Nola is a risky play this week

There aren’t many off days built into Week 25. That means most teams in baseball have at least one pitcher who is lined up to make two starts for the week. Let’s highlight five of them and discuss what their matchups might mean for their fantasy production.

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox: at ATH, vs. NYY

It was a rare rough performance from Crochet in his last start. Over six innings against the Guardians, he allowed seven runs and four home runs. What was especially odd is that the Guardians are tied for the ninth-fewest home runs in baseball this season. Prior to that performance, Crochet had allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last nine outings. Even with his recent dud, he has a 2.67 ERA and a 3.13 xERA for the season.

Crochet misses a ton of bats, generating a 30.5% strikeout rate. That makes him especially appealing for his two matchups this week. The Yankees have struck out the sixth-most times in baseball, while the Athletics have struck out the 11th-most times. The Yankees have scored a lot of runs, but not against Crochet. In three previous starts against them, Crochet has allowed seven runs and posted 27 strikeouts across 21 1/3 innings. His upside is extremely high for Week 25.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants: vs. ARI, vs. LAD

Webb has racked up at least seven strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. He has increased his strikeout rate from 20.5% last season to 26.3% this year. That has helped him produce a 3.17 ERA and a 3.67 xERA. One of his biggest strengths is keeping hitters inside the ballpark. He has allowed 0.7 HR/9 this season, which is right in line with his career mark of 0.6 HR/9 allowed.

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both rank inside the top six in baseball in home runs and runs scored. They are not easy matchups, but playing both of these games in San Francisco is a positive for Webb. He has a 2.64 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP at home. Don’t overthink this one. Keep Webb locked into fantasy starting lineups.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. NYM, vs. KC

Nola turned in another disastrous stat line in his last outing, allowing six runs over five innings against the Brewers. Since being activated from the IL, he has allowed 19 runs (18 earned) across 19 1/3 innings. Not only did he give up four home runs during that span, but he also produced a 1.50 WHIP. He now has a 6.78 ERA and a 4.91 xERA for the season, to go along with his 1.51 WHIP.

The Mets have scored the ninth-most runs in baseball this season and have one of the best hitters in the league playing at his best right now in Juan Soto. The Royals aren’t exactly scary, considering that they have the seventh-worst OPS in baseball. However, it doesn’t really matter who Nola is facing right now. Until he shows signs of turning things around, he can’t be started in fantasy.

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres: vs. CIN, vs. COL

Darvish has pitched four innings and allowed four runs in three of his last four starts. He has not thrown more than 87 pitches in a start this season as the Padres have been cautious with his workload. His 1.18 WHIP for the season is good, but his main problem has been giving up nine home runs across just 51 2/3 innings.

If there is a bright spot with Darvish, it’s that he has a 4.22 xFIP and a 1.03 WHIP at home. On the road, he has a 4.52 xFIP and a 1.33 WHIP. Not only will both of his starts be in San Diego next week, but he will face two teams that have contact issues. The Rockies have struck out the second-most times in baseball, while the Reds have struck out the ninth-most. As bad as Darvish has been lately, he’s a viable streaming option because of these two home matchups.

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates: at BAL, at WAS

Ashcraft struggled with control in his last outing, walking four batters over three innings against the Dodgers. However, he didn’t allow a run, thanks to limiting the Dodgers to just two hits. Over 55 1/3 innings in the majors, Ashcraft has allowed only 47 hits. That can at least be partially attributed to him holding opponents to a 3.2% barrel rate.

The Orioles have struck out the seventh-most times in baseball, giving Ashcraft an opportunity to improve on his 22.7% strikeout rate. While the Nationals don’t strike out much, they have the fifth-lowest OPS. Ashcraft has not thrown more than 73 pitches in a start, so it will be difficult for him to last much more than five innings if that continues. Still, two promising matchups give him enough potential to be worth starting in 12-team and deeper formats.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.