The Weekly Bender: Early NFL Best Ball ADP Risers & Fallers

Fri Jun 27 4:32pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer

Rice is moving up drafts

As the calendar flips to July and NFL training camps get ready to open, fantasy football best ball drafts are kicking into high gear. The Beat Bender $10,000 Best Ball Tournament is already 30 percent full and the $25,000 Best Ball Championships are filling drafts every single day. We should see record-setting numbers of best ball participants by the time the 2025 NFL season opens.

With so many people joining the fray, the need to step up your research becomes even more prevalent. But it’s not just about studying the recent news, the training camp reports and the NFL team depth charts. You need to study the draft trends as well. Who is on the rise? Which players are falling down draft boards? Where are the best pockets to find value? This is why we study the fantasy football ADP and trends.

While RT Sports does a tremendous job with their ADP, allowing you to study it for each specific contest, we’re going to focus today on the best ball trends. Playing in large-field tournaments like these requires a different mindset. People stack in best ball way more than they do in season-long leagues and everyone is typically shooting for upside. That’s not to say some of the high-floor, “boring” players don’t get drafted, but, for the most part, people are looking to shoot the moon. No one wins the grand prize playing it safe.

So, let’s take a look at some of the more recent ADP risers and fallers to see just how much interest we may or may not have.

ADP Risers:

Rashee Rice, WR Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 47.14)

The rise of Rashee Rice and his push into the top-50 overall has always been expected, but he’s taking a meteoric trip that could land him in the second round of some drafts. That does seem a little high, given how Patrick Mahomes has routinely spread the ball around over the last few seasons, but the talent is off-the-charts and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him open the year as the Chiefs No. 1 receiver and be an absolute target-monster. We’ve been hearing a lot out of Chiefs camp that they want to push the ball downfield more and with concerns of Travis Kelce’s recent decline and Marquise Brown’s injury history, the groupthink continues to push Rice up boards everywhere. Enjoy the price now and stock up while you can. If he does push into the second round, the overall value will lessen.

Justin Fields, QB New York Jets (ADP: 102.37)

Organize the ADP by position and you’ll see Fields coming off the board as QB13 and one of the biggest risers at quarterback. A month ago, he was almost an afterthought, but as draft season has kicked in and more people are seeking out mobile quarterbacks with rushing upside, Fields has vaulted past names like Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert. He can be a very polarizing player these days as the college crowd still adores him while those who had their hopes and expectations crushed in seasons past, don’t want anything to do with him. But anyone who has played this game knows a quarterback who can rush for 50 yards and a touchdown adds so much to your overall fantasy production. Fields has a first-time offensive coordinator looking to make a splash, he’s been reunited with his old college chum, Garrett Wilson, and everything is being designed to cater to his strengths. Even with the ADP increase, Fields should produce strong value in return.

J.K. Dobbins, RB Denver Broncos (ADP: 129.56)

The rise in ADP can easily be attributed to Dobbins’ recent signing with the Broncos. While most of us were worried about deciding between Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin as the complement to R.J. Harvey, Dobbins landing in Denver actually gives us a little more security in how we view the team’s backfield. It was always going to be shared in some capacity but the expected split and the roles both he and Harvey play should allow for some standalone value for the veteran. Dobbins can be elusive in the outside zone, but he is also a solid pass-catcher. If we’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that Broncos OC Joe Lombardi loves throwing to the running backs. In fact, his backfields have ranked among the top five for running back receptions over the last 18 seasons. That’s crazy when you think about it, but not so much when you look at the numbers for guys like Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler, both of whom thrived in Lombardi’s scheme.

ADP Fallers:

Sam LaPorta, TE Detroit Lions (ADP: 60.08)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Remember this time last year when the ADP told you to take LaPorta in the second round? How’d that turn out? But while LaPorta’s value was nowhere to be found after drafting him that high, we’re content to go back to the well this year at his current price tag of a fifth-round pick. Maybe even the sixth or seventh, depending on how forgiving your league mates can be. The Lions didn’t do anything to bolster their receiving corps, so LaPorta should remain the third-most targeted pass-catcher on the team. My preference might be to take Trey McBride or George Kittle before him, but I’ve had no issues taking him at a slight discount and hope that last season was an aberration.

Stefon Diggs, WR New England Patriots (ADP: 109.75)

As the kids say these days, “buy the dip.” Sure, there have been some reports that mention the possibility of Diggs missing the first few games of the regular season and maybe that’s why we’re seeing the drop in ADP, but my research hasn’t found that to be of much concern. It was an errant report from one of the local Boston papers that was suggesting Diggs’ value even IF he were to miss time. But it doesn’t sound like he’s landing on the PUP list and should be good to go for Week 1. To get an alpha receiver at this kind of a discount is huge and you really don’t need to shy away from it. Should Diggs see at least 120 targets, he is going to provide you with major value. Drake Maye is already looking to make a splash with his new toy, so for best ball purposes, it’s a no-brainer for me.

Anthony Richardson, QB Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 172.17)

Now this is a dip I’m not buying. Sure, the pick is almost free at this point, but with all signs pointing toward Daniel Jones being the starter, I’m not so sure it’s worth the roster spot should he even start a small handful of games. Richardson is not a strong passer and for you to get any value in a best ball contest, he’s going to have to rush for 100 yards or multiple touchdowns to make any sort of an impact. We tried, people. We tried. But there’s no reason to make the same mistake this year that we made over the last two seasons.

Bender out!

The Weekly Bender: Early NFL Best Ball ADP Risers & Fallers

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