Peralta has tough matchups

Coming out of the All-Star break, every team will play either six or seven games during Week 18. Some rotations aren’t set in stone yet, but we still have plenty of projected two-start pitchers to examine. Let’s highlight five of them and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy production.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. TB, at BOS

Gausman hit a bit of a rough patch heading into the All-Star break. Over his last five starts, he has a 7.46 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. Control was an issue with him walking 16 batters across 25 1/3 innings. Even with those starts factored in, he only has a 6.8% walk rate and a 1.22 WHIP for the season. He has already made 20 starts, putting him on pace to make at least 30 starts for the sixth straight year.

Gausman will face two AL East foes in Week 18. The Rays are atop the standings in the division, but they are tied for 16th in runs scored in baseball. He will have the luxury of facing them at home, where he has a 1.06 WHIP this year. The matchup versus the Red Sox will be on the road, but they have scored the third-fewest runs in the majors. Despite his recent struggles, Gausman can shine in these two outings.

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets: at MIL, vs. LAD

Peralta is likely on the trade block with the Mets falling out of the playoff hunt. His 4.66 ERA doesn’t look good, but his 3.82 xERA indicates that he hasn’t pitched that poorly. For his career, he has a 3.69 ERA and a 3.41 xERA. The main concern for fantasy managers is that his strikeout rate has fallen to 22.3%, which is in stark contrast to his career strikeout rate of 29.1%.

In his first start of Week 18, Peralta will face his former team in the Brewers for the first time. They are tied for the ninth-highest OPS in baseball and they have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate. Following that is another difficult matchup versus the Dodgers, who are third in runs scored and have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Peralta is too good of a pitcher to bench during a two-start week, but it might be wise to lower expectations for his final results in these two matchups.

Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels: vs. STL, at SF

Soriano is another starter who could be on the move at the trade deadline. He has been a bright spot for the struggling Angels, recording a 3.49 ERA over 20 starts. However, there are some red flags. His xERA isn’t nearly as impressive at 4.34. He also has an 11.4% walk rate, which has left him with a 1.29 WHIP despite him only giving up 90 hits over 111 innings.

Neither the Cardinals nor the Giants have scary lineups. St. Louis is 15th in runs scored 20th in OPS. The Giants are 24th in runs scored and 12th in OPS. Facing the Giants on the road is a plus for Soriano because they only have a .704 OPS in San Francisco. Regression could be coming for Soriano at some point during the second half, but these upcoming matchups still make him someone worth starting in most formats.

Will Warren, New York Yankees: vs. PIT, at PHI

The Yankees remain without Max Fried (elbow) and Carlos Rodon (elbow) in their starting rotation. That means they will continue to need innings from Warren, who has already made 19 starts. He’s not a fantasy standout, producing a 4.03 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He also has just a 22.4% strikeout, so he’s more in the category of a streamer who it is best to only deploy when he has a favorable matchup.

Warren has been much better at home than on the road. For his career, he has a 3.41 xFIP and a 1.31 WHIP at home, compared to a 4.48 xFIP and a 1.53 WHIP on the road. He will face the Pirates at Yankee Stadium, but they are tied for the most runs scored in baseball. Following that is a road matchup against a Phillies team that has the eighth-highest home OPS in the majors. This might be a week to stay away from Warren in 12-team leagues.

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds: at SEA, at STL

It has been a rough season for Abbott, who has shown a lack of control on the mound. After posting a 6.3% walk rate last year, he has a 10.5% mark this season. That has left him with a bloated 1.42 WHIP. Never one to miss a ton of bats, even his 18.4% strikeout rate is on pace to be the lowest mark of his career. Given his limited margin for error, Abbott will need to cut down on the walks if he is going to finish the season on a high note.

Despite his struggles, Abbott could be worth taking a chance on next week. The Mariners have a .631 OPS versus left-handed pitchers, which is the lowest mark in baseball. Neither the Mariners nor the Cardinals hit for much power against southpaws. The Mariners have a .122 ISO against them, while the Cardinals haven’t been much better with a .141 ISO. Avoid Abbott in 10-team leagues, but he’s worth starting in 12-team and deeper formats.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.