Lineup Prep: Divisional Round
Wed Jan 17 9:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
LaPorta is getting healthier
Here is to hoping that the playoff games are better this weekend. For the most part, the games last week just weren’t very good unless you were a fans of those teams. I’m hoping for some barn burners this week, going down to the last drive. It will make for a lot better viewing.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I like a snow/cold game as much as anyone, but it does kind of stink for the teams involved when playing in the playoffs. You play all season in pretty normal conditions, but have to deal with brutal conditions when the playoffs hit. Again, I love to watch a snow game, but it probably would be better for the playoffs if teams didn’t have to deal with the awful winter weather. Oh well.
The Josh Allen experience is truly wild. He can drive you crazy with the turnovers and mistakes, but when he is playing well, Allen is really the best in the game. He showed that last week. Allen is just so tough defend, especially when he is running the ball more. The Bills kind of took that out of the game plan early in the season, but brought it back more after changing offensive coordinators. The change in philosophy has been a huge spark to the Bills offense.
I’m really excited about Jameson Williams next season. The Lions are starting to use him a lot more in normal routes than just as a deep threat. He is showing his ability as a route runner lately. Williams has a chance for a breakout season as long as he is healthy and playing. The big issue for Williams to start his career is just staying on the field. The ability is there for huge things. I’m ready to see what he can do next year.
It will be interesting to see what the Vikings do with their quarterback position this offseason. I almost think Kirk Cousins will be back and the team will draft a quarterback to learn from him. That might make the most sense and keep star receiver Justin Jefferson happy. This is one situation I’m going to keep a really close eye on this offseason because it has a lot of fantasy implications.
If I’m the Bears, I’m trading that No. 1 overall pick and loading up on more draft picks to surround Justin Fields with better talent. I know Caleb Williams is a stud and could be a fantastic pro, but Fields is no slouch. He made strides this year, especially late in the season. I think the franchise would do better to take advantage of the hype surround Williams and get a huge haul in a trade.
I don’t see Bill Belichick going to a team that doesn’t already have a franchise quarterback. You hear him interviewing with Atlanta, but that situation just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. I think he is going to go to a team that already has a top quarterback, so he doesn’t have to deal with the issues he had with the Patriots after losing Tom Brady.
And speaking of coaches, you have to wonder what is going to happen in Dallas after their stunning early-round exit in the playoffs. Mike McCarthy has been great during the regular season, but owner Jerry Jones doesn’t care about regular season wins. Jones wants Super Bowl titles. I would not be surprised if McCarthy is relieved of his job in the coming days.
I really thought the Browns operated better with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback this season than Deshaun Watson. Flacco gave that passing game a spark and it produced huge numbers on a weekly basis. You have to think the Browns are really regretting going all in on Watson as their franchise quarterback. He certainly has not played near his past levels. The Browns really overpaid for Watson and could be feeling it for years to come.
News and Notes: The Bills released running back Leonard Fournette from the practice squad on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions. LaPorta was able to play last week and didn’t look quite 100 percent, but still found the end zone. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games and scores two straight. He should be even healthier this week, meaning his production could be even better. Plus, he has a great matchup against a bad Bucs pass defense. The Bucs allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers. McCaffrey is always a must start and hot play, but especially this week. He gets a Packers defense that is the worst out of all the remaining playoff teams against the run. Green Bay was 28th against the run in the regular season and allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. Green Bay allowed 200-plus rushing yards four times this season. We think McCaffrey is going to have a monster showing in this one, possibly pushing 200-plus total yards and 30 fantasy points.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers had a breakout season as the top target at receiver the Ravens. He played really well late in the season, having 20-plus fantasy points three of five games. He has scores four of five games. Flowers keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. Look for more success this week against the Texans in what should be a high-scoring game. The Texans have allowed 265-plus passing yards three of six games.
COLD PLAYS
Devin Singletary, RB, Texans. Singletary had a solid season, emerging as the starter for the Texans. He has scores two straight games and has been consistent for the Texans, especially the second half of the season. Singletary has a really tough matchup to keep up his solid play this week, though, playing the Ravens. Baltimore was 14th against the run during the regular season, allowing 109.4-rushing yards per game. Houston might need to rely on C.J. Stroud and the passing game moire than Singletary if they hope to have much offensive success.
David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery found the end zone again last week, giving him four straight games with a touchdown. He still hasn’t topped 65-rushing yards in any of those games and has just three catches during that stretch. He might be a scary play this week against a Bucs defense that allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season. The Bucs allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and were fifth overall against the run.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It is so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but his numbers down the stretch haven’t been great for fantasy owners. He has just one touchdown each of his last three games. He has been pretty mediocre for fantasy teams. It might be more of the same this week against the Bills on the road. Buffalo has really played better defense down the stretch and allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season.
SLEEPERS
Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield had a great opener in the playoffs, hitting the 300-yard mark while scoring three touchdowns. Mayfield has multiple touchdowns five of six games. He has three three-touchdown games during that stretch. He has a great matchup against the Lions, a team that allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season. Look for Mayfield to keep it going this week.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Packers. Wicks scored another touchdown last week, giving him scores three straight games. He keeps finding the end zone, making him a top red-zone target for the Packers. He could score again this week in a game the Packers are likely throwing often and playing from behind. This could lead to even more targets for Wicks. He could be a sneaky play for fantasy owners.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir scored his third touchdown of the season last week. He has 12-plus fantasy points two straight games. He has at least three catches four consecutive games. Shakir is getting more work with Gabe Davis out and playing well in an expanded role. Shakir has a chance for another solid game this week in what should be a high-scoring game with the Chiefs.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Packers/49ers, Bucs/Lions.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Since the Indianapolis Colts didn't address the departure of Zack Moss by taking a running back in this year's NFL draft, the team seems content with Trey Sermon, Evan Hull and Tyler Goodson fighting it out for the backup running back job behind starter Jonathan Taylor in training camp this summer. Of course, the Colts could also add a free agent at the position like Kareem Hunt, but as of right now, Sermon could be poised to be the team's No. 2. Seventeen of Sermon's 35 carries for the Colts last year came in Week 15. In total, the former third-rounder of the San Francisco 49ers in 2021 out of Ohio State had 160 rushing yards and no touchdowns while adding three catches for 13 yards. If Taylor misses time due to an injury again in 2024, the Colts will likely use a committee approach in the backfield.
From RotoBaller
The Kansas City Chiefs and All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce agreed to terms on Monday on an undisclosed two-year contract extension to make him the league's highest-paid tight end, according to sources. The deal was completed by his long-time agent, Mike Simon. Still one of the best tight ends in football at age 34, the former third-round pick in 2013 out of Cincinnati has been a Pro Bowler in each of the last nine seasons and finished the 2023 regular season with 93 catches (121 targets) for 984 yards and five touchdowns in 15 starts. The four-time All-Pro selection is still a high-end TE1 for fantasy purposes coming off back-to-back Super Bowl championships, but he's also much more of an injury risk than he's ever been.
From RotoBaller
After the addition of rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell in the second round of this year's NFL draft, Indianapolis Colts wideout Alec Pierce will compete with Mitchell on the outside for the No. 3 role this season. Michael Pittman Jr, who signed a three-year, $70 million contract extension this offseason, will continue to see the lion's share of the targets, with Josh Downs manning the slot as the No. 2 option. The 23-year-old Pierce only had 32 catches for 514 yards and two touchdowns last year and will now be battling a much more dynamic pass-catcher for a role in the Colts' offense in 2024. Not only is Mitchell a superior athlete, but his production (55 catches for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2023) speaks for itself.
From RotoBaller
Standout defensive tackle Christian Barmore and the New England Patriots reached an agreement on a four-year contract extension with a maximum value of $92 million on Monday. The deal was negotiated and confirmed by agent Nicole Lynn of Klutch Sports. The deal contains $41.8 million in guarantees in the largest deal that the Patriots have given out since Tom Brady. The 24-year-old former second-rounder in 2021 out of Alabama earned the big extension by recording 133 tackles (74 solo), 12.5 sacks, 18 tackles for loss, 32 QB hits, nine passes defended and one forced fumble in 44 games (11 starts) in his first three years in the NFL. He had a career-high 8.5 sacks in 17 games (six starts) last year and will stick around in New England as a key piece on the interior of their defensive line for years to come.
From RotoBaller
Five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Jarvis Landry is expected to take part in the Jacksonville Jaguars' upcoming rookie camp, according to his agents. Landry sat out of the 2023 season and is fully healthy and ready to return at age 31 in 2024. The Jaguars added rookie Brian Thomas in the first round of this year's NFL draft and also signed Gabe Davis in free agency to help them account for the loss of Calvin Ridley. Jacksonville also has Christian Kirk returning from injury and Zay Jones, so even if Landry were to sign with the team, he'd be fighting an uphill battle for significant playing time in 2024. In nine games with the New Orleans Saints in 2022, Landry caught 25 of his 39 targets for 272 yards and one touchdown. If anything, he'd serve as receiver depth in the slot for Jacksonville.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Cowboys have signed running back Ezekiel Elliott to a one-year deal. Dynasty Analysis: Elliott spent his first seven seasons with the Cowboys before a rather unimpressive 2023 campaign with New England. He'll likely compete with Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman to form some kind of committee that could be effective in reality but a mess in fantasy. Elliott simply isn't the same player he once was and while this move makes him roster-worthy again, expectations should be realistic.
The Dallas Cowboys are bringing back former Pro Bowl running back Ezekiel Elliott, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. This has been a developing story in recent weeks, and after Dallas did not pick a running back in the 2024 NFL Draft, their former first-round pick is back with America's Team. In seven seasons with Dallas, Elliott rushed 1,881 times for 8,262 yards and 68 touchdowns. The team let him walk last offseason and elevated Tony Pollard to the RB1 role, but Pollard was underwhelming and left for the Tennessee Titans during free agency this year. Although Zeke averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry last season, he could have RB2 value back in Dallas in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Assuming the Cowboys don't add more legitimate competition to the backfield, he should start, and Rico Dowdle should be viewed as a high-end fantasy handcuff in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Buffalo Bills have signed UDFA running back Frank Gore Jr. Dynasty Analysis: Gore fell out of the 2024 NFL Draft but landed on his feet with the Buffalo Bills quickly after. He'll likely compete with Ty Johnson, Darrynton Evans and a few other runners for a spot behind James Cook and presumptive RB2 Ray Davis. Still, the draft capitlal just isn't there to keep him as anything more than a watch list candidate at the moment.
Dynasty | Adding speed on the perimeter with the addition of WR Tez Walker should soften coverage for Flowers. Dynasty Analysis: On paper, Rashod Bateman is the winner of the Baltimore Ravens' draft as they still haven't searched for his replacement. But the bigger development is the field-stretching abilities of fourth round pick Tez Walker, which would give everyone in the offense some additional breathing room. Top wide receiver Zay Flowers gets the largest increase in high quality targets, which could elevate him from his WR21 DLF ranking into the high end WR2 range... if all goes to plan.
Free-agent WR Jarvis Landry (Browns) is expected to work out at the Jacksonville Jaguars' rookie camp.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent RB Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots) agreed to a undisclosed deal with the Dallas Cowboys Monday, April 29.
Fantasy Spin: Zeke figures to get short-yardage and goal line work, pegging him as an RB3 in fantasy.
From TheHuddle
Dynasty | Johnny Wilson was drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles Dynasty Analysis: Wilson fell all the way down to the sixth round before being taken by the Eagles as the 27th receiver overall. It was a pretty disappointing result for Wilson, whose NFL Draft Combine performance proved to be disastrous. It's hard to say what his future will be but a move to tight end may be best for his career. Regardless, Wilson looks like a late-round dart throw who at least landed on a team known for being creative with players.
Dynasty | The Los Angeles Chargers drafted USC wide receiver Brenden Rice in the 7th round of the 2024 NFL Draft Dynasty Analysis: Rice dropped all the way down to the seventh round before being taken by the Los Angeles Chargers. It was a tough turn of events as he'll have an uphill climb for a roster spot. He's easy to root for as the son of Hall of Famer Jerry Rice but it's hard to see him making an impact in the NFL any time soon. Rice is a watch list candidate or late round dart throw in rookie drafts at the moment.
Dynasty | The Tennessee Titans signed undrafted Washington running back Dillon Johnson. Dynasty Analysis: The questions regarding Johnson's speed and athletic profile proved to be too significant for him to be drafted. Instead, he signed a free agent deal with the Tennessee Titans and will attempt the make the roster as a UDFA. Johnson likely chose a solid spot to attempt just that as the Titans aren't exactly stacked at running back. Still, the fact he dropped all the way out of the draft leaves him as a player to simply keep on watch lists.
Dynasty | The New England Patriots drafted Florida State tight end Jaheim Bell in the seventh round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bell was drafted by the Patriots all the way down in the seventh round. He was likely knocked by most scouts because of his size, so he'll need to prove he has the physicality to make it. Unfortunately, the odds are long for Bell as a late round pick so he'll need to make a splash quickly. Keep an eye on him this off-season.
Dynasty | The Green Bay Packers drafted Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt. Dynasty Analysis: Pratt was a hot name going into the draft but fell all the way down to final round before being taken by the Packers. WIth Jordan Love established as the starter, Pratt could challenge for the backup spot eventually. However, the drop in the 2024 NFL Draft leaves him as a little more than a late round flier or player to watch this Spring and Summer.
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver Tank Dell was treated and released with a minor gunshot wound Sunday. Dynasty Analysis: Dynasty managers likely lost their minds when they saw headlines today that said, "Tank Dell has been shot." In the end, Dell was one of up to ten people who were wounded after gunshots were fired at a social gathering. It's a scary situation but one that looks to be free of anything worse. Dell is on his way back from a nasty leg injury from last year and remains a high upside player - this certainly won't change that.
The Washington Commanders have signed undrafted running back MIchael Wiley. The Arizona product has put together a fairly strong college career. He has nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 28 touchdowns during his time at Arizona. He's not exactly a workhorse back with only one season with 100-plus rushing attempts. Despite that, Wiley can still make an impact at the pro level. He'll have an uphill battle during camp, but the Commanders don't have many of reliable backs.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders have signed quarterback Sam Hartman on Sunday. The Notre Dame signal-caller went undrafted during this weekend's NFL draft. There were rumors of Hartman going to the Chicago Bears, but instead Hartman will head to Washington. The six-year prospect finished his college career with Notre Dame after playing mostly at Wake Forest. Hartman threw for 2,689 passing yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions during his last year in college. He should get a legitimate chance to compete for the backup gig with veteran Marcus Mariota in camp. It seems likely that Jaylen Daniels has the starting quarterback gig locked up heading into camp.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (leg) suffered a gunshot wound on Sunday morning after a 16-year-old suspect opened fire during a physical altercation at a private event in Sanford, Florida. Dell, who was at the event but not involved, suffered a "minor wound," with the team reporting the wideout is in "good spirits" and has been released from the hospital. Others were injured during the incident. Fortunately, no one suffered life-threatening injuries. As far as the gunman, he was arrested and charged with several crimes, including attempted homicide, before being transported to a juvenile detention facility. The 24-year-old is currently working his way back from a broken leg suffered at the end of last season and should remain on schedule to return for the 2024-25 campaign, barring any setbacks related to the incident.
From RotoBaller
