Pitching Primer: Week 18

Fri Jul 23 1:38pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

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Means has good value this week


Week 18 has the potential to be a wild one in baseball with the MLB trade deadline set for Friday. That could mean several changes to team’s projected starting rotations, but as things currently stand, let’s discuss five two-start pitchers and what their matchups could mean for fantasy baseball.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox: at KC, vs. CLE

The White Sox might not be looking to make any changes to their rotation given how well their starters have pitched. While Cease’s 4.21 ERA this season is actually higher than his mark last year, that doesn’t illustrate the entire story. His FIP is 3.73, which is by far the best mark of his young career. Also, he’s missing plenty of bats, leaving him with a 29.5 percent strikeout rate.

This has the potential to be a great week for Cease given that the Royals and the Indians both rank inside the bottom-10 in OPS in baseball. The Indians did touch him up for six runs over 3.1 innings earlier this season, but in his two starts versus the Royals, he allowed two runs (one earned) and recorded nine strikeouts over 10.1 innings. Be sure to lock him into your fantasy starting lineups.

John Means, Baltimore Orioles: vs. MIA, at DET

Means spent more than a month on the IL with a shoulder issue before returning Tuesday against the Rays. His first start back didn’t go well with him allowing five runs over five innings. Even with that poor outing, he has a 2.72 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP for the season. With that being said, some regression could be in the cards for him given that his FIP is much higher at 4.42.

As bad as Means was against the Rays, he has a favorable opportunity to bounce back against the Marlins, who have the worst OPS in baseball. The Tigers have shown improvement at the plate lately, but they have struck out the second-most times in baseball, so Means could even provide added contributions in that category. Don’t be surprised if Means puts forth two excellent stat lines.

Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox: vs. TOR, at TB

It’s been a rough stretch recently for Pivetta, who has a 5.35 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over his last seven starts. One of his main problems was that he allowed 10 home runs over 38 2/3 innings. Prior to that, he had allowed five home runs over his first 64 1/3 innings. He’s allowed 1.6 HR/9 for his career, so his latest struggles aren’t exactly anything new.

As good as Pivetta was earlier in this season, he should probably be on your bench this week. The Blue Jays have one of the best lineups in baseball and have given Pivetta trouble, scoring 15 runs against him across 16 2/3 innings in three previous meetings this season. The Rays also have a potent offense, scoring the seventh-most runs in baseball. They even bolstered their lineup by acquiring Nelson Cruz on Thursday.

Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds: at CHC, at NYM

Miley is someone to keep an eye on as the trade deadline approaches. The Reds’ bullpen has been awful and now Nick Castellanos (wrist) is hurt, which might eliminate them from making a run at the playoffs. If they were to become sellers, plenty of teams would likely be interested in Miley. He’s been one of the rocks of their starting rotation, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 3.26 FIP over 17 starts.

While there is a chance that Miley is traded, he’s still probably worth starting this week. The Cubs have already started their fire sale and will likely move more players as the deadline approaches. The Mets are set up to be buyers, but their lineup is compromised right now with Francisco Lindor (oblique) on the IL. They also have a left-handed heavy lineup, which should help Miley given that he has limited lefties to a .287 wOBA for his career.

Brett Anderson, Milwaukee Brewer: at PIT, at ATL

If you’re looking for strikeouts in a potential streaming option, you likely won’t find many with Anderson. He only has a 14.2 percent strikeout rate this season and a 16.1 percent mark for his career. He also doesn’t provide the Pirates with much length, logging five or fewer innings in 12 of his 14 starts. On the bright side, he’s only allowed 1.3 HR/9 and he has good control, leaving him with a 6.9 percent walk rate.

If you need help with your ratios, taking a chance on Anderson might not be crazy. The Pirates have the fourth-worst OPS in baseball, so Anderson could start off the week on a high note. The only other time that he faced them this season, he allowed one unearned run over seven innings. While the Braves will certainly be a tougher foe, their lineup is compromised with Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) out for the season.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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