RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 16

Fri Dec 19 4:31pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

There are no shortage of important matchups for Week 16. In addition to playoff spots being on the line, we also have some money to win in DFS. Here are some players to consider at each position, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, LAC at DAL ($6,000): It has been a quiet stretch for Herbert, who has 500 passing yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions over three games since the Chargers had their bye. As underwhelming as he has been, the Cowboys are always a team to consider attacking in DFS. Not only have the Cowboys allowed the most passing yards per game in the league, but they have also given up the second-most points per game.

J.J. McCarthy, MIN at NYG ($4,900): McCarthy had two favorable matchups against the Commanders and Cowboys the last two weeks. He emerged from them with six total touchdowns. This is another great spot for him versus the Giants, who are tied for the sixth-most fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks.

Player to Avoid

Trevor Lawrence, JAX at DEN ($5,900): Lawrence broke the slate last week with 330 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, 51 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. That was his fourth straight game with multiple touchdowns. As good as he has been, the Broncos are a difficult matchup. On their way to allowing just 18.6 points per game, they have given up only 14 passing touchdowns all season.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, ATL at ARI ($8,700): In an upset victory over the Buccaneers last week, Robinson ran 19 times for 93 yards and a touchdown. He also caught eight of 11 targets for 82 yards. That was the fourth time over the last five games that he received at least 19 carries. With Kirk Cousins starting at quarterback, the Falcons will likely continue to rely heavily on Robinson down the stretch. His upside is incredibly high against a Cardinals team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.

Aaron Jones Sr., MIN at NYG ($5,200): Jones and Jordan Mason have been splitting carries for the Vikings. That’s not great for either of them in DFS. Still, Jones has come away with at least 65 total yards in back-to-back games. The Giants have given up 5.89 yards per carry to running backs and are tied for the second-most receptions allowed to the position. At his cheap salary, Jones is worth the risk in tournament play.

Player to Avoid

Derrick Henry, BAL vs. NE ($7,100): Henry ran for 100 yards despite only receiving 11 carries against the Bengals in Week 15. Carries aren’t usually an issue for him, but his average yards per rush attempt has dropped from 5.9 yards last season to 4.8 yards this year. The Patriots have limited running backs to 3.77 yards per carry and have given up a total of just seven touchdowns to the position. Given his salary, this might be a rare week in which avoiding Henry makes sense.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, MIN at NYG ($6,000): Even in a great matchup against the Cowboys, Jefferson posted only two receptions for 22 yards. However, his eight targets were his most in a game since Week 11. His salary has come down considerably since the beginning of the season, and it’s to the point where he is interesting again. As one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, there is the potential that he gets back on track in a favorable matchup against the Giants’ porous defense.

Jauan Jennings, SF at IND ($5,400): Jennings only had three receptions for 37 yards last week, but he scored two touchdowns against the Titans. That marked the fifth time over the last six games that he has reached the end zone. His teammate Ricky Pearsall emerged from the game with an ankle injury that clouds his status for Monday. If he sits, Jennings could receive added targets. Even if he plays, Jennings is appealing because the Colts have allowed the most receptions to wide receivers in the league.

Player to Avoid

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at DEN ($5,400): The Broncos have given up 6.67 yards per target to wide receivers, which is the third-lowest mark in the NFL. They have also allowed just five touchdowns to the position, which is the fewest in the league. Thomas has already been limited to four or fewer receptions in each of his last five games, so this matchup likely won’t help him provide value in DFS.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts Sr., ATL at ARI ($5,000): Cousins taking over at quarterback seems to have helped Pitts greatly. He has three straight games with at least six receptions and 82 receiving yards. Last week, he demolished the Buccaneers for 11 receptions, 166 yards and three touchdowns. The Cardinals are tied for the sixth-most fantasy points allowed per game to tight ends, leaving Pitts in a favorable position to remain productive.

Darren Waller, MIA vs. CIN ($3,500): The Dolphins have made a change at quarterback, benching Tua Tagovailoa in favor of Quinn Ewers. That might not exactly be ideal for Waller, who had two touchdowns versus the Steelers last week. However, the Bengals have allowed the most receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns to tight ends in the league. Waller’s salary is cheap enough to consider taking a chance on him.

Player to Avoid

Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. LAC ($4,400): Ferguson recorded only two receptions for 16 yards against the Vikings last week. He has fewer than 50 receiving yards in eight of his last 11 games. The Chargers have permitted the fifth-fewest receptions to tight ends, which doesn’t make Ferguson a very appealing DFS option.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 16

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