Burns has risk but huge upside

Our pitching primer column is back for another season. Each week, we’ll dig into five two-start pitchers and discuss what their matchups might mean for their fantasy baseball production. Let’s dig into some pitchers who are projected to take the mound two times each during Week 2.

Max Fried, New York Yankees: at SEA, vs. MIA

Fried helped the Yankees get off to a strong start to the season, throwing 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Giants in their opener. He allowed only two hits and one walk while recording four strikeouts. He also did a great job of keeping men off base last season, recording a 1.10 WHIP during his first campaign with the Yankees.

Whenever Fried receives two starts in the same week, he can be a difference maker in fantasy. He hasn’t finished a season with an xERA over 3.84 since 2018. He also has a career 1.15 WHIP. His first start of Week 2 will be at the Mariners’ pitcher-friendly home park. His second will come at home versus a Marlins team that hit the fourth-fewest home runs in baseball last year. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds: vs. PIT, at TEX

After being selected in the first round of the 2024 Draft, Burns made his way to the majors last year. He only had a 4.57 ERA over 43 1/3 innings, but his 3.46 xERA and 2.68 xFIP indicate that he didn’t pitch that poorly. He was a bit unlucky, given his .360 BABIP allowed. Prior to being called up, Burns had a 1.77 ERA and a 1.97 xFIP in the minors.

Burns comes with tremendous strikeout upside. He had a 36.8% strikeout rate in the minors and a 35.6% strikeout rate with the Reds last year.  He could rack up plenty of strikeouts against the Pirates, who had the seventh-most strikeouts in baseball last. The Rangers didn’t swing and miss as much, but they had the fifth-lowest OPS. Be sure to lock Burns into your starting lineup.

Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs: vs. LAA, at CLE

Cabrera took a significant step forward with the Marlins last year. He threw 137 2/3 innings, topping 100 innings for the first time in his career. His 8.3% walk rate was by far the lowest mark of his career and was the main reason for his improved WHIP of 1.23. His 3.53 ERA was backed by a 3.62 xFIP and his strikeout rate was a respectable 25.8%. The Marlins cashed in on his success, trading him to the Cubs in the offseason.

Two favorable matchups await Cabrera. First up is the Angels, who struck out the most times in baseball last year. Then he will face the Guardians, who finished with the second-worst OPS. Neither team significantly improved their lineup since then. If anything, the Angels might have a worse lineup after trading Taylor Ward to the Orioles. The stars could be aligning for Cabrera to provide two valuable starts for fantasy managers.

Clay Holmes, New York Mets: at STL, at SF

Holmes successfully converted from a reliever to a starter last year, throwing 165 2/3 innings for the Mets. His 18.2% strikeout rate was significantly lower than what he produced as a reliever, but he finished with a 3.53 ERA. However, his xERA was 4.33 and his xFIP was 4.25. For fantasy purposes, he should be viewed as a viable streaming option for when he has a favorable matchup.

The Cardinals are a rebuilding team that weakened their roster by moving on from Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado during the offseason. They already struggled at the plate last year, producing the sixth-lowest OPS in baseball. The Giants have a pitcher-friendly home park and also have holes in their lineup that contributed to them having the ninth-worst OPS last season. This is one of those weeks to consider streaming Holmes.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros: vs. BOS, at ATH

The big plus for McCullers was just pitching again last year. He logged 55 1/3 innings with the Astros, which was the first time he appeared in the majors since 2022. His return from injury wasn’t a triumphant one as he finished with a 6.51 ERA, 5.33 xERA and 5.12 xFIP. He showed a lack of control, posting a 14.2% walk rate.

With a normal offseason under his belt, McCullers could work his way into streaming consideration for fantasy. For his career, he has a 3.70 ERA that is back by a 3.77 xERA. However, these two matchups make him someone to avoid. The Red Sox have dangerous young hitters in Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran. The Athletics are also loaded with young hitters on the rise, and they play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. McCullers could tank ratios for fantasy managers, so be sure to keep him out of your lineup.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.