Wide Receiver Strength of Schedule
Tue May 20 10:57am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Nacua could be difference maker
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the wide receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the wide receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the wide receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| WR SOS | ||
| 1. | Jacksonville | 547.38 |
| 2. | Denver | 550.61 |
| 3. | Cleveland | 551.4 |
| 4. | Dallas | 554.94 |
| 5. | Baltimore | 558.06 |
| 6. | Indianapolis | 560.39 |
| 7. | Los Angeles Chargers | 562.82 |
| 8. | New England | 563.19 |
| 9. | Minnesota | 563.73 |
| 10. | New York Giants | 564.74 |
| 11. | Buffalo | 564.94 |
| 12. | Las Vegas | 565 |
| 13. | Pittsburgh | 565.18 |
| 14. | Washington | 565.49 |
| 15. | New Orleans | 565.79 |
| 16. | Kansas City | 567.66 |
| 17. | Arizona | 567.75 |
| 18. | Detroit | 567.95 |
| 19. | Houston | 569.03 |
| 20. | Philadelphia | 569.34 |
| 21. | Tennessee | 571.27 |
| 22. | Miami | 573.88 |
| 23. | San Francisco | 574.04 |
| 24. | Atlanta | 574.71 |
| 25. | Tampa Bay | 574.75 |
| 26. | Cincinnati | 576.96 |
| 27. | Carolina | 578.65 |
| 28. | Chicago | 579.06 |
| 29. | Seattle | 579.19 |
| 30. | Green Bay | 580.79 |
| 31. | New York Jets | 580.93 |
| 32. | Los Angeles Rams | 581.01 |
The main thing that stands out from this list is some really big-time fantasy receivers have favorable schedules. The Rams have the easiest schedules for receivers. So Puka Nacua and newly acquired Davante Adams could be setup for huge seasons. Nacua is considered a top-10 fantasy receiver, so you have to like his chances for a monster year. And while some might be a little scared of Adams with a new team and top receiver to compete with for targets, we wouldn’t get too down on him because of that. The Rams have produced huge fantasy receivers in the past when two top options were on the team. Remember, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua had monster seasons together just a few years back.
Some other really big-name receivers with favorable schedules include Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.J. Moore. These guys all have top-five easy schedules for receivers. Wilson is the most intriguing, getting a chance to be the top dog again with Adams gone, And he gets his old college teammate, Justin Fields, throwing him passes. Wilson might have his best season to date.
Smith-Njigba also is very intriguing. He led the Seahawks in receiving last year but now is the clear top option with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett gone. Smith-Njigba could take his game to an even higher level this year, especially if Sam Darnold can be an improvement at quarterback for Seattle.
Lastly, the Bears have a lot of top options at receiver with Moore, Rome Odunze and rookie Luther Burden. These guys could be setup for big seasons in the Bears new offense. New head coach Ben Johnson has produced some huge fantasy receiver seasons with the Lions, so expectations will be high for this group of talented pass catchers with an easy schedule.
On the opposite end of things, the Jaguars have the most challenging schedule for receivers. Brian Thomas was huge his rookie season and should rack up the targets again in the Jaguars new offense. But you have to worry a little about a few more up-and-down games. The Jaguars offense, mainly the passing game, could struggle some weeks with this schedule.
The Broncos have the second most challenging schedule for receivers. Courtland Sutton had his best season in several years last year, which was very encouraging. And Marvin Mims showed some signs of life late last year. But there are some concerns for both guys because of a tough schedule. Plus, neither are big-time options to begin with, so going with them come draft day over a similar player with a more favorable schedule could be a mistake.
The Browns, Cowboys and Ravens round out the top five most challenging receiver schedules. Cleveland stands out from this group because they have all sorts of questions at quarterback. This makes Jerry Jeudy a bit of a risk - even after his best season to date. He might not be worth the risk
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy wide receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 15-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the wide receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big-game contests.
| WR PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | Baltimore | 515.17 |
| 2. | San Francisco | 532.83 |
| 3. | Houston | 536.93 |
| 4. | Kansas City | 539.57 |
| 5. | Jacksonville | 542.2 |
| 6. | New Orleans | 542.37 |
| 7. | Philadelphia | 546.15 |
| 8. | Cleveland | 546.47 |
| 9. | Chicago | 553.87 |
| 10. | Green Bay | 554.33 |
| 11. | Miami | 561.83 |
| 12. | Las Vegas | 564.7 |
| 13. | Cincinnati | 565.87 |
| 14. | Denver | 568 |
| 15. | Indianapolis | 569.95 |
| 16. | New York Giants | 570.73 |
| 17. | Tennessee | 571.63 |
| 18. | Arizona | 571.83 |
| 19. | Seattle | 572.67 |
| 20. | New England | 575.17 |
| 21. | Atlanta | 575.97 |
| 22. | Buffalo | 576.97 |
| 23. | Tampa Bay | 579.1 |
| 24. | Washington | 582.7 |
| 25. | Pittsburgh | 586.1 |
| 26. | Dallas | 587.2 |
| 27. | Detroit | 589.25 |
| 28. | Carolina | 591.05 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Chargers | 591.6 |
| 30. | New York Jets | 598.63 |
| 31. | Los Angeles Rams | 602.62 |
| 32. | Minnesota | 607.20 |
The Rams and Jets are two teams that made both lists for easy receiver schedules. Guys like Nacua, Adams and Wilson are looking even better because of this. We are really high on Wilson this year and seeing the favorable schedules for him makes us even more excited. He really could be a difference maker for fantasy teams.
And a Rams stack in big-game contests might be a good idea. Going with Matthew Stafford at quarterback and pairing him with Nacua at receiver could help produce a long playoff run for fantasy teams. Just something to consider some draft day. And with his current ADP, Stafford can be taken as a fantasy backup in most leagues.
The Vikings actually have the easiest playoff schedule for receivers. There are some concerns with Justin Jefferson this year because he has first-year starter J.J. McCarthy throwing him passes, but if those two can get on the same page, Jefferson could be huge in the fantasy playoffs. He is one of the few receivers capable of finishing first overall in fantasy receiver scoring.
One other team of note with a favorable playoff schedule for receivers is the Chargers. Ladd McConkey emerged as the go-to target for the passing game his rookie year. He is going to be that guy from day one and can improve on an already very good season. He is going to be a hot pick for a lot of fantasy teams, especially with an easy playoff schedule.
Baltimore and Jacksonville are teams in the top five of both lists for tough receiver schedules. The Ravens have a tough overall schedule, but it is hard to count out this offense from producing big on a weekly basis. It is tough to stop Lamar Jackson, so don’t get too concerned over a challenging schedule. Zay Flowers remains a solid target for fantasy owners. He will get plenty of weekly chances.
Now the Jaguars are more of a concern. This passing game could have some struggles along the way, especially if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t take a step forward. Right now, Thomas has an ADP of 13.5, making him a late first or early second-round pick. Is that too high? We’ll see.
The 49ers, Texans and Chiefs also have top-five difficult playoff schedules for receivers. Brandon Aiyuk might not be up to speed to start the year but should be in good shape for the playoffs. A tough schedule makes him even more of a risk, though.
The Texans beefed up at receiver this offseason, adding three talented players to the mix. These guys aren’t really marquee players, though, and could be competing for targets against each other. You might want to just steer clear of them for now. Nico Collins might be the only Texans receiver to roster if you want to make a deep run in the playoffs.
And the Chiefs had all sorts of injuries at receiver last year, but head into this season healthy with a lot of top options for Patrick Mahomes. Much like the Ravens, it is tough to bet against the Chiefs offense no matter the matchup. We wouldn’t get too scared of a tough playoff schedule for this group. Getting guys like Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy could still pay off this year.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | Texans running back Jawhar Jordan had 101 rushing yards, two catches and 17 receiving yards in a win against the Cardinals. Dynasty Analysis: Woody Marks left the game with an apparent ankle injury, paving the way for an unlikely contributor in the form of Jordan. Should Marks' injury prove to be serious, he would be a waiver priority as a possible starting running back in the playoffs if Nick Chubb is out again. Jordan's dynasty value is about zero but dynasty managers should pay attention here.
Dynasty | Cardinals tight end Trey McBride had 12 catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to the Texans. Dynasty Analysis: Remember that long touchdown-less streak McBride had a year ago? Well, that's long gone as the stud tight end has put it all together this year with 105 catches for 1,071 yards and ten scores on the season. You can split hairs on who you might want between McBride and Brock Bowers but McBride clearly has Hall of Fame talent and has put on a show this season. He'll remain an elite level target this off-season in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Philip Rivers completed 18-of-27 passes for 120 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a loss to the Seahawks. Dynasty Analysis: Rivers did his best to pull off the impossible but fell short as Seattle beat the Colts via a late field goal. It's hard to watch this and believe Riley Leonard couldn't have at least done this much but that's beside the point. Rivers looks like a decent stopgap and emergency option but he's pretty far off the dynasty radar based on the fact the Colts don't seem to trust his arm strength.
Dynasty | Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase had ten catches for 132 yards in a loss against Baltimore. Dynasty Analysis: The Bengals were shut out in this one but at least Chase did his thing. This hasn't been near the season many dynasty managers hoped for but did post his third consecutive season with 100 catches and has done what he could with Joe Burrow out for most of the year. He'll be a WR1 moving forward and his dynasty value really hasn't taken much of a hit this season.
Dynasty | Jets wide receiver Adonai Mitchel had six catches for 58 yards and one touchdown in a loss to the Jaguars. Dynasty Analysis: The Jets were destroyed in this one but Mitchell has certainly looked like a different player since coming over in the Sauce Gardner trade. While not a weekly lineup consideration, Mitchell has re-established himself as a roster lock in dynasty leagues.
Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson caught four passes on five targets for 66 yards, which led the way for his team in a 34-26 victory against the Dallas Cowboys. The veteran tight end appears to be developing a rapport with young quarterback J.J. McCarthy, with whom he connected for a touchdown the week prior. As the Vikings have struggled massively throughout portions of the season, Hockenson has been a fantasy disappointment who still ranks outside the top-20 PPR tight ends. But with Minnesota prioritizing its running game and tight ends in recent weeks, Hockenson will look to continue his strong finish in Week 16 at the New York Giants.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor found the end zone twice to help his team score a 34-26 victory against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. Nailor caught three of five targets for 47 yards and was on the receiving end of both of quarterback J.J. McCarthy's passing touchdowns. The Michigan State product has developed a nice connection with his quarterback, with whom he also connected on a key fourth-down conversion that led to a touchdown later on the same drive. For fantasy purposes, however, Nailor remains a tough sell. The Vikings have raved about Nailor, but as a secondary pass catcher, he's still averaging fewer than two catches per game as Minnesota prepares to play the New York Giants in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
For the second straight week, the Minnesota Vikings put together an excellent offensive day with modest output from wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who was held to only two catches in his team's 34-26 victory against the Dallas Cowboys. The Vikings targeted Jefferson a team-high eight times, but the result was two catches for 22 yards. It was a hard-luck night for Jefferson, who caught a touchdown from quarterback J.J. McCarthy that was negated by an illegal formation penalty in the first half, missed out on a would-have-been big play when McCarthy overthrew him in the fourth quarter, and then dropped a touchdown later on the same drive. Managers who survived into Week 16 will see Jefferson in a favorable setting against the New York Giants, yet with just six catches in the past three games, it's getting more and more difficult to trust Minnesota's offense to get Jefferson the ball.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders completed 18 of his 35 pass attempts for 177 yards and threw three interceptions in Sunday's 31-3 loss to the Chicago Bears. Sanders, scoring just 3.48 fantasy points on Sunday, is building connections with fellow rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. and rookie wide receiver Isaiah Bond. That pass-catching duo accounted for 77.4% of Sanders' total passing yards and 50% of his completions for the day. Even though the rookie quarterback was under siege all afternoon in Chicago, he was able to complete five of his six passes when blitzed. However, his overall completion average was just 51.4% for the day, one of the worst in the league. Sanders draws the Buffalo Bills defense in Week 16, which is a tough matchup for quarterbacks despite their middling quarterback pressure rate of 34.4% and a 6.8% team sack rate. Looking ahead, Sanders is likely to remain a desperation deep-league Superflex option with an unreliable floor for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix led his team to an 11th straight win on the season in the Week 15 matchup versus the Green Bay Packers, defeating them 34-26. Despite playing against a difficult defense, Nix showed up for what was one of his best games of the season, completing 23 of 34 pass attempts for 302 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and added 10 yards rushing on seven carries. This is precisely what fantasy managers were hoping for in the first round of the playoffs from Nix, who had been struggling to reach QB1 output since Week 8. Getting hot at the right time, Nix will face the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Troy Franklin provided an efficient day in the Week 15 34-26 win over the Green Bay Packers. With Broncos wide receiver Pat Bryant (hamstring) out this week, Franklin was able to reestablish himself as a force in the offense with six catches on six targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. The catches and yardage were second best on the team, trailing only Courtland Sutton. After seeing a dip in production and all-around involvement since the Broncos' bye week, this could be the game he needed to pry his way back onto the field. Keep an eye on Bryant's availability for Week 16, but Franklin could be a WR2 again against the Jacksonville Jaguars after this efficient performance.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie running back RJ Harvey had another high-volume day in a 34-26 victory over the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. Knowing this would be a challenging matchup for Harvey to excel in, he still put up 65 yards on 19 carries, one touchdown, and one lost fumble. The most surprising statistic is that Harvey saw just one target in the passing game after averaging over four per game in the past five matchups. The Packers keyed heavily on Harvey in this game, but he still found a way to get into the endzone for the 10th touchdown of his rookie season. Harvey will try to find more efficiency against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jags running back Travis Etienne had 32 rushing yards, three catches, 73 receiving yards and three touchdowns in a win against the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: In one of the strangest fantasy performances of recent memory, Etienne scored all three times through the air and did it on just three catches. It's been an odd season for Etienne, who has seen his workload fluctuate but also seen him average 4.5 yards per carry and post a career high with 12 touchdowns. Etienne will remain a solid option moving forward and while Bhayshul Tuten looks promising, Etienne has done enough to keep his dynasty ranking pretty static thus far.
Dynasty | Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed 16-of-28 passes for 189 yards with no touchdowns and one interception before leaving with a torn ACL in a loss to the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Well, that'll cap off a disappointing season for the Chiefs, who will now miss the playoffs. Mahomes will obviously miss the rest of this season and his availability for the start of next year has to be in doubt considering we're in the middle of December here. This is a serious blow to Mahomes' dynasty value as he's now 30 years old. Mahomes will end a solid season with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions but there are now some doubts about his long-term dynasty value as he'll face a long recovery.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders completed 18-of-35 passes for 177 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Dynasty Analysis: He added 24 rushing yards on the day. Sanders has been up and down since the start and today was certainly a down one. The Browns are currently 3-11 and their season is lost, so they'll still give him the rest of the year to showcase his skills. Sanders remains a highly volatile dynasty asset and one whose value decreased again today.
Dynasty | Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 96 rushing yards and one touchdown in a win over the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Chris Rodriguez was a late scratch, so "Bill" was able to finally have the backfield to himself. He had one of his best days with nearly 100 yards, JCM has recorded 646 yards and five touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry but this also has to be considered a disappointing season overall as he was expected to carry the mail after Washington traded Biran Robinson. After being relatively ineffective, JCM lost his job to Rodriguez and has been in the shadows the past few weeks. His value is hard to really peg as the Washington running back corps will undoubtedly look different next season.
Dynasty | Las Vegas running back Ashton Jeanty had 35 rushing yards, four catches, and seven receiving yards in a loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: The Raiders offense is awful and Jeanty hasn't done much to help it this season. On the year, Jeanty now has just 700 rushing yards (on 3.5 yards per carry), 49 catches, 266 receiving yards, and eight total touchdowns on the season. It's abundantly clear the Raiders had a lot of other needs other than running back this off-season and Jeanty has been the victim of circumstance in the process. Still, he also hasn't looked great and the idea he was the next big thing has faded pretty hard this season. Perhaps a new coaching staff (which seems inevitable) will help his value moving forward.
Dynasty | Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 12-of-15 passes for 175 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in a blowout win over the Raiders. Dynasty Analysis: Apparently all it takes to bounce back from a bad game is facing the Raiders, who are now 2-12 on the year. Hurts will take it after last week's turnover disaster. While he hasn't been quite as dominant as in year's past, Hurts still looks like an elite option as we hit the playoff stride. His dynasty value has dropped a tick this season but there's little to worry about.
Dynasty | Broncos quarterback Bo Nix completed 23-of-34 passes for 302 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Green Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Nix has simply proven last year was no fluke as he's posted 3,256 yards with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year. While more of a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 than an elite-level option, Nix looks like a really solid dynasty option in both the short and long-term. His value has been solidified this season.
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott connected on 23 of his 38 passing attempts for 294 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions in Week 15 against the Minnesota Vikings. Prescott ran once for two yards as well.
Fantasy Spin: For the third time this season, Prescott finished without a touchdown pass. He also came finished with 294 yards, breaking a three-game streak of throwing for 300-plus. The loss effectively ends any lingering hopes that Dallas had of reaching the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of juice they bring into a tough matchup with a Chargers team still challenging for the AFC West crown. With the weapons at his disposal, Prescott remains a possible QB1, though facing the NFL's third-ranked pass defense introduces some serious downside.
From TheHuddle
