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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Running Back Deep Dive 

Tue Aug 9 2:26pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Taylor carries less risk this year


Running back is the toughest position to select come draft day. It is an unpredictable position that seems to vary from season to season. There are plenty of factors that go into this, so we thought it might be a good idea to delve deeper into the subject. We decided to look at age and wear and tear of the top rated backs from past seasons to help figure out the best running backs to take come draft day. We took a look at the top 10 fantasy running backs from the last five seasons, going over age, seasons played to date, and whether they were rookies or not. 

  2021 AGE EXP      2020 AGE  EXP 
1. J. Taylor  22  1   1. A. Kamara    25  3 
2. A. Ekeler  26  4   2. D. Cook  25 3
3. N. Harris ®  23  0   3. D. Henry  26 4
4. J. Mixon  25  4   4. D. Montgomery  23  1 
5. J. Conner  26  4   5. A. Jones  26  3 
6. L. Fournette  26  4   6. J. Taylor ®  21 0
7. E. Elliott  26  5   7. J. Robinson ®  22  0 
8. A. Kamara  26  4   8. J. Jacobs  22  1 
9. C. Patterson  30  8   9. E. Elliott  25  4 
10. A. Gibson  23  1   10. K. Hunt  25  3 
                 
  2019 AGE EXP     2018 AGE EXP
1. C. McCaffrey   23   2   1. S. Barkley ®   21   0 
2. D. Henry  25  3   2. C. McCaffrey  22  1
3. A. Jones  25  2   3. T. Gurley  24  3
4. E. Elliott  24  3   4. A. Kamara  23  1
5. D. Cook  24  2   5. E. Elliott    23  2
6. N. Chubb  24  1   6. J. Conner  23  1
7. A. Ekeler  24  2   7. J . White  26  4
8. M. Ingram  30  8   8. M. Gordon  25  3
9. C. Carson  25  2   9. D. Johnson    27  3
10. S. Barkley  22  1   10. J. Mixon  22  1
                 
  2017 AGE EXP          
1. T. Gurley  23  2           
2. L. Bell  25  4          
3. A. Kamara ®  22  0          
4. K. Hunt ®  22  0          
5. M. Gordon  24  2          
6. M. Ingram  28  6          
7. L. McCoy  29  8          
8. C. Hyde  27  3          
9. L. Fournette ®  22  0          
10. C. McCaffrey ®  21  0          


Here are the big takeaways from the data. First off, the average age of the top 10 fantasy backs from the past five seasons was 24.26. That is quite young, showing that this position can age out in a hurry. And many of the top backs in the game are just a season or two into their careers. The running back spot is a young man’s game. 

During the last two seasons, just one back over the age of 27 made the list. And there are just six backs total in five seasons that are 27 years old or older (12 percent). Again, the data overwhelmingly shows that younger backs have the best chance to produce big for fantasy owners. 

The average number of seasons played for these players also is just 2.54. So you are looking at players in their second and third seasons most likely finishing as a top 10 fantasy back. These backs are relatively new to the league and making a big splash in a hurry.

Rookies also have a history of making an impact. There has been at least one rookie four of the last five seasons to finish in the top 10. There are eight total rookies that have finished in the top 10 the last five years (16%). So there is a pretty good chance a rookie back makes the list once again this year. Young backs can make a splash in a hurry. Just look at 2017 when four rookies were top 10 fantasy backs. 

Now that we have all this data, let’s put it to good use and apply it to this year. Below is a list of the top 20 fantasy backs according to the latest ADP. The list includes age and seasons played in the NFL. 

  2022 RB ADP AGE EXP
1. J. Taylor  23  2
2. C. McCaffrey    26  5
3. A. Ekeler  27  5
4. N. Harris  24  1
5. D. Cook  27  5
6. D. Henry  28  6
7. D. Swift  23  2
8. J. Mixon    26  5
9. J. Williams  22  1
10. N. Chubb  26  4
11. S. Barkley  25  4
12. L. Fournette  27  5
13. A. Jones  27  5
14. E. Elliott  27  6
15. J. Conner  27  5
16. C. Akers  23  2
17. D. Montgomery  25  3
18. T. Etienne  23  1
19. J. Jacobs  24  3
20. B. Hall  21  0


After seeing the list, there are 10 players (highlighted above) that make the cut as players around 24.26 years old and playing around 2.54 seasons. Remember, those are the benchmark numbers for top 10 fantasy backs the last five seasons. The highlighted players might be good targets for fantasy teams. Just something to keep in mind come draft day. If you have to pick between a guy like James Conner or Travis Etienne, maybe this data will push you towards Etienne, a guy many are high on and think could have a breakout season. Go younger, right?

Also, Breece Hall is the only rookie in the top 20 ADP for running backs. If history is correct, there is a decent chance Hall or another rookie back finishes above that ADP, cracking the top 10. Hall is another player you might want to think about grabbing come draft day. 

In closing, it seems the backs that carry the least risk are young backs with just a few seasons under their belt. The numbers don’t lie. This might not be new news to a lot of you, but for some, it might be a little eye opening, seeing how quickly backs fade in this league.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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2024 NFL Draft Recap

Player Notes
MarShawn Lloyd May 14 5:00pm ET
MarShawn Lloyd

Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd signed his rookie deal, the organization announced on Tuesday. Lloyd, who was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, is expected to see a role in Year 1 behind Josh Jacobs in the emerging Packers' offense. Although the 23-year-old didn't have the most productive career at South Carolina and Southern California, he flashed explosiveness in 2023 with 7.1 yards per carry and 17.8 yards per reception. His 4.46 forty-yard-dash time at 220 pounds likely cemented himself as a Day 2 draft choice, and running backs taken before Round 4 are usually given a fair shot at competing for touches. He should beat out AJ Dillon at some point in 2024, making him a high-end handcuff RB for redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Khyree Jackson May 14 4:50pm ET
Khyree Jackson

The Minnesota Vikings released veteran cornerback Joejuan Williams on Tuesday, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. The former Vanderbilt Commodore was a second-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2019 but has not found his footing in the NFL. Across 42 games with the Patriots, Vikings, and Bears, Williams has collected 46 tackles (32 solo), 10 pass deflections, and no interceptions. The 26-year-old signed a reserve/future contract on January 8 with the Vikings, but he is being let go after the team selected Oregon cornerback Khyree Jackson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

From RotoBaller

Erick All May 14 4:30pm ET
Erick All

The Cincinnati Bengals signed rookie third-round wide receiver Jermaine Burton and rookie fourth-round tight end Erick All to their rookie deals on Tuesday. With Joe Burrow at quarterback and Tee Higgins potentially playing his last season with the Bengals in 2024, both first-year pass-catchers are on the fantasy football radar in redraft and dynasty leagues. In Burton's final two collegiate seasons at Alabama, he caught 79 passes for 1,475 yards and 15 touchdowns. With 4.45 speed, he could act as a field stretcher and start in three-wide sets right away in Zac Taylor's offense. All, who caught 21 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns in Iowa's lifeless offense last year, will look to push Mike Gesicki for the TE1 job in his rookie campaign.

From RotoBaller

Jake Fromm May 14 4:20pm ET
Jake Fromm

The Washington Commanders released quarterback Jake Fromm on Tuesday, according to NFL.com. The former Georgia Bulldog was a fifth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills and spent the last two seasons with Washington after a brief stint with the New York Giants. Despite being in the league for four seasons, he has thrown just 60 passes, completing 27 of them for 210 yards and one touchdown to go along with three interceptions. The Commanders signed Marcus Mariota this offseason and added rookies Jayden Daniels and Sam Hartman to their quarterback room, so Fromm became expendable. The 25-year-old is unlikely to earn playing time anytime soon barring a slew of injuries around the NFL.

From RotoBaller

Grady Jarrett May 14 4:20pm ET
Grady Jarrett

Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) is not practicing on Tuesday, according to head coach Raheem Morris. The two-time Pro Bowl selection and one-time All-Pro suffered a torn ACL in the Week 8 loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, so he'll likely be eased into action this offseason and beyond. Jarrett has compiled three seasons of at least six sacks, but he only charted 1.5 sacks in eight games last season. Atlanta's pass rush has been an issue over the last few years, and the organization opted to draft quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick instead of a defender, so Jarrett's early-season availability and effectiveness will be key as the Falcons look to contend for a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins under center.

From RotoBaller

Matthew Stafford May 14 3:13pm ET
Matthew Stafford

Dynasty | Jared Goff and the Lions have agreed on a four-year contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: A relative afterthought in the Matthew Stafford trade from years ago, Goff has had a career resurgence with the Lions. He'll get $170 million guaranteed and makes him the highest paid player in franchise history. Goff is coming off a season with more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, making him a reliable low-end QB1. While he offers little as a runner, Goff is about as stable as they come and makes for a solid veteran add for a dynasty team as a low-end starter or very solid QB2.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Curtis Samuel May 14 3:13pm ET
Curtis Samuel

Dynasty | The Bills have signed free agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Dynasty Analysis: The Bills look like they're going to attack the post-Stefon Diggs era with a "WR by committee" approach that could feature the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool and now MVS. While Coleman remains the only blue chip player on that list, someone else is likely to emerge. Valdes-Scantling is likely no more than a roster clogger-level player moving forward but this development is enough to keep him on the dynasty radar.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Trey Hendrickson May 14 3:00pm ET
Trey Hendrickson

Despite requesting a trade this offseason, Cincinnati Bengals star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson confirmed his desire to play for the team in 2024 after Tuesday's offseason workout. "That's a no-brainer," Hendrickson said. "I mean, I love this team. I'm in great shape. It's good to see the guys." The three-time Pro Bowler rejoined the team this week for the voluntary offseason workout program. The 29-year-old was second in the NFL in sacks in 2023 with 17.5 and initially asked to be traded when the Bengals didn't reward him with a long-term contract extension. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson has been one of the league's best edge rushers since he was signed by Cincy in 2021 on a four-year deal worth $60 million. He has 40.5 total sacks in that time, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.

From RotoBaller

Patrick Mahomes May 14 2:50pm ET
Patrick Mahomes

The back-to-back Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs will begin their attempt for the first-ever three-peat in 2024 when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the league's annual prime-time season opener, which will be played on Thursday, Sept. 5. It will be a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Chiefs won 17-10 before beating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. The Chiefs will then face the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead in Week 2. The Week 1 matchup against Baltimore features two of the game's top QBs in Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP the last two years, and Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP. Mahomes has gone 4-1 in the matchup against Jackson, including in the playoffs. KC has opened as a 2.5-point favorite and are 2-1 in the NFL kickoff game since it was introduced in 2002.

From RotoBaller

Bijan Robinson May 14 2:10pm ET
Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson (ankle) and Jase McClellan (foot) were not at practice on Tuesday at organized team activities. It's notable, but shouldn't affect Robinson's 2024 fantasy draft stock. The 22-year-old former first-rounder is expected to be back on the field for the team's mandatory minicamp. As long as Robinson's ankle isn't bothering him once he returns to practice, it should be a non-factor by the time the 2024 regular season begins. Now that quarterback Kirk Cousins is in town, Robinson will be even more attractive as a high-end RB1 in fantasy. The former eighth overall pick in 2023 out of Texas is a do-it-all back that had 976 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 214 rushing attempts in his rookie season, adding 58 receptions for 487 yards and another four TDs in 17 games (16 starts) in 2023.

From RotoBaller

Marquez Valdes-Scantling May 14 10:20am ET
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

The Buffalo Bills signed veteran wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a one-year deal worth up to $4.5 million on Tuesday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. MVS is no stranger to playing with elite quarterbacks between his time with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, and he'll now be in line to catch passes from Josh Allen in Buffalo. The 2018 fifth-round pick out of South Florida has not posted monster fantasy football numbers, but he has spike-week upside thanks to his field-stretching speed. That said, he's likely going to be more useful in "real life" compared to fantasy football based on his production profile thus far. In six NFL seasons, the 29-year-old has not eclipsed 690 yards or six touchdowns in a single season. Last year, he caught just 21 passes for 315 yards and one touchdown in 16 games. He's an interesting late-round flyer in best ball formats, but he might be a wasted roster spot in traditional leagues. MVS will compete with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel for snaps in 2024, as second-round rookie Keon Coleman should be a locked-in starter.

From RotoBaller

Phillip Dorsett May 14 12:20am ET
Phillip Dorsett

The Denver Broncos signed free-agent wide receiver Phillip Dorsett and cornerback Quinton Newsome to undisclosed deals on Monday, according to the team. In corresponding moves, the Broncos waived punter Nik Constantinou and receiver Lincoln Victor. Dorsett was released by Denver last Friday after initially signing with the team's practice squad before the 2023 season. The 31-year-old former 29th overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts in 2015 out of Miami was elevated just twice during the regular season last year and was unable to reel in any of his three targets. In his eight NFL seasons, Dorsett has a total of 151 catches for 2,001 yards and 12 touchdowns in 94 games (20 starts). He'll serve as receiver depth for the Broncos this summer behind Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Marvin Mims Jr., rookie Troy Franklin and Tim Patrick.

From RotoBaller

Marquez Valdes-Scantling May 13 10:30pm ET
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, free-agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling made a stop in Buffalo on Monday night. The wideout had a recent visit with the Chargers, although it appears nothing came of it. MVS hasn't been productive in years, and he finished the 2023-24 campaign by recording career lows in catches (21), receiving yards (315), and touchdowns (one). However, the Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs this offseason, so Valdes-Scantling could work his way up the depth chart. Yet, he'll need to prove his value to fantasy managers no matter where he signs, which won't come until he has at least a few decent performances.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff May 13 10:13pm ET
Jared Goff

Updating a previous report, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff's four-year deal includes an option in the fourth year, per source on Monday, May 13.

From TheHuddle

Marquez Valdes-Scantling May 13 8:03pm ET
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Free-agent WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chiefs) is meeting with the Buffalo Bills Monday, May 13, according to a source.

From TheHuddle

Courtland Sutton May 13 7:30pm ET
Courtland Sutton

The Denver Broncos continued voluntary offseason workouts on Monday. However, the team remains without wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who continues to work out at his residence in Florida. The veteran has two years left on a four-year, $60 million extension, but has made it clear he wants a raise. He also requested a trade, although the team is apparently not looking to move him. Of course, there will be updates on the situation moving ahead. Yet, it won't be as much of a concern until the summer when Denver begins training camp. With that said, several teams will monitor things, especially with Sutton coming off a massive year, which included a career-high 10 touchdowns. But if he stays with the Broncos, his fantasy outlook is directly related to how Bo Nix and Zach Wilson look heading into the 2024-25 campaign.

From RotoBaller

Phillip Dorsett May 13 5:53pm ET
Phillip Dorsett

Free-agent WR Phillip Dorsett (Broncos) signed with the Denver Broncos Monday, May 13. The team also signed undrafted free-agent CB Quinton Newsome (Nebraska). Terms of the contracts were not disclosed.

From TheHuddle

Jared Goff May 13 5:00pm ET
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff agreed to a four-year $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. Lions general manager Brad Holmes said the two sides were working on an extension last week, and they evidently worked quickly and got the deal done. The 2016 No. 1 overall pick by the Los Angeles Rams has been fantastic since being dealt to Detroit along with draft picks for Matthew Stafford. He led Detroit to a playoff win for the first time since 1991 last year, and he's posted 12,258 yards, 78 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions through his first 48 games with the organization. He's now under contract through the 2028 season and will remain a fringe QB1 option in fantasy football as long as his offensive weapons remain on the roster. Given his job security and upside in Detroit's offense, he should be viewed as a strong dynasty QB2 in Superflex formats.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff May 13 4:53pm ET
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff agreed to terms on a four-year contract extension with the Lions Monday, May 13, worth $212 million, according to sources. The deal includes $170 million in guaranteed money.

Fantasy Spin: Goff will be the starting quarterback for the Lions for the foreseeable future and is coming off a terrific 2023 season. He could be a possible low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback in deeper leagues but probably will be a No. 2 quarterback in most standard leagues that can also be a starting option against favorable matchups.

From TheHuddle

Trey Hendrickson May 13 4:50pm ET
Trey Hendrickson

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson was spotted at voluntary offseason activities on Monday despite his recent request to be traded. It's a notable development considering the practices and workouts are entirely voluntary, but it's too early to assume it means he wants to remain with the team if he does not receive a new contract. The 2017 third-round pick by the New Orleans Saints had a monster season in 2023, racking up a Bengals' franchise record 17.5 sacks. He is the 11th-highest-paid edge rusher (average salary) and is entering the final year of his four-year, $60 million contract he signed as a free agent in 2021. The 29-year-old's situation will be worth monitoring this offseason, as there will likely be no shortage of interested suitors if the team is willing to listen to offers. With quarterback Joe Burrow already signed to a $275 million contract, and wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins seeking a new deals, Hendrickson may be expendable.

From RotoBaller