Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 19 8:54am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Collins is playing at high level

I think I have said this in past columns but this season is just flying along. Crazy. Hopefully, you are sitting pretty and ready to make a long playoff run. At this point, you have a pretty good idea of what is happening in your leagues with just a few weeks left. As always, plan ahead for some of these crucial remaining games. Get those defenses and kickers with favorable matchups before the week of their games. A proactive owner is usually a winning owner. Good luck the rest of the way!

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I would just steer clear of the Broncos backfield right now. I don’t trust it. RJ Harvey played the most snaps out of the backs last week (61 percent), but didn’t do much with that work. I probably like him the most because of his pass-catching ability but I don’t like that Jaleel McLaughlin started getting more playing time late in that game. And Tyler Badie was involved as well. This is likely to be a hot-hand approach, making it a tough call to start any of these guys on a weekly basis. You just don’t know which one will emerge each week.

I find it funny the difference between fantasy and reality when it comes to Justin Fields. He has been pretty awful all season and just lost his starting job. But even with that said, he has 20-plus fantasy points five of nine games. He has produced some big games for his fantasy owners, showing you the disconnect between actual play on the field and fantasy numbers. Just something to keep in mind when drafting players.

I’m excited to see what Tyler Shough does the rest of the season. He is coming out of his bye and his best game of the season. I like some of his matchups the rest of the season (Falcons, Dolphins, Panthers, Jets), so he has some fantasy potential if he keeps making progress. He is a player I’m going to keep an eye on the rest of the year.

The tight end position continues to be a tough one. You just don’t know what you are going to get from many of these guys from week to week. Outside of Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, I don’t think there is anyone you can really trust to post good numbers every week. It has been another frustrating season for fantasy owners at the tight end position. This makes you want to target one of these elite guys next year so you don’t have to deal with the headache on a weekly basis.

Many thought Drake Maye would have a breakout season this year but I’m not sure anyone thought he was going to have the season he is currently having. He is third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has eight of 11 games with 20-plus fantasy points. Maye just looks so cool in the pocket. Nothing rattles him and he does such a great job of spreading the ball around to a host of receivers. And he already throws one of the best deep balls in the game in year two. I can’t imagine what he is going to do once he gets a legit, elite No. 1 receiver on his side. Maye is something special.

News and Notes: Receiver Odell Beckham was officially reinstated by the commissioner on Tuesday. Beckham remains a free agent and is free to sign with any team.

HOT PLAYS

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker continues to split work with Zach Charbonnet, but is getting a good amount of work. He has 15-plus touches two straight and double-digit rush attempts every game this season. Walker can have that big game any given week with that amount of work. He can build on his big game last week against the Titans in Week 12. Tennessee allows the eighth most fantasy points to running backs, giving up 130-plus rushing yards three of four games. This unit has struggled against the run all year.

Nico Collins, WR, Texans. Collins is playing his best football of the season right now. He is third overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He has at least seven receptions all three of those games. He is hitting his stride at a good time for fantasy owners. He plays the Bills this week, a team that does pretty well against the pass but could jump out to a lead on the Texans, causing them to throw more. Look for Collins to rack up the targets once again. Don’t get scared by the matchup.

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had one of his worst games of the season last week. He missed on a lot of the passes he normally makes and scored just a touchdown. But the conditions weren’t great in this game, dealing with a lot of wind, and the matchup was tough against a good Eagles defense. We look for Goff to rebound this week. Remember, he had 22-plus fantasy points two straight before last week. And he plays the Giants, a team that allows the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots. Henderson has multiple touchdowns two straight games and 12-plus fantasy points three straight. He is finally showing that potential that made him such a high draft pick in fantasy leagues his rookie year. Rhamondre Stevenson could be back sooner than later, but it sure seems Henderson should keep starting and getting double-digit touches. As long as that happens, look for Henderson to keep producing big. He might have another monster game this week against the Bengals, a team that allows the most fantasy points to running backs. The Bengals have allowed 250-plus rushing yards two of three games.

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions. Williams has the fourth most fantasy points at receiver his last three games. He is starting to flourish, especially with Dan Campbell now calling plays. Williams has touchdowns three straight and four of five games. He has 19-plus points two straight. He is getting more chances overall - not just as a deep threat. Williams is showing an expanded route tree and making the most of his chances. He can have another big game this week against the Giants, a team that allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers.

COLD PLAYS

Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield isn’t having quite the season you are accustomed to from him. He has less than 175-passing yards two of three games and less than 15 fantasy points two of four. He isn’t showing the same consistency as past years, but all the injuries at receiver for him is not helping matters. Mayfield can only do so much on his own. We think he might have another so-so showing this week against the Rams, a team that allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Rams have allowed fewer than 200-passing yards four times this season.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers. Doubs might play the most of any Packers receiver but that doesn’t always lead to great production. He got eight targets last week but still managed to score fewer than double-digit fantasy points. He has fewer than double-digit points two straight and three of four games. Doubs is not a plug-and-play option for fantasy teams. And a game this week against the Vikings is not a great time to use him. Minnesota allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers and just held both the Ravens and Bears passing attacks to less than 200-passing yards.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders. Jeanty ran just six times for seven yards last week. It was his worst rushing game of the season. The only positive is he had a career-best six receptions. This salvaged his fantasy day a little. But even with that said, you have to worry about Jeanty’s production and workload in this offense. He has been more up and down than you would like. And he could have a down game this week against the Browns. Cleveland allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Browns have allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards five of 10 games.

James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook has cooled just a little since his great start to the season. He is 13th overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games. He has less than 55-rushing yards two straight. He is still having a good overall season, ranking sixth overall in fantasy running back scoring, but showing he isn’t immune to the so-so showing. We like him to have one of those ho-hum games this week against a great Texans defense. Houston has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards all but three games this year. And they have allowed less than 20 points three of four games.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys. Ferguson is having a solid overall season but becoming a little more touchdown-dependent lately. He does not have more than 50 yards in a game since Week 3. If he doesn’t find the end zone, he can bust. And we aren’t sure he scores this week against the Eagles. The Eagles allow the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Philadelphia has allowed just 16 points the last two games against high-powered offenses (Packers and Lions).

SLEEPERS

Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. Young had maybe the best game of his career last week, throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover against a pretty solid Falcons pass defense. It was an impressive performance from Young, who had fewer than six fantasy points two straight games before last week. Hopefully, this game gets Young going and he starts to show more consistency going forward. He is setup for another solid game this week against the 49ers, a team that allowed 452-passing yards to the Cardinals last week. San Francisco allows the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Devin Neal, RB, Saints. Neal is getting more work these days, playing at least 35 percent of the snaps three straight games. He has three receptions two of those games. And with the Saints coming out of a bye, it would not surprise to see them try to get the rookie more involved offensively to see what they have with him. And if he can get around double-digit touches this week against the Falcons, look for Neal to do well. Atlanta allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs. They gave up 323-rushing yards just two weeks back.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns. Jeudy is finally starting to get a few more looks, having 19 targets his last two games. He had just three receptions last week but you have to like the seven looks he had in the game. And if Shedeur Sanders starts, that might be a positive for Jeudy because he will likely push the ball down the field more than Dillon Gabriel. Jeudy could get some chances to break some big plays against a bad Raiders secondary. Las Vegas allows the second most fantasy points to receivers and 30-plus points three of four games.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans. Spears played the most snaps at running back for the Titans last week and had a season-high five receptions. His work in the passing game is really helping his floor right now, having at least three receptions five straight games. He still isn’t producing great numbers for fantasy teams, but does have at least 8.4 fantasy points those five games. It isn’t terribly by any means. And if the Titans hope to have success offensively this week against a good Seahawks defense, it likely will be on the ground. The Seahawks have allowed at least 119-rushing yards three straight games.

Andrei Iosivas, WR, Bengals. Iosivas is likely the biggest benefactor from the Ja’Marr Chase one-game suspension this week. He should slot into the starting role opposite Tee Higgins. And he could rack up some targets in a game that Bengals could be throwing often to keep up with the high-powered Patriots offense. Iosivas has some fantasy potential to do good things in Week 12. He already has two games this year with 13-plus fantasy points as the third option in this passing game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Colts/Chiefs, Giants/Lions, Patriots/Bengals, Jaguars/Cardinals, Eagles/Cowboys, Bucs/Rams, Panthers/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: Seahawks/Titans, Browns/Raiders, Falcons/Saints.

Bye Weeks: Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins, Commanders.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 12

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