21-year-old also possesses great breakaway speed with 14 runs of 20 or more yards (ninth in FBS). Last season, Benson ran for 906 yards on the ground and 227 through the air and 15 total scores. He will join veteran James Connor, who could limit his fantasy value early on, but he should be an early second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

From RotoBaller

Malachi Corley Apr 26 9:40pm ET
Malachi Corley

The New York Jets traded up with the Carolina Panthers to select Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley. Corley led the nation in yards after catch over the past two seasons, has great elusiveness, and had the most receptions in the FBS over the past three seasons with 253. The 22-year-old can threaten vertically as well and should be a strong deep threat option for Aaron Rodgers. Corley joins a wide receiver room with star Garrett Wilson and newly acquired Mike Williams. Corley could be a sleeper pick in fantasy this season as he could slot in as the number two option with the injury-prone Mike Williams.

From RotoBaller

Jayden Daniels Apr 26 9:00pm ET
Jayden Daniels

The Commanders selected Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott with the No. 53 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 21-year-old is coming off the best collegiate season of his career, totaling 49 catches for 676 yards and six touchdowns. While he's still young, he has the tools needed to be a potent pass-catcher moving ahead. Of course, Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz for playing time. It could also take Jayden Daniels some time to find his rhythm in Washington, meaning Sinnott might not be productive immediately.

From RotoBaller

Kool-Aid McKinstry Apr 26 8:50pm ET
Kool-Aid McKinstry

With the No. 41 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Saints selected Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. New Orleans traded with Green Bay for this pick, so the 21-year-old will fill a void on the defensive side of the ball. McKinstry, a 2023 All-American, played three seasons at Alabama. He totaled 93 tackles (62 solo), adding two picks, two sacks, and 23 passes defensed. With the Saints looking to finish atop the NFC South in 2024-25, McKinstry should play a pivotal role right out of the gate.

From RotoBaller

Adonai Mitchell Apr 26 8:40pm ET
Adonai Mitchell

The Indianapolis Colts selected Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the No. 52 overall pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Mitchell was rumored to be taken as high as the middle of Round 1, but he ultimately fell a bit and landed with quarterback Anthony Richarson. Mitchell spent two seasons at Georgia before transferring to the Longhorns, where he racked up 55 receptions for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns while playing alongside Xavier Worthy and J'Tavion Sanders. With Michael Pittman Jr. in town, Mitchell might be capped in the WR2 role, but the development of Richardson will dictate how much upside he may have.

From RotoBaller

Roschon Johnson Apr 26 8:30pm ET
Roschon Johnson

The Carolina Panthers traded with the Indianapolis Colts to move up to the 46th spot to select Texas Longhorns running back Jonathon Brooks (knee). He was behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson on the Texas depth chart for two seasons. However, he broke out in 2023 with 1,139 yards and 10 rushing scores and was named second-team All-Big 12. The 20-year-old tore his ACL late in the season but should be ready for training camp. Brooks joins a crowded running back room with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, which could limit his fantasy value early in the season, but he should be a late first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Lawrence Apr 26 8:13pm ET
Trevor Lawrence

Dynasty | The 23rd overall pick in the draft, Brian Thomas, Jr., gives Trevor Lawrence a premier downfield threat. Dynasty Analysis: After losing Calvin Ridley to free agency, Lawrence was facing a dearth of receiving options like he hadn't seen in his three year career. Bringing in Brian Thomas, Jr. may even prove to be an upgrade for Lawrence as he looks to bounce back from a disappointing season. Lawrence was able to maintain a top 10 ranking among DLF rankers, but has been closer to dropping below his QB9 rank than rising back into the top five. The selection of Thomas might not move the needle for Lawrence's immediate dynasty value, but should give him every opportunity to outperform his projections.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Keon Coleman Apr 26 8:13pm ET
Keon Coleman

Dynasty | The Buffalo Bills drafted FSU wide receiver Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman was shut out of the first round but landed in a great spot, taken with the first pick of the second round by the Buffalo Bills. It's a dream scenario for Coleman, who lands with an elite quarterback in dire need of new weapons after losing so many this off-season. Coleman has work to do for sure but his landing spot is going to place him in the first round of virtually every rookie draft.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Ladd McConkey Apr 26 8:13pm ET
Ladd McConkey

Dynasty | Ladd McConkey was drafted by the Chargers with the second pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: McConkey was taken early in the second round by the suddenly receiver-needy Chargers. A precise route runner with serious quickness, McConkey is going to be thrown into action early and often this season. He had a meteoric rise after the NFL Draft Combine and that, combined with a great landing spot, should keep him right around the turn of rounds one and two in rookie drafts.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Xavier Worthy Apr 26 8:13pm ET
Xavier Worthy

Dynasty | Kelce is the sneaky winner of the defending champs' first round selection of WR Xavier Worthy. Dynasty Analysis: Adding another burner opposite Marquise "Hollywood" Brown gives the Chiefs the fastest receiving corps in the league. While neither WR expects to command an overwhelming target share, the biggest benefactor will be TE Travis Kelce as he operates in the wide open spaces of the middle of the field. Kelce's dynasty value has been creeping downward due to his age (34), dropping from his long time throne as QB1 all the way to QB6 in DLF's dynasty rankings. With the field-stretching speedsters on the perimeter opening up the field, Kelce is a virtual lock to outperform most of the tight ends currently ranked ahead of him.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Justin Herbert Apr 26 8:13pm ET
Justin Herbert

Dynasty | After getting a new left tackle in round one, Justin Herbert's stock continues to rise as the Chargers trade up for Ladd McConkey. Dynasty Analysis: Even after the team used it's fifth overall pick to protect Herbert's blindside, skepticism remained due to a lack of weaponry. But the Chargers moved up three spots to acquire a new top pass catcher (and Keenan Allen replacement in the slot), Ladd McConkey. The Chargers likely aren't done building the offense around Herbert, but with just those two draft picks, the franchise has made their quarterback a dynasty value. DLF's QB6 has QB1 overall upside with his own skillset and a little help from his supporting cast.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Drake Maye Apr 26 8:13pm ET
Drake Maye

Dynasty | The Patriots drafted Washington wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected, Polk was drafted right in the middle of a big receiver run in the NFL Draft, going to the Patriots early in round two. He was the tenth receiver taken but amazingly the 37th overall pick, which just shows the depth of this draft. Polk lands in a desirable spot as the Patriots depth chart at receiver is a mess. He'll need to grow together with Drake Maye but some patience could be rewarded here. Polk looks like a pretty solid pick in round two of conventional rookie drafts.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Ja'Lynn Polk Apr 26 7:50pm ET
Ja'Lynn Polk

The New England Patriots selected Washington wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk with the No. 37 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. New England has often been predicted to pick a wide receiver in Round 2 after landing their QB of the future in Round 1, and that's exactly what they did. Despite sharing the field with stud wide receiver Rome Odunze in 2023, Polk caught 69 passes for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns during Washington's run to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Given the weak wide receiver room in New England, he's another rookie wideout who could become his team's No. 1 wide receiver in short order. He has the ability to start at X-receiver immediately.

From RotoBaller

Keon Coleman Apr 26 7:30pm ET
Keon Coleman

The Buffalo Bills have selected Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman with the No. 33 overall pick (second round) in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 20-year-old was rumored to have a chance at being drafted in the first round, but Buffalo traded back twice and still landed him. The 6'4", 215-pound pass-catcher is a contested-catch specialist and racked up 18 touchdowns in his last 24 games with Florida State and Michigan State. With Stefon Diggs gone to Houston, Coleman could step in right away and act as Josh Allen's No. 1 wide receiver. This is a great landing spot, and Coleman is very much in the first-round conversation of upcoming rookie drafts in all formats.

From RotoBaller