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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Sanoussi Kane May 2 5:40pm ET
Sanoussi Kane

The Baltimore Ravens have signed first-round defensive back Nate Wiggins to his rookie deal. The Ravens have also locked up second-round offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten, fourth-round defensive back T.J. Tampa and seventh-round defensive back Sanoussi Kane. The Ravens made Wiggins their first pick of this year's NFL draft with the 30th overall selection out of Clemson. The 20-year-old cornerback stands a 6-foot-1, 173 pounds, so durability is going to be his primary issue as he transitions to the NFL. He'll have room to grow and get stronger, though, and his elite speed and coverage ability stood out enough for Baltimore to make him a first-rounder. As long as Wiggins doesn't get set back by injuries, he should develop into a serviceable DB for the Ravens in time.

From RotoBaller

Dameon Pierce May 2 4:50pm ET
Dameon Pierce

Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce had a notable rookie campaign after being selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. In just 13 games before being sidelined with injuries, he racked up 939 yards and four touchdowns on 220 carries and caught 30 passes for 165 yards and one score. However, his role, production, and efficiency declined in 2023 after the arrival of Devin Singletary, as he posted just 517 total yards and rushed for 2.9 yards per carry. Singletary is now gone, but the team traded for former Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon. Despite this, Texans general manager Nick Caserio spoke highly of Pierce in a recent media availability. "He is going to be a big part of what we're doing. Watching him move on the field, he looks pretty good. Everybody's looking forward to the opportunity in front of them; you can't worry about what's happened in the past," Caserio said. "He's got as good an attitude as anyone on the team. We're glad DP is here." While you never know whether a head coach or general manager is being honest in these situations, Caserio's comments can only help his fantasy stock. Fantasy managers should go into the season with low expectations for Pierce, but he should at least be viewed as a high-end handcuff running back in what projects to be one of the league's best offenses.

From RotoBaller

Kwity Paye May 2 4:40pm ET
Kwity Paye

The Indianapolis Colts have exercised the fifth-year option on defensive lineman Kwity Paye, the team announced on X on Thursday. The former No. 21 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Michigan hasn't been an elite rusher since entering the league, but he posted a career-high 8.5 sacks in 2023. Over his first 43 NFL games, he's racked up 129 tackles (79 solo), 18.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, five fumble recoveries, 18 run stuffs, and one pass deflection. He's played well enough to warrant another year under contract, so he won't hit free agency until at least the 2026 offseason.

From RotoBaller

Joey Slye May 2 4:30pm ET
Joey Slye

Veteran free-agent kicker Joey Slye signed with the New England Patriots on Thursday, according to NFL.com. The 28-year-old signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars at the start of free agency on March 18 but was released just over a month later after the team drafted former Arkansas kicker Cam Little in the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Since entering the league in 2018 as an undrafted free agent, Slye has spent time with the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Jaguars. In 75 career games, he has connected on 121 of his 147 field goal attempts and 138 of his 156 extra-point tries. He will likely compete with Chad Ryland for the starting place-kicking duties for New England this offseason.

From RotoBaller

Justin Fields May 2 4:20pm ET
Justin Fields

The Pittsburgh Steelers have officially declined the fifth-year option on quarterback Justin Fields. This is not a surprise, as the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has been disappointing to start his career and was recently dealt from the Chicago Bears to the Steelers for a conditional sixth-round pick. The expectation is that Russell Wilson will be the Week 1 start for Pittsburgh in 2024, but Fields could be waiting in the wings if he struggles like he did in Denver. It will be interesting to see how much of a chance Fields gets to show what he can do with a change of scenery. If he plays in at least a handful of games and exceeds expectations, he could improve his market value and hit free agency next offseason.

From RotoBaller

Najee Harris May 2 4:10pm ET
Najee Harris

The Pittsburgh Steelers are declining running back Najee Harris' fifth-year option, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. This is somewhat of a surprise, but the 2021 first-round selection has not lived up to the hype as a prospect or matched his rookie-year production. In 51 games over three seasons, Harris has rushed 834 times for 3,269 yards (3.9 YPC) and 22 touchdowns to go along with 144 receptions for 866 yards and six scores through the air. Picking up the option would've cost the Steelers just $6.79 million, but he is now set to potentially become a free agent next offseason. This could put Jaylen Warren in the clear RB1 role in 2025, but surely, the team will add to the position if they move on from Harris.

From RotoBaller

Justin Herbert May 2 3:10pm ET
Justin Herbert

The Los Angeles Chargers officially picked up left tackle Rashawn Slater's fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Thursday. Slater, who was taken with the 13th overall pick in 2021 out of Northwestern, was a Pro Bowler in his rookie season before playing in just three games in 2022 due to a torn biceps. The 25-year-old returned last year to start all 17 games for the Chargers while protecting quarterback Justin Herbert's blind side. The Bolts added offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in this year's draft, but he will shift over to right tackle as long as Slater remains healthy. If he returns to his rookie-year form and Alt lives up to his draft stock, LA's new run-first offense should be in excellent shape to begin the Jim Harbaugh era in 2024.

From RotoBaller

JuJu Smith-Schuster May 2 2:40pm ET
JuJu Smith-Schuster

Starting next month, the New England Patriots could cut wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster at a cost of $9.6 million in dead money and no salary cap relief, per Over the Cap, while releasing him before then would incur $2.6 million more in dead money and take a small chunk out of their league-leading $54 million cap room. If the Pats traded Smith-Schuster after June 1, they'd save almost $7 million in cap space and clear room for their young receivers to see more playing time. New England could prioritize playing time for rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, plus 2023 sixth-rounder Demario Douglas. It all means that Smith-Schuster may no longer be the team's No. 2 receiver, especially with Kendrick Bourne and K.J. Osborn also on the roster.

From RotoBaller

Bailey Zappe May 2 2:30pm ET
Bailey Zappe

The Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan suggests that quarterback Bailey Zappe could be a trade candidate after the team added Drake Maye and Joe Milton III in this year's draft. Maye and veteran Jacoby Brissett are locks for the Week 1 roster, making it a three-way fight for the No. 3 job between Zappe, Milton and Nathan Rourke. Zappe would fetch the biggest return in a trade, especially if the Patriots wait until the summer when other QBs begin getting injured in training camp. If Milton isn't a complete disaster in spring practices and Rourke performs at a replacement level, Zappe could be out of town by Sept. 1. The 25-year-old Zappe appeared in 10 games (six starts) for New England in 2023 in his second season and threw for 1,272 yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions.

From RotoBaller

T.J. Hockenson May 2 2:20pm ET
T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee) is ahead of scheduled in his rehab this offseason, but the Vikings are committed to ensuring he is fully healthy before he plays. Last year's contract cemented the team's belief that he is one of its cornerstone players when he's healthy, and they aren't just going to rush a player like that back from a severe injury. Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt will fill in if Hockenson needs to miss the first couple weeks of the 2204 season. Hockenson suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in late December last year, and his recovery this offseason will be a big storyline for Minnesota's offense as they move to a new era without quarterback Kirk Cousins. When healthy, Hockenson is a high-end TE1 in fantasy, but he'll come at a discounted price in drafts this fall if it's looking like he won't be ready to start the year on time.

From RotoBaller

Khalil Herbert May 2 2:20pm ET
Khalil Herbert

The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain wonders if running back Khalil Herbert would be a trade candidate if the Chicago Bears bring in an undrafted rookie at the position and he impresses. Of course, this all depends on the development of Roschon Johnson. Herbert is entering the final year of his rookie deal. D'Andre Swift signed a three-year contract with the Bears this offseason, while Johnson has the same number of years remaining on his first contract after being drafted in the fourth round in 2023. Herbert is a solid back, but RBI is a position that changes often for teams. Chicago's coaching staff is high on Johnson, and the 26-year-old Herbert dealt with ankle and back injuries last year after leading the NFL with 5.7 yards per carry in 2022. The addition of Swift in this backfield obviously hurts Herbert's fantasy stock a great deal heading into the 2024 season.

From RotoBaller

Nick Chubb May 2 2:10pm ET
Nick Chubb

Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry said that running back Nick Chubb (knee) is "progressing nicely" in his recovery from the gruesome knee injury that he suffered in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023. However, Berry also said Chubb "still has a long way to go" in his rehab. Chubb resumed running on land a few weeks ago, but it remains to be seen if he'll be ready for the start of training camp this summer. The Browns didn't take a RB in this year's draft but added D'Onta Foreman and pass-catching back Nyheim Hines in free agency. Cleveland also has Jerome Ford as an option to help ease Chubb back into the fold if he's still not 100 percent early on in 2024. Before his injury, Chubb as a no-doubt RB1, but that will be in question this fall as he comes off his season-ending injury.

From RotoBaller

Jermaine Burton May 2 8:59am ET
Jermaine Burton

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Jermaine Burton could have a leg up on the No. 3 job in Cincy in 2024 behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins if he can acclimate quickly due to his size, explosiveness and versatility. However, Charlie Jones could also carve out a bigger role as a more traditional slot receiver in his second NFL season now that he's fully healthy. Andrei Iosivas impressed as a rookie in 2023 and isn't going anywhere, so there's definitely going to be competition behind Chase and Higgins. If trust from quarterback Joe Burrow is the key, The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. writes that nobody would be surprised if the reliable Trenton Irwin ends up being the starting slot receiver in Week 1. Unless Chase or Higgins miss time with injury, the Bengals' No. 3 wideout is going to have a tough time being fantasy relevant on a weekly basis. Just ask Tyler Boyd.

Kyle Pitts May 2 8:59am ET
Kyle Pitts

Dynasty | The Atlanta Falcons have exercised the fifth-year option on the contract of tight end Kyle Pitts. Dynasty Analysis: Pitts was great in his rookie season but his play has really fallen off the past two seasons. Atlanta obviously believes their sub-par quarterback play has had a lot to do with that as the likes of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder have held the entire offense back. Pitts will look to bounce back with Kirk Cousins (and maybe even Michael Penix eventually). If you're still a big-time believer in his ability, this off-season will represent what could be the last "buy low" opportunity for him in dynasty leagues.

Audric Estime May 2 8:59am ET
Audric Estime

Despite having Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin on the roster, the Denver Broncos selected former Notre Dame running back Audric Estime in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The 221-pound bruiser likely saw his stock fall after posting a 4.71 forty-yard dash time at the NFL combine, but Sean Payton and company stopped the fall. In a media availability after the draft, Payton called Estime a " first and second-down runner" with experience in a pro-style offense. With Williams posting just 3.6 yards per carry last season and Perine having a limited role, Estime could be in play for early-down work right away as a rookie. His fantasy upside will be limited, but any role as a fifth-round rookie would mean exceeding expectations.

Deon Jackson May 2 1:00am ET
Deon Jackson

The New York Giants could look to add a veteran presence to their backfield before the 2024 NFL season, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. "This is a spot that could call for a cheap veteran reinforcement, even if that's just re-signing Matt Breida," Duggan writes. New York's backfield is currently led by Devin Singletary who flashed potential in Houston last season but has never been an every-down back. Below Singletary on the depth chart are rookies Dante Miller and Tyrone Tracy, as well as Eric Gray, Gary Brightwell, Deon Jackson, and Jashaun Corbin, who are most likely non-factors. The Giants' offense consistently gave Saquon Barkley 20-plus touches, but Singletary can't handle that workload on his own. Signing another veteran running back to take some pressure off the 26-year-old makes plenty of sense. For now, though, Singletary remains the only Giants running back worth rostering in redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Anthony Richardson May 2 12:20am ET
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will be more aware of the speed and violence of the football game around him so that he can better protect himself heading into his second pro season, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter told members of the media. Richardson was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft but made just four starts as a rookie before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Richardson's physicality and athleticism helped him become a top pick and budding NFL star, but these same qualities likely made him more susceptible to injury, too. Cooter's comments should provide Colts fans and fantasy managers with some optimism that Richardson can stay healthy in 2024. At the same time, though, they also suggest that Richardson may tone down his physicality, which could lead to fewer rushing yards and touchdowns, as well as more sacks. Fantasy managers should view the Indianapolis signal-caller as a fringe QB1 heading into drafts.

From RotoBaller

Zach Ertz May 2 12:10am ET
Zach Ertz

Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz could face competition from rookie Ben Sinnott heading into the 2024 season, according to Ben Standig of The Athletic. Ertz landed with Washington during free agency as the Commanders looked to replace fellow veteran Logan Thomas. While Ertz currently has a grasp on the No. 1 tight end role, Washington did spend a second-round pick on Sinnott, a Kansas State product, suggesting there could be some competition and turnover at the position. Standig writes that "Sinnott's unique versatility means he could carve out a role in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's attack," implying the rookie has an inside track to earning targets right away. Ertz might still be the preferred option to open the year, but Sinnott will get involved. As a result, both tight ends should be avoided in most redraft formats. Sinnott, however, is an intriguing depth name in dynasty leagues.

From RotoBaller

Darius Slayton May 2 12:00am ET
Darius Slayton

New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton is expected to remain a starter despite the addition of first-round pick Malik Nabers, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. Duggan notes that while Slayton has expressed frustration about his current contract status, the pass-catcher is expected to open the 2024 campaign as New York's No. 2 receiver behind Nabers. Such an alignment would push Jalin Hyatt into the No. 3 role, at least to start the year. Isaiah Hodgins, Isaiah McKenzie, and Gunner Olszewski would round out the depth chart. With uncertainty at quarterback and increased competition in the passing game, Slayton isn't a very enticing name for the 2024 fantasy football season. In all likelihood, he'll open the year on the fringe of rosters and waiver wires in most 12-team redraft formats.

From RotoBaller

Jalin Hyatt May 2 12:00am ET
Jalin Hyatt

New York Giants wide receiver Jalin Hyatt has likely dropped to No. 3 on the depth chart after the team spent a first-round pick on Malik Nabers, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. Duggan notes that Nabers already has the inside path to being New York's No. 1 receiver and Darius Slayton will likely start opposite him. With that said, there could be an opportunity for Hyatt to surpass Slayton on the depth chart. "The plan should be for Hyatt to take on a bigger role this season and eventually replace Slayton," writes Duggan. Such a plan would put Hyatt on the radar in deeper dynasty leagues, but he can be avoided in most redraft formats.

From RotoBaller