Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Pacheco is playing at high level
Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.
If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.
I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.
On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.
We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.
News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.
COLD PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry is coming off one of his worst games of the season: a one-catch, 18-yard outing against the Buffalo Bills. On one hand, it seems like Henry can only go up from here. On the other hand, he could struggle in a very challenging Week 16 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens' defense has allowed the third-fewest touchdowns and fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2025. Just last week, they limited Cincinnati's Mike Gesicki to just one catch for 11 yards. In addition to the tough matchup, Henry will face competition for targets from wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Mack Hollins, especially with Baltimore struggling against perimeter receivers. He'll also lose opportunities to fellow tight end Austin Hooper and the Patriots' backfield. If this were a more favorable matchup, managers could feel good about Henry's potential to separate himself from the rest of the pass-catchers and turn in a big week. However, the Ravens don't offer much of a chance for the veteran tight end to get right. He's borderline benchable this week and ranks as the overall TE13 in RotoBaller's latest fantasy football rankings.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte had a disappointing performance last Sunday against the Buffalo Bills (one catch for 30 yards), but he should bounce back against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football in Week 16. Despite his reduced volume and productivity lately, Boutte has played at least 75% of the offensive snaps in each of his last three games. He consistently gets onto the field and runs routes. Now, he just needs a steadier target share. That could come to fruition this week against the Ravens. Of all the fantasy points that Baltimore has surrendered to wide receivers in 2025, 69% of those points have been recorded by receivers who play on the perimeter. That mark ranks ninth-highest in the NFL, and it bodes well for Boutte, who almost always operates out wide. He and Mack Hollins, who also frequents the perimeter, should benefit from this matchup. Boutte currently ranks as the WR55 in RotoBaller's Week 16 fantasy football rankings, but managers in leagues with 14+ teams could certainly justify starting him as a low-floor, high-ceiling WR3 or flex on Sunday night.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Mack Hollins has another opportunity to produce as a solid flex play in fantasy football ahead of Sunday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. Hollins has been heavily involved in the Patriots' offense, averaging six targets and 9.2 full-PPR fantasy points over his last seven contests. During that span, he ranks as the overall WR40. He has also played at least 75% of the offensive snaps in each of his last five games. As a result, he has been getting more involved than Stefon Diggs and has similar participation to Kayshon Boutte. Last week against the Buffalo Bills, Hollins totaled 136 air yards, which ranked eighth-most among all NFL receivers. Quarterback Drake Maye trusts Hollins as one of his most reliable receivers, and his specific role bodes well for his Week 16 outlook. Of all the fantasy points that Baltimore has surrendered to wide receivers in 2025, 69% of those points have been recorded by receivers who play on the perimeter. That mark ranks ninth-highest in the NFL, and it bodes well for Hollins, who has played 77.3% of his snaps out wide. Hollins isn't the flashiest name, but his role, consistency, reliability, and involvement make him a solid WR3/flex play for Week 16. He ranks as the overall WR46 in RotoBaller's latest fantasy rankings.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs will look to get back on track in Week 16 against the Baltimore Ravens following a disappointing three-game stretch. Over his last three contests, Diggs has played fewer than half of the offensive snaps with just 11 targets, eight catches, 72 yards, and zero touchdowns. He ranks as the overall WR82 in full-PPR fantasy points per game during that span. It has been a frustrating stretch for a veteran receiver who had previously strung together five consecutive contests with double-digit fantasy points. This week, he'll take on a Ravens secondary that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers in 2025. That doesn't bode well for Diggs, who has played 49.8% of his snaps in the slot and has the 19th-most slot snaps in the NFL this year. Managers can absolutely justify benching the 32-year-old in fantasy leagues with 12 or fewer teams. He ranks as the overall WR31 in RotoBaller's latest fantasy football rankings for Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase has certainly had his share of ups and downs throughout the 2025 campaign. He hasn't scored a touchdown in weeks. Still, the wideout remains involved at a high level, most recently catching 10 of his 16 targets for 132 yards in the Week 15 AFC North clash with the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals aren't going to the postseason. However, as long as Chase is active, there's no way fantasy managers can keep him on the bench and feel good about it. That applies to Sunday's meeting with the Miami Dolphins, even more so if Tee Higgins (concussion) misses another contest.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown struggled on the ground in the last three games. However, he at least made up for it by catching 17 passes during that span. Without question, fantasy managers were expecting more from the 25-year-old after a quality 2024 campaign. Still, the upside is there, as evident by his two-touchdown effort in the Week 14 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Bengals have already been eliminated from postseason contention. While that could result in Brown and some of the other starters shutting it down before the end of the regular season, he should handle his usual workload versus Miami in Week 16, keeping him in the must-start conversation. That applies even more for PPR participants if Tee Higgins (concussion) can't suit up, considering Brown will presumably remain in line for additional pass-catching opportunities.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (knee) popped up on the injury report to begin the practice week. Fortunately, he logged full sessions and doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game against Miami. The signal-caller completed only 52.2% of his attempts in the Thursday night win over Baltimore in Week 13, although he still tossed two touchdowns to make up for it. However, it was a different story in the Week 15 rematch, with Burrow throwing two picks while failing to connect with any of his receivers in the end zone. The Bengals aren't going to the postseason, but that shouldn't stop the 2020 No. 1 overall pick from trying to lead his squad to wins to close out the 2025 campaign. With the Dolphins also eliminated from playoff contention, both teams have nothing to lose in Week 16. All things considered, as long as Burrow is active, he remains a must-start in any fantasy setup, even if Tee Higgins (concussion), who is questionable, can't suit up.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson has been one of the most explosive players in football since taking over as the team's primary ball-carrier in Week 9. Since that Week 9 contest, he ranks as the overall RB4 in full-PPR fantasy points per game, and he's averaging a whopping 6.2 yards per carry. He also has 18 catches over his last six games. Most recently, the rookie out of Ohio State gashed the Buffalo Bills for 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He should remain an explosive, high-ceiling running back ahead of Sunday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. The Ravens have been particularly susceptible to pass-catching running backs, which bodes well for Henderson given that he's averaging three catches per game since taking over the reins in New England. Even though Rhamondre Stevenson continues to steal 5-10 touches every week, there's no question that this backfield belongs to Henderson. The 23-year-old should continue to be started in all fantasy leagues. He ranks as the overall RB14 in RotoBaller's Week 16 fantasy rankings, and he has top-10 upside.
From RotoBaller
After recording touchdown catches in back-to-back games in Weeks 13 and 14, Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa was held without a reception on just one target in Week 15 by the Los Angeles Rams. The 23-year-old saw a reduction in playing time thanks to the return of Lions wideout Kalif Raymond, who had missed each of Detroit's previous two games with an ankle injury. On the bright side, TeSlaa still played 63% of his team's offensive snaps in Week 15, which was his third-highest mark in any game this season. However, he's recorded just eight catches on 15 targets across 14 games in 2025 and has been unable to carve out a consistent role in the Lions' passing game. The Lions have a favorable matchup on paper in Week 16 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who currently rank 29th in the NFL in total passing yards allowed (3,649). Still, TeSlaa's inconsistency makes him very difficult for fantasy managers to trust, and he should likely remain off fantasy radars in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates has been a bit shaky in recent weeks, as he's recorded a missed field goal in each of Detroit's last two games. He's now missed six field goal attempts across 14 games this season after missing just three attempts across 17 games as a rookie in 2024. Still, Bates leads the NFL in both extra-point makes (49) and attempts (51). He remains attached to the Lions offense, which enters Week 16 averaging a league-leading 30.6 points per contest. In Week 16, Detroit will host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh currently ranks just 18th in points allowed per game (23.3), so Detroit could have opportunities to get Bates on the field in point-scoring situations. Additionally, the game will be held indoors at Detroit's Ford Field, so the weather will not be a factor. Bates profiles as a solid starting kicker option for fantasy managers in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth caught three of his five targets for 45 yards last Monday night against the Miami Dolphins, but he was still out-snapped by tight end Darnell Washington and out-performed by tight end Jonnu Smith. Washington played 73% of the offensive snaps in Week 15, which was the fourth time in his last five games that he saw the field for at least two-thirds of the plays. The 24-year-old is only the TE38 in PPR leagues this year, but he has been a major part of the Steelers' offense with his ability to set huge blocks, catch short passes, and use his physical strength to earn yards after the catch. Meanwhile, Smith only played 29% of the snaps last week, but he continues to get involved in playcaller Arthur Smith's offense. On Monday, the tight end had two catches and a rushing touchdown. There's a role for every tight end in this offense, including Freiermuth, who is the TE25 in PPR leagues with 31 catches, 352 yards, and four touchdowns this year. However, none of the trio can be trusted in fantasy football leagues over the final stretch of the 2025 season. As it stands, Freiermuth is ranked as RotoBaller's TE29 ahead of his Week 16 clash with the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
After missing two games with an ankle injury, Detroit Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond returned to the lineup in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Rams and recorded one catch for 20 yards on one target. Despite his return, the 31-year-old saw a significant drop in playing time. Raymond played just 11 offensive snaps in Week 15, his first time playing fewer than 27 snaps in a game he was active for since Week 6. The veteran may be seeing his playing time usurped by rookie Lions wideout Isaac TeSlaa, who hauled in touchdown grabs in both games that Raymond missed with the ankle issue. For the season, Raymond has recorded just 16 catches for 170 yards on 20 targets across 12 games. Even in a favorable matchup on paper against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16, he remains an unlikely candidate for production. Raymond should remain off the radar of fantasy managers in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer remains off the fantasy radar ahead of Week 16 against the Houston Texans. Mayer was productive during his short stint as the team's starting tight end earlier this season, but he fell off the fantasy radar when superstar tight end Brock Bowers returned to the mix mid-year. Mayer has dealt with his own injury problems, too, as the 24-year-old was sidelined for Weeks 13 and 14. In his return to action last week, he played just 19% of the offensive snaps and wasn't targeted in Vegas' Kenny Pickett-led offense. Geno Smith will return as the Raiders' starting quarterback this upcoming Sunday, but that shouldn't change Mayer's fantasy outlook much. He is averaging just 2.0 catches, 15.3 yards, and zero touchdowns in games where Bowers is active.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears has dealt with a reduced role lately as Tony Pollard earns a heavy dose of touches. Pollard was relatively disappointing from Week 5, when Spears returned from injured reserve, through Week 13. However, in Week 14, he broke out against a relatively strong Browns run defense, and he had another big showing last Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. Through those two games, Pollard has totaled an absurd 265 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on 39 carries. As a result of his teammate's sudden breakout, Spears has been left in nothing more than a change-of-pace role. In his last two games, Spears has just 11 carries for 53 yards. He has two catches in each of those contests, setting a new season-low mark. We expect that this backfield will belong to Pollard once again in Week 16 against the Chiefs, leaving Spears off the fantasy radar. He ranks as the overall RB50 in RotoBaller's fantasy rankings for Week 16.
From RotoBaller
After a slow start to the 2025 season, Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams has exploded over the second half of the year. Across his last seven games, the 24-year-old has recorded 647 receiving yards and five touchdown catches. After earning more than seven targets just once over the season's first 12 weeks, he's been targeted by Lions quarterback Jared Goff at least nine times in three straight games. Williams could have a chance to continue his emergence in Week 16 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who profile as a favorable matchup on paper. Entering the week, Pittsburgh ranks 29th in the NFL in total receiving yards allowed (3,649). With Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) on Injured Reserve, Williams has emerged as the team's clear number two option in the passing game alongside wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams profiles as a low-end fantasy WR1 with high-end upside in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had a monster game in Week 15, recording 13 receptions for 164 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets against the Los Angeles Rams. The 26-year-old has earned double-digit targets in seven out of 14 games this season and ranks second in the NFL with 11 touchdown grabs. In Week 16, St. Brown gets a favorable matchup on paper against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Entering the week, Pittsburgh ranks 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (3,649). The Lions have also been trending towards a more pass-heavy offense in the second half of the season, as quarterback Jared Goff has attempted at least 33 passes in six out of the team's last seven games. Given the combination of likely target volume and his opponent, St. Brown could be in for another big performance and profiles as a must-start fantasy wide receiver in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had a disappointing game in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Rams, totaling just 58 scrimmage yards and failing to reach the end zone on 17 touches. On the bright side, the 23-year-old continues to feature heavily in the Detroit passing game. Gibbs earned seven targets in Week 15 and has seen 38 targets across five games since Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) was placed on Injured Reserve with a back injury. In Week 16, Gibbs and the Lions will host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense profiles as a mid-pack unit against the run, ranking 19th in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed (1,692). Gibbs should continue to see a heavy volume of touches as both a rusher and a receiver, and his big-play ability allows for explosive upside. Fantasy managers can view Gibbs as a must-start running back in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Kaleb Johnson continues to be one of the most disappointing rookies from the 2025 draft class. The 22-year-old Iowa product played a marginal role once again last week, amassing two carries for four rushing yards on a 3% snap share in the Steelers' win over the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. In total this year, he has 28 carries, 69 rushing yards, one catch, and nine receiving yards. He hasn't earned more than six touches in a single game, and he has played more than 12% of the offensive snaps in just two contests. It's not like Johnson has been relegated to special teams, either. He has just 11 special teams snaps this year and hasn't handled a single kick or punt return since a Week 2 blunder in the end zone that directly resulted in an opponent touchdown. Johnson and his fantasy managers are certainly ready to close the book on the 2025 season and turn the page to next year. With Kenneth Gainwell set to hit free agency in March, Johnson could have a chance to carve out a fantasy-relevant role behind Jaylen Warren in 2026.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard had just eight carries for 29 rushing yards in last week's loss to the New Orleans Saints. He also caught just one of his two targets for nine receiving yards. Fantasy managers were hoping that Hubbard would replicate his previous performance, in which he had 19 touches, 124 scrimmage yards, and one touchdown, but that wasn't the case. He mustered just 3.6 yards per carry, which was his lowest mark since Week 9, and only played 42% of the offensive snaps. The 26-year-old could be headed for a similar role this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as Rico Dowdle projects to lead Carolina's backfield once again. The Bucs have allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards to running backs in 2025, and while they've been porous against running backs in the passing game, Hubbard will likely share passing-down work with Dowdle. Hubbard has dropped to the overall RB43 spot in RotoBaller's fantasy rankings for Week 16. He can be benched in most leagues.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery enters his Week 16 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers on a hot streak, as he's recorded a rushing touchdown in three straight contests. However, Montgomery's recent usage paints a more worrying picture for his production. The 28-year-old has recorded double-digit touches just once in his last five games, and he's played fewer than 40% of the Lions' offensive snaps in six out of the last seven contests. Montgomery's limited workload makes him highly dependent on touchdowns for fantasy production, which may be hard to come by against Pittsburgh. Entering Week 16, the Steelers defense has allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, which ranks tied for fifth-fewest in the NFL. Montgomery profiles as a low-end flex option for fantasy managers in Week 16.
From RotoBaller