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One and Done - FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Drew Lock Aug 23 7:00pm ET

Denver Broncos head coach Vic Fangio said it's a possibility that rookie quarterback Drew Lock (thumb) begins the season on Injured Reserve. Lock suffered a severely sprained right thumb during a sack early in the third quarter of the preseason game on Monday against the 49ers. He'll be limited to conditioning work the remainder of the preseason. With Lock banged up, Kevin Hogan and Brett Rypien will battle for the backup job behind Joe Flacco to start the year. Lock could be forced to miss half of his rookie season, but he's still a solid player to own in dynasty/keeper leagues.

From RotoBaller

Darwin Thompson Aug 23 7:00pm ET

Kansas City Chiefs running back Darwin Thompson is reportedly getting goal-line work with the first team offense. It appears that this point that Thompson has passed Carlos Hyde on the depth chart. Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, and Thompson are expected to be the backs for Week 1. Hyde doesn't play special teams or really offer the Chiefs much besides being a veteran. He may end on another team, but he doesn't have much fantasy value on the Chiefs. Thompson is someone to strongly consider at the end of most drafts.

From RotoBaller

Derwin James Aug 23 6:50pm ET

Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James (foot) had successful surgery on Thursday to fix a stress reaction of the fifth metatarsal in his right foot and will be placed on Injured Reserve to begin the season. James was an All-Pro and was elected to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season after totaling 75 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks and three interceptions in 2018. His absence into November will make the Bolts secondary more vulnerable, but LA's defense/special teams remains an intriguing unit to own in fantasy regardless.

From RotoBaller

Ezekiel Elliott Aug 23 5:10pm ET

Dallas Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones is confident that the team will strike a deal with running back Ezekiel Elliott before Week 1 against the Giants. The Cowboys have had an offer on the table for nearly three weeks that would make Elliott the second-highest paid back ahead of Le'Veon Bell's $13.125 million average and behind Todd Gurley's $14.375 million average. Elliott's draft stock has slipped slightly because of his holdout, but he remains RotoBaller's No. 6 overall player and should still be taken in the first round of drafts. If he locks up an extension before Week 1, Elliott will immediately become a candidate to go first overall alongside Saquon Barkley.

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Equanimeous St. Brown Aug 23 5:10pm ET

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown (ankle) suffered a high ankle sprain in the preseason game on Thursday night against the Raiders and is likely to be out four to six weeks, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. X-rays came back negative on his ankle. St. Brown wasn't much of a target to begin with in standard-sized leagues after catching 21 passes for 328 yards and no touchdowns in 12 games in his rookie season. The 22-year-old are running a new offense under a new head coach this year, so St. Brown will be behind when he returns. His injury should allow the likes of Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow and Trevor Davis to get more opportunities.

From RotoBaller

Marquise Brown Aug 23 5:00pm ET

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown caught three passes for 17 yards in his NFL debut Thursday night. "My expectation was to not make any mistakes and catch every ball that was thrown at me," Brown told BaltimoreRavens.com. Brown caught the first ball of the game, a seven-yard throw from rookie quarterback Trace McSorley. He caught two other targets for five yards apiece and attempted rushing the ball, but was taken down for a loss of four yards. Brown performed without jitters and his explosiveness will be a key asset to the Ravens offense. His current ADP is in the 170s. After watching Hollywood take reps with the starting lineup on Thursday, he might worth stashing on your bench in the late rounds despite the Ravens run-first offense.

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David Moore Aug 23 5:00pm ET

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver David Moore (shoulder) suffered a shoulder injury in practice on Thursday, and head coach Pete Carroll said that Moore is not expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. Moore is getting a second opinion but isn't expected to require surgery, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. With rookie D.K. Metcalf also injured and not a lock to be ready for Week 1, Seattle's pass-catching group is thinning out quickly. It'll mean more looks for No. 1 wideout Tyler Lockett, as well as Jaron Brown, Keenan Reynolds and potentially Amara Darboh. Moore doesn't need to be drafted in standard-sized leagues, especially now that this injury clouds his early-season potential.

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Jacoby Brissett Aug 23 5:00pm ET

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett will not play in the preseason game on Saturday against the Bears, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The Colts are sitting the majority of their starters this weekend, and Brissett could be forced to start in Week 1 due to the injury to Andrew Luck (ankle). The Colts are playing it safe here, as they can't afford to lose another signal caller with the regular season fast approaching. It's looking more and more likely that Luck won't be ready for Week 1 against the Chargers, so Brissett would get the nod if that's the case. Because it's possible Luck could be back in Week 2, Brissett's fantasy appeal hasn't grown all that much.

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Michael Floyd Aug 23 4:50pm ET

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Michael Floyd caught three balls for 54 yards and a touchdown in Thursday night's preseason game against the Eagles. With a little less than seven minutes to go before the half, rookie quarterback Trace McSorley threw a 28-yard dime to Floyd for the Ravens second touchdown of the game. Floyd is entering his eighth year and fifth team in just three seasons. He is toeing the line for a roster spot against the likes of Seth Roberts, Jaleel Scottand Jaylen Smith. Floyd likely shouldn't be in your fantasy sights this season, but performances in preseason may earn him a spot on the depth chart.

From RotoBaller

Marcus Mariota Aug 23 4:40pm ET

Tennessee Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan will officially be suspended the first four games of the season after losing the appeal of his four-game ban for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Veteran swing tackle Dennis Kelly will take over the blind side to start the year, but it'll be a downgrade for the offensive line as a whole and for whoever is the team's starter in Week 1 between Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill.

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Dante Pettis Aug 23 2:20pm ET

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Dante Pettis believes hes finally playing explosive and consistent. Entering training camp as a presumed starter, Pettis has been pushed by rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd who have both turned heads. Meanwhile, Pettis has apparently lacked assertiveness. The 2018 second-round pick emerged at the end of last year, compiling 359 yards and four touchdowns in his final five games and becoming the clear second option behind tight end George Kittle. However, with more aerial weapons this season, Pettis needs to execute on his words to retain playing time. Still running with the starters, a reinvigorated Pettis seems like a safe backend WR2.

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Nick Mullens Aug 23 2:10pm ET

The competition between San Francisco 49ers quarterbacks CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens to earn backup duties will come down to final cuts. The two signal-callers both made starts in 2018 after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a torn ACL and present different skillsets to the offense. Beathard is a risk-taker with a longer tenure with the squad while Mullens has been more consistent. With Garoppolo likely playing the entire first half this Saturday, both players will need to share limited opportunities. The Niners apparently have no intention to keep three quarterbacks on the 53-man roster, and its likely both Beathard and Mullens would garner interest on the waiver wire if they were cut. While its a difficult decision, the team has until September 8 to make the call.

From RotoBaller

Nick Bosa Aug 23 2:00pm ET

Speaking Thursday, San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch indicated defensive end Nick Bosa (ankle) and cornerback Jason Verrett (ankle, Achilles) are 50-50 for Week 1. Both players suffered injuries two weeks ago and their absence would impair an already-shaky defensive unit. Bosa, the second overall pick in 2019, could emerge as a quality IDP candidate once hes healthy while Verrett likely wont make any fantasy impact this season.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Matthews Aug 23 1:50pm ET

Based on the praised heaped upon San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jordan Matthews recently, his chances of making the team appear bright. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has a lot of confidence in Matthews and believes they can win with [him]. Once an ascending talent with three straight 800-plus yard seasons to start his career, Matthews has tailed off over the past two years, collecting just 582 yards across 24 games. If he makes the squad, hell vie for snaps behind likely frontrunners Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuel and Trent Taylor. Matthews positive outlook comes at the expense of Kendrick Bourne, whos suffered drop issues this training camp. Unless he leaps the apparent starters, Matthews isnt a fantasy option if he survives final cuts.

From RotoBaller

Justice Hill Aug 23 1:30pm ET

Baltimore Ravens rookie running back Justice Hill gained a total of eight yards on seven carries in Thursday night's preseason game against Philadelphia. After rushing for 49 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore's Week 2 preseason matchup against Green Bay, Thursday night's Week 3 performance was unimpressive. While Hill's individual performance may not have been exciting, the entire Ravens backfield only rushed for 40 yards altogether. Hill is fighting for touches in a crowded backfield and needs to put together a good outing in next week's last preseason game to help solidify his No. 2 spot behind Mark Ingram. Hill is currently being drafted in the 12th round, but we have seen him go as early as the eighth round. Draft him as an Ingram handcuff with potential for an exponential amount of touches as the season goes on.

From RotoBaller

Trace McSorley Aug 23 1:20pm ET

Baltimore Ravens rookie quarterback Trace McSorley showed what he's made of in Thursday night's preseason game against the Eagles. After deciding to sit quarterbackLamar Jackson and with Robert Griffin III still out with an injured hand, head coach John Harbaugh gave McSorley the keys to start and finish the game. McSorley completed 19 of 28 passes for 208 yards and three total touchdowns. "I thought Trace did a heck of a job against those guys," Harbaugh told BaltimoreRavens.com. "I thought he was very poised. Made a lot of plays on the move, extended some plays and made them, made some good throws." The sixth-round pick had a performance that could help thrust him into the No. 2 spot behind Jackson. McSorley will go undrafted in the majority of leagues, but in the event that Jackson goes down this season, he poses as an exciting waiver wire pick-up, dependent on Baltimore's use for him.

From RotoBaller

Kahale Warring Aug 23 1:20pm ET

Houston Texans rookie tight end Kahale Warring remains in concussion protocol and has now missed two weeks of practice. Warring, a third round pick this year, looked like someone who could contribute some early during the first parts of offseason practices, but at this point, it would be a surprise to see him on the field much as a rookie, as his injury has caused him to miss valuable practice time at a position where rookies really, really need practice time. Warring is an interesting dynasty pick, but should be avoided in re-draft leagues.

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Mike Gesicki Aug 23 1:10pm ET

Second-year tight end Mike Gesicki was the offensive star in Miami's preseason victory over the Jaguars on Thursday night, hauling in all three of his targets for a total of 59 yards. This included a 29-yard catch-and-run to start off the second quarter with Gesicki catching a 16-yard pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick before scampering for another 13 yards. Seemingly still behind teammate Nick O'Leary on the depth chart, Gesicki is being drafted first of the two, even though neither should be on your fantasy radar until the Dolphins prove that their offense is anything but mediocre.

From RotoBaller

Ezekiel Elliott Aug 23 1:10pm ET

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has returned to Cabo to train. The Cowboys reportedly offered Elliott a deal to make him the second-highest paid running back in football, but his return to Mexico seems to suggest that Elliott wasn't happy with the deal. While he's still training and seems to be in game shape, the fact that the latest contract offer from Dallas didn't cause Elliott to budge is an admittedly bad sign for his chances of showing up for the start of the regular season. Elliott's upside is through the roof, but the risk continues to increase. He's still worth a first round pick, but it's understandable to take the safe bet with someone like David Johnson instead of drafting Elliott.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Miller Aug 23 1:10pm ET

Offensive line play is crucial to success in fantasy football, and the Houston Texans reportedly have an issue on their hands as they try to fill the most important offensive line position, left tackle. The team signed Matt Kalil this offseason, but the veteran hasn't been at practice since August 14th, which has opened a spot for Roderick Johnson to potentially claim the starting role. There's also a chance that rookie Tytus Howard could wind up manning the position. This uncertainty should worry fantasy owners who have Texans running back Lamar Miller, who'll need the line to create space for him to work in. This situation makes Miller a little riskier pick than he'd be if Houston had some consistency at the left tackle position.

From RotoBaller