Wed Feb 5 9:59am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Hard to bet against Mahomes
It is hard to believe but here we are in the last week of the season. Time sure does fly, right? Super Bowl Sunday is one of the greatest days of the year but also a sad one, seeing the football season come to an end for another year. The good news is it seems the offseason is shorter and shorter every year, so don’t get too down after the game this weekend. Football will be back before you know it. Enjoy the game, though.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
I think the Super Bowl is going to be a great one. These teams are pretty evenly matched in my view but I just think the Chiefs get it done once again. They just find ways to win and Patrick Mahomes is that “X” factor in my view. Mahomes makes big play after big play in the playoffs and I expect more of the same this weekend. I can see Mahomes running more than normal - much like he has all these playoffs. He makes the big play for his team when needed. I think the Chiefs do enough to win the game, coming out on top 28-24.
I can see why the Rams are planning to trade Cooper Kupp. He is not getting any younger and hasn’t produced quite the same in recent years. Injuries are always a concern for Kupp. I still think he has a few good years left, though, and could be a big fantasy factor once again, depending on his landing spot. I would love to see him land in Buffalo, making him Josh Allen’s top target in the passing game. That seems like a great fit for Kupp. We’ll see.
The draft should be interesting this year. There isn’t quite the quarterback class of last year, but plenty of needy teams for a franchise quarterback. This could drive up the price of some players that shouldn’t be drafted so high. Now the running back class is stacked in my view with a lot of top options. You could see running backs taken sooner than in recent seasons and make an immediate impact in fantasy circles. The receiver class is a little top heavy in my view and drops off in a hurry from the top options. Last season was stacked with a host of elite options but that isn’t nearly the case this year. It should be another fun draft. I know I’m looking forward to seeing it all shake out.
It would be nice if the NFL was more like the NBA, seeing some real movement in the trade market. This just doesn’t happen in the NFL. It sure is exciting when elite players are dealt, though. I would love it if the NFL trade deadline had more movement. It just doesn’t happen and I don’t see that changing. I think the best chance of blockbuster trades come around the NFL draft. Hopefully, that is the case this year.
One of the most interesting players in free agency this year is Sam Darnold. I’m really anxious to see where he lands and the deal he gets. He had a breakout season but fizzled down the stretch, leading to more question marks about him as a top NFL starter. If he moves to a team with fewer weapons than the Vikings, can he still be that elite starter? That is the big question. It will be fascinating to see what teams view him as this offseason.
Lastly, have a great Super Bowl Sunday. This is the last Lineup Prep until before Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. It has been a great year and I appreciate everyone reading during the season. We have the best users on RTSports and I’m blessed to be part of this community.
HOT PLAYS
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Mahomes might have been a little quiet during the regular season for his standards but is showing up in the playoffs once again. He had his highest scoring fantasy game of the season against the Bills, scoring 33.55 fantasy points. Mahomes had three total touchdowns and threw for 245 yards. He just comes up big in the big game, so look for more of the same this week for Mahomes.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith has been pretty quiet in the playoffs, having four receptions for 66 yards in two games on eight targets. He has been the third option most weeks in the passing game of late. That could change this week, though, playing a Chiefs team he has historically produced some huge games. For his career, Smith has at least 99 yards all three of his games against the Chiefs. He has two 100-yard games of those three. Don’t get too worried about his down production of late. Smith can get it going this week.
COLD PLAYS
Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs. Hunt seems to have moved ahead of Isiah Pacheco for now, playing 58 percent of the snaps last week compared to 29 percent for Pacheco in their last game. He is the fantasy back to use in the Kansas City offense for now. But even with that said, he isn't a top fantasy play. His touchdowns are the only thing driving up his fantasy value. If you take away his scores each of the last two games, his numbers are very mediocre. He has 25 carries for 110 yards and just two catchers for eight yards. We aren’t sure he finds the end zone this week against the Eagles, a team that allowed the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. This makes Hunt an iffy fantasy play.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Chiefs. Hopkins has just a catch for 11 yards on three targets in the Chiefs two playoff games. He is a hard player to trust right now. Hopkins has not topped 50 yards in a game since Week 13. It could be more of the same this week for Hopkins. He gets an Eagles team that allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to receivers and was first overall against the pass during the regular season.
SLEEPERS
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs. There always seems to be a receiver that surprises in the Super Bowl. We think it might be Smith-Schuster this year. He played 58 percent of the snaps his last game, which was the third most for any receiver. He was on the field a lot and had two catches for 60 yards. If he can get that much playing time again this week, look for him to make a big play or two for the Chiefs.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles. Goedert has at least four receptions four straight games. He had seven receptions for 85 yards on eight targets and two rushes for 13 yards his last game against the Commanders. Goedert is getting his weekly chances since returning from injury in Week 18. We look for more of the same this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Eagles/Chiefs.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Fantasy Life Championship Live Stream (6-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen reports that wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (shoulder) is ok after leaving Wednesday's minicamp session with a shoulder injury. "He's fine. He absolutely could've gone back and played just bruised it a little bit," said Coen. He also noted that the 22-year-old was removed for precautionary reasons and was "completely cleared to play." Jacksonville can breathe a sigh of relief that their young, stud wideout avoided significant injury. It's still something to monitor, but it fortunately doesn't sound too serious. Barring health, Thomas Jr. is in an excellent position to build off a sensational rookie season that saw him produce a WR4 finish in PPR formats. Jacksonville's addition of Travis Hunter will dent his overall target upside, but shouldn't affect his production too much. The LSU product is a strong pick at the 1/2 turn in drafts.
From RotoBaller
When asked about the possibility of the New York Jets using a committee at running back this year, Breece Hall said, "I'm not obligated to anything. I've got to go and prove that I am the guy. I feel like I am a three-down back. Every day I'm going to prove I'm the best back on this roster and one of the best backs in the league." Hall will most definitely be a big part of the Jets' offense under new head coach Aaron Glenn, but he could lose touches to both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis if he doesn't take a step forward in 2025. The 24-year-old had 209 carries for 876 rushing yards (career-low 4.2 yards per carry) and five touchdowns in 16 starts, adding 57 catches for 483 yards and three more scores. Hall's fantasy stock is definitely down, but his pass-catching prowess gives him a high floor, and he could be an excellent value pick in 2025 as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Noah Brown (undisclosed) was carted off the field during mandatory minicamp practice on Wednesday with an undisclosed injury, according to The Washington Post's Nicki Jhabvala. Brown was able to walk off the field slowly under his own power before being carted to the locker room, but it's unclear what the severity of his injury is at this moment. The 29-year-old pass-catcher caught 35 of his 56 targets for 453 yards and one touchdown in 11 games (nine starts) in his first year with Washington last year and figures to open the 2025 campaign as the WR3 behind Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr. if he's fully healthy. Unfortunately, that role isn't going to make the former seventh-rounder (239th overall) by the Dallas Cowboys in 2017 fantasy relevant in standard 12-team fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders tight end Ben Sinnott has stood out during offseason practices, according to head coach Dan Quinn. The Commanders selected Sinnott in the second round (53rd overall) in last year's draft out of Kansas State, but he was buried on the depth chart all year and caught only five passes for 28 yards and a touchdown in 17 regular-season games (two starts) in his first year in the NFL. The 22-year-old may be standing out this offseason, but he'll have a long way to go to find a bigger role in Washington's passing attack as long as veteran TE Zach Ertz stays healthy. There's also John Bates to contend with if Ertz were to miss any time. Sinnott does have the size and speed to be worth watching if he does get a bigger opportunity, but for now, he's off the radar in standard-sized fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeff Legwold writes that the Denver Broncos figure to give new running back J.K. Dobbins a long look in the third-down role ahead of Week 1 of the 2025 regular season. Dobbins has dealt with multiple injuries since being drafted in 2020, mainly knee and Achilles injuries, but he had career-highs in rushing yards (905), catches (32) and receiving yards (153) last year with the Los Angeles Chargers and tied his career best with nine rushing touchdowns. And that was with him missing four games in 2024 with an MCL sprain. Javonte Williams led the Broncos in carries (139) and rushing yards (513) last year, but he's now in Dallas. Second-round rookie RB RJ Harvey is the favorite for lead-back duties in 2025, but Dobbins (if healthy) could be a nice RB3/flex option for fantasy managers in PPR leagues if he captures the full-time third-down role.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel was first up in team drills at mandatory minicamp for the second straight day on Wednesday and is going up against the first-team defense, according to The Chronicle Telegram's Scott Petrak. Fantasy managers shouldn't read too much into the Browns QB reps during offseason workouts, as head coach Kevin Stefanski said that rookies Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders will probably require more reps as they get acclimated to the NFL game. The Browns are conducting an open competition at QB, but the expectation is that it will come down to either veteran Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett. Gabriel, 24, stands at 5-foot-11, 205 pounds and could open the year as the No. 3 ahead of Sanders. He has plenty of experience playing for three different teams in college in addition to a strong arm and a good feel in the pocket. He's strictly a dynasty/keeper stash in 2025.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said that wide receiver Jauan Jennings (calf), who isn't practicing during mandatory minicamp this week, is expected to be ready for the start of training camp in late July. The Niners are playing it safe with Jennings and Ricky Pearsall (hamstring) with Brandon Aiyuk (knee) not expected to be ready until around midseason. Barring a setback with his calf in training camp, Jennings could be the team's WR1 to open the 2025 season with Aiyuk sidelined. The 27-year-old had a career year in 2024 with 77 receptions on 113 targets for 975 yards and six touchdowns in 15 games (10 starts) with Aiyuk suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 7. Jennings should at least have a bigger role again early on in 2025, but he could be the No. 3 target for quarterback Brock Purdy behind tight end George Kittle and second-year wideout Ricky Pearsall (hamstring).
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee) is likely to be placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list for training camp in late July as he continues his recovery from his ACL surgery, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. Aiyuk also injured his MCL in Week 7 and missed the rest of the 2024 campaign. After holding out in training camp last year, the 27-year-old was a major disappointment for fantasy managers before his injury, as he caught just 25 of 47 targets for 374 yards and no touchdowns a year after posting a career-high 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 16 regular-season games. The 27-year-old former first-rounder isn't expected to be ready in 2025 until around midseason, so it's not much of a surprise that he'll land on the PUP for camp. With Aiyuk out, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall (hamstring) and Demarcus Robinson are expected to start in three-wide sets.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner, who are both seeking contract extensions this offseason, are participating in the team's mandatory minicamp this week, according to Newsday's Al Iannazzone. Wilson is entering yet another season with a new quarterback, this time his old college teammate Justin Fields. The 24-year-old former 10th overall pick in 2022 out of Ohio State has put up three straight 1,000-yard seasons to begin his NFL career and had a career-best 101 catches and seven touchdowns in 17 starts in 2024. Wilson will be the team's unquestioned WR1 this year now that Davante Adams is gone, but his fantasy upside will depend on the efficiency of New York's offense and Fields. The Jets are expected to lean heavily on their ground game, making Wilson more of a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III (undisclosed), who suffered an undisclosed injury back in rookie minicamp, is expected to be ready to go for the start of training camp in late July, according to head coach Ben Johnson. The 21-year-old second-rounder has yet to sign his rookie deal, too, which is also playing a part in his absence from offseason workouts as he heads into his first year in the NFL. Burden is losing valuable reps to learn Johnson's offense, but when he does rejoin the team, he has an opportunity to be the Bears' No. 3 wideout in 2025 behind DJ Moore and second-year pass-catcher Rome Odunze. When you factor in tight ends Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland (shoulder) and running back D'Andre Swift, it's a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago. Burden's physicality and production in college make him a fine dynasty/keeper stash, but he could struggle for consistency in 2025.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie first-round tight end Colston Loveland (shoulder) hasn't taken part in any of the team's offseason workouts to this point after undergoing shoulder surgery in late January, but he remains on track to be ready to practice with the team in training camp this summer. The 21-year-old is nearly five months into a six-month recovery timetable and has been limited to stretching and light work during mandatory minicamp this week. He can run routes and catch passes but the remaining hurdle is regaining strength in his shoulder. It's good news that Loveland should be ready for training camp, but he's already missed valuable reps, and it's fair to be skeptical about his role in head coach Ben Johnson's offense with Cole Kmet still in the fold. Fantasy managers in redraft leagues shouldn't overpay for immediate production. Loveland is the TE18 in RotoBaller's preseason rankings.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said that wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (hamstring) was healthy to take part in mandatory minicamp this week, but the team is being careful with him and want him to be ready for training camp in late July. It makes sense for the Niners to play it safe with the former first-rounder since fellow wideout Brandon Aiyuk (knee) likely won't be ready for the start of the 2025 regular season. If the 24-year-old can return in training camp and develop chemistry with quarterback Brock Purdy, he'll have plenty of opportunity as a starter in three-wide sets in his sophomore season in the NFL. Pearsall missed the first six games of his rookie season after being shot in the chest, but he was more involved late in the year with Aiyuk out. If healthy, he should make much more noise in 2025. RotoBaller has Pearsall ranked as the No. 45 fantasy wideout.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (ankle) has been limited during practice due to an ankle injury, according to head coach Mike Macdonald. "But he should be fine," Macdonald added. It seems that Walker is always dealing with some kind of lower-body injury. The 24-year-old has yet to play a full season in the NFL and played just once in the final five weeks of the 2024 season due to an ankle injury before eventually finishing on Injured Reserve. It's yet another reminder that Walker is as injury-prone as they come as an RB2 in fantasy. When healthy, though, Walker has been productive, scoring 24 rushing touchdowns in 41 games over three seasons. Seattle is expected to lean heavily on their rushing attack in 2025, so Walker would be the primary beneficiary if he can stay on the field. Handcuffing Zach Charbonnet to him would be a wise move.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (groin) was taking part in the team's mandatory minicamp practice on Tuesday. After missing voluntary organized team activities recently, Kamara is back on the field with the Saints. The 29-year-old five-time Pro Bowler missed the final three games of the 2024 season with a groin injury, but he looks to be over the injury and should be a full-go for training camp this summer. The former third-rounder (67th overall) in 2017 surprisingly has never topped 1,000 yards rushing in his eight NFL campaigns, but he makes up for it in fantasy with his pass-catching prowess. Kamara has had at least 47 receptions in all eight seasons, which gives him a higher fantasy ceiling than most, especially in PPR leagues. Even though the Saints' offense could be mediocre given their QB situation, Kamara should be in play as an RB2 given his expected volume.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) didn't take part in the team's first mandatory minicamp practice on Tuesday and had a large brace on his right knee, according to ESPN's Jenna Laine. Head coach Todd Bowles said Wirfs is dealing with an offseason injury and that his absence from practice was "precautionary." "He'll be fine in training camp," Bowles said. Wirfs was the 13th overall pick by the Bucs in the 2020 NFL draft out of Iowa. He has started all 79 of the games that he's appeared in over his five NFL seasons and has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last four years, so he's pretty important for Tampa's offense as they enter yet another year with a new offensive coordinator. His injury will be something to keep an eye on in training camp this summer, but he should be ready to protect quarterback Baker Mayfield's blind side in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers star pass-rusher T.J. Watt is not expected to attend mandatory minicamp this week, a source tells The Athletic's Diana Russini. Watt is angling for a new contract extension, and although the two sides are fully expected to work something out before the start of the 2025 regular season this fall, it's something that could stretch into training camp this summer. Despite being 30 years old, the seven-time Pro Bowler and four-time All-Pro remains one of the most disruptive defensive players in the NFL when he's healthy. Watt is the heart and soul of Pittsburgh's physical defensive unit, and although he dropped to 11.5 sacks last year after posting a league-high 19 the year prior, he was still plenty productive in IDP fantasy formats with 61 tackles (40 solo), 19 tackles for loss, 27 QB hits, a league-high six forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in 17 regular-season starts.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals All-Pro defensive end Trey Hendrickson is not attending mandatory minicamp this week as he seeks a long-term contract extension, a source tells The Athletic's Jeff Howe. Hendrickson hasn't practiced at all with the team this season and said that he is willing to hold out into the regular season if the Bengals don't give him what he wants after back-to-back 17.5-sack seasons. The Bengals gave the 30-year-old four-time Pro Bowl pass-rusher permission to seek a trade back in March, but nothing materialized with the Bengals' asking price being extremely high. The Bengals struggled on defense in 2024 in spite of Hendrickson's elite pass-rushing contributions, but they are definitely a better team with him than without him. In IDP fantasy formats, Hendrickson's value could drop as the regular season approaches if he remains unsigned.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Diontae Johnson is in attendance at mandatory minicamp this week after not showing up for voluntary organized team activities. Although there is opportunity in Cleveland this year behind WR1 Jerry Jeudy, fantasy managers won't be holding their breath for the 28-year-old wideout after he played for three teams in 2024. He caught 30 of 58 targets for 357 yards and three touchdowns with the Panthers before being traded to the Ravens, where he caught just one pass in four games. Johnson finished the year in Houston and caught two passes for 12 yards. The former third-rounder (66th overall) by the Steelers in 2019 out of Toledo has regressed each season since his 1,000-yard campaign in 2021 in Pittsburgh. With one of the worst QB situations in the league on top of it, Johnson is barely ranked inside the top-100 wideouts at RotoBaller.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is prioritizing his health in 2025 and also said that the hip injury that ended his season in Week 17 of last year started to "feel a little better" in February and won't be an issue going forward. "Doing everything I can to stay available for the guys," Tagovailoa said after signing a four-year, $212.1 million contract extension. The third diagnosed concussion of his career sidelined him for four games last year before he was shut down for the final two games with a hip injury. In addition to the 27-year-old's missed time due to injuries in 2024, Miami's offense was less explosive in general, and Tagovailoa finished with 2,867 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and seven picks in 11 starts. He still has an excellent receiver combo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Tagovailoa's concussion history makes him an avoidable fantasy QB in standard 12-team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder) was shut down on May 29 after an "aggravation" to the AC joint in his surgically-repaired right shoulder and will be out indefinitely, according to head coach Shane Steichen. It's bad news for the former first-rounder after he suffered a severe AC joint sprain in October of 2023 in his rookie season that required season-ending surgery. The Athletic's James Boyd writes that the odds of Richardson one day becoming the face of the Colts franchise are dwindling by the day. "We'll see when he comes back. Not going to put a timetable for training camp on it, but when he does come back, we'll ease him into throwing, and we'll go from there," Steichen said. Although nothing will be decided this year, Richardson's stock is falling drastically, increasing Daniel Jones' odds of winning the starting gig under center.
From RotoBaller