Fri Feb 3 6:01am ET
By JOSH DUBOW
AP Pro Football Writer
Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni looks on prior to the NFC Championship NFL football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
If the Super Bowl comes down to a key fourth-down decision, that might bode well for the the Philadelphia Eagles.
The analytically inclined Eagles have long been one of the NFL's most aggressive organizations when it comes to the crucial fourth-down calls.
Those decisions helped fuel the team's first Super Bowl title five years ago under coach Doug Pederson and have helped Philadelphia get back to the title game this season under his successor Nick Sirianni thanks to two key fourth-down conversions in the first half of the NFC title game against San Francisco.
The Eagles have converted more fourth downs than any other team in the regular season and playoffs combined, despite playing from ahead more than any other team this season.
''We have confidence,'' Sirianni said. ''When you go for it on fourth down, you put yourself in those scenarios all week. We have so many meetings about that, of what we're going to do in these scenarios, calls we might call, what we would call if we've already called that and everything like that. You put yourself through those calls, but at the end of the day, you make the decision because you trust the people that are out there doing the job.''
Sirianni ranked No. 1 this season the Football Outsiders' Critical Call Index, while his Kansas City counterpart Andy Reid ranked 28th.
The analytics company has one of the best models for determining when NFL teams should go and when they should kick on fourth downs, using its win probability model that relies on historical play-by-play data adjusted for variables such as the strength and weaknesses of both teams, injuries and other factors.
The Eagles have converted a league-best 25 fourth-down tries and an impressive clip of 71.4%. While much of that success has come in short-yardage situations where quarterback Jalen Hurts has thrived on sneaks that feature teammates giving him a legal push from behind - converting 27 of 31 runs on third or fourth-and-1 - the Eagles also have had success with more traditional plays.
Hurts converted a fourth-and-3 on a deep pass to DeVonta Smith on the opening drive last week against San Francisco to set up a touchdown - even though the play might have been overturned had the 49ers challenged it.
''I'd say the biggest part about it is the trust the coaches have in the players and the players have in the coach,'' tight end Dallas Goedert said. ''If we get on the other side of the field, we know it's four-down territory. If we get into third-and-manageable, fourth-and-manageable, it's just trusting the play call. ... The faith and the trust the coaches have in the players is pretty special.''
Later in the first half, Sirianni made a riskier call when he went for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 34 midway through the second quarter in a tie game.
While a stop there could have given San Francisco the ball in scoring position with a chance to take the lead before the half, Hurts converted the sneak. That led to another TD drive and Philadelphia never trailed the rest of the way.
''That aggressive style is what we like,'' running back Boston Scott said. ''That's kind of been the mindset here for a while. It's always been an aggressive style and trusting the players.''
The Eagles willingness to trust the numbers and be aggressive on fourth downs pre-dates Sirianni's arrival as head coach in 2021.
Pederson helped fuel the league-wide shift in decision making with the success he had going for it on fourth downs in Philadelphia's Super Bowl-winning 2017 season.
That proved crucial in the final game when Pederson's famous ''Philly Special'' call at the end of the first half led to a trick play TD pass from Trey Burton to quarterback Nick Foles and a fourth-and-1 conversion in Eagles territory helped spark the game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
Reid has typically had a more old-school approach on fourth downs but has shown a willingness at times to trust his offense. He attempted a league-low one fourth down from his own territory all season - a successful fourth-and-1 from his 45 late in a tie game against Tennessee in Week 9.
While the Chiefs did convert a key fourth-and-1 late in the first half last Sunday against the Bengals when Patrick Mahomes threw a 14-yard TD pass to Travis Kelce, that's been more of the exception than the rule as Kansas City's 12 fourth-down tries were tied for the second fewest in the NFL in the regular season.
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Las Vegas Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler expects several offers for quarterback Derek Carr in the months ahead. "There's going to be people interested," stated Ziegler while speaking to SiriusXM NFL Radio. "He's been a good football player in this league for quite some time." Whether Carr has been a quality signal-caller is debatable, especially after amassing 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions last season while completing just 60.8% of his throws. Nevertheless, his days in Vegas are unofficially over, at least as of now. However, Carr may benefit from a change of scenery, so his fantasy outlook hinges on where he'll be playing throughout the 2023-24 campaign.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ruled out San Francisco as a potential landing spot. "I'm not going to San Fran," Rodgers stated while speaking at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and it comes after the signal-caller finished the year with 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, a decline from the previous season. It's unknown what the future holds for the 39-year-old, although it's possible he could remain in Green Bay or call it quits altogether. Several teams are also interested in acquiring his services, so it will surely be an intriguing offseason in the months ahead.
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon will have his aggravated menacing charge dropped on Friday morning. Mixon's attorney, Peter Schafer, stated, "it was a rush to judgment," although it's unknown why the charges are being dropped. The former Sooner allegedly pointed a gun at another person on January 21. While Mixon won't face criminal charges, a civil suit, among other things, is still a possibility, so he isn't out of the woods just yet. The 26-year-old ran for 814 yards off 210 carries while amassing 60 catches for 441 yards. He also totaled nine touchdowns, seven few than the 2021-22 campaign. There will likely be more on this story, so it's too early to tell how this will impact Mixon's fantasy stock.
The New Orleans Saints interviewed former Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator Joe Woods for their open defensive coordinator position on Thursday, according to sources. Woods was on head coach Dennis Allen's staff with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2014. The Saints will have big changes to their defensive staff in 2023 after co-defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen took the defensive coordinator job with the Atlanta Falcons and the team parted ways with co-defensive coordinator Kris Richard. Woods was the Browns' D coordinator the last three years but was fired after 2022. Cleveland ranked 14th in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed.
Dallas Cowboys quarterbacks coach Doug Nussmeier interviewed for the Baltimore Ravens' open offensive coordinator position on Wednesday, according to multiple sources. In his three years as Dallas' QBs coach, Dak Prescott set a team record for touchdown passes in a season (37), and he had five different starters, including Cooper Rush, who went 4-1 with Prescott injured in 2022. Along with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Cowboys parted ways with Nussmeier after the season. He was the team's tight ends coach for two seasons before moving to QB coach. Nussmeier has also run offenses at the collegiate level at Florida, Michigan, Alabama, Washington and Fresno State. The Ravens parted ways with offensive coordinator Greg Roman after the 2022 campaign.
The New Orleans Saints have parted ways with co-defensive coordinator/secondary coach Kris Richard, according to sources. The Saints' other co-defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, recently left the team to take the defensive coordinator job with the division-rival Atlanta Falcons, so New Orleans will have big changes to their defensive coaching staff in 2023. Richard had interviews for the defensive coordinator role with the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins. Neither Nielsen nor Richard called the defensive plays in 2022, as head coach Dennis Allen took care of that. With the departures of both Nielsen and Richard, the Saints will not only be looking for a new defensive coordinator, but new defensive line and secondary coaches.
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon is wanted on aggravated menacing charges. The 26-year-old is accused of pointing a gun at a woman in downtown Cincinnati. He allegedly threatened to shoot her. This is an extremely serious situation that could cost Mixon his job. The superstar back has already been in trouble before when he punched a woman in college. There should be more information on this story as it develops.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota (knee) is unlikely to be with the organization next season. The 29-year-old left the team after getting benched and underwent surgery on his knee. The Falcons would save $12 million by cutting Mariota before June 1st. That being said, it seems increasingly likely the Falcons will move on from Mariota. The rebuilding Falcons will likely find another veteran to stick behind youngster Desmond Ridder. As for Mariota, he should be able to catch on as a backup elsewhere, but it's hard to believe he'll find a starting job to begin the 2023 season.
Los Angeles Chargers running back Joshua Kelley could see himself with a bigger role heading into next season. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore mentioned he saw Kelley start to develop a role in 2022. He continued by saying he is hopefully to get two or three guys in the backfield they can rely on. It sounds like Kelley is the leading candidate for the backup duties behind Austin Ekeler. Possibly, Moore gets Kelley more involved on the ground, while Ekeler becomes mainly the receiving back. It remains to be seen what the Chargers do, but Kelley could be worth holding onto in dynasty formats right now.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (pelvis) is unlikely to suit up for the upcoming Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles. Head coach Andy Reid said he doubts Hardman will be ready in time. The 24-year-old has battled injuries all season long, but did play in the AFC Championship Game. Sadly, he re-injured his pelvis during that game, so it seems unlikely he'll be ready in time for the big game. Hardman isn't a star player, but he does have big play ability. His absence would likely mean more usage for both Kadarius Toney and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is expected to get another interview for the Arizona Cardinals' head-coaching position, according to a league source. Glenn also had a second interview for the head-coaching job for the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday, so he's in play for the final two head-coaching opportunities in the NFL this cycle. He was responsible for resurrecting Detroit's defense last season in the second half of the year. In addition to Glenn, the Cardinals interviewed Mike Kafka, Lou Anarumo and Brian Callahan for the head-coaching gig this week. Arizona is looking to replace Kliff Kingsbury, who was fired after a disappointing 2022 campaign.
Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is scheduled to have his second interview for the Indianapolis Colts' head-coaching position on Saturday. It was reported on Thursday that the Colts could have a rare third round of coaching interviews, so they're clearly taking their time with a decision. Steichen has plenty of competition for the Colts head-coach job, as Aaron Glenn, Raheem Morris, Ejiro Evero, Don Martindale, Rich Bisaccia and Brian Callahan are also in the running. The Colts fired Frank Reich, who is now the Carolina Panthers head coach, after a rough start to the 2022 season. They replaced him with interim head coach Jeff Saturday, who went 1-7 down the stretch as a first-time head coach with zero previous coaching experience in the NFL.
New York Jets impending free-agent quarterback Mike White is likely to draw interest on the open market this offseason as a high-end backup. White had his moments in 2022 after taking over for the struggling Zach Wilson, but he's injury-prone and commits too many turnovers. He has started only seven games in his NFL game, but he's averaged 308 passing yards and completed 62.1 percent of his passes in six of those starts. Former Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur preferred White as the starter over Wilson, so there's a chance the Los Angeles Rams could be interested in signing White as the backup to Matthew Stafford. The Jets will keep Wilson around for now, but they're expected to make a big splash at the position via a trade or free agency.
The Atlanta Falcons are expected to re-sign impending unrestricted free-agent wide receivers Olamide Zaccheaus and KhaDarel Hodge this offseason. Zaccheaus was second on the team with 40 catches for 533 yards in 2022. "Just an extremely unselfish guy and the kind of guy you want in your program," wide receivers coach T.J. Yates said. Hodge had just 13 receptions for 202 yards but led the team with nine special teams tackles. Both wideouts entered the league as undrafted free agents and can probably be brought back on affordable deals. Zaccheaus struggled with rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder under center over the final four games, catching just eight passes on 17 targets for 55 yards. Neither Zaccheaus nor Hodge will open the 2023 season on the fantasy radar.
It sounds as though the Atlanta Falcons haven't given up on making Feleipe Franks a tight end. The former college quarterback was moved to the tight end position last year and showed flashes during training camp, but he didn't have any catches during the regular season and was only targeted twice. Franks is under contract for less than $1 million for 2023, so the Falcons can afford to be patient with his development. It's disappointing that the 25-year-old didn't do anything at all in the passing game, especially considering Kyle Pitts' season-ending knee injury. Franks played more than five offensive snaps in a game just once in 2022. He should have a bigger offensive role in 2023, but he won't be on the fantasy radar at all unless Pitts misses time with another injury.
The Athletic's Josh Kendall writes that the consensus is that nobody outside the Atlanta Falcons building knows whether the team is committed to quarterback Desmond Ridder for the long term because no one inside the building is talking. Ridder started the final four games of 2022 and went 73-for-115 for 708 yards, two touchdowns and a 112.9 passer rating on third downs. "I don't think it's smart business strategy ever to give away what your plan is," head coach Arthur Smith said. One private QB coach watching practices at UNLV this week expressed concerns about Ridder's throwing motion and how it will affect his accuracy and arm health down the road. Ridder's QB coach Jordan Palmer, however, notes how cerebral he is and says he's "set up for success." Atlanta has the No. 8 overall pick in this year's draft and enough salary cap space to add a high-profile QB, but they could also be content to let Ridder open the 2023 season as the starter under center.
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is particularly optimistic that wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle, hamstring) will be able to play in the Super Bowl on Feb. 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles. "He's in a good place," Reid said about Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster and Toney have yet to practice this week, but they'll have another whole week to rest up before the big game. Smith-Schuster had just one catch for seven yards in the AFC Championship before getting hurt, while Toney had a nine-yard catch. We'll have a better read on their statuses for the Super Bowl next week, but with Mecole Hardman (pelvis) unlikely to play, it could mean more work for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson if Smith-Schuster and Toney are limited or out.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (ankle) said he didn't aggravate his right high-ankle sprain in the AFC Championship win over the Cincinnati Bengals and just experienced general soreness from a physical game. "Other than that, I'm in a good spot," Mahomes said. He was somehow able to practice in full all of last week leading up to the game against Cincy and also put in a full practice on Wednesday. The 27-year-old certainly wasn't 100% last weekend, but he did enough to lead the Chiefs to a win by going 29-for-43 for 326 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Mahomes should be in better shape for the Super Bowl on Feb. 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles, but his mobility probably will continue to be hindered.
Dynasty | Kyle Shanahan said he doesn't envision "any scenario" where veteran Jimmy Garoppolo returns to the team for the 2023 season. Dynasty Analysis: He called Trey Lane and Brock Purdy both "starters" and is "content enough" with the situation. Without a series of catastrophic events, Garoppolo will depart and will likely find plenty of suitors. While not a high-end producer, he's a fine game manager and should have little difficult finding an under-center role to begin the 2023 regular season. He's listed as DLF's QB29.
Dynasty | There's no indication, either way, if the Falcons see sophomore Desmond Ridder as a potential starter in 2023 Dynasty Analysis: Apparently, no one "inside the building" is talking about Ridder or the opportunity to address the position via the draft. While some times prefer to put up smoke screens, others just go quiet as is the case with the Falcons. It's still early and with the Combine taking place later this month, there's a possibility more will emerge at that time. Ridder finished under-center in the team's final four games, producing a 63.5% completion percentage, throwing for 708 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. With added mobility, Ridder does possess an intriguing skillset and it's possible he could grow into the starting role with another year of experience but, at the same time, the team possesses the 8th-overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft and should have options if deemed necessary. Ridder is found as DLF's QB27 and this ranking hangs in the balance as the offseason plays out. A highly drafted rookie or the acquisition of a top free agent would send Ridder's dynasty stock off a cliff.