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Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Derek Carr Aug 24 2:00pm ET

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is possibly in the best situation of his career heading into the 2019 regular season. With an improved offensive line, a brand new pass-catching corps which includes Antonio Brown, and a first-round rookie running back to hand the ball off to, Carr has the recipe to break out this season. The 28-year-old is also making strides in his second year under head coach Jon Gruden and his system. He's looked much more comfortable in year two, and has shown more assertiveness in his throws with the playmakers around him who can help aid his fantasy ceiling. Carr is a solid late-round QB2 to target in two-quarterback leagues and may find value in certain matchups in single-quarterback leagues throughout the season.

From RotoBaller

Jack Doyle Aug 24 1:50pm ET

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jack Doyle (hip) spent the offseason recovering from a hip injury that cut his 2018 season short. He's played with the starters sparingly thus far, as he's registered just 13 snaps, and those may be the last preseason snaps that we see of him. He has looked good when he was out there, and his focus is now on maintaining his health for the regular season. Currently going in the 13th round, Doyle remains a sneaky option as a backup tight end to give you good production throughout the year.

From RotoBaller

Hunter Renfrow Aug 24 1:40pm ET

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow is poised for an impactful rookie season with the Silver and Black in 2019. As the starting slot receiver, Renfrow will provide another set of reliable hands for short yardage passes while the defense focuses their attention primarily on Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. The Clemson product was renowned for his catching prowess at the college level and has carried it over to the NFL so far through his first preseason. Quarterback Derek Carr and head coach Jon Gruden have both praised Renfrow for his sneaky ability to get open and haul in anything thrown his way. Until we see how significant his role will actually be in this offense he remains a dynasty stash, but could find value in PPR redraft leagues as the season progresses.

From RotoBaller

Frank Reich Aug 24 1:40pm ET

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is likely out until the start of the season. Head coach Frank Reich stated that it would be unlikely to see any starters during the team's Week 3 matchup against the Chicago Bears. Hilton has not played any snaps during the team's first two preseason games, and he doesn't appear slated to play any this week. The strategy of keeping your best player's healthy when you can is usually the right decision. As he's not battling any injuries, this isn't an issue to be worried about as he will play when the games count.

From RotoBaller

Jacoby Brissett Aug 24 1:20pm ET

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is slated to start during the regular season if quarterback Andrew Luck (ankle) is unable to go. With that in mind, head coach Frank Reich stated that Brissett would not be playing during the team's Week 3 preseason matchup vs the Chicago Bears. Brissett is the team's starter until Luck is able to return, and they want to keep him healthy as much as they can.

From RotoBaller

Deon Yelder Aug 24 12:40pm ET

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Deon Yelder (ankle) is likely going to be sidelined for the rest of the preseason. He suffered an ankle injury, so the Chiefs are likely going to be cautious here. He was expected to be the No. 2 tight end behind Travis Kelce, but his status for Week 1 is up in the air. Yelder had four receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown in two preseason games. Blake Bell is going to be the second tight end in Kansas City with Yelder sidelined. Both players are having solid camps, so it's tough to pick between them. Neither will have great fantasy value behind Kelce.

From RotoBaller

Josh Jacobs Aug 24 10:10am ET

Oakland Raiders running back Josh Jacobs hasn't stolen many headlines this preseason, but he's proving he belongs on an NFL field. The first-round rookie had a flashy showing on one Week 2 drive, showing great vision and explosion through the line as he picked up 21 yards on four carries. The Raiders drafted Jacobs in hopes of him becoming an every-down back, and he's shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield with prowess as well as a good blocking ability during camp. How his role will play out during the season remains to be seen as Jalen Richard and his 68 catches from a year ago are still on the squad to take on the third down role. Jacobs may gradually work his way into the passing game more as the season progresses, but as of now, he remains a correctly priced RB2 in fantasy drafts.

From RotoBaller

Darren Waller Aug 24 10:00am ET

Oakland Raiders tight end Darren Waller hasn't stopped receiving praise from the coaching staff since OTA's in June as he continues to impress in the preseason. The rest of the football world also took notice in the latest episode of "Hard Knocks" which highlighted some of the 27-year-olds grabs as well as a surge of compliments from players and staff. As a former receiver in college, Waller has the potential to shine as a pass-catcher this season, filling in the void left by Jared Cook this offseason. The 6'6" 255 pounder won't see the immense volume left behind by Cook, but could turn into a valuable weapon as one of the team's top red zone threats and a reliable set of hands to throw to on third down. Waller's stock is only going up, but his stock remains in the late-rounds of drafts as a flier at fantasy's thinnest position.

From RotoBaller

Tyrell Williams Aug 24 9:40am ET

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Tyrell Williams is flying under the radar not only on fantasy draft boards, but on his own team. Among the new players on the offense this season, Williams hasn't received as much praise from the coaching staff as other route-runners (i.e. Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller), which is excellent news for his draft-day cost. The 27-year-old has still shown his knack for making big plays during training camp and made a spectacular catch in his only glimpse of action in preseason Week 2. Lining up on the opposite side of the field as Antonio Brown will also pay dividends with the defensive attention focused on number 84. Williams has averaged over 813 yards and five touchdowns per year over the last three season with the Chargers and could eclipse these marks in 2019 being the bona fide number two option in the passing game. He could become a steal at his current price tag in the early double-digit rounds.

From RotoBaller

Cole Beasley Aug 24 8:10am ET

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley had a game to forget on Friday. He only had one catch in the game, a 14-yard reception that resulted in a lost fumble. He was targeted just one other time in the game. Beasley figures to get a good amount of targets this season from quarterback Josh Allen as the two have reportedly developed a strong connection this offseason. However, the Bills' offense is still very much a work in progress. In PPR leagues, he's a fine late-round target, but in non-PPR formats, he can be left undrafted.

From RotoBaller

Zay Jones Aug 24 8:00am ET

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Zay Jones had his strongest outing of the preseason on Friday, catching three of four targets for 46 yards. He was second on the team in receiving yards behind running back T.J. Yeldon and tied for the team lead in receptions. Jones should get a good deal of work this year as the team's #2 outside receiver next to John Brown. However, the Bills don't figure to have too formidable of an offense and slot receiver Cole Beasley is likely to take a good chunk of targets away from Jones as well. Jones can remain undrafted in all standard fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

John Brown Aug 24 7:50am ET

Buffalo Bills wide receiver John Brown had two nice long gains in Friday's preseason game, an 18-yard catch and a 17-yard catch. He was only targeted three times in the game, finishing with two catches for 35 yards. He was the team's third-leading receiver behind T.J. Yeldon and Zay Jones. Brown has had a strong first offseason with the Bills and has cemented his place as the team's top receiver. He's a fantastic late-round target in fantasy drafts as top receivers are hard to come by once the first 40-or-so receivers are off the board.

From RotoBaller

Frank Gore Aug 24 7:50am ET

Veteran Buffalo Bills running back Frank Gore put on a bit of a show Friday, carrying the ball eight times for 57 yards, highlighted by a 27-yard gain in the second quarter. He was the Bills' top rusher in the game, slightly outperforming fellow veteran LeSean McCoy, who had six carries for 37 yards. Gore looks to be the clear #2 running back in Buffalo behind McCoy and ahead of Devin Singletary right now, but he's not the most enticing fantasy target given the crowded backfield and the fact that the Bills likely won't carry too many fantasy assets this year.

From RotoBaller

Josh Allen Aug 24 7:40am ET

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen played the entire first half of Friday's preseason game against the Lions and completed three of six passes for 49 yards and also added 17 rushing yards on two attempts. The Bills went with a run-heavy attack in the first half, but opened things up a bit more in the second half when Matt Barkley threw for 142 yards. This was Allen's lowest passing output of the preseason so far, but there's not much to make of it. Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy got their most extended work so far so it's likely that head coach Greg McDermott just wanted to prioritize other things during the game. Allen remains a solid late-round sleeper to target in fantasy drafts, especially enticing in two-quarterback leagues.

From RotoBaller

LeSean McCoy Aug 24 7:30am ET

Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy had a strong game in the team's third preseason game on Friday, rushing the ball six times for 37 yards, good for 6.2 yards per carry. McCoy sat out the Bills' first preseason game and only rushed for six yards in the team's second preseason game, so it was nice to see an effective outing from him this week. However, he was somewhat upstaged by fellow veteran Frank Gore, who rushed eight times for 57 yards in the game. McCoy is a fine running back to target after the first twenty-or-so running backs are off the board, but he's in a crowded backfield with Gore and promising rookie Devin Singletary and of course father time is working against the 31-year-old as well.

From RotoBaller

Devin Singletary Aug 24 7:30am ET

Buffalo Bills rookie running back Devin Singletary only had one touch in Friday's preseason game against the Lions, but he made the most of it. Singletary scored a nine-yard rushing touchdown to help the Bills defeat the Lions 24-20. Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy and Marcus Murphy got the bulk of the carries in the game, with 21 combined. Murphy of course doesn't pose much of a playing time threat to Singletary, but seeing Gore and McCoy get eight and six carries, respectively, isn't too promising for Singletary's early season outlook. Singletary is a great late-round sleeper, but this game may have been a reminder that it's going to take a few weeks before he's able to break through and earn the playing time needed to deliver on his potential.

From RotoBaller

Saquon Barkley Aug 24 5:50am ET

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (rest) did not play during the team's Week 3 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. With Barkley held out, the team got a chance to see running backs Wayne Gallman, who finished with 31 yards on eight carries, in addition to Jonathan Hilliman and Rod Smith, who each had a touchdown. The sophomore back will likely sit for the remainder of the preseason but is expected to continue to be selected within the first two picks in fantasy drafts regardless if he suits up next Thursday against the Pats in the team's last matchup before the regular season.

From RotoBaller

Evan Engram Aug 24 5:40am ET

New York Giants tight end Evan Engram finished with one reception for nine yards during Friday's win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The 24-year-old is entering his third season in the league, with Friday being his first taste of action so far this preseason. With the departure of star wideout Odell Beckham Jr., who was dealt to the Browns this past offseason, Engram's fantasy draft stock has remained relatively high. Given the lack of options at the tight end position, he will need to remain healthy in order for fantasy managers to reap the benefits of his abilities as a player this upcoming season, which is something that has been an issue over his past two seasons.

From RotoBaller

Daniel Jones Aug 24 5:30am ET

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones went 9-for-11 for 141 yards in the win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The rookie has been solid throughout the preseason, accumulating 369 yards and two touchdowns while maintaining a healthy 83.3 completion percentage to go along with a 140.1 quarterback rating. With Eli Manning also having a productive preseason, Jones will ride the bench, at least initially, until the veteran demonstrates that he is no longer a viable option as the team's main signal-caller, leaving Jones with little fantasy appeal outside of dynasty formats at the moment.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Wallace Aug 24 1:53am ET

Denver Broncos LB Aaron Wallace (hamstring) passed through waivers and was placed on the Reserve/Injured list Friday, Aug. 23.

From TheHuddle