Lineup Prep: Divisional Round
Wed Jan 17 9:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
LaPorta is getting healthier
Here is to hoping that the playoff games are better this weekend. For the most part, the games last week just weren’t very good unless you were a fans of those teams. I’m hoping for some barn burners this week, going down to the last drive. It will make for a lot better viewing.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I like a snow/cold game as much as anyone, but it does kind of stink for the teams involved when playing in the playoffs. You play all season in pretty normal conditions, but have to deal with brutal conditions when the playoffs hit. Again, I love to watch a snow game, but it probably would be better for the playoffs if teams didn’t have to deal with the awful winter weather. Oh well.
The Josh Allen experience is truly wild. He can drive you crazy with the turnovers and mistakes, but when he is playing well, Allen is really the best in the game. He showed that last week. Allen is just so tough defend, especially when he is running the ball more. The Bills kind of took that out of the game plan early in the season, but brought it back more after changing offensive coordinators. The change in philosophy has been a huge spark to the Bills offense.
I’m really excited about Jameson Williams next season. The Lions are starting to use him a lot more in normal routes than just as a deep threat. He is showing his ability as a route runner lately. Williams has a chance for a breakout season as long as he is healthy and playing. The big issue for Williams to start his career is just staying on the field. The ability is there for huge things. I’m ready to see what he can do next year.
It will be interesting to see what the Vikings do with their quarterback position this offseason. I almost think Kirk Cousins will be back and the team will draft a quarterback to learn from him. That might make the most sense and keep star receiver Justin Jefferson happy. This is one situation I’m going to keep a really close eye on this offseason because it has a lot of fantasy implications.
If I’m the Bears, I’m trading that No. 1 overall pick and loading up on more draft picks to surround Justin Fields with better talent. I know Caleb Williams is a stud and could be a fantastic pro, but Fields is no slouch. He made strides this year, especially late in the season. I think the franchise would do better to take advantage of the hype surround Williams and get a huge haul in a trade.
I don’t see Bill Belichick going to a team that doesn’t already have a franchise quarterback. You hear him interviewing with Atlanta, but that situation just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. I think he is going to go to a team that already has a top quarterback, so he doesn’t have to deal with the issues he had with the Patriots after losing Tom Brady.
And speaking of coaches, you have to wonder what is going to happen in Dallas after their stunning early-round exit in the playoffs. Mike McCarthy has been great during the regular season, but owner Jerry Jones doesn’t care about regular season wins. Jones wants Super Bowl titles. I would not be surprised if McCarthy is relieved of his job in the coming days.
I really thought the Browns operated better with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback this season than Deshaun Watson. Flacco gave that passing game a spark and it produced huge numbers on a weekly basis. You have to think the Browns are really regretting going all in on Watson as their franchise quarterback. He certainly has not played near his past levels. The Browns really overpaid for Watson and could be feeling it for years to come.
News and Notes: The Bills released running back Leonard Fournette from the practice squad on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions. LaPorta was able to play last week and didn’t look quite 100 percent, but still found the end zone. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games and scores two straight. He should be even healthier this week, meaning his production could be even better. Plus, he has a great matchup against a bad Bucs pass defense. The Bucs allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers. McCaffrey is always a must start and hot play, but especially this week. He gets a Packers defense that is the worst out of all the remaining playoff teams against the run. Green Bay was 28th against the run in the regular season and allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. Green Bay allowed 200-plus rushing yards four times this season. We think McCaffrey is going to have a monster showing in this one, possibly pushing 200-plus total yards and 30 fantasy points.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers had a breakout season as the top target at receiver the Ravens. He played really well late in the season, having 20-plus fantasy points three of five games. He has scores four of five games. Flowers keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. Look for more success this week against the Texans in what should be a high-scoring game. The Texans have allowed 265-plus passing yards three of six games.
COLD PLAYS
Devin Singletary, RB, Texans. Singletary had a solid season, emerging as the starter for the Texans. He has scores two straight games and has been consistent for the Texans, especially the second half of the season. Singletary has a really tough matchup to keep up his solid play this week, though, playing the Ravens. Baltimore was 14th against the run during the regular season, allowing 109.4-rushing yards per game. Houston might need to rely on C.J. Stroud and the passing game moire than Singletary if they hope to have much offensive success.
David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery found the end zone again last week, giving him four straight games with a touchdown. He still hasn’t topped 65-rushing yards in any of those games and has just three catches during that stretch. He might be a scary play this week against a Bucs defense that allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season. The Bucs allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and were fifth overall against the run.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It is so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but his numbers down the stretch haven’t been great for fantasy owners. He has just one touchdown each of his last three games. He has been pretty mediocre for fantasy teams. It might be more of the same this week against the Bills on the road. Buffalo has really played better defense down the stretch and allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season.
SLEEPERS
Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield had a great opener in the playoffs, hitting the 300-yard mark while scoring three touchdowns. Mayfield has multiple touchdowns five of six games. He has three three-touchdown games during that stretch. He has a great matchup against the Lions, a team that allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season. Look for Mayfield to keep it going this week.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Packers. Wicks scored another touchdown last week, giving him scores three straight games. He keeps finding the end zone, making him a top red-zone target for the Packers. He could score again this week in a game the Packers are likely throwing often and playing from behind. This could lead to even more targets for Wicks. He could be a sneaky play for fantasy owners.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir scored his third touchdown of the season last week. He has 12-plus fantasy points two straight games. He has at least three catches four consecutive games. Shakir is getting more work with Gabe Davis out and playing well in an expanded role. Shakir has a chance for another solid game this week in what should be a high-scoring game with the Chiefs.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Packers/49ers, Bucs/Lions.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Kirk Cousins takes field with Falcons, moving past injury, draft shocker
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- Browns S Rodney McLeod to retire after 2024 season
- Commanders release QB Jake Fromm
- Bills, Dolphins to meet in first 2024 Amazon Prime Video game
- 49ers sign OT Chris Hubbard
- Bills sign WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to 1-year contract
- Oh, snap: Jets, Aaron Rodgers open on MNF again
- Cowboys, Browns and Brady featured in Week 1 matchup
- Lions award Jared Goff four-year, $212M extension
- Bucs S Antoine Winfield gets record 4-year, $84.1M extension
- Saints reach deal with veteran G Lucas Patrick
- Chiefs to open 2024 season vs. Ravens
- Former Chargers GM A.J. Smith dies at 75
- Pats coach Jerod Mayo says QB Drake Maye will 'put the work in'
- Patriots name Eliot Wolf executive VP of player personnel
- Bill Belichick gets weekly spot on ESPN's 'ManningCast'
- Broncos first-round QB Bo Nix signs rookie contract
- Cardinals, WR Zay Jones agree on one-year deal
- Aidan O'Connell is early leader in Raiders' QB competition
The Paur Report
Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd signed his rookie deal, the organization announced on Tuesday. Lloyd, who was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, is expected to see a role in Year 1 behind Josh Jacobs in the emerging Packers' offense. Although the 23-year-old didn't have the most productive career at South Carolina and Southern California, he flashed explosiveness in 2023 with 7.1 yards per carry and 17.8 yards per reception. His 4.46 forty-yard-dash time at 220 pounds likely cemented himself as a Day 2 draft choice, and running backs taken before Round 4 are usually given a fair shot at competing for touches. He should beat out AJ Dillon at some point in 2024, making him a high-end handcuff RB for redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings released veteran cornerback Joejuan Williams on Tuesday, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. The former Vanderbilt Commodore was a second-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2019 but has not found his footing in the NFL. Across 42 games with the Patriots, Vikings, and Bears, Williams has collected 46 tackles (32 solo), 10 pass deflections, and no interceptions. The 26-year-old signed a reserve/future contract on January 8 with the Vikings, but he is being let go after the team selected Oregon cornerback Khyree Jackson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals signed rookie third-round wide receiver Jermaine Burton and rookie fourth-round tight end Erick All to their rookie deals on Tuesday. With Joe Burrow at quarterback and Tee Higgins potentially playing his last season with the Bengals in 2024, both first-year pass-catchers are on the fantasy football radar in redraft and dynasty leagues. In Burton's final two collegiate seasons at Alabama, he caught 79 passes for 1,475 yards and 15 touchdowns. With 4.45 speed, he could act as a field stretcher and start in three-wide sets right away in Zac Taylor's offense. All, who caught 21 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns in Iowa's lifeless offense last year, will look to push Mike Gesicki for the TE1 job in his rookie campaign.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders released quarterback Jake Fromm on Tuesday, according to NFL.com. The former Georgia Bulldog was a fifth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills and spent the last two seasons with Washington after a brief stint with the New York Giants. Despite being in the league for four seasons, he has thrown just 60 passes, completing 27 of them for 210 yards and one touchdown to go along with three interceptions. The Commanders signed Marcus Mariota this offseason and added rookies Jayden Daniels and Sam Hartman to their quarterback room, so Fromm became expendable. The 25-year-old is unlikely to earn playing time anytime soon barring a slew of injuries around the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) is not practicing on Tuesday, according to head coach Raheem Morris. The two-time Pro Bowl selection and one-time All-Pro suffered a torn ACL in the Week 8 loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, so he'll likely be eased into action this offseason and beyond. Jarrett has compiled three seasons of at least six sacks, but he only charted 1.5 sacks in eight games last season. Atlanta's pass rush has been an issue over the last few years, and the organization opted to draft quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick instead of a defender, so Jarrett's early-season availability and effectiveness will be key as the Falcons look to contend for a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins under center.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jared Goff and the Lions have agreed on a four-year contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: A relative afterthought in the Matthew Stafford trade from years ago, Goff has had a career resurgence with the Lions. He'll get $170 million guaranteed and makes him the highest paid player in franchise history. Goff is coming off a season with more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, making him a reliable low-end QB1. While he offers little as a runner, Goff is about as stable as they come and makes for a solid veteran add for a dynasty team as a low-end starter or very solid QB2.
Dynasty | The Bills have signed free agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Dynasty Analysis: The Bills look like they're going to attack the post-Stefon Diggs era with a "WR by committee" approach that could feature the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool and now MVS. While Coleman remains the only blue chip player on that list, someone else is likely to emerge. Valdes-Scantling is likely no more than a roster clogger-level player moving forward but this development is enough to keep him on the dynasty radar.
Despite requesting a trade this offseason, Cincinnati Bengals star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson confirmed his desire to play for the team in 2024 after Tuesday's offseason workout. "That's a no-brainer," Hendrickson said. "I mean, I love this team. I'm in great shape. It's good to see the guys." The three-time Pro Bowler rejoined the team this week for the voluntary offseason workout program. The 29-year-old was second in the NFL in sacks in 2023 with 17.5 and initially asked to be traded when the Bengals didn't reward him with a long-term contract extension. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson has been one of the league's best edge rushers since he was signed by Cincy in 2021 on a four-year deal worth $60 million. He has 40.5 total sacks in that time, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
The back-to-back Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs will begin their attempt for the first-ever three-peat in 2024 when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the league's annual prime-time season opener, which will be played on Thursday, Sept. 5. It will be a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Chiefs won 17-10 before beating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. The Chiefs will then face the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead in Week 2. The Week 1 matchup against Baltimore features two of the game's top QBs in Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP the last two years, and Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP. Mahomes has gone 4-1 in the matchup against Jackson, including in the playoffs. KC has opened as a 2.5-point favorite and are 2-1 in the NFL kickoff game since it was introduced in 2002.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson (ankle) and Jase McClellan (foot) were not at practice on Tuesday at organized team activities. It's notable, but shouldn't affect Robinson's 2024 fantasy draft stock. The 22-year-old former first-rounder is expected to be back on the field for the team's mandatory minicamp. As long as Robinson's ankle isn't bothering him once he returns to practice, it should be a non-factor by the time the 2024 regular season begins. Now that quarterback Kirk Cousins is in town, Robinson will be even more attractive as a high-end RB1 in fantasy. The former eighth overall pick in 2023 out of Texas is a do-it-all back that had 976 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 214 rushing attempts in his rookie season, adding 58 receptions for 487 yards and another four TDs in 17 games (16 starts) in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills signed veteran wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a one-year deal worth up to $4.5 million on Tuesday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. MVS is no stranger to playing with elite quarterbacks between his time with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, and he'll now be in line to catch passes from Josh Allen in Buffalo. The 2018 fifth-round pick out of South Florida has not posted monster fantasy football numbers, but he has spike-week upside thanks to his field-stretching speed. That said, he's likely going to be more useful in "real life" compared to fantasy football based on his production profile thus far. In six NFL seasons, the 29-year-old has not eclipsed 690 yards or six touchdowns in a single season. Last year, he caught just 21 passes for 315 yards and one touchdown in 16 games. He's an interesting late-round flyer in best ball formats, but he might be a wasted roster spot in traditional leagues. MVS will compete with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel for snaps in 2024, as second-round rookie Keon Coleman should be a locked-in starter.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos signed free-agent wide receiver Phillip Dorsett and cornerback Quinton Newsome to undisclosed deals on Monday, according to the team. In corresponding moves, the Broncos waived punter Nik Constantinou and receiver Lincoln Victor. Dorsett was released by Denver last Friday after initially signing with the team's practice squad before the 2023 season. The 31-year-old former 29th overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts in 2015 out of Miami was elevated just twice during the regular season last year and was unable to reel in any of his three targets. In his eight NFL seasons, Dorsett has a total of 151 catches for 2,001 yards and 12 touchdowns in 94 games (20 starts). He'll serve as receiver depth for the Broncos this summer behind Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Marvin Mims Jr., rookie Troy Franklin and Tim Patrick.
From RotoBaller
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, free-agent wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling made a stop in Buffalo on Monday night. The wideout had a recent visit with the Chargers, although it appears nothing came of it. MVS hasn't been productive in years, and he finished the 2023-24 campaign by recording career lows in catches (21), receiving yards (315), and touchdowns (one). However, the Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs this offseason, so Valdes-Scantling could work his way up the depth chart. Yet, he'll need to prove his value to fantasy managers no matter where he signs, which won't come until he has at least a few decent performances.
From RotoBaller
Updating a previous report, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff's four-year deal includes an option in the fourth year, per source on Monday, May 13.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chiefs) is meeting with the Buffalo Bills Monday, May 13, according to a source.
From TheHuddle
The Denver Broncos continued voluntary offseason workouts on Monday. However, the team remains without wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who continues to work out at his residence in Florida. The veteran has two years left on a four-year, $60 million extension, but has made it clear he wants a raise. He also requested a trade, although the team is apparently not looking to move him. Of course, there will be updates on the situation moving ahead. Yet, it won't be as much of a concern until the summer when Denver begins training camp. With that said, several teams will monitor things, especially with Sutton coming off a massive year, which included a career-high 10 touchdowns. But if he stays with the Broncos, his fantasy outlook is directly related to how Bo Nix and Zach Wilson look heading into the 2024-25 campaign.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent WR Phillip Dorsett (Broncos) signed with the Denver Broncos Monday, May 13. The team also signed undrafted free-agent CB Quinton Newsome (Nebraska). Terms of the contracts were not disclosed.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff agreed to a four-year $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. Lions general manager Brad Holmes said the two sides were working on an extension last week, and they evidently worked quickly and got the deal done. The 2016 No. 1 overall pick by the Los Angeles Rams has been fantastic since being dealt to Detroit along with draft picks for Matthew Stafford. He led Detroit to a playoff win for the first time since 1991 last year, and he's posted 12,258 yards, 78 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions through his first 48 games with the organization. He's now under contract through the 2028 season and will remain a fringe QB1 option in fantasy football as long as his offensive weapons remain on the roster. Given his job security and upside in Detroit's offense, he should be viewed as a strong dynasty QB2 in Superflex formats.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff agreed to terms on a four-year contract extension with the Lions Monday, May 13, worth $212 million, according to sources. The deal includes $170 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Spin: Goff will be the starting quarterback for the Lions for the foreseeable future and is coming off a terrific 2023 season. He could be a possible low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback in deeper leagues but probably will be a No. 2 quarterback in most standard leagues that can also be a starting option against favorable matchups.
From TheHuddle
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson was spotted at voluntary offseason activities on Monday despite his recent request to be traded. It's a notable development considering the practices and workouts are entirely voluntary, but it's too early to assume it means he wants to remain with the team if he does not receive a new contract. The 2017 third-round pick by the New Orleans Saints had a monster season in 2023, racking up a Bengals' franchise record 17.5 sacks. He is the 11th-highest-paid edge rusher (average salary) and is entering the final year of his four-year, $60 million contract he signed as a free agent in 2021. The 29-year-old's situation will be worth monitoring this offseason, as there will likely be no shortage of interested suitors if the team is willing to listen to offers. With quarterback Joe Burrow already signed to a $275 million contract, and wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins seeking a new deals, Hendrickson may be expendable.
From RotoBaller
