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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Super Bowl

Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pacheco is playing at high level


Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.

If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.

On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.

We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.

News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday. 

HOT PLAYS

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.

COLD PLAYS 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.

SLEEPERS

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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2024 NFL Draft Recap

Player Notes
Justin Herbert May 2 3:10pm ET
Justin Herbert

The Los Angeles Chargers officially picked up left tackle Rashawn Slater's fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Thursday. Slater, who was taken with the 13th overall pick in 2021 out of Northwestern, was a Pro Bowler in his rookie season before playing in just three games in 2022 due to a torn biceps. The 25-year-old returned last year to start all 17 games for the Chargers while protecting quarterback Justin Herbert's blind side. The Bolts added offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in this year's draft, but he will shift over to right tackle as long as Slater remains healthy. If he returns to his rookie-year form and Alt lives up to his draft stock, LA's new run-first offense should be in excellent shape to begin the Jim Harbaugh era in 2024.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster May 2 2:40pm ET
JuJu Smith-Schuster

Starting next month, the New England Patriots could cut wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster at a cost of $9.6 million in dead money and no salary cap relief, per Over the Cap, while releasing him before then would incur $2.6 million more in dead money and take a small chunk out of their league-leading $54 million cap room. If the Pats traded Smith-Schuster after June 1, they'd save almost $7 million in cap space and clear room for their young receivers to see more playing time. New England could prioritize playing time for rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, plus 2023 sixth-rounder Demario Douglas. It all means that Smith-Schuster may no longer be the team's No. 2 receiver, especially with Kendrick Bourne and K.J. Osborn also on the roster.

From RotoBaller

Bailey Zappe May 2 2:30pm ET
Bailey Zappe

The Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan suggests that quarterback Bailey Zappe could be a trade candidate after the team added Drake Maye and Joe Milton III in this year's draft. Maye and veteran Jacoby Brissett are locks for the Week 1 roster, making it a three-way fight for the No. 3 job between Zappe, Milton and Nathan Rourke. Zappe would fetch the biggest return in a trade, especially if the Patriots wait until the summer when other QBs begin getting injured in training camp. If Milton isn't a complete disaster in spring practices and Rourke performs at a replacement level, Zappe could be out of town by Sept. 1. The 25-year-old Zappe appeared in 10 games (six starts) for New England in 2023 in his second season and threw for 1,272 yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions.

From RotoBaller

T.J. Hockenson May 2 2:20pm ET
T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee) is ahead of scheduled in his rehab this offseason, but the Vikings are committed to ensuring he is fully healthy before he plays. Last year's contract cemented the team's belief that he is one of its cornerstone players when he's healthy, and they aren't just going to rush a player like that back from a severe injury. Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt will fill in if Hockenson needs to miss the first couple weeks of the 2204 season. Hockenson suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in late December last year, and his recovery this offseason will be a big storyline for Minnesota's offense as they move to a new era without quarterback Kirk Cousins. When healthy, Hockenson is a high-end TE1 in fantasy, but he'll come at a discounted price in drafts this fall if it's looking like he won't be ready to start the year on time.

From RotoBaller

Khalil Herbert May 2 2:20pm ET
Khalil Herbert

The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain wonders if running back Khalil Herbert would be a trade candidate if the Chicago Bears bring in an undrafted rookie at the position and he impresses. Of course, this all depends on the development of Roschon Johnson. Herbert is entering the final year of his rookie deal. D'Andre Swift signed a three-year contract with the Bears this offseason, while Johnson has the same number of years remaining on his first contract after being drafted in the fourth round in 2023. Herbert is a solid back, but RBI is a position that changes often for teams. Chicago's coaching staff is high on Johnson, and the 26-year-old Herbert dealt with ankle and back injuries last year after leading the NFL with 5.7 yards per carry in 2022. The addition of Swift in this backfield obviously hurts Herbert's fantasy stock a great deal heading into the 2024 season.

From RotoBaller

Nick Chubb May 2 2:10pm ET
Nick Chubb

Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry said that running back Nick Chubb (knee) is "progressing nicely" in his recovery from the gruesome knee injury that he suffered in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023. However, Berry also said Chubb "still has a long way to go" in his rehab. Chubb resumed running on land a few weeks ago, but it remains to be seen if he'll be ready for the start of training camp this summer. The Browns didn't take a RB in this year's draft but added D'Onta Foreman and pass-catching back Nyheim Hines in free agency. Cleveland also has Jerome Ford as an option to help ease Chubb back into the fold if he's still not 100 percent early on in 2024. Before his injury, Chubb as a no-doubt RB1, but that will be in question this fall as he comes off his season-ending injury.

From RotoBaller

Jermaine Burton May 2 8:59am ET
Jermaine Burton

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Jermaine Burton could have a leg up on the No. 3 job in Cincy in 2024 behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins if he can acclimate quickly due to his size, explosiveness and versatility. However, Charlie Jones could also carve out a bigger role as a more traditional slot receiver in his second NFL season now that he's fully healthy. Andrei Iosivas impressed as a rookie in 2023 and isn't going anywhere, so there's definitely going to be competition behind Chase and Higgins. If trust from quarterback Joe Burrow is the key, The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. writes that nobody would be surprised if the reliable Trenton Irwin ends up being the starting slot receiver in Week 1. Unless Chase or Higgins miss time with injury, the Bengals' No. 3 wideout is going to have a tough time being fantasy relevant on a weekly basis. Just ask Tyler Boyd.

Kyle Pitts May 2 8:59am ET
Kyle Pitts

Dynasty | The Atlanta Falcons have exercised the fifth-year option on the contract of tight end Kyle Pitts. Dynasty Analysis: Pitts was great in his rookie season but his play has really fallen off the past two seasons. Atlanta obviously believes their sub-par quarterback play has had a lot to do with that as the likes of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder have held the entire offense back. Pitts will look to bounce back with Kirk Cousins (and maybe even Michael Penix eventually). If you're still a big-time believer in his ability, this off-season will represent what could be the last "buy low" opportunity for him in dynasty leagues.

Audric Estime May 2 8:59am ET
Audric Estime

Despite having Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin on the roster, the Denver Broncos selected former Notre Dame running back Audric Estime in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The 221-pound bruiser likely saw his stock fall after posting a 4.71 forty-yard dash time at the NFL combine, but Sean Payton and company stopped the fall. In a media availability after the draft, Payton called Estime a " first and second-down runner" with experience in a pro-style offense. With Williams posting just 3.6 yards per carry last season and Perine having a limited role, Estime could be in play for early-down work right away as a rookie. His fantasy upside will be limited, but any role as a fifth-round rookie would mean exceeding expectations.

Deon Jackson May 2 1:00am ET
Deon Jackson

The New York Giants could look to add a veteran presence to their backfield before the 2024 NFL season, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. "This is a spot that could call for a cheap veteran reinforcement, even if that's just re-signing Matt Breida," Duggan writes. New York's backfield is currently led by Devin Singletary who flashed potential in Houston last season but has never been an every-down back. Below Singletary on the depth chart are rookies Dante Miller and Tyrone Tracy, as well as Eric Gray, Gary Brightwell, Deon Jackson, and Jashaun Corbin, who are most likely non-factors. The Giants' offense consistently gave Saquon Barkley 20-plus touches, but Singletary can't handle that workload on his own. Signing another veteran running back to take some pressure off the 26-year-old makes plenty of sense. For now, though, Singletary remains the only Giants running back worth rostering in redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Anthony Richardson May 2 12:20am ET
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will be more aware of the speed and violence of the football game around him so that he can better protect himself heading into his second pro season, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter told members of the media. Richardson was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft but made just four starts as a rookie before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Richardson's physicality and athleticism helped him become a top pick and budding NFL star, but these same qualities likely made him more susceptible to injury, too. Cooter's comments should provide Colts fans and fantasy managers with some optimism that Richardson can stay healthy in 2024. At the same time, though, they also suggest that Richardson may tone down his physicality, which could lead to fewer rushing yards and touchdowns, as well as more sacks. Fantasy managers should view the Indianapolis signal-caller as a fringe QB1 heading into drafts.

From RotoBaller

Zach Ertz May 2 12:10am ET
Zach Ertz

Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz could face competition from rookie Ben Sinnott heading into the 2024 season, according to Ben Standig of The Athletic. Ertz landed with Washington during free agency as the Commanders looked to replace fellow veteran Logan Thomas. While Ertz currently has a grasp on the No. 1 tight end role, Washington did spend a second-round pick on Sinnott, a Kansas State product, suggesting there could be some competition and turnover at the position. Standig writes that "Sinnott's unique versatility means he could carve out a role in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's attack," implying the rookie has an inside track to earning targets right away. Ertz might still be the preferred option to open the year, but Sinnott will get involved. As a result, both tight ends should be avoided in most redraft formats. Sinnott, however, is an intriguing depth name in dynasty leagues.

From RotoBaller

Darius Slayton May 2 12:00am ET
Darius Slayton

New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton is expected to remain a starter despite the addition of first-round pick Malik Nabers, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. Duggan notes that while Slayton has expressed frustration about his current contract status, the pass-catcher is expected to open the 2024 campaign as New York's No. 2 receiver behind Nabers. Such an alignment would push Jalin Hyatt into the No. 3 role, at least to start the year. Isaiah Hodgins, Isaiah McKenzie, and Gunner Olszewski would round out the depth chart. With uncertainty at quarterback and increased competition in the passing game, Slayton isn't a very enticing name for the 2024 fantasy football season. In all likelihood, he'll open the year on the fringe of rosters and waiver wires in most 12-team redraft formats.

From RotoBaller

Jalin Hyatt May 2 12:00am ET
Jalin Hyatt

New York Giants wide receiver Jalin Hyatt has likely dropped to No. 3 on the depth chart after the team spent a first-round pick on Malik Nabers, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. Duggan notes that Nabers already has the inside path to being New York's No. 1 receiver and Darius Slayton will likely start opposite him. With that said, there could be an opportunity for Hyatt to surpass Slayton on the depth chart. "The plan should be for Hyatt to take on a bigger role this season and eventually replace Slayton," writes Duggan. Such a plan would put Hyatt on the radar in deeper dynasty leagues, but he can be avoided in most redraft formats.

From RotoBaller

DaRon Bland May 1 10:30pm ET
DaRon Bland

The Dallas Cowboys expect cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee) to be ready for the start of training camp this summer after he tore the ACL in his left knee during a Sept. 21 practice. He had surgery at the end of October. Fellow cornerback DaRon Bland, who set an NFL record with five interceptions returned for touchdowns last year, is expecting his teammate Diggs to make a full recovery. "I mean, a lot of people are not expecting what Tre is gonna come back with," Bland said. I know what Tre is gonna come back with. It's going to be something dangerous. Can't wait." The 25-year-old former second-round pick in 2020 out of Alabama as an All-Pro in both 2021 and 2022 and racked up 14 touchdowns (two returned for touchdowns). Providing he's fully healthy this fall, he should once again be a coveted defensive back in IDP fantasy formats because of his ball-hawking abilities.

From RotoBaller

Jalen McMillan May 1 9:40pm ET
Jalen McMillan

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Trey Palmer had a good rookie season in 2023 considering his draft status and with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in front of him, but he has far from secured the No. 3 spot in an offensive system that is sure to be 11-personnel heavy in his second season. However, Palmer should be a lock for the active roster out of training camp, as should rookie Jalen McMillan, who the Buccaneers spent a Day 2 pick on in a deep receiver class. Palmer and McMillan are expected to battle for the No. 3 job in training camp this summer. With Godwin expected to move back into the slot in 2024, Palmer may struggle to match his rookie numbers (39 catches, 385 yards, three touchdowns), especially if McMillan impresses.

From RotoBaller

Ben Sinnott May 1 9:30pm ET
Ben Sinnott

Washington Commanders rookie tight end Ben Sinnott was taken with the No. 53 overall pick in the third round of this year's draft out of Kansas State, and he will have an opportunity for playing time right away despite the presence of Zach Ertz, John Bates, Cole Turner and Armani Rogers on the roster. He brings receiving prowess and height (6-foot-3, 250 pounds) to an offense that could use a bit of both to help rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was taken second overall. The athletic tight end's unique versatility means he could carve out a role in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's attack in 2024. Sinnott had 676 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 49 catches in 2023. Still, Ertz is likely to open the year as Washington's primary pass-catching tight end, with Bates being a steady blocker. Sinnott could leapfrog Turner and Rogers with a strong training camp, but he's unlikely to be an immediate fantasy asset in single-year leagues.

From RotoBaller

Daniel Jones May 1 9:20pm ET
Daniel Jones

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (knee) said he's been cutting and "doing everything" as he rehabs from a torn right ACL. His plan remains to be ready for training camp this summer. In addition to a torn ACL, Jones missed time with a neck injury and ended up starting just six games after having a career year in 2022. In his six starts, Jones didn't have much of a chance behind a sieve-like offensive line, throwing for 909 yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions. The 2024 season could be a make-or-break year for the 26-year-old former first-round pick, although the G-Men didn't take another QB in this year's draft. Jones now has an elite wideout to work with in Malik Nabers, but he also lost do-it-all running back Saquon Barkley to free agency. Jones is an injury question mark with a low floor and ceiling as a QB2 in fantasy.

From RotoBaller

Malik Nabers May 1 9:10pm ET
Malik Nabers

New York Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who was taken with the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft, is expected to be the team's No. 1 receiver immediately in his first year in the league. Despite his contract unrest, Darius Slayton is still the most established receiver on the roster, so he figures to maintain a significant role in the final year of his deal in 2024. Meanwhile, The Athletic's Dan Duggan writes that the plan should be for Jalin Hyatt to take on a bigger role this year and eventually replace Slayton. Isaiah Hodgins will provide solid depth, while Isaiah McKenzie and Gunner Olszewski figure to battle for a return job on special teams. Nabers, 20, was extremely productive at LSU, but there's an argument that he's downgrading at quarterback from Jayden Daniels to Daniel Jones (knee), which will make him a volatile gamble in single-year fantasy leagues in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Trey Lance May 1 9:00pm ET
Trey Lance

The Dallas Cowboys will decline to pick up the fifth-year option on quarterback Trey Lance, according to a source. The move isn't a surprise at all after the decision was essentially made last August when Dallas acquired him from the San Francisco 49ers for a 2024 fourth-round pick. Lance's 2025 option would have cost the Cowboys a fully guaranteed $22.4 million. The Cowboys don't have a QB on their roster signed beyond the 2024 season, with Dak Prescott, Lance and Cooper Rush all set for unrestricted free agency next March. They cannot use the franchise tag on Prescott and haven't started serious talks on an extension. Lance will make $5.31 million in base salary in 2024 as part of the fully guaranteed, $34.1 million deal he signed with the Niners as the third overall pick in 2021. Dallas liked the progress Lance made in 2023, but he was inactive for every game.

From RotoBaller