Lineup Prep: Week 7
Wed Oct 20 10:14am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Henderson is an elite fantasy back
This should be a really interesting fantasy week. There are several top fantasy players off this week, causing for some holes in lineups. But for the teams playing, several are huge favorites to win their games this week. So that means we could still get some high-scoring fantasy games despite all the players off. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Najee Harris has a chance to be really, really good. He has an awful offensive line right now and his quarterback play hasn’t been good at all. Despite that, Harris is fourth overall in fantasy running back scoring. His volume has been through the roof this year. If the Steelers just make a few improvements the next few seasons, watch out for Harris. He is super talented with a really bright future.
I don’t think the return of Calvin Ridley will be a big issue for Kyle Pitts going forward. Pitts dominated work in Week 5 with Ridley out, getting 10 targets. But he has 19 targets his last two games and at least eight targets three of five. He is just getting on the same page with Matt Ryan and a matchup nightmare for the opposition. I really think Pitts is going to have a big finish to his rookie season, coming out of this bye week.
Owners are freaking out over the bye weeks this week. I totally understand it. I have seen some experts posting on Twitter or writing that owners should have drafted better to not let this happen. I don’t agree with that line of thinking. I think getting the best team possible, regardless of bye weeks is the way to go. If you have to bite the bullet one week, so be it. I rarely look at bye weeks during the draft these days. I just try to draft the best team possible. There is so much that can happen during a fantasy season to impact lineups. I just think you can adjust as the season progresses. Now once the season starts and the bye weeks get near, I start to prepare. But as for before the season, forget about it.
I hate to say this but Jalen Hurts has a long way to go as an NFL quarterback. For fantasy purposes, he is just fine. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and has at least 23 fantasy points every game. His consistency is amazing. But he misses a lot of throws during a game and needs a ton of work at the position. I worry about him keeping a starting job past this season if he doesn’t start making some big strides in a hurry.
You have to wonder what the heck the Jaguars were thinking when they took running back Travis Etienne in the first round of this year’s draft. James Robinson is a really good back and one of the top starters in the league in my opinion. The Jaguars have so many needs that wasting a pick on another running back made little sense. And I think Robinson is driving this point home even more with his great play lately.
I know the season isn’t over but I will be the first to admit a mistake when I make one. And I was off on Derrick Henry this year. I was just worried about his huge workload in recent seasons and thought a regression could be coming either in performance or because of injury. I did a huge research article on workloads for running backs and the numbers weren’t favorable for Henry at all. Well, Henry proved me wrong and is the top fantasy back in the game right now. He is off to a monster start, having three games with 30-plus fantasy points. Henry has about 40 more fantasy points than the second rated fantasy back. That is a huge disparity. He has been the difference maker for fantasy owners to start the year. Swing and a miss for me on that one.
News and Notes: The Jaguars released kicker Josh Lambo on Tuesday. He has been a healthy scratch the last two weeks. Matthew Wright has emerged as the starting kicker for the Jaguars and will keep that job moving forward. . . . .The Saints signed running back Lamar Miller to their practice squad on Tuesday. Miller gives the team a little more depth at the position, which is banged up at the moment. . . . .Chicago signed running back Chris Thompson to their practice squad on Tuesday. The Bears are another team looking for depth at running back because of injury.
HOT PLAYS
A.J. Green, WR, Cardinals. Green has been consistent as the starting receiver opposite DeAndre Hopkins. He has five receptions three of four games and at least 13 fantasy points four of five. He is getting it done on a weekly basis. And Green led the Cardinals receivers in playing time last week, playing 91 percent of the snaps. He has been on the field for at least 79 percent of the snaps every game this season. Green should keep it going this week against a Texans team allowing 249.8-passing yards per game.
Damien Harris, RB, Patriots. Harris had his second 100-yard game of the season last week and has touchdowns two straight games. He also has at least 14 carries four of six games. He isn’t catching many passes but his rushing yards and scores make him a viable No. 2 running back for fantasy teams. He has a chance to find the end zone for a third straight game this week, playing the Jets. New York has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans. Derrick Henry continues to carry the Titans offense right now, but Tannehill seems close to that big game. He hasn’t really had one yet this year. But a game against the Chiefs seems a prime time to use Tannehill. This game should be a shootout with a ton of fantasy points on both sides. Tannehill does have two games this season with 40 or more pass attempts. If that happens this week, look for a big game from Tannehill against the Chiefs. Kansas City allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams. Henderson scored multiple touchdowns for the first time all season lsat week. He had 107 total yards and two scores. Henderson has been as consistent as any fantasy back all season. He has at least 15.7 fantasy points every game. His floor has been very high. Expect more good things from him this week, playing the Lions. Detroit is 26th against the run and allow the second most fantasy points to running backs.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons. Ridley is back from his time off for personal reasons. He should be just fine going forward as the No. 1 target in the Falcons passing attack. Ridley’s high in yards just year is 80 but he is getting the looks having at least seven receptions three straight games. He is ready for one of his huge games. That huge game might come this week against the Dolphins, a team with all sorts of injuries to key players in their secondary. Miami allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and rank 29th overall against the pass.
COLD PLAYS
Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. Mayfield scored multiple touchdowns last week but still failed to top 20 fantasy points. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points four of six games. He also is battling a shoulder injury, which is another concern. Mayfield just isn’t getting it done right now for his fantasy owners. And despite the team being without their top two running backs this week, Mayfield remains a risky play. His production just hasn’t been there this season. Plus, he plays a Broncos team that allows the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots. Meyers has been a dependable option this year, having double-digit fantasy points four of six games. He has been consistent, racking up the catches on a weekly basis. He has at least four receptions every games. Unfortunately, he has yet to score a touchdown and has fewer than 50 yards three games. He has been pretty mediocre many weeks. Meyers might have another one of those down games this week against the Jets. New York has allowed just four passing touchdowns all year and give up the fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. Gordon has been really mediocre since Week 3. He had 15-plus points two of his first three games but hasn’t topped that mark since. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of his last three games. It just seems a matter of time before rookie Javonte Williams starts cutting into his playing time even more. We would steer clear of Gordon this week against the Browns. Cleveland is sixth overall against the run and allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Henry Ruggs, WR, Raiders. Ruggs is having a much better second season, nearing 450-receiving yards after six games. He has been a little hit or miss, though. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of six games. He doesn’t get a ton of weekly targets. Ruggs has just three receptions three straight games and his season high in receptions is five. We think this week might be one of his down weeks once again, likely facing Darius Slay in coverage. The Eagles also allow the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Devontae Booker, RB, Giants. Booker got the start last week and plenty of work in that role. He ran 12 times for just 41 yards, though, and caught four passes for 28 yards. He didn’t do much with his workload against a good Rams defense. We would not surprise to see him have a similar game in Week 7 against the Panthers. Carolina is another team good against the run. The Panthers allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs.
SLEEPERS
Allen Lazard, WR, Packers. Lazard has not topped 50 yards all season but scored his first touchdown of the season last week. He also has multiple receptions three straight games. Lazard has played at least 79 percent of the snaps each of his last three games. He is on the field and getting some weekly looks. It just seems a matter of time before he has a breakout game. And we think that game might be this week against Washington, a team that can’t stop anyone through the air right now and allow the second most fantasy points to receivers.
Jameis Winston, QB, Saints. Winston has been wildly inconsistent this year but had maybe his best game of the season his last time out. He threw four touchdown passes. The big takeaway in the game was his 30 pass attempts, which was a season high. This could be a trend going forward, having Winston air the ball out a little more. The offense has been stagnant at times, so maybe taking the reigns off Winston is the way to go for the Saints. And if they do that this week against the Seahawks, Winston is capable of another big performance. Seattle is 28th against the pass, allowing 292.3-passing yards per game.
Mike Davis, RB, Falcons. Cordarrelle Patterson has been the best Falcons fantasy back this year, but Davis has shown flashes. He still gets most of the carries and has a role in the passing game. Davis has double-digit fantasy points every game. And he had a season-high 14.1 fantasy points his last time out. Look for Davis to build on that this week against the Dolphins. Miami allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.
Justin Fields, QB, Bears. Fields is yet to do much for fantasy teams just yet. His season high in fantasy points is just 16, which he reached last week. We all know the potential is there, though, especially because Fields is capable of making big plays with his legs. If he can keep progressing, he is going to help fantasy teams. And that help might come this week against Tampa. The Bucs allow the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 27th overall against the pass.
Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs. The Chiefs brought in Josh Gordon to help at receiver, but Hardman remains a big part of the passing game. His playing time hasn’t been impacted much at all. His production has actually improved since Gordon has played. Hardman has 13 receptions for 138 yards on 17 targets his last two games. He has double-digit fantasy points four of six games. Hardman might have season best numbers this week against the Titans in what should be a shootout of a game. Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to receivers.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Washington/Packers, Chiefs/Titans, Bengals/Ravens, Lions/Rams, Texans/Cardinals.
Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Browns, Panthers/Giants, Colts/49ers.
Bye Weeks: Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
When asked by Rich Eisen if he has any idea on where he's going to end up in this week's NFL draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy hinted at the New York Giants, who currently own the No. 6 overall pick in the first round on Thursday night. "I have somewhat of an Idea, New York, #Giants, I've spent the most time with. They're a phenomenal staff," McCarthy said. The young QB's stock has been rising rapidly ever since his pro-day workout. Reports suggest the Giants and Vikings could be in a raise to trade up to select McCarthy, who is attractive because of his experience running a pro-style offense in college. With Daniel Jones (knee) coming off a torn ACL and with no guaranteed money owed to him beyond 2024, the G-Men have done their due diligence on QBs in this year's draft and feel like a lock to take one at some point this week.
From RotoBaller
Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer thinks Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt will either be taken by the Los Angeles Chargers or Tennessee Titans in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft. Alt has been compared to Joe Thomas, although Alt is a little bit bigger and longer. The son of an NFL lineman is still learning his position and won't turn 22 years old until after the Super Bowl. One veteran evaluator had Alt behind only Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. among the best players in this year's draft class. The Chargers hold the No. 5 overall pick on Thursday night, while the Titans sit at No. 7. Both teams could use an athletic tackle like Alt, with the Bolts looking to bolster their offensive line while transitioning to more of a run-first offense.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos' connections to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix have persisted with the 2024 NFL draft just a day away on Thursday night. Nix is a player that teams could wait on until the second round, but the Broncos don't have a current second-round pick this year and are slated to select in the first round at No. 12. Their acquisition of former first-rounder Zach Wilson adds another layer to their QB situation heading into Thursday evening. The Broncos have done their homework on the QB draft class -- they hosted Washington's Michael Penix Jr. on a top-30 visit and watched Michigan's J.J. McCarthy work out -- and have discussed a potential trade up in the first round. However, they have plenty of other needs and have also talked about trading down. Right now, Jarrett Stidham and Wilson are slated to compete for the starting job in training camp.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders are thought to be high on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and if the QB market starts drying up quickly in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft and they feel the need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people think are willing to trade down. The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take LSU's Jayden Daniels to reunite him with head coach Antonio Pierce, but they know they might not be able to do that. The Raiders have talked with the Arizona Cardinals about what it would take to trade up to No. 4, but Vegas' interest in that pick would likely cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round of this year's NFL draft with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with the Minnesota Vikings or No. 13 with the Las Vegas Raiders might be too far of a drop for the team to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they move back only three spots to No. 6 in a trade with the New York Giants, they could still be in position to pick a QB in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks. The Patriots gathered information on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in the pre-draft process in case they decide to trade down. The Pats appear to be high on him, but ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't think he'll be in consideration if they stay at No. 3. Most pundits believe New England will take North Carolina's Drake Maye if they stick in the third spot.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe predicts that New York Giants will trade the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft and a 2025 second-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in order to move up to fourth overall to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy on Thursday night. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort is eager to trade down for a second straight year. If LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye remain available at No. 4, the Minnesota Vikings or Las Vegas Raiders would probably become more aggressive in pursuing the fourth overall pick. "I think there's going to be a race to McCarthy between the Giants and Vikings," a coach said. McCarthy doesn't have the upside that the top three QBs in this class do, but rival executives cited concerns with Giants current QB Daniel Jones' (knee) health after tearing his ACL and dealing with a neck injury in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe thinks No. 3 to the New England Patriots in Thursday night's NFL draft feels like the spot for North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, although a couple executives made a case for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Maye has prototypical size, arm strength and athletic ability, but there's genuine concern about his inconsistencies in 2023, and his tape shed light on some erratic throws and tendencies. He has a reputation as a high-character person with great leadership abilities. Maye would be the more traditional pick at No. 3 to the Pats, with McCarthy being viewed as more of a surprise. If Maye is still available at No. 3, one executive thinks the Minnesota Vikings "would move heaven and Earth" to try and move up to draft him. If Maye lands in New England, he could sit and learn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys officially picked up hybrid defensive end Micah Parsons' fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the move. Parsons' salary is worth $21.32 million as a defensive end, which is the position at which he played the majority of his snaps in 2023. The 24-year-old former 12th overall pick in 2021 out of Penn State has been a beast rushing the passer so far in his first three NFL seasons. He's made the Pro Bowl in all three seasons and has a total of 213 tackles (142 solo), 40.5 sacks, 51 tackles for loss, 89 QB hits, eight passes defended, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries (one returned for a touchdown) in 50 regular-season starts. Parsons had 64 tackles and a career-high 14 sacks in 2023 and will once again be a highly coveted pass-rusher in IDP fantasy formats this fall.
From RotoBaller
Word around the league is that the Washington Commanders have advocates in their building for both LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and North Carolina QB Drake Maye. However, almost everyone polled for The Athletic's story believed Daniels was destined for Washington with new general manager Adam Peters hot for Daniels. The belief from rival teams is that the Commanders had been leaning toward Maye much earlier in the pre-draft process, but Daniels has done enough to lock himself into the No. 2 pick. One executive from a team outside of the top 10 wouldn't rule out a brief Daniels slide, perhaps down to No. 4. Still, it's highly unlikely Daniels drops out of the top five. If he goes to D.C., he'll be favored to start from Day 1 in his rookie season.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers linebacker Shaq Thompson (leg), offensive guard Austin Corbett (knee), pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and running back Tarik Cohen (Achilles) have all been taking part in drills during voluntary offseason workouts this week. Meanwhile, offensive guard Chandler Zavala (knee) and linebackers D.J. Wonnum (quadriceps) Amare Barno (knee) weren't participating in drills. Thompson, who suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 last year against the New Orleans Saints, is the most notable name of this group. The 30-year-old should be ready to go for training camp and the preseason later this year as long as he doesn't suffer a setback before then. The former 25th overall pick in 2015 out of Washington recorded 100-plus combined tackles in each of his previous four seasons with Carolina before getting hurt in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson has requested to be traded from the Bengals, according to a league source. Hendrickson is due to make $15 million in 2024 and is looking for more long-term security than the Bengals have been willing to offer. It remains to be seen if the 29-year-old's wish will be granted with the first round of the 2024 NFL draft coming on Thursday evening. The former third-round pick of the New Orleans Saints in 2017 out of Florida Atlantic has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons with the Bengals. In 17 starts in 2023, he had a career-high 43 tackles (28 solo), a career-high 17.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, 25 QB hits and three forced fumbles. Even if he heads to a new team for 2024, Hendrickson should still be in play as a weekly starting defensive lineman in IDP fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys are currently meeting with free-agent running back Ezekiel Elliott's representatives around the facility on Wednesday, a day before the start of the 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. There has been mutual interest from both sides in a reunion this offseason as the Cowboys look to bolster their running back position after losing Tony Pollard in free agency. As of right now, Dallas' RB room consists of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, Royce Freeman and Snoop Conner. The 28-year-old Elliott had 184 carries for 642 yards (career-low 3.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns while adding 51 catches for 313 yards and another two scores through the air in 17 games for the New England Patriots in 2023. At this point in his career, Zeke needs volume to be fantasy relevant, and that probably won't happen if he returns to Dallas.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers are set to undergo a rebuilding phase following the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the departures of longtime offensive weapons Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. L.A. has been rumored to be a top landing spot for Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison or LSU wideout Malik Nabers, but Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report suggests they are likely to pick an offensive tackle if they stay at pick No. 5. Notre Dame's Joe Alt is expected to be the first player at the position off the board. Alt has been mocked to the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 7 for much of the offseason, so the Chargers picking the 2023 first-team All-American would shake things up drastically. The Chargers have a lot of options with teams potentially trying to move up for a quarterback, so they are one of the key teams to monitor in the first round on Thursday.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants are in an interesting predicament at the quarterback spot. The organization signed Daniel Jones (knee) to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, but he didn't play well in 2023, and he is coming off a torn ACL. There has been plenty of buzz surrounding New York selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that they could pass on a quarterback if North Carolina's Drake Maye isn't available at pick No. 6. "Most teams believe if Maye is off the board, the Giants' most likely scenario is to go wide receiver to land a player who can help an offense that was last in the league in yards after the catch in 2023," Russini wrote. If the reports are true, look for New York to target LSU's Malik Nabers in that draft slot. That said, Washington's Rome Odunze is likely in consideration as well.
From RotoBaller
University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has seemingly been rising draft boards this offseason, and NFL insider Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that he could enter the discussion to be one of the first four quarterbacks off the board. "It's been assumed the top four QBs are Williams, Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy," Russini wrote "But don't be surprised if Penix enters the discussion come Thursday." Penix, who will be 24 years old during his rookie season, had a monster two-year stretch with Washington after four injury-riddled campaigns at Indiana. In 2022 and 2023, combined, the lefty posted 9,544 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. He ran between a 4.51 and 4.57 forty-yard dash at the Huskies' Pro Day, so his 226 career rushing yards might not demonstrate his full rushing ability.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had a monster 2023 season, throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He led Detroit to the No. 3 seed in the NFC and the organization won two playoff games in a single postseason for the first time since 1957. On Wednesday, the team signed Pro Bowl wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell to high-dollar four-year contract extensions, but Goff is reportedly not close to agreeing to a new long-term deal. According to Adam Schefter, no new deal is "imminent" as of now. This will be an interesting development to watch play out, as the former Los Angeles Rams No. 1 overall pick is entering the final year of his contract in the Motor City and could become a free agent next offseason.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Lions have signed wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: The contract is basically a four-year, $120 million extension with $77 million guaranteed, the most ever for a wide receiver in NFL history. It's a huge haul for St. Brown, who has quickly established himself as one of the best players in the NFL. After his 119/1,515/10 season last year, the Lions were going to either pay him or risk losing him after his rookie deal expired. They've clearly chosen to build around him and he should be firmly cemented as a WR1 in dynasty moving forward. St. Brown is an easy target for any team looking for a premier centerpiece to their dynasty team as the best could truly be yet to come.
Dynasty | The Steelers are not expected to pick up the fifth-year option on the contract of Justin Fields. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't much of a surprise as the Steelers would be on the hook for $25 million in his fifth year and don't even know if they want him as their long-term starter at this point. Pittsburgh is likely going to go into the season with Russell Wilson as their starter but also quietly evaluating Fields to be a possible successor. We'll see what happens but Fields looks like a player who could be a sneaky buy in the next few months leading up to the season as his ADP has tanked.
Dynasty | The Bengals are picking up the fifth year option on the contract of Ja'Marr Chase. Dynasty Analysis: Consider this a placeholder as Cincinnati now needs to prepare to make Chase the highest paid receiver in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has set the market with a four-year, $120 million extension ($77 million guaranteed), so the Bengals are going to need to assemble a few armored cars here soon. Chase and Justin Jefferson should both be set to sign historic deals and while the option being picked up buys the Bengals one more season, dynasty managers shouldn't worry about him hitting free agency any time soon. Chase remains a bona fide candidate for the top overall selection in dynasty leagues.
Former Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning recently talked with Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and said the Broncos are interested in him with the 2024 NFL draft beginning on Thursday night. "I know Denver is very interested in him and it sounded like a place he'd love to come to but it's a little bit out of his control," Manning told Denver Sports over the air. McCarthy played in a pro-style offense at Michigan and led the Wolverines to the national championship earlier this year. He wasn't allowed to throw the ball that much in college, but he really impressed at his pro day and has been rising up draft boards ever since. McCarthy is a candidate to go in the first five picks on Thursday night, although it seems unlikely that Denver has the ammunition to pull off a trade up into the top five this year to select McCarthy, especially after trading for Zach Wilson on Tuesday.
From RotoBaller
