Wed Nov 6 8:57am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Henry is setup for big Week 10
There are six teams on a bye this week, making it really tough to set lineups for many fantasy owners. So get those lineups set early. Make your waiver wire moves and decisions early, so you aren’t left hanging come Sunday. You don’t want to be late to the game and have no quality players left to start for Week 10. Get those lineups in order in a timely fashion. This could be a tough week.
With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Packers running back Jamaal Williams has really surprise me this year. I was expected Aaron Jones to really get most of the work at running back with a new coaching staff around, finally becoming the focal point of the running game. Jones has gotten plenty of work, but Williams keeps hanging around and producing. He has receiving touchdowns four straight games. He also has at least three receptions (17 total) all four of those games. Williams has been a productive fantasy back and useful flex play in his current role with the Packers.
I’m really impressed by the Lions passing attack. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones have really taken their games to new levels while Danny Amendola has been a great fit for the slot. These three make it very tough for the opposition, providing something different at the receiver spot. Matthew Stafford has been the biggest benefactor of this, producing his best season in a while. He has five three-touchdown games and I don’t think that is a fluke. He is going to keep producing.
Lamar Jackson has fewer than 200-passing yards three of four games. His passing numbers might be down but that doesn’t mean his fantasy numbers are suffering. Jackson has 60-plus rushing yards five straight games, including two 100-yard games during that stretch. He just keeps getting it done, getting his points in many different ways. I would expect his production to continue to be high the rest of the way because of his dual threat ability. We are nine weeks into the season and Jackson is No. 1 overall in fantasy quarterback scoring.
I’m kind of anxious to see Bengals rookie quarterback Ryan Finley in action. He was pretty impressive in preseason action and the Bengals possess a pretty good passing attack in this offense. I’m not sure he is going to be a fantasy help at quarterback, but his insertion into the lineup might not be as big of a detriment as many are thinking. I’ll be watching him closely this weekend to see how he runs this offense.
I know Jameis Winston is a turnover machine and could be on his way out as the starter in Tampa after the season, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a help to fantasy teams. Winston is all the way up sixth overall in the fantasy quarterback rankings. He has multiple touchdowns five of six games and 300-yard games three straight. He has five total 300-yard games for the season in the Bucs pass-first offense. Winston is getting it done for fantasy teams despite the turnovers.
It sure looked like Evan Engram was going to have a breakout season but things haven’t gone his way since a fast start. He had 100-yard games two of his first three, but hasn’t topped 55 yards since Week 3. He also is battling some sort of foot injury now, which is another concern. We might have to wait one more season for that huge year from Engram. He certainly has the potential, but needs to be on the field for that to happen. He is still yet to have a full season and his best season as a pro came his rookie year.
Tevin Coleman is having a bit of an uneven season. He has some huge games, including a three-touchdown performance in Week 8. But he has fewer than 10 fantasy points two of his last three games. He isn't a sure fantasy thing every week despite playing in a good 49ers run-first offense. The issue is with his consistency. He just isn’t getting the work in the passing game to make up for down rushing numbers. Coleman has not topped two receptions in a game this year. He would look like a better fantasy back if his work in the passing game saw an uptick in production. Until that happens, there could be more inconsistency from Coleman.
As always, don’t forget to check out my weekly rankings here: Week 10 rankings.
News and Notes: The Jets signed linebacker Paul Worrilow on Tuesday. . . . .The Jaguars announced quarterback Nick Foles will return as the starter following the team’s bye this week. Rookie Gardner Minshew is heading back to the bench, making Foles the starter once again now that he is healthy. . . . .The Bills signed defensive tackle Corey Liuget on Tuesday. . . . .The Ravens added some more depth at receiver and special teams, signing receiver De'Anthony Thomas on Tuesday.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. Henry didn’t have his greatest rushing performance last week but still found the end zone and finished with 99 total yards. He had a season-high three catches in the game, which was good to see for his fantasy owners. Henry has been very good at finding the end zone all season, having scores six of nine games. He also has 75 or more rushing yards six of nine games. Henry should keep his solid play going this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and rank 29th overall against the run. Henry is a legit No. 1 fantasy back in this matchup.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. Murray had his most impressive showing of the season his last time out. He played a great 49ers defense and threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. It was great to see after two straight games without a score, especially against such a great defense. Murray is 10th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring as a rookie and that is with getting shut out of the end zone three times. He has been a consistent producer. He is setup to build on last week, getting a weak Bucs secondary in Week 10. Tampa allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and are 31st against the pass.
Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers. Henry has returned to the lineup with a vengeance. He has at least four receptions his last four and 80-plus yards three of those games. He was targeted a season-high 10 times last week, having seven receptions for 84 yards. He has moved into must-start territory for fantasy teams. Things are looking good for him to have another big performance in Week 10, playing the Raiders. Oakland allows the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends and are dead last against the pass.
Mark Ingram, RB, Ravens. Ingram had his highest rushing total of the season last week, rushing 15 times for 115 yards. He also had two receptions for 29 yards, giving him 144 total yards in the game. He had three straight games with fewer than 55-rushing yards before that one, so his production was good to see for his fantasy owners. Ingram didn’t score last week but has touchdowns four of eight games. He has produced consistent fantasy numbers much of the year because of all his work and ability to find the end zone. Ingram plays the Bengals this week, a team he scored against just a few weeks back. Cincinnati allows the second most fantasy points to running backs and rank dead last against the run, allowing 178-rushing yards per game.
Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys. Gallup has quieted some in recent weeks, having fewer than 50 yards three straight games. He did find the end zone last week, though, and has been targeted 17 times his last three. So he is getting the chances and is always capable of big things in this passing attack. Gallup also has touchdowns two of four games. The Vikings are likely to have shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes on Amari Cooper, giving Gallup favorable coverages. Plus, the Vikings allow the 10th most fantasy points to receivers. Gallup could see his reception and yardage totals rise in this one.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons. Freeman is yet to have a rushing touchdown this season and failed to top 90-rushing yards in any game. The only thing saving his fantasy season is work in the passing game. He has two eight-reception gams and at least three catches all but a game. But even with that said, it is a concern to see him have fewer than 40-rushing yards four of five games. He is kind of a risk when he plays a tough defense, which is the case this week. The Saints allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and are fourth overall against the run. Freeman could have his struggles in this matchup.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings. Cousins has really upped his game in recent weeks, having three-touchdown games three of four. He also has multiple scores four of give. It was quite the turnaround from earlier in the year. But he did have a game without a touchdown sprinkled in those great showings and has one or no scores four of nine games. He isn’t quite the sure thing just yet. He goes on the road this week to face a good Cowboys defense. Dallas allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and allowed just seven passing touchdowns all year. Cousins might be a guy to sit this week despite his great play of late.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks. Metcalf enjoyed his best game as a pro last week, so you are probably wondering why he makes this list. Well, he has a really tough matchup and has more than 70 yards in a game just twice all year. He can be a touchdown dependent player, and he might be shutout of the end zone this week. Metcalf plays the 49ers. San Francisco is first overall against the pass and allowed just seven passing touchdowns all year. Metcalf could come back down to earth after last week.
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams. Gurley has fewer than 65-rushing yards all but one game this year. And that game came in Week 1. And most disturbing is his lack of work in the passing game, having one or no receptions five of eight games. He has really been a fantasy bust to date. You see a matchup with the Steelers this week and think it might be a good one for Gurley, but Pittsburgh has been good defensively against the run. The Steelers allow the seventh most fantasy points to running backs. Gurley probably won’t have a breakout performance in this one.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns. Landry is getting more looks these days, which is encouraging. He has 23 targets his last two games. The problem is he has 11 receptions on those 23 targets. His fantasy numbers still aren’t great despite the added looks. He has just one touchdown this year and topped 70 yards just two times all year. Expect another mediocre performance in Week 10 against the Bills. Buffalo is third against the pass and allow just 184-passing yards per game.
Josh Allen, QB, Bills. Allen isn’t posting numbers that are off the charts but very consistent. He has multiple touchdowns four straight games. Allen also has multiple scores six of nine games. His yardage number aren’t always great but he gets his yards on the ground and scores, making him the 12th rated fantasy quarterback right now. He has value as a low-end No. 1. He should play well again this week against the Browns. Cleveland is allowing 26 points per game and the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Alex Erickson, WR, Bengals. Erickson has emerged as the top slot receiver for the Bengals. So even if A.J. Green returns this week, expect Erickson to still have a big role offensively. He has 14 receptions for 234 yards his last two games and at least four catches three straight. There is a rookie quarterback throwing to him this week, but that isn’t a huge concern because the Bengals should still throw often. They can’t run the ball, giving options in their passing game value despite the uncertainty at quarterback. Erickson gets the Ravens in Week 10, a team second against the run but just 26th against the pass.
J.D. McKissic, RB, Lions. McKissic has emerged as the pass-catching back for the Lions with Kerryon Johnson out. He has three receptions each of the last two games and at least two catches four straight. He also is getting a few chances to run the ball, having 29 or more rushing yards four games. So he has some value as a flex player for fantasy teams in the Lions pass-first offense. He could see his reception totals continue to rise going forward, especially this week against the Bears. Chicago has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to running backs.
O.J. Howard, TE, Bucs. Howard has been a disaster this year, doing next to nothing on the field while also having some injury issues. He missed the last two games with a hamstring injury but is coming back this week. He will return as the starter. If he is ever going to have that big week, this is the matchup for Howard. He gets a Cardinals team that has been horrific against the tight end. The Cardinals allow the most fantasy points to tight ends by a wide margin. Howard is worth a play this week, especially if you need a fill-in because of injury or bye weeks.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Jets. Crowder had his highest reception total of the season last week since Week 1, catching eight passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. He is the top weekly target in this Jets offense. He has at least four receptions five of eight games. He has value despite finding the end zone little. Crowder has a matchup this week to build on his showing from last week. He gets the Giants, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers. Receivers have enjoyed big success against the Giants almost the entire season.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chargers/Raiders, Falcons/Saints, Cardinals/Bucs.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Bye Weeks: Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, Patriots, Eagles, Redskins.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at email@example.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore has been one of the most productive fantasy options as of late and will look to keep things moving against Atlanta on Sunday. After recording just one touchdown throughout his first 10 games of the season, Moore has three over the last two weeks. He hasn't been targeted less than eight times in each of his previous eight games and should retain his must-start status in all fantasy formats in Week 14.
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey had arguably the worst performance of the season, at least as a runner, against the Redskins in Week 13. While he had a favorable matchup against one of the league's worst defenses, the 23-year-old had just 44 yards on 14 attempts to go along with an acceptable seven catches for 58 yards. That game marked only the third time all season that he failed to record a touchdown, but he should get back on track against Atlanta after playing well against them just a few weeks ago.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen has a difficult matchup on Sunday against the Falcons Defense. Atlanta has played well against opposing quarterbacks, especially as of late, and held Drees Brees to just one touchdown toss during the Thanksgiving matchup with New Orleans, while also forcing Allen to throw four picks just a few weeks ago. The 23-year-old is a different player than what we saw after he initially took over for Cam Newton (foot) earlier in the year, and should remain out of starting lineups across the board in Week 14.
The Green Bay Packers Defense gets a juicy Week 14 matchup against rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins and the Washington Redskins. For the season, Washington ranks in the bottom-10 of the league in points scored, sacks allowed, and interceptions thrown. Haskins has been sacked 14 times in the last three games combined. Green Bay ranks in the bottom-10 of the league in QB pressures but should have no trouble against Washington's offensive line.
Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby will face the Washington Redskins in Week 14. The 35-year-old ranks 17th in fantasy points scored by kickers and only 26th in field goal attempts. Crosby has been money on extra points this year, sporting a 33 of 33 mark. He should have a chance to bolster these numbers against a Redskins team that allows 24.2 points per game, 21st in the NFL. Crosby should be able to nail at least a field goal and three extra points against Washington.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is a middling QB2 in Week 14 against the New Orleans Saints. With a 101.2 quarterback rating, Garoppolos season-long body of work looks great but hes surpassed 300 yards just twice and committed 14 total turnovers. Facing a challenging Saints Defense on the road, Garoppolo will likely be tasked to pace with the Saints but will have his healthiest receiving corps in weeks. In a potential shootout, Jimmy G may have upside, but his volatile results dont render him a trustworthy fantasy quarterback in the vital playoff weeks.
Green Bay Packers tight end Jimmy Graham gets a good matchup against the Washington Redskins. Unfortunately, it doesn't matter because the 32-year-old has seen a steady decline in snaps over the last three weeks. Graham even had a touchdown snatched away from him by backup tight end Mercedes Lewis. There's also the fact that he's registered only one catch in back-to-back games. Even the neediest of tight end needy fantasy owners should stay away from Graham this week.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Allen Lazard will take on the Washington Redskins in Week 14. The rookie had a career-high 103 receiving yards against the Giants last week. Lazard has out-snapped fellow receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling in three consecutive games. Unfortunately, that role hasn't lent a ton of volume, as his season-high for targets is six. Still, Aaron Rodgers seems to trust him- and he doesn't throw trust around lightly. It's worth noting that each of his three catches from last week went for 20-plus yards, giving him a boom-or-bust outlook. It's best to avoid Lazard this week.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams gets a Week 14 matchup with the Washington Redskins. Adams is on a hot streak, with at least seven catches in four straight games and three touchdowns in his last two contests combined. He's been the Packers' undisputed number-one pass catcher this year, with 79 targets in eight games- the next closest is Aaron Jones with 52 in 12 games. That kind of volume makes him a must-start every week and especially against Washington. Like the Giants, the Redskins don't have anyone who can slow Adams down. Start him as a high-end WR1 this week.
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (ankle) needs no introduction for Week 14s matchup against the New Orleans Saints. Pro Football Focus highest-graded tight end since 2006 will be a premium TE1 against a battered Saints linebacking corps on Sunday. Kittle was muted in Week 13s rainy contest but should reemerge as the focal point in the Niners aerial attack in the dome. Despite missing two games and hobbled by a lingering ankle injury, Kittle leads Niners pass-catchers in all relevant metrics and should be treated accordingly this weekend.
San Francisco 49ers running back Tevin Coleman needs to prove his worth in Week 14 against the New Orleans Saints. Coleman helplessly watched backup Raheem Mostert notch 154 yards and a score in Week 13 as he managed just six touches for 15 yards. The de facto starter has struggled for six straight games, opening the door for a surging Mostert. With Matt Breida (ankle) also expected back in the mix, Coleman is a volatile RB3 against a tough Saints rush defense. Ideally, Coleman is positioned for double-digit touches this Sunday but with the Niners not shy to leverage the hot hand, fantasy managers will hope he capitalizes on his shrinking opportunities.
Green Bay Packers running back Jamaal Williams (knee) draws a great matchup against the Washington Redskins in Week 14. Williams was limited in practice this week but will play on Sunday against the Redskins' 27th-ranked run defense. The 24-year-old has been on a roll, with at least 13 touches and 50 scrimmage yards in each of the last three games. Fellow back Aaron Jones is still "the guy" in Green Bay, though Williams' recent production guarantees him a role. The Redskins have allowed two backs to exceed 50 scrimmage yards five times this year. Jones and Williams are a good bet to make this the sixth time. Start Williams in the flex spot this week.
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Brandin Cooks has caught four passes for 56 yards in two games since returning from a concussion. He's still worth holding onto, but he can't be played against the Seattle Seahawks this week.
Los Angeles Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein hasn't had a lot of opportunities lately. He's 6-for-8 in field goals and 7-for-7 in extra points the last four games. The Seattle Seahawks are a midrange matchup, and he's a sketchy low-end kicker this week.
The Los Angeles Rams Defense has been stout of late with 15 sacks, two fumble recoveries, two picks, a safety and two touchdowns in the last four games. The Seattle Seahawks have allowed opposing defenses the most fantasy points over the last five weeks. They've surrendered two touchdowns, 16 sacks, six fumble recoveries and three picks in the last four games. The Rams Defense is a midrange option to start this week.
Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald broke free for 1.5 sacks against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13. He now has sacks in six of the last seven games, and the Seattle Seahawks have allowed 16 in the last four. Donald won't offer much outside of that category, but he is a low-end DL1 option this week.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff ended a three-game touchdown drought with 424 yards and two scores last week against the Arizona Cardinals. He'll have a tougher matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, but it's within reason to start him. He had 395 passing yards, one score and one pick against them earlier in the season. Goff is a feast-or-famine QB1 in Week 14.
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones will face the Washington Redskins in Week 14. The 24-year-old has been hard to trust lately, as he's failed to score a touchdown or eclipse 50 scrimmage yards in three of his last four games. Jones may have been battling through a sore ankle against the New York Giants last week, which helps explain the poor performance. The good news for Jones is, he's healthy coming into a game against the league's 27th-ranked rushing defense. Add in the fact that last week, he saw the highest number of targets since his Week 8 explosion against Kansas City- and it's easy to see him breaking out this week. Keep the faith in Jones as an RB1 against Washington.
Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley has turned a corner the last few weeks since the Rams started using him more. He's averaging 4.2 yards per carry after his average was under four for most of the season. He has a midrange matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this week. Gurley rushed 15 times for 51 yards and two scores against the division rival earlier this year. He's a high-end RB2 in Week 14.
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp got back on track against the Arizona Cardinals after two clunker weeks. Kupp's problem is that he has had a few massive games and a few invisible games. Which Kupp you'll get on a weekly basis is unknown. Quarterback Jared Goff has really connected with Robert Woods and targeted him an absurd 18 times last week. Kupp has suffered due to this. He has a midrange matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, and he had nine catches for 117 yards and a score against them earlier this season. Look at him as a high-end WR2.