By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
RealTime Fantasy Sports
TOP FIVE OFFSEASON MOVES
This is our list of top-five offseason moves. These are the top moves made during the offseason, impacting fantasy teams for the coming year.
5. First up is running back Mike Gillislee signs with Patriots. This is a little bit under the radar but Gillislee had a breakout year last season in a limited role Bills. And now he heads to one of the best offenses in the game with a chance to start. And even if he doesn't start, he should get the goal-line carries in this explosive offense. His stock is rising.
4. Running back Adrian Peterson signs with Saints is No. 4 on the list. You aren't sure what Peterson has left in the tank and he is going to likely share carries with his new team, but you can never count him out. He was the best back in the game just a few years back, so don't be surprised if he comes out with something to prove this year.
3. Alshon Jeffery signs with Eagles. The Eagles finally got a legit No. 1 target for Carson Wentz. Jeffery has a chance to produce big numbers in this pass-first offense. The key for Jeffery will be staying healthy, which has been an issue in recent years.
2. Just missing out on the top spot is Terrelle Pryor signs with Redskins. Pryor had a breakout season last year and now heads to a much better offense that is going to air it out a lot. Pryor can improve on last year and is capable of being a top-10 fantasy receiver.
1. Brandin Cooks is traded to Patriots this offseason. The Patriots added another top offensive weapon to the mix, trading for Cooks. He has a chance to get a ton of targets in this pass-first offense and have maybe his best season to date. Cooks is a deep threat that Patriots haven't had in a few seasons.
TOP FIVE BREAKOUTS
This list is the top-five breakout candidates. These are guys ready to take their games to a new level this season.
5. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts. Moncrief was injured last year but still managed to score seven touchdowns in nine games. He is a top starter in the Colts pass-first offense. As long as he is healthy, he can be a top weekly producer for fantasy teams. Moncrief even has a chance to be an elite fantasy receiver if all goes well for him. His size makes him the top red-zone threat at receiver for the Colts.
4. Jameis Winston, QB, Bucs. Winston was right on the cusp of being a solid No. 1 fantasy quarterback last season, but is ready to up his game this year. He has more weapons to work with offensively and is another year older. Winston has the potential to be a top-five fantasy quarterback, having elite receivers and tight ends to work with in the passing game.
3. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns. Crowell is yet to have a 1,000-yard rushing season but seems setup for that this year. He is the unquestioned starter at running back, rushing behind an offensive line that should be improved. Crowell is a three-down back that does well as a rusher and receiver. He could be a top-10 fantasy back, topping 1,500 total yards and double-digit scores.
2. Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. Mariota made big strides his second season in the league but is capable of more, especially with better options to work with in the passing game this year. He has a running game that takes the pressure off of him, but Mariota is going to get more chances to air it out this year. The Titans could be one of the top overall offenses in the game with Mariota leading the way.
1. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Hill had a solid rookie season, scoring nine touchdowns offensively. He is going to be the No. 1 receiver for the Chiefs this year, though, and has a chance to really improve his overall numbers from his rookie season. Remember, he caught 61 passes last year. Those numbers could be in the 90-plus range season in an offense that should heavily target him. Hill is ready to be a fantasy superstar.
TOP FIVE BUSTS
Here are our top-five busts for the coming season. These are guys that are likely to disappoint or fail to live up to expectations.
5. Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots. Cooks moves from one top offense to another. He won't be the first option in this passing game, though. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are the top two targets for the Patriots. Cooks is going to be a big threat for the Patriots and have some really big games, but counting on him to be a top No. 1 fantasy receiver is likely a reach. He is going to have a hard time getting all the targets of the last few seasons with the Saints. Cooks is going to have a tough time living up to where he is currently getting drafted by fantasy teams.
4. Eddie Lacy, RB, Seahawks. Lacy gets a fresh start with a new team, a team that actually likes to run the ball. Lacy still has plenty of question marks for the coming year, though. He has two very good backs pushing for playing time. And his fitness remains a concern. Will Lacy be in shape for the coming year? If not, playing time could be an issue. A big rebound season in Seattle likely isn't in the cards for Lacy. He might have a few good games but likely will be hit or miss many weeks, especially if you consider he likely won't get many chances in the passing game.
3. Doug Martin, RB, Bucs. Martin had a huge season two seasons back but been a bust there of the last four years. He has fewer than 500-rushing yards three of four seasons. Martin has potential if all is well for him but is a big risk for fantasy teams. You just don't know the back that is going to show up this year. There are already reports talking Martin up for this season but don't get caught up in the hype. His numbers don't lie the last few seasons.
2. Brandon Marshall, WR, Giants. Marshall is 33 years old and has fewer than 800 yards two of the last three seasons. He moves to a much better passing game this season but also has a lot more to compete with for targets. He could have a few big games along the way but will play second fiddle to Odell Beckham all season. Expecting Marshall to reach his 100-catch totals of past seasons is a reach for fantasy teams.
1. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers. Hyde gets a new coaching staff this season that could be a boost to the running game. Unfortunately, a new coaching staff could also mean changes at the running back spot. Hyde is going to be pushed for playing time by rookie Joe Williams. Plus, his running style might not be a great fit for the 49ers new offense. Williams is more of a big-play back that could be a better fit for the offense. Hyde seems setup to get less work this season and could even lose his starting job, especially if the 49ers are losing again.
TOP FIVE OVERVALUED
Below is our list of the top-five overvalued players for the coming season. These are guys that are probably going too high in drafts right now. Proceed with caution.
5. Devante Parker, WR, Dolphins. Much like the last few seasons, there continues to be a lot of hype for Parker to have that breakout year this season. Will it happen? It is possible. But for us, grabbing him before established players like Randall Cobb, John Brown and Jordan Matthews is a bit of a stretch. At least those players have enjoyed at least one or more big seasons. Parker still has a lot to prove, so his ADP of 89 seems a bit low.
4. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers. McCaffrey is as talented as they come. He is a playmaker that will help as a receiver and runner. But he isn't guaranteed to start this year for the Panthers and likely won't get the goal-line carries. He has a current ADP of 37, meaning you have to use a third or fourth round pick to grab him. That seems a little rich for a player that could lack some scores and rushing yardage numbers.
3. Martellus Bennett, TE, Packers. Name the last Packers tight end to help fantasy teams. Still waiting. Still waiting. Yeah, it has been some time. So the addition of Bennett might be a good one for the Packers passing attack, but doesn't seem likely to make a big difference for fantasy teams. He has an ADP of 101 and is getting selected before players on teams that have used the tight end a lot more often (Eric Ebron and Coby Fleener).
2. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. Henry will continue to play second fiddle to DeMarco Murray this year. If Murray were to get injured, his value would go through the roof. But until that happens. Henry isn't likely to be much of a help to fantasy teams. So seeing him with an ADP of 93 is a little baffling, getting picked before starters like Frank Gore, Terrance West and Robert Kelley.
1. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. The Bengals have a history of bringing their rookies along slowly, so don't expect it to be any different for Mixon. There is a chance he opens the season as the starter but nothing is guaranteed right now. He still has Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard to compete with for playing time. Mixon is capable of being a fantasy star but that doesn't seem likely to happen this year. His current ADP of 46 is too rich for our blood.
TOP FIVE LATE-ROUND FLYERS
This is our list of top-five late-round flyers. These are guys to take a chance on very late in drafts. They could surprise for the coming season.
5. Marquise Goodwin, WR, 49ers. The 49ers are going to throw the ball, especially if you consider they could be playing from behind often. Goodwin is expected to start and could get a lot of targets in this offense. Goodwin hasn't lived up to his potential to date but maybe a fresh start will get him going. Plus, he might be a better fit for this offense than he was with the Bills.
4. Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons. Hooper did not have a big regular rookie season, but caught a touchdown pass in the Super Bowl and started to have a bigger role offensively as the season progressed. He will be the starter from day one in an explosive offense. He could be worth some spot starts for fantasy teams in year two. His targets should increase.
3. Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos. C.J. Anderson is the starter and Jamaal Charles was signed during the offseason, but don't forget about Booker. He might be the most explosive player of the bunch and could be a top pass-catching back in this offense. Plus, he might be an injury away from starting in a run-first Broncos offense.
2. Ted Ginn, WR, Saints. For some reason, this seems to be getting overlooked. Ginn was signed by the Saints this offseason and will serve as the No. 3 receiver in the Saints pass-first offense. He might be hit or miss some weeks, but has big-game potential in this offense. He is going to get weekly chances to stretch the field.
1. Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles. Wentz started out hot last year and fizzled in a hurry down the stretch. The quarterback position is vey deep this year but Wentz is worth a shot as a No. 2 late in drafts. The Eagles really improved at receiver during the offseason and Wentz is another year older in a pass-friendly offense. Don't be surprised if he takes a big step forward this year.
TOP FIVE ROOKIES
These are our top-five rookies for the coming season. Rookies are never a sure thing but these guys could make a big impact their first year in the league.
5. Mike Williams, WR, Chargers. Williams was the first receiver in the draft picked and for good reason. He is a big, physical receiver that should start from day one in the Chargers pass-first offense. He could lead all rookies in yards and touchdowns, serving as a top red-zone target for the team. Williams does have some injury concerns for the coming season but the potential of big things is there as long as he is playing.
4. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon has a good shot to open the season as the starter for the Bengals. He likely will lose out on the goal-line carries and some other work to Jeremy Hill, but should get his work on a daily basis. He has the makeup of a three-down back that could post big total yardage numbers.
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers. McCaffrey might not start for the Panthers his rookie year, but he is going to be a huge part of the offense. The Panthers will find a way to get him involved on a weekly basis as a runner and receiver. He has big-time total yardage potential and could be a game-changer for the Panthers offense.
2. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings. Cook is another rookie back with a good chance to start. He is a three-down back that sets up his blocks well and makes a lot of plays in the open field. The Vikings are a team that likes to run the ball, which bodes well for Cook to post big numbers as a rookie. The one concern for Cook is losing out on the goal-line work to Latavius Murray.
1. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars. Fournette finally gives the Jaguars a legit starting running back. He has little competition for carries and should carry the load from the start of the season. Fournette also will get the goal-line work for what should be a good Jaguars offense. He is setup to be a difference maker for fantasy teams from day one of his firstname.lastname@example.org