Lineup Prep: Divisional Round
Wed Jan 17 9:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
LaPorta is getting healthier
Here is to hoping that the playoff games are better this weekend. For the most part, the games last week just weren’t very good unless you were a fans of those teams. I’m hoping for some barn burners this week, going down to the last drive. It will make for a lot better viewing.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I like a snow/cold game as much as anyone, but it does kind of stink for the teams involved when playing in the playoffs. You play all season in pretty normal conditions, but have to deal with brutal conditions when the playoffs hit. Again, I love to watch a snow game, but it probably would be better for the playoffs if teams didn’t have to deal with the awful winter weather. Oh well.
The Josh Allen experience is truly wild. He can drive you crazy with the turnovers and mistakes, but when he is playing well, Allen is really the best in the game. He showed that last week. Allen is just so tough defend, especially when he is running the ball more. The Bills kind of took that out of the game plan early in the season, but brought it back more after changing offensive coordinators. The change in philosophy has been a huge spark to the Bills offense.
I’m really excited about Jameson Williams next season. The Lions are starting to use him a lot more in normal routes than just as a deep threat. He is showing his ability as a route runner lately. Williams has a chance for a breakout season as long as he is healthy and playing. The big issue for Williams to start his career is just staying on the field. The ability is there for huge things. I’m ready to see what he can do next year.
It will be interesting to see what the Vikings do with their quarterback position this offseason. I almost think Kirk Cousins will be back and the team will draft a quarterback to learn from him. That might make the most sense and keep star receiver Justin Jefferson happy. This is one situation I’m going to keep a really close eye on this offseason because it has a lot of fantasy implications.
If I’m the Bears, I’m trading that No. 1 overall pick and loading up on more draft picks to surround Justin Fields with better talent. I know Caleb Williams is a stud and could be a fantastic pro, but Fields is no slouch. He made strides this year, especially late in the season. I think the franchise would do better to take advantage of the hype surround Williams and get a huge haul in a trade.
I don’t see Bill Belichick going to a team that doesn’t already have a franchise quarterback. You hear him interviewing with Atlanta, but that situation just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. I think he is going to go to a team that already has a top quarterback, so he doesn’t have to deal with the issues he had with the Patriots after losing Tom Brady.
And speaking of coaches, you have to wonder what is going to happen in Dallas after their stunning early-round exit in the playoffs. Mike McCarthy has been great during the regular season, but owner Jerry Jones doesn’t care about regular season wins. Jones wants Super Bowl titles. I would not be surprised if McCarthy is relieved of his job in the coming days.
I really thought the Browns operated better with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback this season than Deshaun Watson. Flacco gave that passing game a spark and it produced huge numbers on a weekly basis. You have to think the Browns are really regretting going all in on Watson as their franchise quarterback. He certainly has not played near his past levels. The Browns really overpaid for Watson and could be feeling it for years to come.
News and Notes: The Bills released running back Leonard Fournette from the practice squad on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions. LaPorta was able to play last week and didn’t look quite 100 percent, but still found the end zone. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games and scores two straight. He should be even healthier this week, meaning his production could be even better. Plus, he has a great matchup against a bad Bucs pass defense. The Bucs allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers. McCaffrey is always a must start and hot play, but especially this week. He gets a Packers defense that is the worst out of all the remaining playoff teams against the run. Green Bay was 28th against the run in the regular season and allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. Green Bay allowed 200-plus rushing yards four times this season. We think McCaffrey is going to have a monster showing in this one, possibly pushing 200-plus total yards and 30 fantasy points.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers had a breakout season as the top target at receiver the Ravens. He played really well late in the season, having 20-plus fantasy points three of five games. He has scores four of five games. Flowers keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. Look for more success this week against the Texans in what should be a high-scoring game. The Texans have allowed 265-plus passing yards three of six games.
COLD PLAYS
Devin Singletary, RB, Texans. Singletary had a solid season, emerging as the starter for the Texans. He has scores two straight games and has been consistent for the Texans, especially the second half of the season. Singletary has a really tough matchup to keep up his solid play this week, though, playing the Ravens. Baltimore was 14th against the run during the regular season, allowing 109.4-rushing yards per game. Houston might need to rely on C.J. Stroud and the passing game moire than Singletary if they hope to have much offensive success.
David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery found the end zone again last week, giving him four straight games with a touchdown. He still hasn’t topped 65-rushing yards in any of those games and has just three catches during that stretch. He might be a scary play this week against a Bucs defense that allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season. The Bucs allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and were fifth overall against the run.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It is so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but his numbers down the stretch haven’t been great for fantasy owners. He has just one touchdown each of his last three games. He has been pretty mediocre for fantasy teams. It might be more of the same this week against the Bills on the road. Buffalo has really played better defense down the stretch and allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season.
SLEEPERS
Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield had a great opener in the playoffs, hitting the 300-yard mark while scoring three touchdowns. Mayfield has multiple touchdowns five of six games. He has three three-touchdown games during that stretch. He has a great matchup against the Lions, a team that allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season. Look for Mayfield to keep it going this week.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Packers. Wicks scored another touchdown last week, giving him scores three straight games. He keeps finding the end zone, making him a top red-zone target for the Packers. He could score again this week in a game the Packers are likely throwing often and playing from behind. This could lead to even more targets for Wicks. He could be a sneaky play for fantasy owners.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir scored his third touchdown of the season last week. He has 12-plus fantasy points two straight games. He has at least three catches four consecutive games. Shakir is getting more work with Gabe Davis out and playing well in an expanded role. Shakir has a chance for another solid game this week in what should be a high-scoring game with the Chiefs.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Packers/49ers, Bucs/Lions.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The Seattle Seahawks selected Michigan tight end AJ Barner with the No. 121 overall pick in the fourth round on Saturday in the 2024 NFL draft. Barner is a mountain of a man at 6-foot-6, but his lack of production in four seasons at Indiana and Michigan (64 catches, 610 yards, five touchdowns) leaves a lot to be desired as he moves to the next level. The 21-year-old also isn't extremely athletic, but he'll have some opportunity in Seattle to make a name for himself as he starts out behind Noah Fant and Pharaoh Brown on the tight end depth chart in his rookie season in 2024. Fantasy managers should only consider Barner as a developmental prospect in deep rookie-only drafts this fall.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins selected Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright to help beef up their RB room in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday at pick No. 120. Wright, who ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine, adds even more blazing speed to Miami's backfield alongside Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The 21-year-old isn't going to have much of a role in 2024 as long as both Mostert and Achane stay healthy, but it's a good long-term fit for those in dynasty/keeper leagues. Wright will see touches in his rookie season as the Dolphins look to manage the workloads of both Mostert and Achane, but it's not going to be enough to warrant attention in single-season leagues. He stands at 5-foot-11, 210 pounds.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals selected Iowa tight end Erick All with the No. 115 overall selection in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. All will join a tight end corps in Cincinnati that already includes newcomer Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample. All led Iowa in receiving yards (299) and touchdowns (three) last year despite missing half of the year due to a torn ACL. He also had spinal surgery in 2022, so there is a real injury concern with All at the next level. When he's healthy, though, he's an intriguing tight end prospect for a Bengals team that lacks any real big-name player at the position. Even if All is healthy in his rookie year in 2024, it's hard to envision him becoming a major player in an offense that already has plenty of mouths to feed.
From RotoBaller
The Baltimore Ravens selected North Carolina wide receiver Devontez Walker with the No. 113 overall pick on Saturday in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft. Walker was highly productive at Kent State before eventually transferring to play for the Tar Heels and with quarterback Drake Maye, who went third overall to the Patriots in the first round on Thursday. The 22-year-old ended up playing in only eight games in 2023, but he still led the team in touchdowns. His 4.36-second 40-yard dash speed will make him a threat deep down the field at the NFL level, although he's unlikely to make a big impact right away for a run-first Ravens team that already has receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman as their top two options, not to mention tight end Mark Andrews.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants selected Penn State tight end Theo Johnson with the No. 107 overall pick in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. This pick makes a lot of sense with the Giants still unsure if Darren Waller will hang up his cleats. The 23-year-old Johnson is extremely athletic with plenty of speed to spare despite standing at a monstrous 6-foot-6 and 259 pounds. In his final year with the Nittany Lions in 2023, he had seven touchdowns, although it came on just 34 receptions and 341 yards. Even if Waller decides to retire, Johnson may have an uphill battle to climb to reach any kind of fantasy relevance in single-year leagues with Daniel Bellinger still around. At best, he'll probably be a red-zone weapon for quarterback Daniel Jones.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots continue to try and beef up their receiving corps for new franchise quarterback Drake Maye, taking Central Florida wide receiver Javon Baker with the 110th overall pick in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. The Pats also added wideout Ja'Lynn Polk with the 34th overall pick early in the second round on Friday. Before starring at Central Florida, the 22-year-old spent two years trying to make a name for himself at Alabama before eventually transferring. He showed his big-play abilities when he finally got playing time at Central Florida, catching 108 passes for 1,936 yards and 12 touchdowns in the last two seasons. Baker will have to overcome his mediocre speed at the NFL level and will merely be a receiver project for a team looking for players to step up at the position.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers exercised the 2025 fifth-year option on left tackle Rashawn Slater on Saturday, according to a source. Slater and Joe Alt, the No. 5 overall pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night, will now bookend the team's offensive line for quarterback Justin Herbert going forward. This one comes as no surprise as new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman look to shore up the team's offensive line with a new emphasis on the ground game in 2024 and beyond. Slater graded out as Pro Football Focus' fourth-best pass-blocking offensive lineman on Herbert's blind side. The addition of Alt to the right side should only strengthen Herbert's protection while also being good news for LA's ground game.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers selected Texas tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders with the 101st overall pick to start the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft on Saturday. This appears to be a pretty good value pick as tight ends begin to come off the board in the fourth round. The 21-year-old Sanders was considered one of this year's best prospects at the position and will now join Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas at the tight end position in Carolina to give second-year quarterback Bryce Young some more help. Tremble and Thomas are more of the blocking variety, so Sanders could have an impact on offense in his rookie year in 2024 after posting the fourth-most receiving yards after the catch in college last year. Still, in an offense that looked awful in 2023, we'd be surprised if Sanders is on the fantasy radar in redraft leagues in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos traded up to the No. 102 spot with the Seattle Seahawks to select Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin in the fourth round of this year's draft. Franklin now reunites with his former quarterback, Bo Nix, who the Broncos selected on Thursday evening with the 12th overall pick. Franklin has elite speed and can easily create separation from the defense. The 21-year-old has excellent YAC ability and should be considered an explosive playmaker. Franklin totaled 1,383 receiving yards and 14 scores on 81 catches last year. Franklin joins a wide receiver room in Denver that finished towards the bottom in total receiving yards last season, which could open the door for him to contribute immediately in fantasy. He should slot behind veteran Courtland Sutton at the start of the season but could easily carve out a role, making him viable in redraft formats. Franklin should be a popular second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Tampa Bay Bucs drafted wide receiver Jalen McMillan with the 92nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: McMillan slipped all the way down to the late third round and that wasn't a huge shock based on the sheer number of wide receivers available this year. Tampa Bay is pretty set with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for the short-term but McMillan and Trey Palmer could be the future at some point. McMillan will compete for slot duties early on and looks like a mid-round pick with upside in rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders drafted Rice wide receiver Luke McCaffrey with the 100th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: McCaffrey will have a chance to carve out some playing time behind the likes of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson but has a tough hill to climb. The former quarterback (and very famous relative of other McCaffrey footballers) is a solid athlete but is still inexperienced at the position. Still, the draft capital is there and he should be a pretty solid dart throw in the middle rounds of rookie drafts this year.
Dynasty | The Panthers traded up in the second round to select Texas running back Jonathon Brooks. Dynasty Analysis: It's a good landing spot for Brooks, who looks like a player who has a skillset of a premier running back in the NFL. He'll need to get healthy and return from a late season ACL tear but the Panthers are likely playing the long game here. With Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders not doing much to impress, it's hard to see Brooks not grabbing the top spot on the depth chart as soon as his knee will cooperate. Dynasty managers are also going to need to exhibit some patience here with Brooks as well but he still looks like a late first round rookie pick.
Dynasty | With the early selection of RB Jonathon Brooks (in a trade up, no less), the Panthers seem to have consolidated their backfield. Dynasty Analysis: Both Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard will have a little more time in the sun as Brooks rehabs his torn ACL and gets back into playing shape. But make no mistake, the move to draft Brooks signals an intention in Carolina to feature him in the running game. Sanders will be in the most peril, considering his cap hit, but both backs could be cap casualties and, in the meantime, will serve as backups to Brooks once he is healthy.
Dynasty | The Colts drafted wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the 52nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Mitchell lasted a little longer than most expected but landed on his feet when he was taken by the Colts with the 52nd overall pick. He'll compete with players like Josh Downs and Alec Pierce for targets behind Michael Pittman. Ultimately, his dynasty value is going to hinge on the health and development of quarterback Anthony Richardson. His fall, along with some uncertainty about his place in the offense is likely going to push him down into round two of most rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The second round selection of WR Adonai Mitchell gives the Colts' franchise QB yet another explosive weapon. Dynasty Analysis: In a drastically shortened rookie campaign, Richardson gave dynasty players a tantalizing glimpse of his playmaking abilities. His obvious strength was in the running game, but after several injuries and an early end to his season, the goal will be to keep him in the pocket and help him get comfortable standing tall and throwing downfield. Adding Mitchell to an already stocked supporting cast of WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, as well as RB Jonathan Taylor, should give Richardson all the weaponry he needs to outperform his QB8 dynasty ranking and join the top three conversation.
Dynasty | Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott was taken in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Washington Commanders. Dynasty Analysis: Sinnott was surprisingly taken in the second round of the NFL Draft by the tight end-needy Washington Commanders. It's a surprising development as most thought Sinnott wasn't going to be taken until day three. The draft capital used combined with the fact he was the sercond tight end taken overall is going to vault Sinnott up rookie draft boards. While he could be taken a little too highly, Washington was a premier draft spot for a tight end and that can't be ignored.
Dynasty | The New York Jets drafted Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley early in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: He should slot in nicely behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams and be allowed to come along rather slowly. Corley is a bit of a project but his ceiling is tantalizing. Aaron Rodgers has been notoriously tough on rookie receivers, so some patience may need to be used here. However, Corley still looks like a pretty solid pick in the late second or early third round of a rookie draft. He's a small school prospect but has some pretty impressive tape out there so he could be a steal in the end.
Dynasty | The Arizona Cardinals drafted Florida State running back Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Benson was snapped up with the 66th overall selection. It's a solid landing spot for the former Seminole who will presumably pair with James Conner in a new-look backfield in the desert in the short-term. However, Conner's injury history and age is going to likely pave a quick path to a true starting job for Benson sooner rather than later. While he may not reach his potential for a year or two, Benson looks like a very solid pick right around the round 1/2 turn in rookie drafts.
Dynasty | With the early third round selection of RB Trey Benson, the Cardinals prepare for life after James Conner. Dynasty Analysis: Benson was widely regarded as a top two RB in the rookie class, and could prove to be a steal in the third round. But it isn't the type of draft capital that commands an immediate workload. Dynasty managers can expect a dip in Conner's dynasty value long-term; a dip that was coming for the 28 year-old anyways. But the short term value should get a bump as Conner takes on a full workload with Benson's fresh legs waiting patiently until the wheels fall off for Conner.
Dynasty | The Bengals drafted Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Burton was a surprise pick of the Bengals at #80 overall. While he's currently buried on the depth chart, there's a chance he can grow into real relevance if Tee Higgins eventually gets moved. Burton is a project but one with a pretty solid landing spot as he's now paired with Joe Burrow. Alabama receivers obviously have a solid track record in the NFL and Burton was once a highly though of prospect. Perhaps we have a diamond in the rough here with a late round rookie pick.
