Gray carries some risk this week

There was a flurry of activity through baseball’s trade deadline Thursday. With teams having made moves for the stretch run, we will see shakeups to starting rotations across the league. As things currently stand, here are five pitchers who are projected to make two starts each during Week 20.

Max Fried, New York Yankees: at TEX, vs. HOU

The Yankees defense hasn’t helped Fried. He allowed four runs over 6 2/3 innings against the Rays in his last start, but only two of them were earned. While he has allowed 22 runs over 33 innings in his last six starts, only 16 of those runs have been earned. Helping Fried and fantasy managers who drafted him this season has been his 1.03 WHIP.

Fried will begin Week 20 with a favorable matchup versus the Rangers, who have scored the ninth-fewest runs in baseball. They also have the third-lowest OPS against left-handed pitchers. The Astros have a more dangerous lineup, but it is compromised right now with Yordan Alvarez (hand) and Isaac Paredes (hamstring) out. The Yankees’ defense is always an issue, but Fried could still produce two excellent stat lines.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners: vs. CWS, vs. TB

Woo was hit hard in his last start, allowing five runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Athletics. He gave up four home runs along the away, bringing him up to 20 home runs allowed in 133 innings this year. Last season, he only allowed 14 home runs across 121 1/3 innings. Helping limit the damage has been his 0.97 WHIP. Even with his home run issues, he has a 3.11 ERA that is backed by a 3.22 xERA.

Woo’s first opponent in Week 20 will be a White Sox team that has scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball. The Rays have a .755 OPS at home this season, but they only have a .680 OPS on the road. They also recently lost one of their best hitters in Jonathan Aranda (wrist), who is expected to miss several weeks. Woo isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher, given his 24.2% strikeout rate. Still, his low ratios and two great matchups leave him with tremendous upside.

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers: vs. NYY, vs. PHI

After missing nearly two weeks with a back issue, Eovaldi has looked sharp over two starts since making his return. He allowed a total of one run over 12 innings against the Braves and Angels. He also produced 11 combined strikeouts. His 1.49 ERA likely isn’t sustainable, but he has a good xERA of 3.25 and he has allowed just 0.4 HR/9.

The Yankees and Phillies are two difficult matchups. The Yankees have scored the third-most runs in baseball, while the Phillies have scored the 11th-most runs. However, working in Eovaldi’s favor is that he will be starting both games at his pitcher-friendly home park. Since joining the Rangers in 2023, he has posted a 3.38 xFIP and a 1.03 WHIP at home. Don’t think about benching him in 12-team or deeper leagues.

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals: at LAD, vs. CHC

Across his first 13 starts this season, Gray had a 3.35 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Since then, he has a 6.07 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over his last nine starts. He has not logged more than five innings in any of his last five starts and he has allowed five home runs over his last three outings. His recent rough stretch has left him with a 1.22 WHIP, which is on pace to be his highest mark since 2021.

Gray is still missing bats with his 26.4% strikeout rate and he has a long track record of success, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him turn things around at some point. However, these two matchups likely won’t help matters. The Dodgers and Cubs both rank inside the top three in baseball in runs scored and OPS. This is the week to bench Gray.

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. BAL, at TEX

Luzardo exploited a bad White Sox lineup in his last start, logging seven scoreless innings. Luzardo has shown plenty of upside, including not allowing a run in two of his last four starts. However, his lack of control can be a problem. In his last eight starts, he has walked 20 batters over 42 1/3 innings. His 1.37 WHIP has contributed to his 4.31 ERA, but his 3.61 xERA indicates that he has pitched well, overall. Another big plus is that Luzardo has increased his strikeout rate from 21.2% last season to 27.1% this year.

Luzardo is set to face two teams that struggle against left-handed pitchers in the Orioles and Rangers. The Orioles have a .656 OPS against southpaws, while the Rangers have a .633 OPS against them. Also appealing for Luzardo is that the Orioles have struck out the 10th-most times in baseball. Despite his recent walk issues, this is a great week to roll with Luzardo in fantasy.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.