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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Thu Jun 2 10:47am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Williams setup for breakout year


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season.

  2022 RB SOS  
1. Atlanta Falcons 380.2
2. Houston Texans 382.1
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 384
4. Philadelphia Eagles 386.7
5. Cincinnati Bengals 388
6. New York Giants 392.5
7. Carolina Panthers 393.2
8. Las Vegas Raiders 394.1
9. Pittsburgh Steelers 395.7
10. Washington Commanders 396.7
11. Los Angeles Chargers 397.3
12. Los Angeles Rams 397.8
13. San Francisco 49ers 398.2
14. Minnesota Vikings 398.5
15. Dallas Cowboys 399
16. New York Jets 399.2
17. New Orleans Saints 400.9
18. Seattle Seahawks 401.3
19. Kansas City Chiefs 401.4
20. Tennessee Titans 401.6
21. Baltimore Ravens 401.9
22. Green Bay Packers 404
23. Indianapolis Colts 404.7
24. Jacksonville Jaguars 405.8
25. Arizona Cardinals 406.8
26. Cleveland Browns 407
27. Detroit Lions 407.3
28. Buffalo Bills 410.6
29. New England Patriots 411.2
30. Denver Broncos 413.3
31. Chicago Bears 417.3
32. Miami Dolphins 421.2


The Dolphins have the best schedule for fantasy running backs this coming year. The problem is you just aren’t sure the back that will lead that team in carries. But these guys might be worth taking a chance on because of this schedule. Whoever emerges could be a productive fantasy asset. David Montgomery is intriguing on a team that lacks weapons in the passing game and gets the second easiest schedule for fantasy backs. Montgomery might have his best season to date. Javonte Williams is pegged as a breakout candidate by many and having the third most favorable fantasy schedule for running backs makes that even more of a possibility. The Patriots have a host of backs that should get carries and could all produce well with their favorable running back schedule. And the Bills duo of Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook could do some damage this year. 

Running backs with challenging fantasy running back schedules include Cordarrelle Patterson, Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders and Joe Mixon. Patterson is one guy that is a concern because of his finish to last year, stumbling at the end of the season after a great start. And now Patterson gets the most challenging fantasy schedule for running backs. Fournette is setup for more work with Ronald Jones gone, but that might not lead to a lot more fantasy points with this schedule. Lastly, Saquon Barkley has been a bust in recent years and his team has the sixth toughest schedule for fantasy backs. Barkley could have more tough sledding this year. 

Take a close look at this entire ranking when figuring out your fantasy rankings for the coming season.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Weeks 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests. 

  2022 RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Chargers 345.7
2. Houston Texans 364.5
3. Atlanta Falcons 368.8
4. Cleveland Browns 369.3
5. Philadelphia Eagles 372.9
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 376
7. Cincinnati Bengals 378.5
8. Green Bay Packers 380.3
9. Denver Broncos 384.5
10. Pittsburgh Steelers 388.9
11. New York Giants 390.5
12. Las Vegas Raiders 394
13. Arizona Cardinals 395.3
14. Dallas Cowboys 397.2
15. New Orleans Saints 400.7
16. Minnesota Vikings 403.7
17. Miami Dolphins 404.1
18. Washington Commanders 407.5
19. New England Patriots 407.9
20. Tennessee Titans 409.4
21. Chicago Bears 412.6
22. Indianapolis Colts 415.8
23. Baltimore Ravens 416.7
24. Los Angeles Rams 418.3
25. Jacksonville Jaguars 419.6
26. Seattle Seahawks 424.5
27. Kansas City Chiefs 424.7
28. Detroit Lions 425.2
29. New York Jets 430.6
30. Buffalo Bills 433.2
31. San Francisco 49ers 433.3
32. Carolina Panthers 442.6


Christian McCaffrey has big injury concerns, but his celling is as high as any back in the game. He also has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. This makes him a huge risk/reward pick for fantasy teams. McCaffrey could be a difference maker in the playoffs if he can stay on the field. Elijah Mitchell is another intriguing back for the coming year, getting a chance to start from day one and having the second most favorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rookie Breece Hall is expected to be the Jets lead back and could have a great finish to his season with a very favorable schedule to end things. And D’Andre Swift has a favorable regular and playoff fantasy schedule. Swift is another back that battles injury issues, but could be a monster this year if he can stay on the field all season. 

There are many repeat teams near the top of the list of the toughest fantasy running back schedules, including the Texans, Falcons and Eagles. You might just want to steer clear of players on these teams. Things might not work out well for them. The team with the toughest fantasy running back schedule in the playoffs, though, is the Chargers. Austin Ekeler is a top-five draft pick this year. He gets a ton of work in the passing game, so having a tough running back schedule isn’t a huge concern. But it is something to keep in mind when picking early in drafts. If you are debating between Ekeler and another high-profile back, you might want to lean the other way because of this playoff schedule.  

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer thinks Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt will either be taken by the Los Angeles Chargers or Tennessee Titans in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft. Alt has been compared to Joe Thomas, although Alt is a little bit bigger and longer. The son of an NFL lineman is still learning his position and won't turn 22 years old until after the Super Bowl. One veteran evaluator had Alt behind only Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. among the best players in this year's draft class. The Chargers hold the No. 5 overall pick on Thursday night, while the Titans sit at No. 7. Both teams could use an athletic tackle like Alt, with the Bolts looking to bolster their offensive line while transitioning to more of a run-first offense.

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Bo Nix Apr 24 9:20pm ET
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Denver Broncos' connections to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix have persisted with the 2024 NFL draft just a day away on Thursday night. Nix is a player that teams could wait on until the second round, but the Broncos don't have a current second-round pick this year and are slated to select in the first round at No. 12. Their acquisition of former first-rounder Zach Wilson adds another layer to their QB situation heading into Thursday evening. The Broncos have done their homework on the QB draft class -- they hosted Washington's Michael Penix Jr. on a top-30 visit and watched Michigan's J.J. McCarthy work out -- and have discussed a potential trade up in the first round. However, they have plenty of other needs and have also talked about trading down. Right now, Jarrett Stidham and Wilson are slated to compete for the starting job in training camp.

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Michael Penix Jr. Apr 24 9:10pm ET
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The Las Vegas Raiders are thought to be high on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and if the QB market starts drying up quickly in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft and they feel the need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people think are willing to trade down. The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take LSU's Jayden Daniels to reunite him with head coach Antonio Pierce, but they know they might not be able to do that. The Raiders have talked with the Arizona Cardinals about what it would take to trade up to No. 4, but Vegas' interest in that pick would likely cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.

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Drake Maye Apr 24 9:00pm ET
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New England Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round of this year's NFL draft with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with the Minnesota Vikings or No. 13 with the Las Vegas Raiders might be too far of a drop for the team to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they move back only three spots to No. 6 in a trade with the New York Giants, they could still be in position to pick a QB in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks. The Patriots gathered information on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in the pre-draft process in case they decide to trade down. The Pats appear to be high on him, but ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't think he'll be in consideration if they stay at No. 3. Most pundits believe New England will take North Carolina's Drake Maye if they stick in the third spot.

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J.J. McCarthy Apr 24 8:50pm ET
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The Athletic's Jeff Howe predicts that New York Giants will trade the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft and a 2025 second-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in order to move up to fourth overall to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy on Thursday night. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort is eager to trade down for a second straight year. If LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye remain available at No. 4, the Minnesota Vikings or Las Vegas Raiders would probably become more aggressive in pursuing the fourth overall pick. "I think there's going to be a race to McCarthy between the Giants and Vikings," a coach said. McCarthy doesn't have the upside that the top three QBs in this class do, but rival executives cited concerns with Giants current QB Daniel Jones' (knee) health after tearing his ACL and dealing with a neck injury in 2023.

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Drake Maye Apr 24 8:40pm ET
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The Athletic's Jeff Howe thinks No. 3 to the New England Patriots in Thursday night's NFL draft feels like the spot for North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, although a couple executives made a case for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Maye has prototypical size, arm strength and athletic ability, but there's genuine concern about his inconsistencies in 2023, and his tape shed light on some erratic throws and tendencies. He has a reputation as a high-character person with great leadership abilities. Maye would be the more traditional pick at No. 3 to the Pats, with McCarthy being viewed as more of a surprise. If Maye is still available at No. 3, one executive thinks the Minnesota Vikings "would move heaven and Earth" to try and move up to draft him. If Maye lands in New England, he could sit and learn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett in 2024.

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Micah Parsons Apr 24 8:30pm ET
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The Dallas Cowboys officially picked up hybrid defensive end Micah Parsons' fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the move. Parsons' salary is worth $21.32 million as a defensive end, which is the position at which he played the majority of his snaps in 2023. The 24-year-old former 12th overall pick in 2021 out of Penn State has been a beast rushing the passer so far in his first three NFL seasons. He's made the Pro Bowl in all three seasons and has a total of 213 tackles (142 solo), 40.5 sacks, 51 tackles for loss, 89 QB hits, eight passes defended, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries (one returned for a touchdown) in 50 regular-season starts. Parsons had 64 tackles and a career-high 14 sacks in 2023 and will once again be a highly coveted pass-rusher in IDP fantasy formats this fall.

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Jayden Daniels Apr 24 8:30pm ET
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Word around the league is that the Washington Commanders have advocates in their building for both LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and North Carolina QB Drake Maye. However, almost everyone polled for The Athletic's story believed Daniels was destined for Washington with new general manager Adam Peters hot for Daniels. The belief from rival teams is that the Commanders had been leaning toward Maye much earlier in the pre-draft process, but Daniels has done enough to lock himself into the No. 2 pick. One executive from a team outside of the top 10 wouldn't rule out a brief Daniels slide, perhaps down to No. 4. Still, it's highly unlikely Daniels drops out of the top five. If he goes to D.C., he'll be favored to start from Day 1 in his rookie season.

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Tarik Cohen Apr 24 8:20pm ET
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Trey Hendrickson Apr 24 8:10pm ET
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Ezekiel Elliott Apr 24 8:10pm ET
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The Dallas Cowboys are currently meeting with free-agent running back Ezekiel Elliott's representatives around the facility on Wednesday, a day before the start of the 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. There has been mutual interest from both sides in a reunion this offseason as the Cowboys look to bolster their running back position after losing Tony Pollard in free agency. As of right now, Dallas' RB room consists of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, Royce Freeman and Snoop Conner. The 28-year-old Elliott had 184 carries for 642 yards (career-low 3.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns while adding 51 catches for 313 yards and another two scores through the air in 17 games for the New England Patriots in 2023. At this point in his career, Zeke needs volume to be fantasy relevant, and that probably won't happen if he returns to Dallas.

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Jim Harbaugh Apr 24 5:00pm ET
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Drake Maye Apr 24 4:40pm ET
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The New York Giants are in an interesting predicament at the quarterback spot. The organization signed Daniel Jones (knee) to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, but he didn't play well in 2023, and he is coming off a torn ACL. There has been plenty of buzz surrounding New York selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that they could pass on a quarterback if North Carolina's Drake Maye isn't available at pick No. 6. "Most teams believe if Maye is off the board, the Giants' most likely scenario is to go wide receiver to land a player who can help an offense that was last in the league in yards after the catch in 2023," Russini wrote. If the reports are true, look for New York to target LSU's Malik Nabers in that draft slot. That said, Washington's Rome Odunze is likely in consideration as well.

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University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has seemingly been rising draft boards this offseason, and NFL insider Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that he could enter the discussion to be one of the first four quarterbacks off the board. "It's been assumed the top four QBs are Williams, Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy," Russini wrote "But don't be surprised if Penix enters the discussion come Thursday." Penix, who will be 24 years old during his rookie season, had a monster two-year stretch with Washington after four injury-riddled campaigns at Indiana. In 2022 and 2023, combined, the lefty posted 9,544 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. He ran between a 4.51 and 4.57 forty-yard dash at the Huskies' Pro Day, so his 226 career rushing yards might not demonstrate his full rushing ability.

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Jared Goff Apr 24 4:20pm ET
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Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had a monster 2023 season, throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He led Detroit to the No. 3 seed in the NFC and the organization won two playoff games in a single postseason for the first time since 1957. On Wednesday, the team signed Pro Bowl wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell to high-dollar four-year contract extensions, but Goff is reportedly not close to agreeing to a new long-term deal. According to Adam Schefter, no new deal is "imminent" as of now. This will be an interesting development to watch play out, as the former Los Angeles Rams No. 1 overall pick is entering the final year of his contract in the Motor City and could become a free agent next offseason.

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Justin Jefferson Apr 24 4:13pm ET
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J.J. McCarthy Apr 24 3:00pm ET
J.J. McCarthy

Former Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning recently talked with Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and said the Broncos are interested in him with the 2024 NFL draft beginning on Thursday night. "I know Denver is very interested in him and it sounded like a place he'd love to come to but it's a little bit out of his control," Manning told Denver Sports over the air. McCarthy played in a pro-style offense at Michigan and led the Wolverines to the national championship earlier this year. He wasn't allowed to throw the ball that much in college, but he really impressed at his pro day and has been rising up draft boards ever since. McCarthy is a candidate to go in the first five picks on Thursday night, although it seems unlikely that Denver has the ammunition to pull off a trade up into the top five this year to select McCarthy, especially after trading for Zach Wilson on Tuesday.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown Apr 24 2:40pm ET
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Detroit Lions All-Pro offensive tackle Penei Sewell agreed to terms on a four-year, $112 million contract extension with the Lions on Wednesday that makes him the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL. The deal also includes $85 million guaranteed. The Lions were active in keeping several key contributors of their offense around for the long term, as they also gave receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown a four-year extension that makes him the highest-paid wideout in the league for the time being. Sewell, who was drafted seventh overall in 2021 out of Oregon, has made the Pro Bowl each of the last two years and was a first-time All-Pro in 2023. The 23-year-old has been a big reason for the Lions' resurgence in the last two years.

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