Lineup Prep: Week 1

Wed Sep 3 11:02am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Walker can have huge Week 1

It is a little hard to believe but the start of the season is here. And I say it every season, but there isn’t a better time of the year to be a fantasy owner. You get to see your team finally in action, seeing if your hard work has paid off. There is high hopes for all fantasy teams. And now you get to see if your calls were right or wrong. . . .at least for a week. So good luck to you this season. Here is to hoping you have a fantastic year.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

First off, don’t forget that we not only have a Thursday game as usual this week but the Chiefs and Chargers are playing Friday night in Brazil. The games are spread out again, so just keep that in mind when setting lineups. Make sure you have your players in there on time!

So I like to pick my Super Bowl teams every year in this column. I will do it again. Let’s start with the AFC. I’m not sure the Chiefs can do it again. They are another year older and while I think the passing game will be better this year, I still worry about the offensive line and the defense taking a step back, being another year older. I think the Bills get over the hump this year and knock off the Chiefs. Buffalo is a really complete team. I still with they had a true No. 1 receiver for Josh Allen, but the Bills can get by without that fine.

The NFC has plenty of contenders as well, including the Lions, Vikings, Bucs, Rams and Commanders. But I like the Eagles to repeat. It is so hard to repeat but the talent of the Eagles stands out above the rest. Much like the Bills, I consider Philadelphia the most complete team in the NFC. The Eagles can get it done on both sides of the ball at a high level.

And I will go with the Bills to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl by a score of 31-24. It should be a fun season and I’m looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.

One of my biggest wild cards this year is Travis Hunter. How are the Jaguars going to use their talented playmaker? You don’t use that high of a pick on a player and not play him early and often. I just wonder how often he will be on the field offensively for him to reach his true fantasy potential. It will be interesting to see how he is utilized this season.

I have a group of players I’m all-in on this year. They are Tet McMillan, Calvin Ridley, Omarion Hampton and Braelon Allen. I have shares of these guys all over and believe they will have big seasons. If McMillan falters, I might be in trouble. I think I have him in about every league. I just love his ceiling, though. He is the true top target for the Panthers that should rack up the weekly targets. I could see him posting numbers similar to that of Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas from their rookie seasons last year. Giddy up!

Rookie tight end Tyler Warren is shooting up draft boards, maybe more than anyone else I’m seeing right now. I get it. He is a talented player and looks to be a big part of the offense. Plus, rookie tight ends have done really well in recent years. But you have to worry about his quarterback situation. Do you really feel comfortable for Warren to have a huge season with Daniel Jones throwing him passes? That scares the heck out of me. I’m not sure he is going to live up to where he is currently going in drafts.

I’m also a little worried about the Lions offense this year. They lost a ton of coaches this offseason and the offensive line is banged up right now. I would not be surprised if this unit got off to a bit of a slow start. I do think they can get it going but maybe not at the same level of last year. That unit was something else last season.

One offense I’m really excited about this season is Denver. I think the Broncos could really put up some numbers with Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton leading the way. I think this duo could be one of the best in football. And adding Evan Engram and R.J. Harvey to the mix in the passing game bodes well for Nix as well. He is going to be a good one this year. I expect big things from the Broncos.

Chris Rodriguez is really undervalued right now. He goes several rounds behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt in recent drafts but is ahead of him on the depth chart. I think Croskey-Merritt could emerge at some point, but Rodriguez is the better fantasy back right now. I look for him to get more work early in the season. And if he plays well, Rodriguez could continue to play a big role in the offense.

News and Notes: Panthers receiver Hunter Renfrow is listed as a starter on their first Week 1 depth chart. He is ahead of Xavier Legette right now despite just re-signing a few days ago. . . .The Jaguars listed running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby as co-starters on their Week 1 depth chart. It is anyone’s guess how this situation plays out. . . . .Rookie Elic Ayomanor is listed as the starting receiver opposite Calvin Ridley for the Titans. He is ahead of Van Jefferson on the depth chart.

HOT PLAYS

Emeka Ebuka, WR, Bucs. With Chris Godwin sidelined, Ebuka opens his rookie season as the starter alongside Mike Evans. Ebuka looked fantastic in camp and preseason action, giving the team high hopes for a very productive rookie season. And he opens the year against the Falcons, a team that allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers last season. Look for the Bucs to throw early and often against this secondary, giving Ebuka a chance for big opener.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard is the unquestioned lead back for the Panthers this year and should get a ton of work in that role. He is a three-down volume back, which is music to fantasy owners' ears. Hubbard plays a Jaguars team that really struggled against the run last year, allowing 132.6-rushing yards per game. Hubbard is setup for a strong Week 1 in a tasty matchup.

Drake London, WR, Falcons. London had a breakout season last year and was even better once Michael Penix took over as the starter, averaging 23 fantasy points per game while Penix was throwing him passes. So you could see London even building on his already big season. He should start fast in 2025, playing the Bucs this week. Tampa is really stout against the rush but allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers last season. London had 16 receptions for 188 yards and a touchdown in two games against Tampa last year.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. If Lawrence is going to have a breakout season, this year seems his best chance. He has a new quarterback-friendly head coach and some more weapons to work with offensively in the passing game. Lawrence is setup for success in 2025. And you have to like his Week 1 matchup against the lowly Panthers. Carolina was dreadful against the pass last year, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Look for Lawrence to get plenty of chances to air it out against this secondary.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. The Seahawks rushing attack looks dominant under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who has a history of producing some big-time rushing offenses. The Seahawks ran over opponents in the preseason, which was very encouraging for Walker. He just needs to stay on the field now. Injuries are always a concern for him. But as long as he is healthy and playing, you have to like his chances to produce a huge game any given week. And a game this week against the 49ers bodes well for Walker in Week 1. Walker found the end zone in each of his games against the 49ers last year. And San Francisco allowed the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

COLD PLAYS

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears. Williams had a huge ceiling for the coming season, playing in a new offense with a new coach and plenty of top talent surrounding him. We aren’t sure he is a plug-and-play player just yet, though. He will need to show some consistency on the field before that happens. His opener against the Vikings is a scary one. Minnesota had one of the better defenses in football last year, especially against the pass. Minnesota allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last year. Williams had fewer than 13 fantasy points his last game against Minnesota. We might steer clear of him in Week 1.

James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook held out much of camp and the preseason before finally getting his new contract. But you have to wonder if that impacts his play a little this year, at least early in the season. He could start a little slow. And a matchup against a very good Ravens rush defense doesn’t bode well for him. In two games against the Ravens last year, Cook had 26 carries for 106 yards without a touchdown.

Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings. Thielen got dealt to the Vikings right before the season and will be the starter alongside Justin Jefferson until the return of Jordan Addison from his suspension. We aren’t sure that means Thielen is an automatic great play, though. He is more of a matchup play. And a game this week against the Bears is not great one for Thielen. Chicago allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers last year.

Isaac TeSlaa, WR, Lions. TeSlaa garnered a lot of buzz this preseason with his great play. He earned the No. 3 job for the Lions and will get plenty of playing time his rookie season. But you have to remember, he has a ton to compete with for targets in Detroit and is likely to be hit or miss for fantasy owners because of this. Much like Thielen, he is a matchup play for fantasy teams. He gets the Packers in Week 1, a team that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers last season.

Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys. Williams opens the season as the Cowboys No. 1 back. It still isn’t certain how this running back room plays, though. It could be more of a committee. But even if it isn’t a committee, Williams is a scary play in Week 1 against the Eagles. Philadelphia is very good against the run, allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs last year. Williams will be an iffy fantasy play to open the year.

SLEEPERS

Michael Penix, QB, Falcons. Penix got some play late last season and showed enough to make him the full-time starter going forward. He finished last year on a high note, showing his potential. He scored 29.1 fantasy points in Week 18. He starts from day one this year and opens against the Bucs. Tampa can stop the run but struggles against the pass, allowing the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year. Penix is a good streaming play to open the season.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns. Tillman is going to be one of those boom-or-bust players for the coming season. He is going to disappear some weeks but you could see him going off in others. He has big-game potential in this offense, especially with Joe Flacco starting. This week could be a good time to use Tillman. The Browns get the Bengals in what should be a high-scoring game. And you could see the Browns playing from behind, giving Tillman even more chances to make some big plays.

Jordan Mason, RB, Vikings. The Vikings are going to rotate backs this year with Aaron Jones and Mason splitting the load. All you heard were positive reports from Mason during camp, giving you hope the team will use him plenty this coming year. He could have a breakout season. You could see the Vikings employing a run-heavy attack in Week 1. It is J.J. McCarthy’s first start at quarterback and they get the Bears, a team that was good against the pass but poor against the run last season. Chicago allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.

Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. Henry gets overlooked at times, especially since he is older and not that flashy compared to some of the other younger options at tight end. But he is going to get his targets in this new Patriots offense, an offense that historically targets the tight end. Henry has a favorable matchup against a so-so Raiders secondary to open his season. Plus, Las Vegas allowed the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends last year.

Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals. Wilson is another one of those wild cards at receiver. You just never know what you are going to get with him. But he is starting and plays in a good passing attack. He is going to have some big games. He gets the lowly Saints this week, a team that might be the worst in football. You could see the Cardinals putting up some points against them, making Wilson an intriguing streaming option.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Cowboys/Eagles, Chiefs/Chargers, Panthers/Jaguars, Bengals/Browns, Bucs/Falcons, Lions/Packers,. Ravens/Bills.

Low Scoring Games: Steelers/Jets, Dolphins/Colts.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 1

The Paur Report