Week 6 MNF: Bills-Falcons Preview, Props, Prediction

Mon Oct 13 3:07pm ET
Field Level Media

The Buffalo Bills will try to avoid losing sole possession of first place in the AFC East when they travel to Atlanta on Monday night to take on the Falcons, who have been one of the most unpredictable teams through the first quarter of the NFL season.

At 4-1, the Bills are only a half-game ahead of the surprising New England Patriots, who handed Buffalo its first loss of the season on a last-second field goal last week. The Falcons rebounded for an impressive win against the Washington Commanders following a confounding 30-0 shutout loss at Carolina.

ODDS AND TRENDS

Despite the Falcons being at home and well rested coming off their bye week, the Bills are a consensus 3.5-point favorite. That includes at BetRivers, where Buffalo has been backed by 62 percent of the spread-line money and 78 percent of the total bets.

Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games as underdogs against AFC teams. By contrast, Buffalo has won seven of its past eight games following a loss, and the Bills' -200 moneyline at BetRivers to win the game outright has drawn 93 percent of the money and 94 percent of the total bets.

The 50-point total points line has also been a popular play, with the Over drawing 85 percent of the money. That's despite each of the Falcons' past nine home games against AFC opponents having gone Under the total points line.

PROP PICKS

--Bills QB Josh Allen 15+ Rushing Yards (-750 at DraftKings): This has been the game's most popular player prop at the book, followed by Allen rushing for 25+ yards at -240. While Allen doesn't take off downfield as much as he did in his first few seasons, he is still averaging 42.5 rushing yards per game this season and has had at least 25 in each one.

--Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-167 at BetRivers): Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in five consecutive home games and is going against a Bills defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in allowing an average of 145.6 rushing yards per game.

THE NEWS

It has been more than a calendar year since Buffalo's last losing streak, and the road won't get easier Monday. Atlanta leads the NFL in total defense (244 yards per game) and touts a promising backfield duo in Robinson and quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

"(Robinson) looks like he's going to be a real handful," Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott said. "Very explosive. Really good football player and really hard to stop. He looks like he's got a real bright future. ... (Penix) knows the offense like the back of his hand. He's extremely detailed in how he runs their offense and certainly has a great running game to accompany the talent and skills that he brings to the table."

Monday will mark Allen's first game in Atlanta in his seven-plus seasons. The Falcons are one of three teams he has faced only once, along with the Panthers and Chicago Bears.

Fresh off a 14-day break, Atlanta will be looking for a signature victory in its first "Monday Night Football" home game in seven years. The Falcons beat the New York Giants 23-20 on Oct. 22, 2018.

The Falcons' defense has been far from their strong suit for several years, but Atlanta's identity has changed through four games under Jeff Ulbrich -- the team's fourth defensive coordinator in as many years.

"On defense we're playing fast. We're playing physical," Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. "We're a good tackling team. They're competitive, which I love."

As the defense tries to help Atlanta post its first set of consecutive wins this season, the unit will be handed its biggest test: trying to slow Buffalo's Allen, a three-time Pro Bowl selection. Allen has passed for 1,217 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions, and rushed 40 times for 212 yards and three TDs in five games.

"He's turned himself into arguably the best player in the league," Morris said. "It's definitely a challenge for us, but it's something that we embrace, something that we love."

INJURY REPORT

Atlanta will get a key member of its defense back, as cornerback A.J. Terrell is slated to return for the first time since exiting with a hamstring injury in the Falcons' Week 2 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. He was a full participant in practice on Saturday.

Injury-hampered wide receiver Darnell Mooney (hamstring) was ruled out ahead of the contest after not practicing all week. Cornerback Clark Phillips III (triceps/illness) and defensive tackle LaCale London (tricep) were also ruled out for Atlanta.

Buffalo, meanwhile, placed safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral) and rookie defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.

Star linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) escaped IR, but has still been ruled out for Monday.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid (oblique) and wide receiver Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs) are questionable after being limited participants in practice across the week.

THEY SAID IT

"The message after a loss is continuing to trust our process, not to be focused so much on the results. Obviously, we didn't play as well as we would've liked to play last week, and that's going to happen. Fortunately we've got another week. We get a chance to play Monday night in a really fun environment in Atlanta with a team that's coming off a bye but playing really good football. It's an opportunity for us to take a step in the right direction." -- Allen, who has an 80-35 career record as a starter.

PREDICTION

There has been a Jekyll & Hyde element to the start of the Falcons' season. They are rested and at home coming off a bye week, so that should serve Atlanta well. The Falcons also enter with the league's top-rated defense in yards allowed at an average of just 244.0 per game, so look for this to be a stiff test if Penix plays well on the other side of the ball. Ultimately, the edge goes to Allen's ability to make critical plays with the game on the line. -- Bills 27, Falcons 24

Week 6 MNF: Bills-Falcons Preview, Props, Prediction

The Paur Report