RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 1

Thu Sep 10 10:08pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Related photo caption below

Shough is worth a look this week


With the Wednesday and Thursday games in the books, it's time to turn our attention to the main slate for Week 1. There are some great matchups among them, including the culmination of the week on Monday Night Football when the Chiefs host the Broncos. Let's highlight some players to target at each position for your DFS lineups, as well as someone to possibly avoid based on their matchups.

Quarterbacks

Tyler Shough, NO at DET ($5,600): There is value to be had at quarterback this week. One option that won't destroy your budget is Shough, who played well once taking over as the Saints starting quarterback last season. Not only did he complete 67.6% of his passes, but his average target depth was 8.3 yards. Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) beginning the season on IR is a disappointment, but Shough still has dangerous weapons in Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson. In a game in which the Saints might be forced to throw a lot to keep up with the Lions' offense, Shough could thrive.

Malik Willis, MIA at LV ($5,300): Willis is receiving his first opportunity to be a full-time starter in the NFL. What makes him an appealing DFS option is his ability to do damage with his legs. When he started Week 17 against the Ravens last year, he ran nine times for 60 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins don't have great options at wide receiver, so Willis might not hesitate to take off when he has an opportunity.

Player to Avoid

Jayden Daniels, WAS at PHI ($6,500): Injuries limited Daniels to seven games last season. When he was on the field, he wasn't great. He completed just 60.6% of his passes, compared to his 69.0% completion rate during his rookie season. The Commanders already suffered a significant loss on their offensive line with OT Laremy Tunsil on injured reserve. Daniels could be under pressure a lot against the talented Eagles' front, making him a potential bust at this salary. Last season, the Eagles only allowed 19.1 points per game.

Running Backs

Omarion Hampton, LAC vs. ARI ($6,800): Although injuries limited Hampton to nine games last season, he showed his versatility when he was on the field. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry and had a 21.0% broken tackle rate. He was also targeted 35 times. Now with Mike McDaniel as his offensive coordinator, he could be poised for a breakout campaign. The Cardinals allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs last season, making Hampton one of the more appealing running backs for this slate.

Cam Skattebo, NYG vs. DAL ($5,800): The Cowboys were almost as bad as the Cardinals, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs last season. Their defense has the potential to be better, getting a full season of Quinnen Williams and having first-round pick Caleb Downs in their secondary. Still, it's difficult to resist Skattebo at his salary. In six games in an expanded role before suffering his season-ending ankle injury, he posted 401 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 177 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. Expect him to have a leading role out of the backfield again.

Player to Avoid

RJ Harvey, DEN at KC ($5,500): The Chiefs are a difficult matchup. Last season, they allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game in the league. Harvey already finds himself in a battle for carries, having to share duties with J.K. Dobbins. Even rookie Jonah Coleman could emerge as the team's favorite option when they get in close. Combine a running back by committee situation with a bad matchup and Harvey is someone to avoid.

Wide Receivers

Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. ARI ($5,900): McConkey had a 22.7% target share on his way to posting over 1,100 receiving yards as a rookie. The addition of Keenan Allen resulted in his target share dropping to 19.6% last season. His production declined across the board, disappointing many who selected him early in redraft fantasy football leagues. Now that Allen is on the Colts, McConkey should again step into the top wide receiver role for the Chargers. It would not be a surprise if his salary rises as the season moves along, so take advantage of it being this low while you can.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ at TEN ($5,800): Not much went right for Wilson last season. He only appeared in seven games because of injury, and the Jets were a disaster at quarterback. Prior to that, Wilson began his career with three straight seasons of at least 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards. Geno Smith isn't a top-tier quarterback, but the Jets having him under center this year is a major upgrade compared to their options last season. He's good enough to help Wilson thrive against a suspect Titans' secondary.

Player to Avoid

Rashee Rice, KC vs. DEN ($6,400): Patrick Mahomes (knee) will be on the field for Week 1, which is certainly a boost for Rice. However, this matchup is about as bad as it gets against the Broncos. They gave up the seventh-fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, but the stat that really stands out is that wide receivers only posted six touchdowns against them. When Rice faced them in Week 11 last season, he was held to 38 yards on six receptions.

Tight Ends

Colston Loveland, CHI at CAR ($5,300): Brock Bowers (knee) was going to be the top pick here for a great matchup against the Dolphins, but the news broke Wednesday that he is expected to miss at least the first one or two games of the season. Let's now turn our attention towards Loveland, who saw his role expand as his rookie season moved along. Including the playoffs, he had at least 10 targets in each of his final four games. During that span, he recorded 28 receptions for 378 yards and two touchdowns. He could be a matchup problem for the Panthers, who gave up the third-most yards per target to tight ends last season.

Isaiah Likely, NYG vs. DAL ($4,200): Likely followed head coach John Harbaugh from the Ravens to the Giants. No longer competing with Mark Andrews for targets, he has the potential to be an integral part of the Giants' offense. There is a path to Likely finishing the season second to Malik Nabers in targets. With Nabers potentially limited in Week 1, even more targets could go Likely's way. The wide receiver options behind Nabers are Darnell Mooney, Odell Beckham Jr. and Malachi Fields, which isn't exactly an inspiring trio.

Player to Avoid

Dalton Kincaid, BUF at HOU ($4,600): The Texans allowed just 17.4 points per game last season and once again have one of the best defenses in the league. They thrived at defending the pass, including holding tight ends to the fourth-lowest yards per target (6.30). Likely has a better matchup, a potentially larger target share and a lower salary. There's no reason to take a chance on Kincaid here.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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Player Notes
Emeka Egbuka Oct 5 4:20pm ET
Emeka Egbuka

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said that the team has to do a better job of getting the ball to wide receivers Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr., per Pewter Report. Both Tampa Bay wideouts have gotten off to underwhelming starts to the season. Egbuka has recorded 15 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown on 24 targets, while Godwin Jr. has hauled in 16 catches for 142 yards and zero touchdowns on 18 targets. Even if the team makes a more concerted effort to get the ball in the hands of its playmakers, Egbuka and Godwin Jr. could be facing an uphill battle to consistent fantasy production. Tampa Bay started undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback in Week 4, who threw for 148 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions on 27 pass attempts. With QB1 Baker Mayfield (thumb) potentially out for several more weeks due to a thumb injury, the fantasy outlook currently looks bleak for Buccaneers pass-catchers.

From RotoBaller

Cyrus Allen Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Cyrus Allen

Dynasty | Free agent wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been linked to the Kansas City Chiefs. Dynasty Analysis: The reunion tour of Hill with Kansas City almost makes too much sense not to happen as the Chiefs lost both Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton to injuries this week. While Rice looks like he'll be back at some point, Thornton looks to be gone for the season. Hill isn't the same player he once was but it's hard to look at him and not think he's an upgrade over young players like Cyrus Allen. Kansas City is poised to compete and adding Hill could help as long as he's not a distraction. Stay tuned as it sounds like Hill is negotiating with a few different teams.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Keon Coleman Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Keon Coleman

Dynasty | Bills receiver Keon Coleman had six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in the Bills loss to the Patriots. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman is starting to look like the player the Bills thought they drafted back in 2024. His seven targets were second most on the team and he was clearly part of the game plan. Coleman has had an odd season where he's alternated between one and six catches in each of the first four games. If he doesn't have one catch next week, perhaps he's turned the corner - his dynasty value would follow suit.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Braelon Allen Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Braelon Allen

Dynasty | Jets running back Braelon Allen had 59 rushing yards, two catches and eight receiving yards in a loss to the Bears. Dynasty Analysis: The Jets ran 32 plays on the day compared to 89 for Chicago. They also lost the time of possession battle 43-17. Those are truly amazing stats for an NFL team. In short, Allen really didn't have much of a chance. On the plus side, he did have all the running back carries on the day with 14. Should Breece Hall return next week, Allen will return to fantasy benches. If not, Allen should be used as a RB2/flex player moving forward, despite a bad day here.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Case Keenum Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Case Keenum

Dynasty | Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent completed 25-of-34 passes for 268 yards with no touchdowns and one interception in a win over the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: This wasn't exactly a fantasy performance for the ages but Bagent controlled the game and simply kept the Jets off the field all day. While Case Keenum put up better numbers last week, it's hard to see Bagent losing any ground after showing good composure and looking more like a seasoned veteran than you would expect from someone with this little starting experience. He'll be in consideration in 2QB leagues and should be rostered in all formats.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Kyle Monangai Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Kyle Monangai

Dynasty | Bears running back D'Andre Swift had 58 rushing yards and lost a fumble in the Bears win over the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: Swift was benched in the game after losing a fumble and gave way to Kyle Monangai to take over. It's going to be very interesting to see how the Bears move on from this one as Swift has been dealing with a knee injury over the past two weeks anyway. At worst, this looks like a team that's going to be employing a committee backfield and while that's great in reality, it may not be pretty in fantasy. Swift's ADP is going to start to slide.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Kyle Monangai Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Kyle Monangai

Dynasty | Bears running back Kyle Monangai had 146 rushing yards, one catch, four receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: We've seen Monangai perform well before, so this wasn't a huge surprise. However, the apparent benching of D'Andre Swift after a lost fumble may have opened a door up for Monangai permanently. It's hard to argue with the results he seems to provide whenever given a chance and this looks like a committee backfield moving forward. The window to buy low on Monangai has slammed shut in dynasty leagues.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Jacoby Brissett Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Jacoby Brissett

Dynasty | Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. had one catch for 12 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Harrison scored his first touchdown of the season but that's where the good news ends. He now has just five catches for 85 yards and that touchdown on the season with just 13 total targets. Harrison's lack of production can be explained pretty easily - he's been targeted on just 8.5% of the passing plays by Arizona this year, making way for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson to take over. Jacoby Brissett simply isn't a player capable of making three players fantasy relevant and Harrison is clearly no better than third in the pecking order. He needs to find a new team to get off dynasty benches - his ADP and dynasty ranking are plummeting.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Tyler Allgeier Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Tyler Allgeier

Dynasty | Jeremiyah Love reportedly told coaches Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight should both play ahead of him because he is "not able to go out there and do spectacular plays every single time." Dynasty Analysis: Uh, say what!?! Love had a very candid interview with Arizona reporters that included him saying this is destined to be "the longest year of my life." This is clearly not what dynasty managers expected when they took him with the 1.01 in rookie drafts this season and tells a tale of a player who is clearly frustrated with his own health and possibly more right now. Love still has a bright future but there's something at play here as he may be dealing with some other injuries and quite possibly a confidence problem. Love is going to be a shaky proposition in lineups moving forward and anyone with him should likely look towards Tyler Allgeier as an insurance policy.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Chuba Hubbard Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Chuba Hubbard

Dynasty | Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard had 122 rushing yards, one catch, seven receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against the Lions. Dynasty Analysis: The Rodney Dangerfield, "I can't get no respect" annual award winner just continues to produce year after year. With Jonathon Brooks down yet again, Hubbard will continue to get work and we can expect he'll continue to churn out fantasy stats in the process. While not an elite-level player, Hubbard just gets the job done as a RB2 and should be a prime trade candidate for contending teams.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Tetairoa McMillan Oct 5 4:13pm ET
Tetairoa McMillan

Dynasty | Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan had 14 catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns in a win against Detroit. Dynasty Analysis: A week after catching two passes for just 17 yards, McMillan just shredded the Lions defense. While that seems to be happening often these days, McMillan still showed what dynasty managers have known for a while - he can put up WR1 numbers on any given week. This was a nice bounce-back performance from McMillan and hopefully the start of a solid run of good games. Any quick "buy low" window on McMillan has certainly closed.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

J.J. McCarthy Oct 5 4:10pm ET
J.J. McCarthy

New York Giants quarterback J.J. McCarthy could move into the No. 2 spot behind Jameis Winston this week. Head coach John Harbaugh told Pat Leonard on Monday that having McCarthy serve as the backup against Washington is a "possibility" and something that's "on the table." McCarthy was one of three active quarterbacks in Sunday's 36-24 win over Arizona, but the Giants weren't ready to make him the full-time backup only days after acquiring him from Minnesota. Jake Haener filled that role while McCarthy was available for a possible situational package that was never used. Winston remains the starter after throwing for 250 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals. A move ahead of Haener would still be another step for McCarthy as he gets more comfortable in the offense ahead of Sunday's game in Washington.

From RotoBaller

Mike Washington Jr. Oct 5 4:10pm ET
Mike Washington Jr.

Four games into his NFL career, Las Vegas Raiders rookie running back Mike Washington Jr. has recorded 24 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown. Washington Jr.'s workload has been limited by his RB2 status in Las Vegas behind running back Ashton Jeanty. However, Washington Jr. reached double-digit touches for the first time in the Raiders' Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Jeanty has also struggled with rushing efficiency for the second straight season, averaging 3.4 yards per carry so far in 2026 after averaging 3.7 yards per carry in 2025. For now, Washington Jr.'s fantasy upside is limited as long as Jeanty is healthy. Still, Washington Jr. is a premier handcuff running back option, and he may even work his way into some standalone value if Jeanty continues to struggle. In the vast majority of league formats, Washington Jr. should be rostered by fantasy managers heading into Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Rico Dowdle Oct 5 4:00pm ET
Rico Dowdle

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rico Dowdle (toe) is making progress after missing the past two games. Head coach Mike McCarthy told Nick Farabaugh on Monday that Dowdle is working his way back, though there still isn't a firm return date. Jaylen Warren has made the most of Dowdle's absence, piling up 302 scrimmage yards over the last two games while getting 17 carries in each. That workload could change once Dowdle is ready. McCarthy said he still expects the two backs to operate as a "one-two punch," pointing toward a shared backfield rather than Warren continuing to handle the same amount of work. Dowdle had 15 carries for 37 yards and four catches for 28 yards before the toe injury. His practice participation this week should give a better idea of when that committee might be back together.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Jackson Oct 5 3:50pm ET
Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (ankle) remains up in the air for Sunday night's game against the Atlanta Falcons. Head coach Jesse Minter told Jamison Hensley on Monday that he doesn't know Jackson's chances of playing yet, though he added that he doesn't expect the injury to be "crazy long-term." Jackson left Sunday's 24-18 win over Tennessee late in the second quarter and did not return. He had been sharp before the injury, completing 15 of 20 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns. Through four games, Jackson has thrown for 967 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception while adding 144 rushing yards and another score. Tyler Huntley finished the game in his place and would be the next option if Jackson can't go. For now, fantasy managers will need to watch how much work Jackson is able to do once Baltimore returns to practice.

From RotoBaller

Tee Higgins Oct 5 3:40pm ET
Tee Higgins

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (adductor) is considered day to day after leaving Sunday's loss to Jacksonville late in the fourth quarter. Head coach Zac Taylor told Paul Dehner on Monday that Higgins has not been ruled out for Week 5 and that the team will see where he is as the week goes on. Higgins tried to return for one play after the injury but could not continue. Before leaving, he had already put together his best game of the season, catching 11 passes for 157 yards on 16 targets. He now has 25 receptions for 401 yards and one touchdown through four games. Cincinnati visits Miami on Sunday before its Week 6 bye, so the next few practices should give a much better indication of whether Higgins can avoid missing time.

From RotoBaller

Ja'Marr Chase Oct 5 3:30pm ET
Ja'Marr Chase

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) remains in the league's concussion protocol after leaving Sunday's loss to Jacksonville. Head coach Zac Taylor told Jay Morrison on Monday that Chase is considered day to day, but there is still no timetable for his return. Chase was injured in the second quarter after taking a hard hit following a reception and did not return, finishing with three catches for 27 yards. He now has 21 receptions for 212 yards and three touchdowns through four games. Cincinnati visits Miami in Week 5, but Chase will need to clear the protocol before he can play. His status should become clearer once the Bengals return to practice later this week.

From RotoBaller

Tyreek Hill Oct 5 3:20pm ET
Tyreek Hill

Free-agent wide receiver Tyreek Hill appears headed toward a reunion with the Kansas City Chiefs. Ian Rapoport said Monday on NFL Network's The Aftermath that he expects Hill to sign with a team within the next few days and would be surprised if that team isn't Kansas City. Hill's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, had already confirmed that negotiations with multiple clubs were beginning Monday and that the Chiefs had stayed in contact. Nothing has been signed yet, but Kansas City's need at wide receiver grew quickly after Rashee Rice suffered a hamstring injury and Tyquan Thornton dislocated his ankle Sunday. Hill is still working back from the major left knee injury that ended his 2025 season and is reportedly targeting a November return to game action. RotoBaller has the 32-year-old at No. 55 in its Week 5 waiver rankings, making him a stash while the possible reunion continues to take shape.

From RotoBaller

Marvin Harrison Jr. Oct 5 2:40pm ET
Marvin Harrison Jr.

NFL teams are calling about the availability of Arizona Cardinals struggling wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. ahead of the Nov. 10 trade deadline, ESPN's Adam Schefter said on The Pat McAfee Show on Monday. Schefter mentioned the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants as two teams that are potentially interested in acquiring Harrison from the Cardinals. Harrison's father, Marvin Sr., played all 13 of his NFL seasons with the Colts before being inducted into the Hall of Fame. The 24-year-old former fourth overall pick from Ohio State in 2024 has not at all lived up to the hype that came attached to his name coming out of college, catching 103 passes for 1,493 yards and 12 touchdowns on 189 targets through his first two seasons in the desert. Through four games this year, Harrison has caught only five of 13 targets for 85 yards and one touchdown for the Cardinals. He found the end zone for the first time in 2026 in Sunday's loss to the Giants, but he caught just one of his four targets for 12 yards. A change of scenery might be the only thing to bring his fantasy football value up from rock bottom at this point early on in his third season in the NFL.

From RotoBaller

Joe Mixon Oct 5 2:30pm ET
Joe Mixon

Free-agent running back Joe Mixon is working out for the Seattle Seahawks on Monday afternoon, a source told Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. Mixon missed the entire 2025 season with the Houston Texans due to a mysterious foot injury, but the 30-year-old veteran is apparently recovered and ready to join a new team for the 2026 campaign. It would be a curious fit with the reigning Super Bowl champions, as they already have rookie first-rounder Jadarian Price, George Holani, and Emanuel Wilson, with Zach Charbonnet (knee) eventually returning from the torn ACL that he suffered in the postseason in January. Even if Mixon were to find himself in a significant role with the next team he signs with, he will likely take a while to get his legs under him, and he could also be a shell of the former RB that he was before his foot injury. The former second-round pick by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2017 from Oklahoma has had plenty of success in the NFL in his eight years, though, reaching the 1,000-yard rushing mark five times while scoring 60 rushing touchdowns over 111 total games. Mixon is merely a speculative deep-league stash as he gets close to re-emerging in the NFL.

From RotoBaller