Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Amid turmoil, Jeff Fisher to lead Arena Football League
- NFL's top 25 games of 2024
- Giants to make 'Hard Knocks' debut
- Netflix to broadcast NFL's Christmas Day games
- NFL International Series: Jaguars play 2, No. 1 pick in London
- Kirk Cousins takes field with Falcons, moving past injury, draft shocker
- Jason Kelce joins ESPN's 'Monday Night Countdown' crew
- Browns S Rodney McLeod to retire after 2024 season
- Commanders release QB Jake Fromm
- Bills, Dolphins to meet in first 2024 Amazon Prime Video game
- 49ers sign OT Chris Hubbard
- Bills sign WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to 1-year contract
- Oh, snap: Jets, Aaron Rodgers open on MNF again
- Cowboys, Browns and Brady featured in Week 1 matchup
- Lions award Jared Goff four-year, $212M extension
- Bucs S Antoine Winfield gets record 4-year, $84.1M extension
- Saints reach deal with veteran G Lucas Patrick
- Chiefs to open 2024 season vs. Ravens
- Former Chargers GM A.J. Smith dies at 75
- Pats coach Jerod Mayo says QB Drake Maye will 'put the work in'
The Paur Report
The New York Giants will debut on the HBO show Hard Knocks: Offseason in 2024 in their 100th season in the NFL. The show will feature the Giants for the first time since the series' debut in 2001 as the four-time Super Bowl-winning franchise prepares for its 100th season. It will be the first iteration of Hard Knocks to document the NFL offseason, chronicling the G-Men's moves from January to July. The five-episode season will debut on Tuesday, July 2. Hard Knocks has been in New York twice before with the Jets in 2010 and 2023 and has also followed the Dallas Cowboys three different times (2002, 2008, 2021). In New York, this will be their first year without running back Saquon Barkley while quarterback Daniel Jones (knee) tries to come back from a torn ACL in 2023. New York took receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick in this year's draft.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns safety Rodney McLeod said that he will retire following the 2024 season, which will be his 13th year in the league. "This is the last lap for me," McLeod said Monday during an appearance on NFL Network's "NFL Total Access." He will turn 34 in June and signed a one-year deal this offseason to return to the Browns for a second season. McLeod entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent out of Virginia in 2012. He spent the first four seasons of his career with the Rams before joining the Eagles from 2016-21. McLeod was with the Colts in 2022 and had 29 tackles (16 solo) and a pass defended in 10 regular season games (five starts) last year. He suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week 11. It sounds as though McLeod is now healthy as he looks to provide veteran secondary depth for Cleveland in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver/return man Velus Jones Jr. should only benefit from the new kickoff rules in the NFL that will start for the 2024 season. "How it pertains to our team, you can only think about a guy like Velus Jones. Great example," special teams coordinator Richard Hightower said. "A guy like that with his type of skill set, with the speed and the power that he has, and he's coming full speed ahead at you, it's like a damn freight train running at you." Jones' average of 27.4 yards per return trails only Keisean Nixon over the last two years. He hasn't worked out as a punt returner and also hasn't had much of a role in the offense since entering the league in 2022, but the 27-year-old's size/speed combo could come in handy for the Bears on kickoffs this year. The Bears could also use running back Khalil Herbert on kickoffs.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift will be taking over the team's lead running back in 2024 after he signed with the team minutes into the start of free agency in early March. "He's exciting to watch, man. That guy, he's got so much ability. He's fast, he can make guys miss and what we're excited about now is just opening up the passing game with the backs. He's got that opportunity to have that one-on-one matchup out of the backfield. We can get him out on empty (formation). We do a lot of empty stuff here, too, so we can move this guy all around. He can win from any spot," RBs coach Chad Morton said. When Morton coached in Seattle in 2023, Kenneth Walker III had 219 carries for 905 yards, with Zach Charbonnet carrying the ball 108 times for 462 yards. Swift is surely intriguing as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but he's inevitably going to lose touches to Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, and the Bears also have plenty of receivers that will command targets.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Javon Baker flashed significant promise during his first NFL practice this week, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic. Howe notes that Baker made several impressive plays. He reached to save a sailing throw, utilized "nifty footwork" to get out of his break on a crossing route, and generally demonstrated smooth route-running." There will be growing pains in 2024 as head coach Jerod Mayo, quarterback Drake Maye, and receivers Ja'Lynn Polk and Baker embark on their rookie seasons. However, early indications suggest that Baker could make an immediate impact in New England, earning opportunities over the likes of Polk, Kendrick Bourne, and Demario Douglas. He's a fringe top-30 rookie in fantasy football dynasty leagues.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, whom the team selected second overall in last month's NFL Draft, is already making a positive impression during the early days of OTAs. "His football IQ is really high," offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said. "He's really well versed in protections." Kingsbury noted that Daniels works very hard, constantly improved on tape in college, and is always working hard to get better. The former LSU signal-caller also drew praise from wide receiver Jahan Dotson, who said, "That's the quarterback I wanted." He added that he's been very impressed by what he has seen from Daniels so far. Overall, there seems to be plenty of positive buzz surrounding Daniels. There's a case to be made that he could be the No. 1 rookie quarterback in fantasy football, putting him over the likes of Caleb Williams and the rest of the class. He should be a top-five pick in rookie drafts and a must-draft name in most redraft formats.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) was seen jogging lightly and throwing during OTAs on Tuesday, according to Zach Klein of WSB. The veteran signal-caller tore his Achilles while playing for the Minnesota Vikings roughly six months ago, but this latest update suggests his recovery is going quite well. Reports out of Georgia indicate that Cousins is already forming a firm rapport with his receivers, including Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney. As long as Cousins remains on track to play Week 1, he'll enter the 2024 campaign as a fringe top-12 quarterback in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Erick All (knee) participated in drills during OTAs on Tuesday, according to James Rapien of Sports Illustrated. The rookie was selected with the 115th pick in last month's NFL Draft and is currently recovering from the torn ACL he suffered while playing collegiate football at the University of Iowa. There's no shortage of former Hawkeye tight ends making a big impact at the pro level, so fans should be excited about watching All get healthy and make his NFL debut. All does face some competition for volume in Cincinnati, but most of those targets will go to the wide receiver position. At tight end, All could battle to earn the top spot over the likes of Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Luke McCaffrey "lined up outside more than expected" during Day 1 of OTAs on Tuesday, according to Ben Standig of The Athletic. Washington selected McCaffrey, a product of Rice University, with the 100th overall selection in the third round of April's NFL Draft. McCaffrey impressed in the slot throughout his college career, demonstrating the physicality, athleticism, and ball security skills needed to succeed there at the next level. However, it appears that Washington has different plans or at least wants to explore all their options with the rookie. Perhaps he has impressed the coaching staff enough for them to experiment with him outside. Such positional versatility could allow McCaffrey to carve out a decent role in his first pro season, though he's still off the radar in most redraft leagues. For dynasty purposes, he's a fringe top-25 rookie heading into the 2024 campaign.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos and rookie third-round linebacker Jonah Elliss (shoulder) agreed to a four-year, $5.87 million rookie contract on Tuesday that includes a $1.09 million signing bonus. The 21-year-old pass-rusher had 12 sacks in just 10 games in his final year at Utah in 2023. His injury ultimately required surgery to fix a torn labrum in his shoulder, but Elliss took part in walkthroughs and individual periods during the team's rookie minicamp last weekend. Barring a setback, he should be ready to go for training camp this summer and the start of his first year in the NFL this fall. He's the son of former NFL player Luther Elliss and could factor in as a situational pass-rusher in Denver in his rookie campaign if he's able to stay healthy.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes said this week on The Rich Eisen Show that second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs could have an even bigger role in 2024. "I definitely would expect him to see more of a load, but David Montgomery will still be here too," Holmes said. "Dan and I love that 1-2 punch of him and David." The former first-round pick in 2023 was third among running backs with 5.2 yards per carry in his rookie campaign, so fantasy managers that were already fond of Gibbs' stock in a rising Lions offense will be pleased that he could be even more valuable as an RB1 in 2024. Not only should the 22-year-old former Alabama back see more carries, but he should also be more involved in the passing attack, where he can really excel with yards after the catch in open space. Only seven RBs saw more targets than Gibbs' 71 in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Veteran free-agent wide receiver Martavis Bryant is scheduled to work out for the Washington Commanders on Wednesday, according to a source. Bryant was released last week by the Dallas Cowboys, whose former defensive coordinator is now the head coach for the Commanders. The former fourth-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2014 out of Clemson has had his NFL career ruined by off-the-field issues that have led to suspensions, and he hasn't appeared in an NFL game since 2018 with the Raiders. The 32-year-old would merely serve as receiver depth heading into training camp and the postseason in Washington behind the likes of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, rookie Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown and others if he were to sign with the Commanders. In four NFL seasons, Bryant has caught 145 passes for 2,183 yards and 17 touchdowns in 44 games (18 starts).
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd signed his rookie deal, the organization announced on Tuesday. Lloyd, who was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, is expected to see a role in Year 1 behind Josh Jacobs in the emerging Packers' offense. Although the 23-year-old didn't have the most productive career at South Carolina and Southern California, he flashed explosiveness in 2023 with 7.1 yards per carry and 17.8 yards per reception. His 4.46 forty-yard-dash time at 220 pounds likely cemented himself as a Day 2 draft choice, and running backs taken before Round 4 are usually given a fair shot at competing for touches. He should beat out AJ Dillon at some point in 2024, making him a high-end handcuff RB for redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings released veteran cornerback Joejuan Williams on Tuesday, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. The former Vanderbilt Commodore was a second-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2019 but has not found his footing in the NFL. Across 42 games with the Patriots, Vikings, and Bears, Williams has collected 46 tackles (32 solo), 10 pass deflections, and no interceptions. The 26-year-old signed a reserve/future contract on January 8 with the Vikings, but he is being let go after the team selected Oregon cornerback Khyree Jackson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals signed rookie third-round wide receiver Jermaine Burton and rookie fourth-round tight end Erick All to their rookie deals on Tuesday. With Joe Burrow at quarterback and Tee Higgins potentially playing his last season with the Bengals in 2024, both first-year pass-catchers are on the fantasy football radar in redraft and dynasty leagues. In Burton's final two collegiate seasons at Alabama, he caught 79 passes for 1,475 yards and 15 touchdowns. With 4.45 speed, he could act as a field stretcher and start in three-wide sets right away in Zac Taylor's offense. All, who caught 21 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns in Iowa's lifeless offense last year, will look to push Mike Gesicki for the TE1 job in his rookie campaign.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders released quarterback Jake Fromm on Tuesday, according to NFL.com. The former Georgia Bulldog was a fifth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills and spent the last two seasons with Washington after a brief stint with the New York Giants. Despite being in the league for four seasons, he has thrown just 60 passes, completing 27 of them for 210 yards and one touchdown to go along with three interceptions. The Commanders signed Marcus Mariota this offseason and added rookies Jayden Daniels and Sam Hartman to their quarterback room, so Fromm became expendable. The 25-year-old is unlikely to earn playing time anytime soon barring a slew of injuries around the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) is not practicing on Tuesday, according to head coach Raheem Morris. The two-time Pro Bowl selection and one-time All-Pro suffered a torn ACL in the Week 8 loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, so he'll likely be eased into action this offseason and beyond. Jarrett has compiled three seasons of at least six sacks, but he only charted 1.5 sacks in eight games last season. Atlanta's pass rush has been an issue over the last few years, and the organization opted to draft quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick instead of a defender, so Jarrett's early-season availability and effectiveness will be key as the Falcons look to contend for a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins under center.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jared Goff and the Lions have agreed on a four-year contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: A relative afterthought in the Matthew Stafford trade from years ago, Goff has had a career resurgence with the Lions. He'll get $170 million guaranteed and makes him the highest paid player in franchise history. Goff is coming off a season with more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, making him a reliable low-end QB1. While he offers little as a runner, Goff is about as stable as they come and makes for a solid veteran add for a dynasty team as a low-end starter or very solid QB2.
Dynasty | The Bills have signed free agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Dynasty Analysis: The Bills look like they're going to attack the post-Stefon Diggs era with a "WR by committee" approach that could feature the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool and now MVS. While Coleman remains the only blue chip player on that list, someone else is likely to emerge. Valdes-Scantling is likely no more than a roster clogger-level player moving forward but this development is enough to keep him on the dynasty radar.
Despite requesting a trade this offseason, Cincinnati Bengals star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson confirmed his desire to play for the team in 2024 after Tuesday's offseason workout. "That's a no-brainer," Hendrickson said. "I mean, I love this team. I'm in great shape. It's good to see the guys." The three-time Pro Bowler rejoined the team this week for the voluntary offseason workout program. The 29-year-old was second in the NFL in sacks in 2023 with 17.5 and initially asked to be traded when the Bengals didn't reward him with a long-term contract extension. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson has been one of the league's best edge rushers since he was signed by Cincy in 2021 on a four-year deal worth $60 million. He has 40.5 total sacks in that time, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
