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NFL Playoffs League - FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Early ADP Trends

Tue Jul 16 4:14pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brady is 18th quarterback selected


It is very early, but trends are starting to form in drafts. There have been a ton of drafts on our site already, giving us a pretty good indication of ADP. We thought it might be a good time to take a closer look at the ADP numbers and what it might mean to you. 

First off, any of the big four running backs (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott or Kamara) are getting picked with the first four picks. But for now, Barkley is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by McCaffrey, Elliott and Kamara. Either way, if you want one of these four backs, you better have a top-four pick.

The tight end position is an interesting one this year. The top three consensus tight ends are Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. If you want one of these guys, you better act early. They are not lasting long. Kelce is even going in the first round in some drafts. He has an ADP of 14.94. Ertz is more of a second-round pick, having an ADP of 25.08. Kittle is a second or third round pick with an ADP of 30.47. The next tight end getting picked is O.J. Howard. His ADP is just 60.44, though, going 30 picks later than Kittle. 

Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 quarterback in early drafts. He has an ADP of 33.66. He goes well before the second quarterback selected, which is Andrew Luck at 58.61. So if you think Mahomes is going to repeat and have another huge season, you better act early to get him. He is going in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The Baker Mayfield hype is in full effect. He is the fifth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 85.21. He is getting selected ahead of players like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Another young quarterback that is getting early love is Kyler Murray. He is the 12th quarterback off the board and has an ADP of 115.51. Murray is getting picked as a low-end No. 1, showing that a lot of fantasy owners have faith in him for a big first season. 

Tom Brady might be the biggest surprise at quarterback right now. You never thought you would hear this, but he is currently the 18th quarterback getting selected in drafts. He has an ADP of 145.71 and is getting picked after guys like Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. It is a little surprising to see him falling, but Brady certainly has questions marks the year with his age and lack of depth at receiver and tight end for the Patriots. 

Toddy Gurley is a big question mark for the coming year because of his knee issue, which limited him down the stretch last year. You just don’t know how he is going to respond this year and if he will get the workload of past seasons. But even with that said, his ADP is 16.43. Owners are still taking him the second round of drafts because of his past history and huge potential if healthy and playing at a high level.

Josh Jacobs is the first rookie running back getting selected and also the highest rookie overall. He has an ADP of 31.34. Jacobs is the unquestioned starter in Oakland and has little competition for carries, which is driving up his price tag for the coming year. The next rookie back off the board is David Montgomery. He has an ADP of 50.50. Montgomery has more question marks than Jacobs for the coming year, but certainly has potential for big things if he gets the work. 

The receiver position has a few notable trends. First off, JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.12) is getting picked before Antonio Brown (20.26). Smith-Schuster is the clear No. 1 target for the Steelers with Brown gone. The move to Oakland has clearly hurt the value of Brown. We’ll see how it all plays out this coming season. 

Larry Fitzgerald is an intriguing fantasy receiver. He is dirt cheap right now, having an ADP of 101.65. The veteran receiver isn’t getting any younger but hasn’t shown a ton of signs of slowing down in recent years. And now he gets to play in a wide open, pass-first offense with a promising rookie at the helm. He could be worth grabbing at his current price.

Amari Cooper is another somewhat polarizing fantasy figure. He can be huge one week but disappear the next. A move to Dallas is supposed to help stabilize his production. We’ll see. For now, you need to act pretty early to get the Cowboys early No. 1 receiver. Cooper has an ADP of 32.86, making him a third-round pick. 

A couple injury and suspended players are worthing looking at too. Tyreek Hill is the big one. We aren’t sure how long or if he will be suspended at this point, causing him to be a huge fantasy question mark. Hill has an ADP of 52.98. This could end up being a wasted pick or a great one, depending on how the possible suspension plays out. 

Josh Gordon is another player with suspension issues. He is currently suspended but could be reinstated at some point this year. If that happens, he could play a huge role in a passing game looking for options. Gordon has an ADP of 174.10, meaning he is getting picked near the end of drafts.

Cam Newton is returning from offseason shoulder surgery and is currently the ninth quarterback off the board. He has an ADP of 109.68. Newton missed two games last year because of injury and was still 14th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. His shoulder is a concern going forward but his current ADP and the depth of the quarterback position make Newton a risk that might be worth taking because of his past success.

Hunter Henry missed all of last season because of a torn ACL but his stock is pretty high despite returning from a major injury. He is the sixth tight end selected, having an ADP of 70.82. He seems to be an early target for all of those owners that passed on one of the big-three tight ends. 

So with this all said, don’t use ADP as your rankings. These are a tool to help you come draft day. The ADP gives you an idea of where players are being selected. Either way, we always suggest targeting some players for the season and grabbing them. You might have to go a round or two earlier to get them but that is alright. Get the players you want on your roster. Good luck in all your drafts!

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Baker Mayfield Aug 23 11:03pm ET

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield completed 10 of his 26 passes for 72 yards and an interception in a 13-12 preseason loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Friday, Aug. 23.

Fantasy Spin: It was an ugly offensive performance for both teams, but it is worth noting that while all the pieces are in place for Mayfield to have a big season, he is still unproven compared to some other QB1 options.

From TheHuddle

Deone Bucannon Aug 23 11:03pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LB Deone Bucannon (knee) suffered a knee injury during a 13-12 preseason win over the Cleveland Browns Friday, Aug. 23.

From TheHuddle

Kentrell Brice Aug 23 11:03pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers S Kentrell Brice (shoulder) suffered a shoulder injury during a 13-12 preseason win over the Cleveland Browns Friday, Aug. 23.

From TheHuddle

Austin Seibert Aug 23 11:00pm ET

Cleveland Browns kicker Austin Seibert nailed all four of his field goal attempts in a 13-12 preseason loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Friday. His long field goal went for 54 yards in the loss. The rookie kicker has made headlines for the wrong reasons this preseason due to his struggles with accuracy after Cleveland made him a fifth-round pick in the past draft. Fortunately for Seibert, his main competitor Greg Joseph hasn't been any better in the kicking game. Joseph did not get a chance to play on Friday night, presumably he will get the entire fourth preseason game to show that he is the man for the job. Whoever wins the kicker job will have some fantasy value tied to what will be an exciting offense this season.

From RotoBaller

Jameis Winston Aug 23 11:00pm ET

The Cleveland Browns defense was excellent in a 13-12 preseason loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Friday. Cleveland racked up seven sacks in the loss, with five of those sacks coming against Jameis Winston and Tampa Bay's first-string offense. The pass rush looked fierce in the contest, with offseason addition Olivier Vernon picking up two sacks on the evening. Cleveland's defense is expected to be a top-six unit in fantasy this season, making them a defense worth targeting toward the end of fantasy drafts.

From RotoBaller

Demetrius Harris Aug 23 10:50pm ET

Cleveland Browns tight end Demetrius Harris failed to catch any of his four targets in his team's third preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Friday. With David Njoku not playing, Harris got the start and played into the second quarter with quarterback Baker Mayfield. The veteran tight end is expected to take a secondary role this season but Harris would have some standalone value if Njoku were to suffer an injury. Harris does not need to be drafted in fantasy leagues but he would presumably be a hot waiver add should he find his way into the starting job during the season.

From RotoBaller

D'Ernest Johnson Aug 23 10:50pm ET

Cleveland Browns running back D'Ernest Johnson turned in a solid game in his team's 13-12 preseason loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Friday. Johnson struggled on the ground, gaining just 10 yards on five carries, but he excelled in the passing game with three catches for 43 yards. The former Orlando Apollo is trying his best to make the final Cleveland roster, having gained 86 yards on 20 carries while adding six catches for 69 yards and a score. Johnson is on the radar as an extremely deep dynasty taxi squad stash going forward.

From RotoBaller

Kareem Hunt Aug 23 10:40pm ET

Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt carried the ball five times for 11 yards in his team's third preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Friday. He also added a three-yard reception in the game. With Nick Chubb sitting out to rest, Hunt got the start and played into the second quarter in the game. The third-year running back has now totaled 17 rushing yards on seven carries across two preseason games. Hunt has to serve an eight-game suspension to open the season but he's expected to fill the passing-down role behind Chubb once he is reinstated for the second half. He should not be drafted outside of deep leagues this year.

From RotoBaller

T.J. Hockenson Aug 23 10:40pm ET

Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson had three catches on four targets for 52 yards during the first half of the Lions preseason Week 3 matchup against the Bills. Hockenson and Stafford already seem to be clicking, making it very exciting to see how well that translates into the regular season. For now, Hockenson remains an interesting late round TE depth option in most leagues and an excellent addition to dynasty teams.

From RotoBaller

Blaine Gabbert Aug 23 10:40pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (wrist) injured his left wrist in the preseason game on Thursday night against the Browns. Gabbert was seen on the sidelines wearing a sling, so this injury is likely pretty serious. With the regular season opener coming up quickly, it looks like Ryan Griffin will be the primary backup to starter Jameis Winston in Week 1. Stay tuned for more updates on the exact nature of Gabbert's injury. Gabbert went 4-for-5 for 33 yards before his injury.

From RotoBaller

Rashard Higgins Aug 23 10:40pm ET

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Rashard Higgins caught three of his seven targets for 18 yards in his team's third preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Friday. Higgins acted as the team's de facto No. 1 receiver with both Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry resting. He failed to break any big plays on an evening where Baker Mayfield struggled to move the ball down the field. Thanks to an Antonio Callaway four-game suspension to begin the year, Higgins has the No. 3 wide receiver role locked up to open the season. He has some low-end flex appeal in PPR leagues as he should have a few big games this season.

From RotoBaller

Kerryon Johnson Aug 23 10:30pm ET

Detroit Lions running back Kerryon Johnson again saw a light workload during the Lions Week 3 preseason matchup against the Bills. The Lions, and Johnson, seem to be content with letting him see a few touches each preseason game to see some live action but not enough to really risk injury. Johnson had two carries for four yard and one catch for seven yards against the Bills; but ultimately, he remained healthy and looks ready for Week 1 of the regular season.

From RotoBaller

Baker Mayfield Aug 23 10:30pm ET

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield struggled in his team's third preseason game on Friday. Mayfield completed 10-of-26 passes for 72 yards and an interception against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He played the entire first half, leading his team to just nine points on three field goals. While it was an uninspiring outing for Mayfield, it is worth noting that he was without Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku. He won't play in the final preseason game next week, meaning the next time fantasy owners will see him will be the season opener against the Tennessee Titans. Mayfield can still be drafted as a QB1 in fantasy despite the poor showing on Friday.

From RotoBaller

Tre'Davious White Aug 23 10:23pm ET

Updating a previous report, Buffalo Bills CB Tre'Davious White (quadriceps) suffered a quadriceps contusion in the preseason game against the Detroit Lions Friday, Aug. 23.

From TheHuddle

Matthew Stafford Aug 23 10:20pm ET

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford went 12/19 for 137 yards and a touchdown in his brief outing during the Lion's Week 3 preseason matchup. Even though it was a brief outing, Stafford was able to prove that he is regular season ready; he will likely remain sidelined for the Lion's final preseason game next week. Stafford is a solid QB2 option and a reasonable QB1 option in deeper leagues on weeks that present favorable matchups. Stafford has weapons to work with in 2019, it'll be interesting to see how he uses them.

From RotoBaller

Tra Carson Aug 23 10:13pm ET

Green Bay Packers RB Tra Carson is currently ahead of RB Dexter Williams for the No. 3 running back job because he has a better understanding of blitz pickup, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. 'I think just overall knowledge of knowing what to do, especially when it comes to pass protection,' LaFleur said.

From TheHuddle

Blaine Gabbert Aug 23 10:03pm ET

Updating a previous report, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Blaine Gabbert (shoulder) has been ruled out for the remainder of the preseason game against the Cleveland Browns with a shoulder injury Friday, Aug. 23.

From TheHuddle

Blaine Gabbert Aug 23 9:43pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Blaine Gabbert (wrist) exited the preseason game against the Cleveland Browns with a left wrist injury Friday, Aug. 23.

From TheHuddle

Kevin King Aug 23 9:43pm ET

Green Bay Packers CB Kevin King (hamstring) was on the field running sprints prior to the preseason game against the Oakland Raiders Thursday, Aug. 22.

From TheHuddle

Tre'Davious White Aug 23 9:33pm ET

Buffalo Bills CB Tre'Davious White (leg) exited the preseason game against the Detroit Lions and had his right leg wrapped in ice Friday, Aug. 23.

From TheHuddle